Good morning Roatan! We’ve had a gorgeous 24 hours of weather and that should continue with moderate winds and seas and mostly clear skies. Wednesday night into Thursday morning there will be a higher chance of rain as a wave of unsettled weather passes over.

The National Hurricane Center still gives our South American storm a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical system. You will note we are outside the forecast for the center to pass over, what is called the “cone of uncertainty”. If this becomes a tropical storm (probably Bonnie) or a hurricane, the center is most likely to strike Nicaragua or even Costa Rica. But that doesn’t mean it won’t affect us this weekend.

This is this morning’s US GFS forecast. If this were to happen, the storm would strike the Mosquito Coast of Nicaragua, but the storm would then move inland and toward us. If this were to happen, we could expect winds up to 40 mph Sunday evening. This is just one possible outcome. The European model has this storm skipping across Costa Rica and becoming a Pacific hurricane.

June 27, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! We awoke to clear skies and mild winds and no rain in the last 24 hours. The conditions should continue today and tomorrow with daytime winds around 10 mph and seas 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 meters). Nighttime winds will be 15-20 mph and there will be a small chance of an overnight popup shower.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be our next good chance of rain. After that all eyes are on the potential tropical storm, right now called Invest 94L but which could become Tropical Storm Bonnie. Most models show it developing as it moves toward Trinidad over the next 24 hours. Models still show it coming toward Nicaragua Saturday, but the US and European models are leaning toward it staying a tropical storm (not a hurricane) the whole time. It still has the potential to bring showers and choppy seas our way this weekend. Have a great week!

The National Hurricane Center has the storm that could become Bonnie up to an 80 percent chance of forming in five days and 60 percent in the next 48 hours.

The chart shown here demonstrates how unusual a June tropical system striking South America is. The two in June were one in 1933 and TS Bret in 2017 that caused the deaths of two people in Trinidad.

The only other thing I can say about the latest runs is that they are trending southward, so you will note the forecast track from NHC shows it possibly going as far south as northern Costa Rica.

The National Hurricane Center now has our storm near Guyana at a 70 percent chance of becoming at least a tropical depression in the next five days, and chances are good that the next 24 hours could see it actually become a tropical storm. It is entering and environment of low shear (winds that compete with and weaken tropical development at the higher levels of the atmosphere) and deep moisture.

The storm, which could become Bonnie, will hug the Venezuelan and Colombian coastlines, possibly even making landfalls and weakening somewhat in the process. But most models say it will survive into the Caribbean where it will have a rich environment for development.

If you look at the model intensity guidance, the important point for us is the 144-hour mark, which is when it would make landfall, likely in Nicaragua. At that point about half the models have it as a tropical storm (39-73 mph sustained winds) and about half have it as a category one hurricane (74-95 mph). Of course, if it makes landfall in Nicaragua, our winds wouldn’t be near that high. We would probably get 35 mph winds and choppy seas. Remember Eta and Iota in 2020 made landfall in the same general area as category 4/5 and we experienced winds that were at the most in the 40 mph range.

This is the Canadian model, and as you can see this predicts a worst-case scenario for us, with the storm hugging the northern coast of Honduras and cutting between us and La Ceiba. Again, this is a week out, so it lots of things can change, but stay weather aware as we get toward Saturday.

June 26, 2022: Good morning Roatan! We stayed dry the last 24 hours ending 8 a.m. Wind speeds for much of this week look to be stable, in the 10-17 mph range from the east, with 1-2 foot (.3 to .6 meter) waves. All in all it should be a nice week for swimming and boating. There will be small chances of rain, especially overnight tonight and tomorrow. Tuesday and Wednesday look like very dry, with perhaps a 10 percent chance of a popup shower. Thursday and Friday the rain chances go up with a wave of moisture. As for the potential for tropical weather this weekend, I will post a separate tropical update. Have a great Sunday!

June 25, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! We got a quick bit of rain early this morning and so did Politilly, but only a few hundredths of an inch. Today we will have a fifty fifty chance of rain, especially toward evening. Winds will be from the east/southeast 15-20 mph. Seas will be 2 feet (.6 meters), perhaps around 3 feet (1 meter) by evening. Rain chances will be lower tomorrow through Tuesday before going up again Wednesday and Thursday.

We are still looking at the possibility of a storm brewing in the Atlantic and coming this way. The clouds right now are off the coast of the Guyanas. We are a long way away from the storm getting to our neighborhood, which models predict would be around July 2. It is way too early to get worried, but it is unusual for so many models to have this much agreement this early in the game. The forecast map here is the European model. It is similar to the US model, but perhaps a little stronger. It shows the storm hitting midcoast of Nicaragua. We’ll keep an eye on it.

June 23, 2022 and tropical update: Good evening, Roatan! Sorry for missing this morning. Last night most of us got somewhere in the neighborhood of an inch of rain. It was long overdue and much needed.

As you may know by now, long-range forecasts are trying to bring a tropical system our way. We had a false alarm earlier, but this one is different, because more than one model agrees something is brewing in the eastern Atlantic and BOTH the GFS and the European model are bringing it close to us. If it happens, it would get near us around July 2. That is a long way away, but it is something to watch. Tomorrow will be a beautiful day, by the way, with calm winds and seas and a small chance of a shower. Winds pick up this weekend to around 20 mph. Have a great evening!

June 22, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! On the far western end of the island we had a morning shower giving us a few hundredths of an inch.

Today we will have moderate winds from the east/northeast at 10-15 mph and seas at 2 feet. Partly cloudy skies will give us a 30 percent chance of a passing shower.

Thursday and Friday winds will be light and variable with 1 foot seas. Those will be beautiful days for boatin, snorkeling and diving, or just sitting on the beach if that is your thing. Chance of rain should be about 40 percent on Thursday but only 20 percent on Friday. Winds pick up to 10-20 mph this weekend and the beginning of next week. Have a great Wednesday!

June 20, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! No rain the last 24 hours.

This morning we wake up with another big bank of clouds to our east, but again, it should dissipate as the day goes on. Winds will be from the east/southeast at 20 mph, increasing to around 30 mph this evening. Seas will be 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters). There will be a small chance (20 percent) of a scattered shower.

Tuesday winds will continue in the 20-25 mph range, but they will start to calm Wednesday and Thursday through Saturday morning should be quite calm, beautiful days on the sea.

Throughout the week there will be about 30 percent chance of a scattered shower. Right now it looks like the chance will increase over the weekend. Have a great week!

June 19, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Well, at least the cloud cover has kept the temperatures down. No rain over the last 24 hours as of 7 a.m. on Roatan. Radar shows some showers to our west. The recording station on Utila seems to be down, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they got some rain. There is a large complex of rain to our north and east this morning. That’s no guarantee we’ll get rain today, but we have a 50/50 shot. Winds and seas will stay calm until this evening, when winds pick up to around 20 mph. Tomorrow looks windy, with east winds 15-25 mph and perhaps 30 mph in the evening, out of the east. Rain chances are around 30 percent tomorrrow. Winds will get calmer Wednesday through the end of the week. It looks like all week we will have about a 30-40 percent chance of a shower. Have a great Sunday!