Sept. 23, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! The west side of the island got quite wet last night, but pretty much all of us got some beneficial rain. West Bay reported 2.24 inches in a downpour that happened about 7 p.m. yesterday. West End got about an inch. Sandy Bay picked up about a quarter of an inch overnight, Coral View almost an inch, Politilly .65 and here on Jonesville Point .72. Utila also picked up an inch.

This morning we have partly cloudy skies and there are showers out to sea around the island. The sea itself is as flat calm as I’ve ever seen it on the south side. Today and tomorrow should remain quite calm, but rain chances are good, especially in the overnight hours. We have a clearer idea of what the tropical storm/hurricane will do and while it won’t directly affect us, we will definitely have some indirect effects. Monday we will have a westerly breeze about 15 mph. Our rain chances may actually be lower as the hurricane makes its closest pass, moving toward the Caymans and Cuba early in the week, but we will keep westerly winds through the week and those winds might turn to the north next Thursday and Friday, bringing us rains and temperatures a few degrees cooler than usual, almost like a mini-cold front. Have a great Friday!

Tropical update for Sept. 23, 2022: Overnight we definitely got clarity as to where our storm is going and it is away from us. Tropical Depression Nine (probably soon to become Hermine) formed a little to the north of where we expected and it is expected to track west until tomorrow evening when a sharp turn to the north, toward Cuba and the Caymans is expected. The only change in our weather will be a switch in light breezes to westerly and MAYBE 2 foot (.6 meter) seas on the north side.

This is the US GFS model and you will notice that as it comes closest to us Monday we only get a moderate wind from the west on the very outskirts of the storm.

Sept. 22, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! We have a few clouds and showers around this morning with peeks of sunshine. Utila picked up about half an inch midday yesterday and .05 this morning. The location near Mud Hole picked up a whopping 2.46 inches yesterday. Most of the rest of us got little or no rain the last 24 hours ending 7 a.m.

Our calm winds and seas continue. It was a great day to be on the water yesterday and will be again today, except for the fact that there will probably be a few more clouds and showers around. Today is a day when it wouldn’t hurt to take an umbrella if you go out because there is a decent chance you will run into a downpour somewhere on the island. Winds will stay calm into the weekend, but we will continue to keep about a 40 percent chance of showers around. All eyes on the seas for what happens Monday with Invest 98L. Have a great Thursday.

Tropical update for Sept. 22, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! I’m not doing a video today because we don’t know a lot more today than we did yesterday. Invest 98L is still sitting on the coast of Venezuela and has not formed into a tropical cyclone. When it does, we will know more about what general track it will take, but until then it is just speculation.

The “spaghetti” map shows a wide array of possibilities for the track of this storm. The National Hurricane Center suggests that in two days this storm will have escaped from the outflow of Hurricane Fiona and should begin to form a cyclone. That means we’ll know more on Saturday, and if the storm comes our way, Monday is the day to look out for. We’ll keep an eye on it.

Sept. 21, 2022 Tropical Update: Good morning. We have a video explaining how forecast trends seem to indicate the Invest 98L (which should become Hermine) will move westward toward us before likely turning north toward Yucatan or Cuba around Monday. One correction: I say in the video that Eta and Iota were last year, but they were actually two years ago (time flies). Don’t forget to let folks know about our website roatanweather.org. Any who would like to chip in a buck or two to our weather service subscriptions can do so at patreon.com/roatanweather. Thanks!

Sept. 21, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! I want to start of by saying I may have personally caused the rain last night by saying yesterday that there was nothing in the forecast to fill our cisterns. Most of us got a good rain last night. I got a quarter of an inch on Jonesville Point and West Bay got almost an inch. West End got two thirds of an inch, Sandy Bay an inch and a quarter, Coral View a third of an inch, Politilly only .08, and Punta Blanca .36.

We will continue with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and hot conditions with little to no wind and calm seas into the weekend. There will continue to be a small chance of a shower, especially at night, as all eyes are on whatever may be coming at the beginning of next week. We’ll do a video tropical update for that. Have a great Wednesday!

Sept. 20, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! We have some pretty calm weather in our forecast. Right now the seas are hardly 1 foot (.3 meters) and they should be that way for the rest of the week. Get ready for some hot weather with mostly clear skies and almost no wind. There will be a low chance of a shower, especially at night, but probably nothing to fill our water tanks. Have a great Tuesday!

Tropical Update for Sept. 20, 2022. I decided there was enough info I needed to do a video. The core point is that the model agree this storm will become a tropical storm/hurricane at some point, the question is when and where as to how much it affects us. BTW, the next tropical storm name is Gaston.

The National Weather Service has now made the area we talked about this morning an area for investigation. Twenty percent chance of tropical development in the next five days.

Sept. 19, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! We finally got one of those nighttime showers to give us a little rain, with the emphasis on “a little.” It seems that everyone got wet, but no one got much more than a tenth of an inch of rain, enough to keep the dust down for one morning, perhaps, but not enough to fill our cisterns.

Today we will have east winds 7-12 mph and 2 foot (.6 meter) seas under mostly sunny skies. Tonight we will have another chance of a passing shower. After tonight, things get flat calm and pretty dry for the rest of the week. You can never rule out a popup shower, but it looks unlikely.

I do want to make mention of a system we are seeing on the satellite. You will notice that Hurricane Fiona is ravaging Puerto Rico and the DR this morning, but behind it, northeast of the South American coast is a cluster of showers and storm. Many of the computer models are making this into something that might move our way in about 10 days or so. Of course, computer models this far out are highly unreliable, but we will keep an eye on it. Have a great week!