Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Phil Sikora who captured the full moon from Carib Bight.
Today looks lovely. Tomorrow we see a little higher rain chances and those chances increase as we get to torrential rain Tuesday into Wednesday morning and then again Thursday.
This morning things look pretty nice. Today should be lovely with 5 mph east winds and 1 foot seas. Tomorrow east winds pick up to 10-15 mph and seas 2 feet, with a 40 percent chance of rain. Monday winds turn to the north, but not too bad, around 10 mph and seas. Monday night into Tuesday things get bad, with torrential rains and north winds 25-30 mph and seas 6-9 feet. Rain continues Wednesday, but the winds lighten a bit to 20 mph and seas 5 feet. Winds turn to the west pretty heavy Thursday 25-30 mph and seas 6-7 feet with rain continuing. The following weekend looks better.
This is the estimate of rainfall through noon Friday. This could be really bad for La Ceiba, with a foot of rain predicted and not much better for us with 10 inches. Watch out on those roads and get your 4X4 out.
Lowest tide is 6 a.m. tomorrow. Have a great weekend!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Davinci McNab and shows the full moon rising over Paya Bay Resort.
Around 5:45 a.m. West Bay picked up about a quarter of an inch in a quick downpour. Most of us have stayed dry and the next two days look great. After that, things go downhill.
Our 7 a.m. satellite shows a few clouds, especially near West Bay/West End, so there may be a shower or two still out there, but those should get less as the day goes on. Today and tomorrow will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny with only a few showers around. Most of us should stay dry. Rain chances increase Sunday and Monday in advance of our cold front. Some models say the front will arrive as early as Monday night, but most say Tuesday afternoon.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: For the next two day winds and seas will be very mild, 5 mph and seas around 1 foot. Sunday winds pick up a bit from the east at 15 mph and seas 2 feet. Monday morning looks like light and variable winds in advance of the cold front.
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Good morning Bay Islands. Joshua McLaughlin captured these nice cirrus clouds on a calm day in the Utila Keys. We won’t be quite this calm today, but our rain chances are not too bad for the next few days. But we have our largest norther of the season coming next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Guanaja has picked up about a half inch of rain from these clouds on satellite at 8 a.m. They are slowly trying to move toward Roatan, but I’m not sure how far they will make. Still this morning we will have a decent chance of showers, but most of the day should be dry. Our forecast is not too bad through the weekend, with daily chances of mostly morning or overnight showers.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Today we have 15 mph west winds and seas 3 feet. Tomorrow through Saturday our winds will get much calmer, around 5 mph, but seas will still be around 2 feet due to swell (waves from further away).
The big news is this cold front (norther) that will hit us Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. The computer models say this is quite a stong norther. You can see in the forecast how the wave of cold air hits Honduras like a wave hitting the beach. This is a classic setup that will bring us rainfall as bad as or worse than what we experienced this past weekend. Seas should also be high, with 7-10 foot seas.
This air is so cold it will cause the iguanas to fall out of trees in Florida. We don’t need to worry about falling iguana, but we should have some 60s Wednesday morning (19C)
When things get cold, it makes me want some warm steak or chorizo from Carniceria Rosita in Coxen Hole and French Harbour.
Lowest tide is 3 a.m. under a full moon. Have a great Wednesday!
For the month of October we are putting 14.86 inches in the books, from our standard location of Sandy Bay. West Bay did get a little more, around 19 inches, while the east side got a bit less. Nearly 15 inches is a little below average for October, the first month of rainy season, but through 4 days of November we already have 7-10 inches of rain around the island, so likely November will be much above average. Next week looks pretty rainy.
Good morning Bay Islands. No photo of the day today because we have a LOT OF RAIN to talk about. Lots of locations picked up 3-5 inches this morning after getting a quarter to half an inch before midnight. That is causing flooding in some areas and we all know what this does to our roads. I hate to say it, but there is this much or more rain coming, especially tonight into tomorrow morning.
Our satellite at 7:30 a.m. doesn’t look horrible and we should have some dry periods during the day today, but there will also be some periods of rain. We will be mostly cloudy and, unless we get a squall, seas shouldn’t be too bad today, with north winds 10 mph and seas 1-2 feet. Tonight winds will pick up to 15 mph out of the north and seas 2-3 feet and perhaps more if we get storms.
Speaking of storms, this is the Euro forecast for tomorrow at midday. The GFS and Euro are both picking up on big time rain tomorrow morning. The ICON is a little more optimistic, but I think another 5 inches of rain is a real possibility, with some thunder and wind. Please be careful out there on the roads. Things start looking better Wednesday, with rain becoming more scattered and less heavy.
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Lowest tide is 1 a.m. Have a great week and bring an umbrella!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes form Cesar Paguada in Oak Ridge. I know a lot of Canadians live on our islands and your pretty sad that your Blue Jays lost a nailbiter in extra innings in the World Series last night. Those of you who need to know what time it is in North America, don’t forget that most in the US and Canada moved back an hour last night, meaning we are now in sync with U.S. Central Time. We have a nice morning ahead, but the evening and the coming week look rainy.
On satellite at 7:30 a.m. we can see the clouds building in from the south. We will have increasing rain chances through the day and a chance of some thunder overnight. Monday and Tuesday look rainy, but rain amounts should go down a bit Wednesday into the later part of the week.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with calm winds and 1 foot seas. We should stay around there today, unless you get in a windy squall. Tomorrow looks a little windier with northwest winds 15 mph and seas 2-3 feet, especially north side.
