Welcome to Roatan Weather

October 25, 2025

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Kerry Crawford who captured this ship in the storm from Mangrove Bight yesterday. We definitely have gotten the rain the last couple of days. Many locations west side and Utila got nearly 3 inches yesterday and another inch or so this morning. East side totals have been closer to an inch the last 24 hours. We will continue to have rain this morning. I am hopeful for a little dry time this afternoon before more rain tomorrow morning. I also think we will have some dryness tomorrow afternoon, but Monday through Wednesday look wet again. This isn’t directly the result of Melissa, but our northeast winds are the result of her.

On Saturday morning Melissa is estimated to have 70 mph winds, which is just below hurricane speed. She is drifting VERY slowly west. She is expected to start turning north sometime between now and Monday. Interestingly, many of the traditional computers are trying to push this storm to the east, between Jamaica and Haiti. That would be a good outcome for Jamaica, but Google DeepMind and many AI tools are keeping her south of Jamaica before turning north, with a direct hit somewhere near Kingston as a category 4 hurricane on Monday. That is a worst-case scenario for Jamaica, with perhaps two feet of rain before we get 150 mph winds.

Our main concern from this storm is waves. This morning we have 3 foot waves north side with 10 mph north winds. The further east we go, the wavier it gets. Buoys on the north side of Guanaja show waves almost 5 feet. We need to watch how far west this storm gets. We should get a little wavier north side through Monday, after which things should get calmer. If the storm grows and gets south or southwest of Jamaica, we could see 7 foot seas, especially north side of Guanaja, Sunday night into Monday. Have a great weekend!

October 23, 2025

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day is from Tricia Power of sunrise in West Bay.
We have quite a bit of rain around (almost an inch in West Bay as of 7 a.m.) that has nothing to do with Tropical Storm Melissa.

On satellite from 1-7 a.m. we see the clouds that have brought a lot of rain, especially to the west side and Utila. As of 7 a.m. the east side and Guanaja has gotten just a few hundredths of an inch, but that can change as there will be scattered showers around through the weekend. We still see another 3-4 inches possible over that time period, with plenty of clouds.
Winds this morning are from the northwest around 5 mph and seas about 1 foot north sided. We should see the winds stay mostly from the northwest and seas pick up to 2-3 feet as we get into the weekend.

If you get a little nervous about the weather on your trip to Roatan, check out the excursions at Jolly Roger Roatan They will find the calmest waters and make sure you get safely back to your destination on time.

You will notice from the big white circle that the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center thinks Tropical Storm Melissa will drift west over the next few days, but after that they are unsure where it is heading. A few headlines:
It should EVENTUALLY head northeast sometime next week, but the closer it gets to us early next week, the wavier our seas will be (potentially 7-8 feet in a worst case scenario)
It may bring some fairly strong north winds (20-25 mph) and that may mean that the weekend of Nov. 1-2 will be quite fresh.

Melissa is quite weak right now. It is sheared, meaning the storm is not straight up and down. The top of the storm is about 100 miles to the west of the bottom of the storm, which is keeping it weak, probably less that 45 mph. That should change this weekend as upper level winds calm down and allow the storm to straighten up and strengthen, probably to a category 3 hurricane. The people who should be most concerned about this are the folks in Jamaica which is most likely to take a direct hit. But as you see in the GFS spaghetti map, there are a few models that show it coming closer to us. It is still quite unlikely the storm itself hits us, but the closer it comes, the windier and wavier we will get next week.

The Euro computer thinks this storm will move to the west of Jamaica, and that would give us 8 foot seas by Tuesday.

By contrast the GFS thinks the storm will have moved north by then, giving us tranquil seas next Tuesday.

Whatever happens, if this storm gets as strong as they think it will, it should bring us some northerly winds next week, and perhaps some cooler air for the following weekend, as this temperature anomaly map shows. It also shows a major norther coming in about two weeks with even cooler air. As always, we will keep an eye on it.

October 21, 2025

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Lisa Hopkins Baker at Turquoise Bay.

Our potential tropical storm near Aruba looks a little stronger this morning and US military planes will be going to inspect it.

Let’s start with our weather this morning. At 7 a.m. we see some rain off to our east. Guanaja has picked up .02 as of 7 a.m. We will continue to deal with some scattered showers, but we shouldn’t get rained out completely. Winds continue to be quite mild and seas are around 1 foot in most locations.

