July 4, 2022

July 4, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Yesterday and overnight we stayed dry.

Today we will have partly cloudy skies and mild winds from the east 7-15 mph and 1-2 foot (.3 to .6 meter) seas. Tonight we will have increasing clouds and a good chance of rain overnight. That chance extends into tomorrow morning. After the rain clears out tomorrow we will return to partly cloudy skies and winds 10-17 mph and 2-3 foot seas (.6 to 1 meter). For the rest of the week we will have small chances of shower, mostly overnight, around a 35 percent chance each day and daytime winds around 15 mph and nighttime winds around 20 mph. The chance of rain goes up again Friday night. Have a great week!

July 3, 2022

July 3, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Despite yesterday being so overcast and wet, most of us only got between a quarter and half an inch of rain yesterday in the rain bucket. It was gusty. We got a gust at 38 mph here on Jonesville Point and most of the afternoon winds were 25-30 mph. Today will be much drier with lingering clouds and only a 30 percent chance of a passing shower. Winds will be from the east around 20 mph and seas at 3 feet (1 meter).

The next good chance of rain is Monday night into Tuesday morning. Winds will be moderate, from the east 10-15 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters) both days. Wednesday through the end of the week winds will be 15-20 mph and seas 2-3 feet with 30-40 percent chances of showers each day (mostly evenings or overnights). Have a great Sunday!

Rainfall for June 2022

Rainfall for June 2022: We got a respectable 3.69 inches, over our average of 3.09 inches for the month. Total on the island ranged from about 2.5 inches here on Jonesville Point and West Bay, to over 4 inches at Mud Hole and over 5 inches at Punta Blanca. (Utila only got 2.06). July is usually our wettest month outside of rainy season, with an average of 5.47 inches. It is one of the reasons why July, often the hottest month in North America, is much milder on the island. We have more clouds and rain. April/May and September are the hottest months, when there is less rain and fewer clouds to block the Roatan Sun. Have a great month!

July 2, 2022

July 2, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Tropical Storm Bonnie has brought us some rain on the very northern end of its circulation. Most of us got between a quarter and three quarters of an inch overnight into this morning.

Satellite image at 9 a.m.

The center of circulation is located just south of Managua, Nicaragua as of 9 a.m. We will be dealing with scattered showers and occasionally gusty winds to around 20-25 mph and seas up around 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters) especially on the southside.

Over the next week, we will see waves of moisture giving us increased chances of rain. The next one of those is Monday night into Tuesday morning. Winds Monday and Tuesday will be around 10 mph and seas at 2 feet, so all in all, not a bad start to the week. Have a great weekend!

July 1, 2022

July 1, 2022: Good morning Roatan! Our tropical cyclone, which still has not reach tropical storm status yet, is bringing rain to the coast of Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica as of 8 a.m. this morning. As the day moves along it will quickly move across Central America and emerge into the Pacific, where it is expected to strengthen, perhaps into a hurricane. But this system has a history of underperforming the models. Nevertheless, this could be a big rainmaker for southern Nicaragua. It will sweep some moisture our way and bring a good chance of rain tonight and through much of tomorrow. It should also bring 20 mph winds from the east and 3-4 foot (1-1.3 meter) seas.

Sunday we’ll keep some clouds around and east winds 20-25 mph, but there will be a lower chance of rain, around 30 percent.

Next week will be a week of moderate winds and seas (10-20 mph and 2-3 foot seas) and 30 to 40 percent chances of rain each day. Have a great Friday!

June 30, 2022

June 30, 2022: Good morning Roatan! Yesterday rain threatened much of the day and some of us got quite a bit. Punta Blanca picked up nearly an inch and Mud Hole got .62, while West Bay only got .03.

Today and tomorrow should be very nice, with mild winds and seas and partly cloudy skies. There will be a small chance of rain, especially in the overnight.

The models are now saying our storm, which could be named Bonnie later today. Will likely stay tropical storm strength as it nears the Nicaragua/Costa Rica coast. Some moisture may sweep our way Saturday, but it shouldn’t be too heavy. Winds should pick up from the east to around 20 mph and seas to 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters).

Next week looks very similar to this week, with mild to moderate winds and seas and 30-40 percent chances of rain each day. Have a great Thursday!

June 29, 2022

June 29, 2022: As you can see by the predicted path and predicted wind field of the storm currently off the Venezuelan coast is well to our south, on the southern coast of Nicaragua. Any effects we get will be mild.

Today we awoke to more clouds than we’ve been used to. Expect a partly cloudy day with rain chances increasing into the evening and overnight. Winds will continue moderate, out of the east around 15 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters). Tomorrow our rain chance will be a little lower, perhaps 30 percent and Saturday looks dry right now. Sunday evening we may get some moisture from the tropical system, giving us some scattered showers Sunday evening into Monday.

As you can see in the US GFS model, the wave of moisture from what could be TS Bonnie might pull a little moisture over us Sunday evening. This is far from a sure thing, though, and depends on the exact track of the storm.

June 28, 2022

Good morning Roatan! We’ve had a gorgeous 24 hours of weather and that should continue with moderate winds and seas and mostly clear skies. Wednesday night into Thursday morning there will be a higher chance of rain as a wave of unsettled weather passes over.

The National Hurricane Center still gives our South American storm a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical system. You will note we are outside the forecast for the center to pass over, what is called the “cone of uncertainty”. If this becomes a tropical storm (probably Bonnie) or a hurricane, the center is most likely to strike Nicaragua or even Costa Rica. But that doesn’t mean it won’t affect us this weekend.

This is this morning’s US GFS forecast. If this were to happen, the storm would strike the Mosquito Coast of Nicaragua, but the storm would then move inland and toward us. If this were to happen, we could expect winds up to 40 mph Sunday evening. This is just one possible outcome. The European model has this storm skipping across Costa Rica and becoming a Pacific hurricane.

June 27, 2022

June 27, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! We awoke to clear skies and mild winds and no rain in the last 24 hours. The conditions should continue today and tomorrow with daytime winds around 10 mph and seas 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 meters). Nighttime winds will be 15-20 mph and there will be a small chance of an overnight popup shower.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be our next good chance of rain. After that all eyes are on the potential tropical storm, right now called Invest 94L but which could become Tropical Storm Bonnie. Most models show it developing as it moves toward Trinidad over the next 24 hours. Models still show it coming toward Nicaragua Saturday, but the US and European models are leaning toward it staying a tropical storm (not a hurricane) the whole time. It still has the potential to bring showers and choppy seas our way this weekend. Have a great week!

Evening tropical update for June 26, 2022

The National Hurricane Center has the storm that could become Bonnie up to an 80 percent chance of forming in five days and 60 percent in the next 48 hours.

The chart shown here demonstrates how unusual a June tropical system striking South America is. The two in June were one in 1933 and TS Bret in 2017 that caused the deaths of two people in Trinidad.

The only other thing I can say about the latest runs is that they are trending southward, so you will note the forecast track from NHC shows it possibly going as far south as northern Costa Rica.