Surprise surprise. We have an area for investigation to be a potential tropical storm. Fortunately for us it is only a 10 percent chance of developing. The storm they are looking at is the one that originally made me think this weekend might be rainy.

At the start of this map, you will see some rain north of Colombia moving to the west, but as it moves toward us, it never really gets very strong, because it is running into all the dry air that is giving us this dry weather. In fact, right now this weekend looks like only scattered showers, not heavy rain, so chances are not good for a tropical storm at all. But the National Hurricane Center thought the chance was good enough to mark it for investigation, so we will keep an eye on it.

Other than that, this week looks very nice. We start the day with fairly calm winds and seas and almost clear skies. Winds will get up to around 15 mph this evening and seas to 3 feet, but starting tomorrow evening and into the weekend we will have remarkably calm winds and seas. Of course with lots of sun and little wind, its going to feel hot, especially compared to the fresh air we had this past weekend.

Good morning Bay Islands. Early this morning we had some light showers pass, giving most of us enough rain to get the ground wet, though Hottest Sparrow got a quarter of an inch.

The reason for the rain was these clouds that are mostly south of us (but still north of Utila). Roatan is almost out of these clouds at 8;30 a.m., so we should start seeing more sun. We’ll keep a chance of a shower through the morning into midday, especially for Utila, but rain totals should be light.
Tomorrow through Wednesday look quite dry. Rain chances get a little better for the end of next week and the weekend, but we’re not talking heavy all-day rain, just scattered showers.

We start the day with west winds around 15 mph and seas 3 feet on the north side and 2 feet on the south side. Winds and seas should get calmer as the day goes on, getting quite calm tonight and tomorrow morning. Tomorrow evening and Tuesday morning winds turn to the east 15-20 mph and seas 3 feet on the south side, 2 feet on the north side. Tuesday evening into the rest of the week, winds and seas look quite calm.

All in all it will be a good weather week and we should get some of our muddy spots dried out. Unfortunately we’ll feel hotter and the effects of our norther wear off and the heat builds back to the mid, and in some cases upper, 80s.

Low tides are 8 a.m. (now) and 9 p.m. Have a great Sunday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Good morning Bay Islands. We had a light shower pass early this morning bring a little rain to several locations. There are still a few clouds to our south moving west to east. There is a small chance of a shower this morning, especially for Utila, but today should be mostly sunny with westerly winds around 15 mph and seas at 3 feet on the north side and 2 feet on the southside. Winds tomorrow will be from the west 10-15 mph, getting calmer toward evening and seas will be around 2 feet, 1 foot on the southside. There is a small chance of showers midmorning to midday tomorrow as some clouds pass over, but it shouldn’t be much. Winds and seas look quite calm next week, and the weather looks great. Rain chances go up late next week, but only to 30 or 40 percent chances of shower. Have a great weekend!

Good morning Bay Islands. Yesterday we got around a quarter of an inch west side and half to three quarters of an inch east side, with one location at First Bight recording 1.46. Most of this rain came noon to 3 p.m. as the front passed through, giving us gusty north winds.

This morning we have had a couple of locations with very light rain and in town in Utila with a third of an inch.

Usually north winds bring a lot of rain, but this time our north winds have a lot of dry air in the upper atmosphere, so we aren’t getting much rain, but still the cooler air is condensing into clouds and some of us might get an occasional light shower out of this. But most of us should stay dry under partly cloudy skies today. Winds this morning out to sea are from the north/northwest at 20 mph and seas at 4 feet. Winds today will start turning to the west at 15 mph and seas to 3 feet this evening.

Our potential tropical storm is bringing heavy rain to Jamaica and Haiti this morning, but still hasn’t organized into a tropical depression. Kingston has picked up 2.5 inches today and 5 inches over two days. But it is moving away from us and the cold front is near Cayman and running down to eastern Honduras.

We will be dealing with drier weather starting today and going into early next week. A small disturbance may pass through Sunday morning or midday giving us a shower, but I don’t think it will be much, if it happens at all. A cold front headed this way for Thursday, now looks like it will stall to our north, but the end of next week should have more scattered showers and rain moved in from the east.

Winds tomorrow will be from the west at 15-20 and seas 3-4 feet. Sunday from the west around 15 mph and seas 3 feet. Sunday evening and Monday morning winds will calm as they start switching to the east. Monday evening and Tuesday we’ll have east winds at 15 mph and seas around 2-3 feet. Winds will be calmer the end of next week.

Our lowest tides are coming around sunrise. Have a great Friday and enjoy the beautiful weather!

We got some great responses to our new sponsor, Rosita’s Meat Market and thanks to Trish Symons for giving us a Google Map pin to help folks navigate to the stores if they’ve never been there.
French harbour
https://maps.app.goo.gl/so2DPktnqrAfgj2SA?g_st=ic

Coxen Hole
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Good morning Bay Islands. There were scattered showers this morning across our islands and low rain totals.

Our cold front is just to our west and our storm is well to our east. It got stronger overnight and that could mean some stronger north winds, around 20-25 mph, coming midday today and some choppy seas, 4-5 feet, on the north side.

Along the front there are some rain showers which could pass over the islands mid-morning. I don’t look for a whole lot of rain, but we could get a quick downpour. Things will improve this afternoon, and I think we will begin to notice fresher weather, even with sunshine.
We will have beautiful weather, if a bit windy. Winds will be from the north/northwest today and tomorrow 15-25 mph and from the west for the weekend 17-22 mph on Saturday and 10-15 mph on Sunday. Winds turn back to the east on Monday through the first part of next week.
After potential showers midmorning, things should be nice, with low chances of rain through the weekend. There is a week disturbance that might pass through and give us a shower Sunday morning, but other than that we should be mostly dry into next week. Another norther may be coming Thursday of next week with rain and north winds.

