Tropical update for December 1, 2023

Tropical update for Dec. 1, 2023: This update is that the 2023 hurricane season officially ended yesterday. In past years that hasn’t meant much, because we still had tropical storms in December and sometimes even January. This year everything is quiet and it really seems like it is over. This was an El Nino year and El Nino years usually have fewer Atlantic hurricanes. This year we had 20 named storms and, as you can tell from the map, none of them came close to us. The closest was Idalia which formed near Belize in August and made landfall in Florida. It had no effect on our weather, and at the time we would have loved some rain.

The bigger story this year was the Pacific hurricane season, with Hurricane Dora feeding the flames of the horrible Maui fires, Hurricane Hilary making an almost unheard of entry into southern California in the US, and worst of all, Hurricane Otis slamming into Acapulco, killing 50 and serving as a reminder that forecasting is not an exact science. Hurricane season starts again June 1.

December 1, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands and welcome to December. Today’s photo of the day is from Shelley Fuller of West Bay Beach. The beach will be a great place to enjoy the day, with clear skies and east winds around 20 mph. Seas for most of the island will be around 4 feet, perhaps 5 feet in the evening, but West Bay Beach is protected from heavy seas.
No rain today or tomorrow. Very small rain chances (20 percent) this weekend and a little better chance of a shower (30 percent) on Monday. Winds will be from the east 20-25 mph today with seas 4-5 feet. This weekend they will be 15-20 mph with seas 3-4 feet and Monday and Tuesday 12-17 mph and seas 2-3 feet.
In the extended forecast, we are looking for a weak cold front to get close the middle of next week giving us 50/50 rain chances and a slight turn to northeast winds. Have a great Friday!

November 30, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. Our weather photo of the day was taken by Ms Marilyn Elwin from right here in Jonesville Point. It was taken from the outlet of Media Luna looking east. In the foreground you see Oakridge and Calabash leading to New Port Royal. From this area you can see Helene, and on a clear day you can see Guanaja.

Many of us got a shower around 5 a.m. today. Similar amounts from a tenth to a quarter of an inch were recorded for yesterday morning as well.

At 7 a.m. Utila has some high clouds and there are a few popcorn clouds north of Roatan and northeast of Utila. There will be a small chance of rain this morning, but we should mostly be dry. This will be the beginning of a dry period that will last through the weekend, with only the slightest chance of a small shower. This morning our waves are still from the north at 4 feet, but during the day they will switch to northeast then east at 3 feet. Tomorrow through Sunday our easterly trade winds will be 20-25 mph and seas 4-5 feet.

Lowest tide is tomorrow at 5:30 a.m.
Our extended forecast has a slightly higher chance of rain Monday, maybe 30 or 40 percent, and an increased chance of rain Wednesday through Friday next week, though the norther is looking weaker and weaker. Have a great Thursday.

November 29, 2023

Our photo of the day was taken this past Saturday by Burt Bright. He was flying over the cold front that was then in Georgia and is now pushing into the Gulf of Mexico. On Burt’s picture …

… and in the satellite you can see the cool, dry air pushing clouds in front of it. We have been on the warm side of those clouds, enjoying mostly dry weather.

We have a few showers around this morning and Utila picked up about a tenth of an inch in the 6 o’clock hour. We will continue to see a few showers through the morning and partly cloudy skies and possibly an isolated shower this afternoon. Rain chances go up tonight and early tomorrow morning, then starting tomorrow afternoon through the weekend we look dry and windy. As the cold front gets close today, we will have east/northeast winds 10-15, but seas swelling from the north to 4 feet (they are 3 feet this morning). Winds turn due east tomorrow and will be strong (22-27 mph) through the weekend, giving 5-foot seas, especially on the south side. We’re still watching the possibility of a norther on Thursday or Friday of next week. Have a great Wednesday!

November 28, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. We are in full moon and Marcela Husband captured that perfectly in today’s photo of the day from Sandy Bay.

Yesterday a lot of those popcorn clouds had rain in them, especially on the east side.

Since midnight rainfall totals have been light, and mostly on the west side.

On satellite this morning we see clouds, especially southeast of Guanaja, moving to the west. Today we will have periods of sun, periods of clouds and passing showers. These conditions will continue through tomorrow and perhaps Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon through the weekend things get much drier.

In our wide satellite view we can see a cold front to our north that is stalling. As it gets a bit closer to us, our waves will pick up on the north side. Right now we’re seeing 3 foot waves around the island but tomorrow that should get up to 4 foot waves, especially on the north side. Thursday night winds get stronger from the east at 20-25 mph and seas get up to 4-5 feet, especially on the south side. That strong east wind will be with us through the weekend.

Lowest tide is around 4 a.m. tomorrow. Have a great Tuesday!

