October 9, 2026

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Davinci McNab a couple of weeks ago when we were in full moon, showing the full moon rising over Paya Bay. We are currently getting close to new moon, meaning with not a lot of clouds at night, we should be getting a good look at the stars. We are in for a weekend of gorgeous weather.

At 6:30 a.m. we can see a bit of shower activity west of Utila that brought a tenth of an inch to the west side of Utila around 5:30 a.m. This is moving south and should weaken through the morning. We should see mostly sunny skies today with very calm winds and seas. What winds we have been having have been from the west, a very slight affect from Hurrican Isaias well to our north. This has caused West Bay to experience a few unusual waves, but even those should calm as the day goes on. This really will be a great weekend, with a small chance of an overnight shower tonight or early tomorrow morning.

The extended forecast increases rain chances Wednesday into the end of the week. Have a great weekend!

September rainfall and El Nino outlook

Good morning Bay Islands. For our official total for September, we’re putting Sandy Bay’s 3.16 inches in the books, but rain totals were all over the place across the islands, from 5 inches in Utila to 7-9 inches at Diamond Rock and Camp Bay and back down to 1.5 inches in Guanaja. Looking ahead, we’re about to enter our rainiest months of the year, but even in normal years, rainy season only starts in the second half of October. Right now the forecast doesn’t look especially rainy. Part of that is that the Atlantic basin has been dead for any sort of tropical storm and we usually get at least one nearby to give us some rain. So far that isn’t happening.

Many thanks to climate expert Zeke Hausfather for helping me cut through the noise with this year’s El Nino. I have looked at our rain records and compared with previous El Nino’s and found no clear trend. When you look at strong El Ninos (this years is the strongest on record by far) there is a small tendency toward it being drier than average (5 of 8 years, not 7 of 8 as the headline wrongly says). But the models are all forecasting a drier than average rainy season, and that is a strong indicator, with an average of 40 percent drier than normal. But I’m going to argue that’s not a bad thing. This El Nino has spared us ANY concern about hurricanes and I’ve always thought it a bit sad that our biggest tourist time of the year, when it’s cold up north, was so rainy. So if you’re in North America, this may be THE YEAR to book your trip to the Bay Islands, with fewer rainy northers. Even if we get only 60 percent of our normal rain that is still about 25 inches through January, which should keep most of our cisterns full.


September 30, 2026

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes form Brad Ryon, who captured this bolt during the big weekend thunderstorm over Utila. This time of year when we get storms, they are more likely to have thunder given the intense heat up and down the atmosphere. Fortunately our chances at storms the next two days are low, with brisk overnight winds and seas calming quite a bit middays to around 10 mph and seas 2 feet.

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September 27, 2026

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Daniel Ebanks on Guanaja. Our skies are actually quite a bit clearer than this today. Our winds and seas are a little stronger than we’ve been seeing, with east winds around 15 mph and seas up to 3 feet. They should calm a little midday and get back to 3 feet toward evening. We should be mostly sunny today, but today and tomorrow, there are better rain chances toward evening. Have a great Sunday!

September 25, 2026

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day is a gorgeous cloud formation off Utila from Brad Ryon. On Wednesday, Utila experienced quite the storm, getting between 4 and 5 inches in a two hour period midday. Fortunately they’ve been dry since. Yesterday many locations on Roatan got up to a half an inch of rain. Our forecast is going to get drier over the next few days.

At 6 a.m. we can see some storms well west of Utila moving south toward Puerto Cortes and away from us. We can’t rule out a shower here or there today, but we should be mostly partly cloudy. We are a bit windier than we have been at 15 mph, but seas are still fairly calm at 1-2 feet. Winds should get calmer toward midday and we should stay at 1 foot seas, getting a little winder toward evening. Have a great Friday!

September 23, 2026

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Brenda LeTarte captured this nicely colored cumulus cloud from Edo’s on Utila. As of 7 a.m. Utila has mostly missed the rain that has given many Roatanians half an inch or more of rain. We should see these showers diminish as the day goes on.

Here are rain totals as of 7 a.m.

On our infrared satellite we can see that most of our rain came around 5 a.m., when the center of the storm was over us, especially West Bay. Since then, the energy of the storm is mostly to our north. As the day goes on, we should become partly cloudy, though we can’t rule out a shower here or there. This evening and overnight into tomorrow morning better chances of rain return. Our winds and seas will remain quite calm, around 5 mph from the east and 1-2 foot seas.

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Low tides continue to be quite mild. Have a great Wednesday!

September 22, 2026

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from the web cam at Coco View, showing even on the normally wavy southside of the island, that we look more like a pond than a sea. These quite calm conditions will last at least through Thursday and perhaps through Friday before winds pick up a bit for the weekend. This is one of the reasons I always recommend this time of year as the best to visit the islands. If you want to snorkel all the reefs and not just West Bay, you can go anywhere around our islands and swim to your hearts content without being jostled by waves. And you only have to dodge the occasional shower.

On our satellite at 8:30 a.m. we can see some rain passing north of Roatan, but probably not bringing any showers to us. Yesterday the most significant shower happened around midday between Punta Blanca that got about half an inch and Diamond Rock that got almost 2 inches. Most of the rest of us got little to no rain and the only rain since midnight has been recorded on the west side of Utila this morning. We will continue to see scattered showers, but most of us staying dry.

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Low tides won’t be terribly low. Have a great first day of fall!

September 18, 2026

Good morning Bay Islands. Our satellite at 7:45 a.m. shows clouds moving in from the west, but any rain in this should stay to our north. Yesterday afternoon many of us got some good rain, between a quarter and half an inch for most of us. Rain totals since midnight have been very small and we should mostly stay dry today, but tonight into tomorrow there will be more scattered showers. Winds and seas will remain fairly calm at 10 mph from the east and seas 1-2 feet. Have a great Friday!

September 17, 2026

Good morning Bay Islands. We can see scattered popcorn clouds around our islands at 7 a.m. West End got about a tenth of an inch from a shower around 6 a.m. and the west side of Utila got about a quarter of an inch overnight. Today and tomorrow we will have scattered showers here and there, and a trend toward getting more rain over the next few days than we have gotten the first half of the month. On the bright side, seas will be quite calm, with east winds around 10 mph and seas 1-2 feet, so jump on the ferry and put down the seasickness bag.

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September 14, 2026

Good morning Bay Islands. We have a few popcorn clouds at 6:30 a.m. between West Bay and Utila, though the chances of rain will be small this morning, even for Utila. Last night Utila got about a quarter of an inch, and West Bay picked up .05 around 5:30 a.m. We will be mostly sunny today with very small chances of rain, mostly overnight and in the early morning. Winds this morning are from the east at 15 mph and seas around 4 feet, but we will see a trend toward calmer winds and seas as the week goes on. Wednesday through Saturday look quite calm. We will also see a trend toward more rain, especially Thursday and Friday.

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Tides are running quite high under a new moon. Have a great week!