Here’s our tide chart for today. Lowest tide was at 4:18 a.m.

Have a great Thursday and a big shout out to our sponsor Rosita’s Meat Market in Coxen Hole and French Harbor. I don’t have to tell you they have the freshest meats. When you stop by, thank them for supporting local weather forecasts.

Good morning Bay Islands and hello Utila! you guys have gotten quite wet this morning with 1.5-2.5 inches since 3:30 a.m.

You can see a heavy shower on satellite right over the islands at 6:15 a.m. This activity is drifting south-southwest. There are scattered showers around the other islands too.

Chance of a tropical depression is down to 50 percent. The fact that it is further east means we will get less rain today than originally forecast. I think today will be a lot like yesterday. Mostly cloudy with a few peeks of sun and scattered showers. Someone asked for an explanation of what the orange box really means and what it tells us about the future of the tropical system I will do that during my video today.

The potential tropical storm is still centered off the coast of Colombia and will stay far enough away that it won’t have a direct impact on our weather. What will have an impact is the cold front north of Yucatan. It will likely bring a wave of rain tomorrow night. Behind it we will have improving weather with maybe a few light showers Friday and Saturday and a really nice Sunday and Monday.

Today and tomorrow we will still be dealing with scattered showers, light winds except in squalls and seas around 3 feet. When our cold front arrives, seas will be up to around 4 feet. Have a great Wednesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Here is the rainfall since midnight.

And here is our rainfall yesterday. Not much. Most of us got around a quarter of an inch or less.

This morning most of the rain is lifting north of us. We have storms to our east, but they are moving northwest and will probably weaken as the morning goes on. Looks like just scattered showers this morning with periods of sun and periods of clouds.

The National Hurricane Center has given potential Tropical Storm Vince a red X, meaning that they believe the center of low pressure is now off the Mosquito Coast. It has a 10 percent chance of becoming a depression through two days and 70 percent through seven days. It is forecast to move northeast, away from us.

Most of the models give us an inch to an inch an a half of rain today and around 2 inches tomorrow. Rain lingers into Thursday morning, but after that our rain chances go down and a cool north breeze builds in. There will still be isolated cool showers Friday into Saturday, but probably clear skies Sunday and Monday and some of the most beautiful fresh weather we’ll ever experience here. Next week looks nice with only isolated showers. Have a great Tuesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Only a little rain this morning by 6:30 a.m. Most of that came just after midnight.

The east side got good and wet yesterday, with less rain on the west side.

This morning we have a 60 percent of tropical development on our low pressure system that this morning is about halfway between Nicaragua and Colombia. The watch box is a little further east.

Our satellite and radar shows showers and thunderstorms to our east-northeast and moving northwest.

I think we have a good chance of missing the worst of it this morning, with a 50 percent chance of a shower. Rain chances increase tonight to 60 percent. Tomorrow and Wednesday still look rainier, as the low pressure system comes close to the Mosquito Coast and throws some rain our way. Most models still show 3-4 inches through Wednesday. Rain lingers into Thursday morning, but then our weather takes a turn for the better. A norther comes through, and we will have a few isolated showers, but much less rain than we normally get with a norther. If the tropical storm gets stronger out in the Caribbean, it could bring some dry, cool air over us for the weekend and next Monday. Have a great week!

We wake up to partly cloudy skies, east winds 10 mph and seas 2-3 feet. On satellite it looks like north side Guanaja may be getting a shower at 7 a.m.

No rain overnight!

Our potential Tropical Storm Vince is well south, bringing rain to Panama and Colombia.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of it becoming a tropical depression to 50 percent, but still none of the models show it coming over us. The GFS still shows it nearing the Mosquito Coast around Wednesday, while most other models keep it further south and slow its development until Friday.

That is an important day, because that is the day a cold front arrives and brings us north winds and fresher weather and LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN, especially Sunday and Monday, which may be some of the nicest days you’ll ever experience on Roatan.

For now, most of today should continue partly cloudy to mostly sunny with only isolated showers. Chances increase this evening and tonight. Tomorrow we will have a 50 percent chance of showers, Tuesday 60 percent and Wednesday 70 percent. Most of the models are trending down in total rainfall through Wednesday. On the low end, GFS is only predicting an inch and a half from now through Wednesday. On the high end, the ICON is predicting about 4 inches. If course any rain will continue to delay the drying of our roads, which are in a pretty bad state.

Winds today will be from the east 10-15 mph and seas 3 feet. Winds will be quite calm Monday and Tuesday, but seas will continue to be 2-3 feet because of swell, caused by winds elsewhere in the Caribbean. Seas will get worse later in the week if an when the storm gets close to the Mosquito Coast before moving east to Jamaica. A cold front is actually expected to pass through Friday, perhaps giving us showers Friday, but giving us a nice weekend, with light air, north winds and cool temps. Have a great Sunday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Here is the satellite image of a thundershower were dealing with here on the east side.

The rain is moving to the west-northwest.

These are rain totals as of 6:55 a.m.

We’ll be dealing with frequent showers through the morning. Rain should become less this afternoon through tomorrow morning and increase tomorrow afternoon. Monday through Wednesday still have the potential for heavy rain, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Most of the models show some sort of tropical disturbance forming off the Mosquito Coast, but the center of the storm has almost no chance of coming this way. It will eventually move northeast, giving us lower rain chances the end of next week. I am very excited that we might have a dry and fresh weekend, with sunny skies and temperatures only around 80 degrees.

Here’s our video forecast for today, in which I talk about the potential for Tropical Storm Vince and why we really want him to form. Also, nice weather next weekend.