Here is the current location of our storm, near Aruba. The projected path is a little further north this morning. Over the next few days it is expected to become a tropical storm (it probably already is a tropical depression) and it will slowly move toward Jamaica and Haiti. Most computers have it moving well to our northeast and away from us. The major models GFS, Euro and ICON agree on this.

There is one model that has it moving closer toward us. This is the Canadian model. It has a tropical storm building to our east before finally moving away from us a week from today. This goes to show how uncertain these computer models are. Is it possible we are affected by a tropical storm over the next week? Yes. Is it likely? No. We will continue to keep an eye on it.

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Tides continue to run on the high side. Have a great Tuesday!

Edit:

We now officially have a Tropical Storm Melissa. As far as I can remember, I think this may be our first named storm in the Caribbean. The main thing to know is this storm is expected to turn north EVENTUALLY, but there is still a lot of uncertainty about its track. The further west it goes, the stronger it will get. Right now I would say this has an 80 percent chance of turning north before having any effect on us, but that means there is something like a 20 percent chance it comes close enough to us to affect us.

This is Google’s AI weather forecast “spaghetti” map of the possible directions this storm takes. You will see the vast majority have it wobbling a bit, but eventually turning north over Haiti/Domincan Republic, though a few have it coming further west. Almost none have it making a direct hit on us, though there is one the has it wobbling for two weeks before coming our way, but that is one model out of about 100. So chances are VERY good that we aren’t affected in a big way. We’ll keep an eye on it.

October 17, 2025

Good morning. Drew Shuller captured these movie stars on West Bay Beach a couple of weeks ago.

This morning isn’t this sunny for most of us. Just since 5 a.m. West Bay has picked up well over an inch of rain with more possible this morning. We also have our first real possibility of a tropical storm in the Caribbean.

If you look real close at our 6-7 a.m. satellite, you can see the dark gray cloud top blossom over West Bay. We also see a lot of rain to our north. We’ll look for lots of scattered showers around this morning. These should weaken this afternoon. I’m not going to say it won’t rain this afternoon, but we should definitely see more sun.

Into the weekend we will continue to have scattered showers, mostly overnights and early mornings.

Here is the forecast from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center showing the storm we talked about earlier this week as it was coming off the coast of Africa. You will notice that the yellow box of its forecast movement is to our south. That is because we are starting to see the influence of cold fronts from our north that will tend to push this system south of us. It only has a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next week. Chances are good this has no effect on our weather, but we will keep an eye on it.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Winds and waves overall are fairly calm, but don’t tell the folks on West Bay Beach, because this is the time of year we see what little wave action we get going where it hardly ever goes, West Bay. We have 1-2 foot waves coming in on West Bay Beach from 10 mph west winds. Winds today will continue from the west, but we should see light and variable winds through the weekend. We are watching a very light norther perhaps for the end of the coming week that will bring more rain and perhaps 2-3 foot waves to West Bay by late next week.

Low tide is 12:30 p.m. Have a great Friday!

October 14, 2025

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Bob Jacobs, showing sunrise from Palmetto Bay.
We continue to have gorgeous weather with calm winds and seas and only small chances of showers. There will be a bit higher chance of rain tomorrow.

On satellite at 8 a.m. we see another rainmaker off the Mosquito Coast, but it should stay out there and most of us should stay dry today. Our light winds are out of the north today, but tomorrow they will shift to the west. Seas will remain quite calm, but most islanders associate a west wind with rain and our rain chances will go up to 40 or 50 percent tomorrow. After that we still look quite calm through the rest of the week into the weekend with 30-40 percent chances of showers, mostly overnights and early mornings.

Just off the coast of Africa we have a tropical wave that most models think will turn into a tropical storm of some sort. If it were to come our way, it would be two weeks away, so there is a great deal of uncertainty about exactly where it will go, so I wouldn’t get too worried. Also, about the same time toward the end of the month some models show us getting our first norther of the season. We’ll keep an eye on both.

If you are planning your trip to Roatan, come on down, the water is just perfect. And check out Jolly Roger Roatan for your excursion. They will get you back safely and on time.

Low tide is 10:30 a.m. Have a great Tuesday!

October 13, 2025

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Brenda Diamond who caught this twilight at the Utila Cays.

Gorgeous weather continues.

