April 24, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Dian Lynn and was taken from Sundowner’s in West End. We got a little rain yesterday evening, especially in West Bay, which picked up .13 of an inch around 5:30. We’re not seeing as much rain as we hoped for this morning.

On our satellite we see some popcorns clouds, especially north of Puerto Castillo and Trujillo and a few near Utila. Our station in Utila picked up .01 of an inch this morning. All of this is moving west, but there’s not a whole lot to our east.

Here is the radar image showing that shower just north of the mainland moving to the west. We will keep a small chance of a passing shower, especially this morning.

For the next week or so, we will continue to only have very small chances of a passing shower, but the long-range forecast shows more moisture in the atmosphere midweek next week and a bit of a higher chance of a shower. Let’s hope so.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We have been holding steady with east winds at 10-15 mph and seas 2-3 feet. That will continue until Friday night, when our winds pick up to 25-30 mph. Saturday night and Sunday night also look windy, after which next week we should be back to mostly 15 mph east winds.

I have been planning to go to Guanaja, but my accommodations fell through. I’d still like to go. I thought I would throw it out there that if you know of a reasonably-priced place in Guanaja for a few days in early May let me know. Also I would need to know how best to get between the accommodations and Bonacca Key. Thanks!

Low tide is 2:30 p.m. Have a great Wednesday!

April 23, 2024

Our photo of the day comes from Brad Turnelle in Parrot Tree and shows our near-full moon. This year, because the full moon occurs so close to spring equinox, Semana Santa and Passover were separated by an entire month.

We see a few popcorn clouds on satellite, especially to our west and south. It is quite possible the Cayos Cochinos got a small shower this morning. We will keep a small chance of a shower through the morning with east winds 10-15 mph and seas around 2 feet. We will have our best chance of rain tonight into tomorrow morning with a 30 percent chance. After that, the chances go down for the rest of the week, so let’s hope we get some. Winds will stay moderate until we get into the weekend, when they will pick up to 20 mph during the day and 25-30 mph at night.

It’s been a lot of fun following Mitch Cummins trip through Central America. That dude knows how to have a good time. He also knows how to make great pet food, so look him up at Roatan Pets.

Low tide is 2 p.m. as we officially move into full moon. Have a great Tuesday!

Why Roatan has to worry about hurricanes a lot less than Florida

I found this graphic online that gives the hurricane danger of various countries on a scale of 0 to 10. You will notice that the countries with the highest risk are to our northeast. That is because the strongest hurricanes tend to form off the west coast of Africa and move in a west/northwesterly direction. That means the majority of hurricanes are north of us by the time they get into the Caribbean. I put a brown arrow between us and Cuba to show the general direction of the hurricanes that come closest to us. Most of them thread the needle and head toward the Yucatan of Mexico and perhaps into the Gulf of Mexico to give them headaches. You will notice that Nicaragua is a low risk country for hurricanes, but in 2020, the two recent hurricanes that had the greatest impact on Honduras, struck the Mosquito Coast of Nicaragua before moving inland and flooding out the mainland. We got very limited impacts on Roatan, because the mainland took the brunt of the storm. We keep an eye on hurricanes, especially between late August and early November, but we have to worry about hurricanes a lot less than Florida, which is in the bull’s eye for strong hurricanes moving across the Atlantic.

April 22, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Kristi Voves in Palmetto Bay and she has a sunset view that I’m jealous of.

This morning we have a small shower to the east of Puerto Cortex and some high, hazy clouds over our heads, but otherwise we are dry. We will continue to have 15 mph east winds and 3 foot seas, and in the afternoons winds will turn to the northeast. Tomorrow morning we will have a 10 percent chance of a morning shower and Wednesday there will be a 20 percent chance.

Low tide is 1:30 a.m. Have a great week!

April 21, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Jim Goodwyn in Camp Bay. At first I thought these were birds, but they are actually the paragliders you often see on the Camp Bay side, which is perfectly situated to catch the easterly winds but has a little less wave action, being on the north side. We will continue to have moderate 15 mph winds and seas 2-3 feet until midweek, when winds calm a bit.

We are mostly clear this morning, with some hazy clouds over Utila. We will be sunny and dry today, but starting tomorrow we will have small rain chances, especially in the morning. Tomorrow the chance is 10 percent, but it moves up to 20 percent Tuesday and 30 percent Wednesday and Thursday.

Great news! we have a the updated English price list for the best meats on the island at Carniceria Rosita!

Low tides are 1 p.m. and 1:30 a.m. Have a great Sunday!

April 20, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Tom DeMille in Palmetto Bay and shows one of our favorite island residents, the hummingbird, with a nice cumulus cloud in the background. We have a few of those cumulus clouds around this morning.

