Good morning Bay Islands. I know it looks like a monster is eating us at 6:45 a.m., but this is actually a storm system moving in from the east. And its bark is worse than it’s bite. These clouds have been over Guanaja for over an hour, and it has received only about .13 of an inch. Most of the rain in this storm in north of us this morning, but we will have scattered showers today after many of us got 1 to 1.5 inches of rain yesterday.

The air overhead gets quite a bit drier starting tomorrow so rain chances will be low the rest of the week, with a consistent east wind around 20 mph and seas 3 feet.

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Our tides continue to be quite low at 3:45 p.m. Have a great Wednesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. We have quite a bit of cloud cover, but not a lot of rain this morning. The exception is Utila which is seeing a bit of sun at 6:30 a.m. The forecast is still calling for scattered showers today and tomorrow with east winds 15-25 mph and seas 3-4 feet.

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The tide will be quite low at 3 p.m. Have a great Tuesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Melanie Cooper who captured this double rainbow over Oakridge Cay. There might be another one today. In the last hour (6-7 a.m.) about a tenth of an inch has fallen on Camp Bay and Diamond Rock after about a half inch yesterday. The west side has gotten much less rain. All of us should get plenty of rain this week.

Here’s the 7 a.m. satellite and you can see thicker clouds over the east side of the island. Rain amounts should be low today with partly cloudy skies. Rain chances are a little better tomorrow and really good Tuesday through Thursday, with periods of downpours likely.

Here’s the GFS model of rainfall through Thursday. You can tell there will be A LOT of rain over what I call our rainfall factory on the Mosquito Coast. As it moves west these storms often weaken, but this forecast is still calling for about three inches of rain for us.

Trade winds today through Thursday will remain fairly strong, around 20 mph and seas 3-5 feet.

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The tide will be super-low a little after 1 p.m. Have a great Sunday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day shows a ray of light coming through the clouds over Infinity Bay. Manny Selva took it while visiting the island with his wife Judi and their kids and grandkids.
We haven’t seen many rays of light this morning, but Utila finally got a big rain that its been waiting for a couple of months.

In this satellite image taken at 6 a.m., you would think all the islands were getting a good rain, but you can see the clouds to the west are more intense, with ridges at the top that indicate deeper convection and therefore more intense rain. The west side has only gotten a few hundredths of an inch this morning while …

… on radar you can see lots of rain toward Utila at 6 a.m. It has decreased in intensity as of 7 a.m. but still some showers are falling. Pumpkin Hill on North Utila has gotten almost 2 inches while most other stations on the island have gotten almost an inch. This storm should continue weakening as the morning goes on, but we will keep a chance of scattered showers through the day and into tomorrow morning. Partly cloudy skies and an occasional shower will continue into the first part of the weekend. Right now Sunday and Monday look like our best chance at completely dry days.

If anyone knows how to dodge the raindrops, it is Jolly Roger Roatan, who will find a quiet cove for your island excursion and get you back on board ship right on time.

Trade winds from the east will continue to be around 15 mph and 3 foot seas days and 20 mph and 4 foot seas overnights.

Low tide is 9:40 a.m. Have a great Wednesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our satellite this morning looks very similar to yesterday, with mostly high cirrus clouds and a few popcorn clouds to our south at 7:30 p.m. Our forecast is dry through the weekend with typical easterly trade winds 15-20 mph and seas 3-4 feet. We had a question about El Nino’s effect on our weather,

This is a nice summary of the effects of El Nino (this year is supposed to be an especially strong one) on the Americas. You will note the higher latitudes (further north and south from the equator) should be wetter, while generally areas closer to the equator should be drier. You will also note that our area of the Caribbean is not in a marked circle for drier conditions. I have compared our rainfall totals with El Ninos (and La Ninas) and haven’t found any real pattern, so I don’t think we can say with certainty we will have a drier summer than normal. That said, one definite pattern that is good for us is a lower likelihood of hurricanes. Of course, that isn’t zero, so we still need to be aware, but strong El Ninos generally decrease Caribbean hurricanes.

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Low tide is 4 p.m. Have a great Thursday!

For consistency’s sake, we will stick with Sandy Bay for our island rainfall for June, where they picked up 2.69 inches with rains the last week of the month breaking the drought and is similar to Guanaja’s total. The west side of Roatan generally got just under 2 inches, but West Bay (.33 of an inch) and Utila (.25) were the big losers.

Looking forward to July, on average, squalls increase during this month, giving us an average over 5 inches. Let’s hope we get it. We need it. The forecast looks a little rainier starting next week.

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Patric Lengacher, who captured this storm over Coxen Hole on June 20.

The storm we got yesterday morning brought over an inch of rain to Sandy Bay and around a half an inch to most west side locations, but sadly only about a quarter of an inch for West Bay, .04 for Guanaja and none for Utila. The forecast is also looking dry.

Our satellite at 6:45 a.m. shows mostly high, cirrus clouds giving us mostly sunny skies, though there are a few popcorn clouds south of Coxen Hole that may have a very small shower in them, so we can’t rule out someone seeing a quick shower, but it won’t amount to much. Our forecast overall is quite dry through the weekend. Starting Monday of next week we should see an increase in scattered overnight and morning showers. Winds will stay around 15-20 mph from the east and seas 3-4 feet.

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Low tide is 3:30 p.m. Have a great Wednesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. I don’t have to tell you we are seeing some beautiful rain over most of the island. Daniel Ebanks sent me this lightning bolt from 5 a.m. this morning at Mangrove Bight, Guanaja. We will see heavy rain lessen through the morning, and rain chances decrease as we move into the rest of the week.

Here is our satellite at 7:30 a.m. This is a strong storm cloud overhead and it isn’t moving much. Eastern Roatan has gotten between a quarter and half an inch and several locations in Sandy Bay have gotten well over an inch. This storm will slowly rain itself out through the morning and by afternoon we should have partly cloudy skies. We will have another decent shot at rain tonight, but after that things look drier Wednesday afternoon into the weekend.
Winds today will be from the east 10-15 mph during the day and seas 2-3 feet and 15-20 mph this evening and seas 3-4 feet. Tomorrow will start out quite calm, but winds during the day should get back to around 15 mph by afternoon.

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Low tide is 3 p.m. Have a great Tuesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day is a drone shot from Rickard Cleanmountain, showing snorkelers on West Bay reef.
Many of us on the big island got up to around a tenth of an inch of rain around 4 a.m. One location on Utila got .01 around midnight, but most locations were dry. Guanaja also picked up .01. We have a good chance of rain this evening through the night, perhaps even more than we got this morning if we’re fortunate. Winds will be milder today, 10-15 mph from the east with seas 2-3 feet, getting up to 15-20 mph and 3 feet this evening. Daytime winds tomorrow will be around 15 mph and seas 3 feet.

Here’s the 6 a.m. satellite. There’s rain northwest of Sandy Bay, but it will probably stay out to sea, but I can’t rule out a shower this morning.

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Low tide is 4 p.m., just before the rise of the full moon. Have a great week!

Good morning Bay Islands. We have a few showers out there, around mid-island at 7:45 a.m. and moving east to west. Between yesterday evening and this morning, though yet again West Bay has mostly missed out and Utila seems to. have completely missed out. Perhaps these showers will pass by you this morning. After that we should clear out to partly cloudy skies. A chance of a shower returns Wednesday evening into Thursday morning and again Friday into the weekend, with perhaps a better chance at more significant rain, which we really need. East winds will remain brisk, except for Thursday, when they should calm to 10-15 mph with seas 2-3 feet.

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Lowest tide is 11:15 a.m. Have a great Tuesday!