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Nov. 27, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. This morning we feature a photo from Matt Harper taken … this morning. A small shower was spotted looking northwest toward Fantasy Island near French Key. It is a good photo for the day because we are going to be seeing an increase in scattered showers through Thursday morning, especially starting tonight.

This morning we are seeing a few “popcorn” clouds that may contain small showers like the one Matt photographed. Today rain chances will be quite small, maybe 20 percent, but rain chances will be good this evening through tomorrow morning and we will have scattered showers around through Thursday morning, especially in the overnights and morning hours.

Winds this morning are 15 mph from the east and seas are 2-3 feet and will remain that way through Thursday morning, though toward Wednesday seas may pick up to 3-4 feet, especially on the south side as a cold front stalls to our north. I think our chance for a heavy rain shower is best Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

After Thursday morning our rain chances go way down into the weekend, but our east winds pick up to 20 mph and 25 mph at night, giving us seas 4-5 feet, especially on the south side.

Lowest tide is 3:07 A.M. Have a great week!

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November 26, 2023

Good morning, Bay Islands! Our picture of the day was taken at Camp Bay Beach yesterday by Dalton McCoole (I love that name).
If you want to go to Camp Bay Beach today the weather should be just as lovely, if a little more choppy, with east winds around 15 mph and seas 2-3 feet outside the reef. We’re going to keep similar winds and seas into the middle of next week. Toward the end of the coming week east winds get windier and seas get choppier, especially on the south side.
We should stay dry today and tomorrow morning. Monday evening through Thursday morning we will have scattered showers as a cold front stall to our north. Most of our rain will be in the evening and early morning, and we will still have periods of sun Tuesday and Wednesday, but a tropical downpour can bring a quick half inch to an inch in many areas. Toward the end of the week things get drier and windier. Have a great Sunday!

November 25, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands! Around 4 a.m. a little rain fell from Sandy Bay to Hottest Sparrow. The rest of us stayed dry.

At 7 a.m. we continue to have partly cloudy skies though it looks like there might be a shower just to the east of Guanaja.

We’ll keep a chance of an isolated shower today, but most of us will stay dry and partly cloudy with east/northeast winds 5-10 mph. Tomorrow the chance of a shower in incredibly small and it will be a little windier, with east winds 10-15 mph and seas 2-3 feet. Those conditions continue into Monday. Winds and seas get calmer midweek before stronger east winds return for the end of the week.

A cold front will stall over Yucatan on Wednesday, meaning most of the rain will be to our north. Our chance at an isolated shower will go up to around 40 percent for Wednesday.

Lowest tide is 1:40 a.m.

Our photo of the day comes via MasTv Roatan, who had this photo submitted by Mark Moore who said he spotten an orca (also known as a “killer whale” though they only kill fish) near Guanaja. According to island native Errol Ducker, orcas pass the islands in the months of November and December. Have a great weekend!

November 23, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. Our picture of the day is of West Bay Beach and comes from Myra Welcome. Thanks Ms. Myra!

No rainfall recorded this morning on the big island. Utila got a shower about 2:30 a.m.

We wake up to calm winds and seas and lots of broken clouds. These clouds are drifting to the west. I have arrows pointing to the ones that may contain a shower. We will keep a 30 percent chance of catching a quick shower, especially this morning, but it shouldn’t amount to much.

We still see the tropical wave we’ve been watching this week approaching the Mosquito Coast. This should bring more moisture our way tomorrow. I’d say a 40 percent chance of a shower tomorrow and a 50 percent chance Friday night into Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon through Monday chances are back down to 30 percent and rise a little the middle of next week, but no big storms in the forecast, just scattered showers and lots of sun and clouds.

Winds and seas will be quite calm today through Saturday. Winds pick up from the east Sunday and Monday to 12-17 mph and seas to 2-3 feet before getting calm again Tuesday and Wednesday.

Lowest tides are coming at midnight. Have a great Thursday!

November 22, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. We wake up to very calm winds and seas about 1.5 feet. Those calm winds and seas should continue into the weekend. We’re still watching a tropical wave that is no longer listed as a tropical threat by the National Hurricane Center, but we should still watch for increases in our rain chances, especially Friday night into Saturday morning.
We will continue to have mostly clear skies and almost no chance of rain today, but tomorrow we will have partly cloudy skies and a low chance of an isolated shower. Clouds will be increasing into Thursday night and Friday we will have a chance of showers, especially in the evening and I think the chance of getting wet is quite good Friday night into Saturday morning, at least 50 percent and that number might get bigger. Saturday afternoon and Sunday we will have a few showers around and about a 30 percent chance of rain. Low tides are 11:30 a.m. and 11:30 p.m. Have a great Wednesday!

Here’s our video forecast, including a discussion of why it is warmer on the south side in the mornings.