Good morning Bay Islands. Only a little rain this morning by 6:30 a.m. Most of that came just after midnight.

The east side got good and wet yesterday, with less rain on the west side.

This morning we have a 60 percent of tropical development on our low pressure system that this morning is about halfway between Nicaragua and Colombia. The watch box is a little further east.

Our satellite and radar shows showers and thunderstorms to our east-northeast and moving northwest.

I think we have a good chance of missing the worst of it this morning, with a 50 percent chance of a shower. Rain chances increase tonight to 60 percent. Tomorrow and Wednesday still look rainier, as the low pressure system comes close to the Mosquito Coast and throws some rain our way. Most models still show 3-4 inches through Wednesday. Rain lingers into Thursday morning, but then our weather takes a turn for the better. A norther comes through, and we will have a few isolated showers, but much less rain than we normally get with a norther. If the tropical storm gets stronger out in the Caribbean, it could bring some dry, cool air over us for the weekend and next Monday. Have a great week!

We wake up to partly cloudy skies, east winds 10 mph and seas 2-3 feet. On satellite it looks like north side Guanaja may be getting a shower at 7 a.m.

No rain overnight!

Our potential Tropical Storm Vince is well south, bringing rain to Panama and Colombia.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of it becoming a tropical depression to 50 percent, but still none of the models show it coming over us. The GFS still shows it nearing the Mosquito Coast around Wednesday, while most other models keep it further south and slow its development until Friday.

That is an important day, because that is the day a cold front arrives and brings us north winds and fresher weather and LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN, especially Sunday and Monday, which may be some of the nicest days you’ll ever experience on Roatan.

For now, most of today should continue partly cloudy to mostly sunny with only isolated showers. Chances increase this evening and tonight. Tomorrow we will have a 50 percent chance of showers, Tuesday 60 percent and Wednesday 70 percent. Most of the models are trending down in total rainfall through Wednesday. On the low end, GFS is only predicting an inch and a half from now through Wednesday. On the high end, the ICON is predicting about 4 inches. If course any rain will continue to delay the drying of our roads, which are in a pretty bad state.

Winds today will be from the east 10-15 mph and seas 3 feet. Winds will be quite calm Monday and Tuesday, but seas will continue to be 2-3 feet because of swell, caused by winds elsewhere in the Caribbean. Seas will get worse later in the week if an when the storm gets close to the Mosquito Coast before moving east to Jamaica. A cold front is actually expected to pass through Friday, perhaps giving us showers Friday, but giving us a nice weekend, with light air, north winds and cool temps. Have a great Sunday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Here is the satellite image of a thundershower were dealing with here on the east side.

The rain is moving to the west-northwest.

These are rain totals as of 6:55 a.m.

We’ll be dealing with frequent showers through the morning. Rain should become less this afternoon through tomorrow morning and increase tomorrow afternoon. Monday through Wednesday still have the potential for heavy rain, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Most of the models show some sort of tropical disturbance forming off the Mosquito Coast, but the center of the storm has almost no chance of coming this way. It will eventually move northeast, giving us lower rain chances the end of next week. I am very excited that we might have a dry and fresh weekend, with sunny skies and temperatures only around 80 degrees.

Here’s our video forecast for today, in which I talk about the potential for Tropical Storm Vince and why we really want him to form. Also, nice weather next weekend.

Good morning Bay Islands. Here is today’s video forecast.

We’re dealing with a storm to our east that may bring us a shower or thundershower through the morning. These storms tend to weaken as the morning goes along, so I think our afternoon will be nice.

The National Hurricane Center has issued a watch area for a tropical system, but only gives it a 20 percent chance through 7 days. So very low likelihood of a tropical storm.

For tomorrow we will have a 50/50 chance of scattered showers. Rain Monday through Wednesday looks heavier as a low pressure or tropical system forms to our east, but by Wednesday it should be caught by a cold front and move quickly east, so the chances of us being directly affected by a tropical storm are very low. Have a great Friday!

Short story:

Nice today and most of tomorrow. Mild winds and seas through Saturday.

Chance of rain this weekend is 50/50, but probably only 1-2 inches of rain.

Next week’s forecast depends on how our low pressure/potential tropical storm forms. If it forms, it may actually mean less rain for us, as the tropical storm draws moisture away. If it doesn’t, we may be dealing with periods of heavy rain early next week, but right now it looks like only 2-4 additional inches. Have a great Thursday!

Nov. 8, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands, short story:

Light rain possible through noon, then some peeks of sun.

Nice tomorrow and most of Friday. Seas 3-4 feet today, 2 feet tomorrow, 1-2 feet for the weekend.

Rain chances return for the weekend and possible heavy rain Monday and Tuesday. GFS wants to create a tropical storm to our east, which would bring us rain early in the week, but if it moved north like the model shows, it would actually bring us drier air for the end of next week and the weekend. Most models simply show rain early to midweek next week.

Also a shoutout to our first business sponsor, Rosita’s Meat Market in French Harbor and Coxen Hole. Thanks for your support. If your business would like to support our forecasts, please contact me personally or go to patreon.com/roatanweather. Have a great Wednesday!

Good soggy morning Bay Islands. The highlights: Scattered showers today, tonight and tomorrow morning. Wednesday midday and Thursday we dry out. Friday small rain chances return. Better rain chances this weekend and possible heavy rain early next week. Right now the GFS is trying to create a tropical storm for next week, but most models say no and the GFS has a history of exagerrating things.

The headlines: Rain continues today and tomorrow, especially at night.

Midday Wednesday through Friday things look nice.

Our next norther approaches Saturday, looking to the tropics next Monday for potential tropical storms.

Good morning Bay Islands. Here’s our video for today.Unfortunately we have more rain to our east that is heading this way, probably for midmorning. Possible heavy rain tonight. Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. Real improvement Wednesday and especially Thursday. Some sort of storm is predicted at the end of next weekend into the following Monday. Have a great Sunday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Here is the video for today. The headlines. At 7:45 a.m. we have rain moving in from the east. Not as much rain today as yesterday and the trend will be for less rain each day into Monday, but we will still have scattered showers, mid to late week look nice with only isolated showers. A weak norther and the possibility of a low pressure system bringing rain late next weekend into early the following week. Have a great weekend.