At 8 a.m. we have a storm well to the southeast of Guanaja. It isn’t moving much and I don’t think it’s likely to make it over here. We will continue to have very low chances of isolated showers today, maybe 20 percent. Tomorrow and the rest of the week we will have scattered showers 30-40 percent likely, mostly at night or early morning. Winds and seas will remain remarkably calm this week.

A lot of times we will get emails from scared North American tourists who have seen the extended forecast on a phone app and worry their vacation will be rained out. You will note the extended forecast shows scary 60 chances of rain. But two things to keep in mind.

1. Forecasts more than 5-6 days are quite inaccurate (this is progress. 20 years ago I would have said 1-2 days).

2. These rain chances aren’t based on a specific forecast but on the historic normal rain for rainy season.

So, don’t worry about long range forecasts.

Low tide is 9:20 a.m. Have a great week!

Rainfall for September 2025

We’re kind of late with our September 2025 rainfall total, but we’re going with 2.42 inches from Sandy Bay, but that amount is pretty typical acrosst he islands, except for Utila, which got over 4 inches. We only got about half the rain for a normal September.

Looking ahead, October is the first month of the rainy season, though the really rainy part usually start in the second half of the month. Most locations have already received around 2 inches for the month and there are good rain chances ahead in our forecast, thought still no signs of any tropical storms.

October 8, 2025

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day is a full moon over Fiddlers Bight from Winnie Standish. With very few clouds last night it was a good night to get a glimpse of the full moon, referred to in North America as the Harvest Moon. We have one day with a bit of wind before we get real calm again.

On satellite as we near 7 a.m., we see a good-sized storm in southern Belize, but that won’t bother us. We have mostly clear skies and will have a very low chance of rain today. Tonight into tomorrow morning we will have a 30 percent chance of an overnight or early morning shower.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to 18 mph east winds and seas around 3 feet. We should stay right around 15 mph east winds and 2-3 foot seas today, but tomorrow into the weekend we will get quite calm with periods of dead calm.

I’ve always said this is the best time of year to visit the island, with calm winds and seas and great weather. Look up Jolly Roger Roatan for the best excursions, whether you’re visiting via airplane or booking from a cruise.

Lowest tide is 3:50 a.m. Have a great Wednesday!

October 5, 2025

Good morning Bay Islands. This beauty of a crab was captured near CoCoView by Michele Southerland. If you find yourself wanting a glimpse of the islands in real time, CoCoView has a great live cam.
Weather continues to be great with most of us staying dry and fairly calm. We will have scattered showers and a little nightime wind this week.

The satellite view between 6:30 and 7:30 a.m. shows a few popcorn clouds over West Bay and Utila. There may be a shower or two in there, but there is a big storm off the Mosquito Coast, but like most of these storms, it will weaken as the day goes on. We will continue to have partly cloudy skies and scattered showers, mostly overnights and early mornings. This time of year it is very difficult to predict exactly where rain will fall because it is so random, but it is out there, and when you get it, you will get a quick downpour and then it will be over.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to very mild southerly winds and seas around 1 foot. We will stay mostly calm during daytimes, but at nights we will see east winds kick up to 10-15 mph and seas around 2 feet. Have a great Sunday!

October 3, 2025

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Traci Kaltenbacher who has found a unique way to frame a sunset with sandia (watermelon). There are indications of an increase in rain Sunday evening into early next week.

On the satellite from 7-8 a.m. we cann see partly cloudy skies over us, but we also see rain forming in the area of Mosquitia that I call our rain factory. We will have lower rain chances today and most of tomorrow (maybe 40 percent) but most models say that a low pressure system will move just to our north Sunday evening into early next week that will push our rain chances up to 60-70 percent daily.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: This morning we are a bit windier and wavier than we have been, with 10 mph east winds and seas about 2 feet. That should calm midday to 5-10 mph and 1 foot. Tomorrow will be about the same, but as we get into Sunday evening into early next week, we may see winds increase a bit, perhaps 15 mph and seas 2-3 feet. If the low pressure forms as expected, we may be seeing some westerly winds by Tuesday or Wednesday.

If you are visiting for Semana Morizanica, head over to Carniceria Rosita if your rental has a grill, to find the freshest meats on the island in Coxen Hole and French Harbour.

Tides remain on the high side. Have a great Friday!