Lowest tide is just after midnight. Have a great Sunday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day is a rainbow over Flowers Bay from Katy Pandy. The treasure at the end of our rainbow is this weekend’s gorgeous weather.
On satellite at 7 a.m. we can see a lot of high clouds, mostly to our south, that don’t contain rain. I’m not saying no one will get any rain through Sunday, but most of us should stay dry until Sunday evening. The reason is the drier air overhead. Most of us are enjoying dewpoints less than 70 (21C) degrees. That is much more comfortable than we are used to and makes the air feel fresh. I think many of us will wake up tomorrow and want some long sleeves to start the day, with temperatures right around 70 (21C).
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start today with northwest winds around 10 mph and seas 2-3 feet. Those should calm a bit today, but tomorrow and Sunday they should be quite calm. Winds will pick up Monday from the north 7-12 mph and seas around 2 feet.
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Lorena González-Vindel who captured this lightning strike in French Harbour last night. We have been hit pretty hard by lightning storms the last couple of days and many locations have gotten close to 6 inches over the last 48 hours.
To summarize our forecast, we will continue rainy this week, but a norther will arrive on Thursday bringing north winds and fresh temperatures. For the next two weeks, the driest day looks to be Saturday and maybe Sunday, which could be quite nice and maybe even require a jacket.
Let’s start with a quick look at rainfall since midnight. I know this isn’t everybody with a station, but it gives us an overview of who got the most rain.
We can see on satellite at 8 a.m. that West Bay is getting some clearing and some sun, but recently whenever we think things are going to clear out, the storms build back and take over again. Periods of heavy rain are likely through tomorrow. Thursday brings our norther and lots of clouds that drop a cool rain on us. That should continue through Friday morning, but as we get into Saturday, we should get into the drier side of the norther. When this happens we often get some gray clouds, but less rain. I think we should get close to 70 degrees (21C) Saturday morning and maybe Sunday morning. Sunday evening into next week the heavy rain returns.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with northwest winds 10 mph and seas around 3 feet northside. This afternoon we should see those calm a bit, but tomorrow the norther sweeps in as we can see from the current wind map. I expect northwest winds 20-25. Seas should be 5 feet northside tomorrow, 4 feet on Friday and around 2 feet Saturday.
This is the US GFS forecast for precipitation for the next two weeks. You can clearly see the norther come in Thursday and try to clear us out Saturday. Starting Sunday night you can see the rebound moisture bringing us rain. As the week goes on next week, you can see perhaps a little rotation in the rain, and I think it is possible the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center gives us a little yellow X for the possibility of a tropical depression. I don’t think this is likely, but I do think it is possible. We’ll keep an eye on it.
Over the next month we will have a couple of holidays particularly popular with North Americans (OK, Canadians have their own Thanksgiving at a different time). But when folks get together for these occasions they want the best meat on the island for grilling, and they get that at Carniceria Rosita with locations in Coxen Hole and French Harbour.
Low tide is 9 a.m. and 10 p.m. Have a great Wednesday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from friend of Roatan Weather Duane McNab taken overlooking Pristine Bay. We continue to deal with rain, but obviously nothing compared to what’s going on in Jamaica, which is officially one of the strongest storms in recorded history.
Here is our 9 a.m. satellite, just as Hurricane Melissa is making landfall. At 892 millibars of pressure it is among the strongest storms ever recorded. For comparison, Hurricane Mitch got down to 905 millibars. Sustained winds are 185 mph. Buoys recorded 22 foot waves near Alligator Reef. There will be a swath of western Jamaica that will be absolutely devastated by this storm.
As for us on the islands, you will notice a storm over Utila that is trying to move from west to east. The broad flow around Melissa has our winds coming out of the west around 20 mph and seas at 3-4 feet, especially north side. Winds will continue out of the west/northwest at 15-20 mph today and seas 3-4 feet from the northeast. All in all we are quite fortunate as this will be the strongest effect from Melissa for us. Winds will be around 15 mph from the north tomorrow with 3 foot seas. Thursday a norther comes in bringing 20 mph north winds and 5 foot seas. We will be quite rainy this week, but rain should become less on Friday and we have a possibility of a very nice weekend, with fresh temperatures and some sun. Rain and north winds look like they will return next Monday and Tuesday.
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Tides continue to be quite mild. Have a great Tuesday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Phil Sikora in Caribe Bight at sunset.
We continue to get rain at the pace of about an inch a day. That doesn’t look like it will change as we get into the week ahead, and we have a little norther coming Friday.
Here is the latest on Hurricane Melissa. This morning it has 140 mph sustained winds, a category 4. It hasn’t strengthened much this morning and we will have to wait to see if it reaches Cat5 by tomorrow night when it is expected to strike almost directly at Kingston, a city of over a million people. Tuesday night a somewhat weaker, but still strong hurricane will strike Santiago, Cuba, a city of over half a million, as well as the US base at Guantanamo, which has largely been evacuated.
If there is a bright side, it seems that this storm is very compact, and the northwest side, including Montego, might not get the brunt of the storm. I have some friends in the Montego area, and I’m hoping they might escape the worst of Melissa.
As for effects on our weather, the waves we were worried about, don’t look too bad. We are dealing with 3 foot seas north side, and at its worst, we shouldn’t see more than 4-5 foot seas this evening through Monday.
As the storm moves up the Atlantic, to the east of the US East Coast, it will pull down northerly winds, including a little norther on Friday that could bring 20-30 mph gusts and 5 foot seas north side. Of course, as with any norther, this will continue to bring the rain through the week. Have a great Sunday!
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