March 2023 precipitation. No surprise. March was a dry month and we are headed into statistically our driest month of the year. Officially we are putting 2.76 inches in the bucket, our driest since the horrible drought year of 2019. Last year we got almost 10 inches, but average we have 3.53 for March. Here in Jonesville Point we barely got 1 inch for the month. April is the peak of the dry season with an average of 1.5 inches. But back in 2020 we got no rain at all in April. The long range forecast gives us slightly better chances of morning showers toward the middle of the month, but nothing to get excited about. Time to call the water truck.

March 31, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. We have one more day of moderate winds and 3 foot seas before the stronger winds and seas start again tonight. As you can see in the chart, starting tonight we will have nighttime winds 30-35 mph and seas around 6 feet and daytime winds 18-25 mph and seas usually around 4 feet. We will have some high clouds over the weekend but basically no chance of rain.
Tuesday through Thursday winds are even crazier with seas getting back up to 8 feet at night.
Good Friday through the holiday weekend looks a bit calmer. Earlier we were thinking there would be scattered showers that weekend but we now think those will wait for the following week.

Low tides are 12:12 p.m. and just after midnight at 12:09 a.m. tonight. Have a great Friday!

March 30, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands! We got some rain over the island, especially in the 6 am. hour and especially between West End and Sandy Bay, where we’ve almost picked up half an inch as of 7 a.m.

We’re still dry on the east side, but there is one more round of clouds and potential showers over Barbarat that may come this way, probably before 9 a.m. After that we should be sunny and nice. This is the least windy day we’ve had in awhile. Seas are 3 feet and winds are around 15 mph. Those conditions continue through today.
Tonight winds will be 20-25 mph and seas 4 feet. There will be a small chance of rain, smaller than this morning’s chance was.
Tomorrow we will again have 15-20 mph winds and 3 foot seas, but starting tomorrow night we get dry and windy and those conditions go through the weekend into next week. We may not be QUITE as windy as last week. Last week our winds got up to 40 mph and 8 foot seas. For the first part of Semana Santa, nighttime winds will be 30-35 mph and seas 6-7 feet. The end of Semana Santa looks a little calmer and with maybe some scattered showers, especially that weekend.

Low tides today are 11:51 a.m. and 11:42 p.m. Have a great Thursday!

March 29, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands! Last night we got up to 35 mph winds. That might sound windy, but it was about 5 mph less than the previous night. So we are headed in the right direction. Today we should be slightly less windy with daytime winds 20-25 mph and seas at 4 feet and nighttime winds, especially after midnight, falling to 15-20 mph and seas to 3 foot seas for the morning yacht.

Tomorrow we also have a small chance of a morning shower. I’m including tomorrow’s rainfall prediction from the US GFS computer model. You will notice a pretty typical setup for morning showers this time of year, with the rain starting off the Mosquito Coast and drifting toward us. As the morning continues, these showers weaken and the question is whether any of them will make it to the islands. Let’s hope.

Starting Friday night we go back to being dry, windy and wavy. Those conditions will continue through the holiday week next week. For the holiday weekend long range models are saying the winds might calm a little and we might have a few scattered showers.

Low tides are 11:23 a.m. and 11:09 p.m. Have a great Wednesday!

March 28, 2023: Good morning Roatan! We are still windy with 25 mph winds after getting up to 38 mph last night. Someone higher up the hill than we are got up to 45 mph. Seas are at 5 feet around the island. Today and this evening will continue super windy, but tomorrow starts three days when our winds are more normal. Tomorrow’s daytime winds should be 20 mph with 3 foot seas, tomorrow night winds will be 25 mph and 4 foot seas. Thursday winds will be 15 mph and 2 foot seas and Thursday night 20 mph and 3 foot seas. Also on Thursday we will have a small chance of a morning shower. It’s not much, but it’s the only chance we see for at least a week and a half. Friday should be nice, but Saturday the winds come back in full force.

Low tide is 10:27 p.m. Have a great Tuesday!

March 27, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands. Another windy night with a peak gust of 39 mph and seas up to 6-7 feet. This morning seas on the south side are 5 feet and today looks like it will be just as windy as yesterday. We are still looking for a little bit lower winds Wednesday through Friday with 20-25 mph and seas 3-4 feet.

I don’t want to give anyone false hope but Thursday there may be a few clouds and maybe one or two showers around the islands. Otherwise we are clear and dry into next week.

Low tide is 9:28 p.m. Have a great week!

Good morning Bay Islands. Seas are down to around 5 feet this morning on the south side and winds are 25-30 mph this morning from the southeast. We had a peak gust of 39 mph last night and seas got up around 7.5 feet (2.2 meters). Get ready for more of the same, gusty winds, especially after sundown, and extremely choppy seas in the evening, a little better in the morning.

This is the wind and wave forecast from windguru.cz. As you can see our weather will be about the same until midweek. Wednesday through Friday with winds 15-25 mph and seas 2-4 feet. Unfortunately after that the wind goes up again. No rain and very few clouds in the forecast.

Low tide is 7:55 p.m. Have a great Sunday!

March 25, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands! Welcome to our new windy reality. Seas on the south side are 4-5 feet after getting close to 7 feet overnight. Seas near the reef on the north side are more moderate at 2-3 feet. We will have clear skies and no rain today tomorrow and the following week. Winds will be their strongest tonight after sunset at 30-35 mph from the east.

Here’s the wave map for 7 p.m. tonight. Dark blue indicates 6-8 foot seas. This evening’s ferry ride will be rough all the way from Ceiba.

Here’s the wave map for 7 a.m. tomorrow. You will notice tomorrow morning things are a little better toward Ceiba. Winds will get A LITTLE better starting Wednesday.

As you can see on the tide chart, tides have moderated from what they were a few days ago as we enter crescent moon phase. Low tide is 6:17 p.m. Have a great weekend!

March 23, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands! Early this morning West Bay and West End got a couple of rounds of rain, good for a quarter of an inch. The rest of the island stayed mostly dry.

There are clouds around this morning, so we will keep a chance of a morning shower. I’ve circled in yellow an area of clouds well to our east. Most of the time these disappear in late morning, but if they hold together and don’t move to our south, it may give us a small chance of rain late in the morning.

This morning seas are 3 feet on the southside and 2 feet on the northside. Winds are still fairly calm, but we definitely expect them to start blowing harder from the east, giving us 4-5 foot waves tonight, 5-6 foot waves tomorrow night and 6-8 foot waves Saturday night. Daytime wave will generally be about 2 feet less than the nighttime waves. In other words be careful out on the sea.
We are entering a period of extremely dry air overhead, so we will see fewer and fewer clouds in the days ahead.

Low tide is 4:17 p.m. Have a great Thursday!

March 22, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands! Most of us got a little rain early this morning.

There are a few clouds around the island so we will keep a small chance of a passing shower through the morning hours, but we should soon clear out.

Tonight and tomorrow morning there is maybe a 10 percent chance of rain and after that there is basically no chance of rain for probably a couple of weeks. Winds are from the east at 15 mph and seas 4 feet. We are going back into a windy cycle with daytime winds 15-20 mph and seas 3-4 feet and nighttime winds 20-25 mph and seas 4-5 feet. This weekend nighttime winds will be even stronger, around 30 mph.

We are still in the new moon period of strong tides, so low tide at 3:28 p.m. will be about 3 inches below a normal low tide. Have a great Wednesday!