Speaking of Palmetto Bay, they along with other midisland residents got a small shower this morning around 3:30 a.m.

At 7:30 a.m. there are a few popcorn clouds around, especially on the east side. I got a little sprinkle here on Jonesville Point, but not enough to amount to anything. We will continue with a small chance of a shower this morning, but otherwise we will be mostly sunny with winds from the east at 15 mph. We will remain mostly dry this weekend, but as we get into next week, especially the middle of the week, we will have a better chance of morning showers, perhaps a 30 percent chance each morning.

Low tide is 12:45 p.m. Have a great weekend!

April 19, 2024 and what is a fair-weather water spout?

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Christina Matthews and west taken from Iron Shore on West Bay. It is a waterspout, a fairly common occurrence in our tropical waters, so I thought in comments I would talk a little about what a waterspout is and is not.

There are two types of water spouts: tornadic and fair-weather. We do not have tornadic water spouts for the simple reason that we do not have tornadoes at all this close to the equator. They typically form along the dark, flat bases of a line of developing cumulus clouds (what I like to call popcorn clouds). They develop when the air at the base of the cumulus cloud is much cooler than the temperature of the surface waters, causing an updraft. They generally don’t move very much, so they are easy for boaters to avoid, and they last an average of 5 to 10 minutes. So click a picture fast, because it won’t last long.

On satellite this morning we see some cumulus clouds north of Puerto Cortes, and who knows? Maybe they are seeing a water spout over there. These are the kind of clouds that produce them and also some small morning showers.

Here is the radar at 7 a.m. showing a line of showers north of Puerto Cortes. Unfortunately these are moving to the west away from us. We will stay high and dry. Each morning we have maybe a 5 percent chance of a shower, but Monday through Wednesday morning next week looks to be a little higher, maybe 20 percent chance of a small morning shower.

 Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Our east winds will remain consistent, at 15 mph from the east with 2-3 foot seas daytime and 20 mph from the east and 3 foot seas nighttime. Just a quick reminder that you still have time to take advantage of the 25 percent discount on trips on the Galaxy Wave to La Ceiba. Tickets can be bought this month for future trips!

Low tides are 12:30 p.m. and 12:30 a.m. Have a great Friday!

Why is it hotter in Roatan than my weather app says?

I get occasional questions about the temperature forecast. I generally don’t do a temp forecast because the temperature is generally the same, with the exception of a few days each year where we have northers. But one thing that has an impact on how hot it is where you are, is whether you are on the sea getting a sea breeze or if you are inland. Let’s take a look at the only weather station I can find that’s a bit inland. It’s call West Bay Hills, on the road between West Bay and West End (if this is your station, please send me a message so I can have your contact info). Let’s see how its temps for yesterday’s high compared to a nearby station on the sea.

Yesterday’s high temperature there was 91.5 degrees (33C). This is higher than the majority of weather stations on the island because it is not right on the sea, as is every other weather station we have.

That high temperature in combination with the humidity (it is pretty much always this humid on the island) give us a heat index at a whopping 106 (41C). Somebody give me a towel.

Let’s take a look at the high temperature yesterday at a location called Keyhole Bay Wrightwood (if this is your station, please contact me so I can get your contact info.) It is right on the sea, picking up a nice seabreeze. Let’s see what effect that has on its temps.

Yesterday’s high in West Bay came in at 86.7 F (30.4C). That’s a good five degrees cooler than our inland weather station about a mile away. The difference is caused by the cooling effect of a wind coming off the sea. Evaporating water cools the air.

In combination with our humidity, the weather station on the sea in West Bay gives us a heat index of 97 (36C). That’s very hot, but not as hot as the inland weather station.

Lots of visitors look at these weather apps for an indication of temperatures. This one is The Weather Channel and it is pretty close on its forecast for lows. We will probably be around 79-80 (26C) for lows, but it is quite low on the forecast highs. We will probably be 87 (on the water) to 91 (inland) for highs (30-33C). This is pretty common on these weather apps. They also get the temperature wrong in the winter when we have northers. A few degrees can make a big difference.

April 18, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Handford McLaughlin at Camp Bay Beach. Handford has been a great help getting our congregation over to Helene in his safe, sturdy, speedy boat. Look him up at Handfordtours.com.

On our satellite this morning there are a very few popcorn clouds, including one over part of Guanaja at 7 a.m. I guess it’s possible for a small shower, but chances are like 3 percent. We will continue to have 15 mph daytime east winds and 20 mph nighttime east winds and seas 3 feet on the southside and dry conditions into the weekend.

Who needs Taco Tuesday when you can have Taco Thursday during Happy Hour 4-7 p.m. at Ikigai by Robby Molina in French Harbor? $2 tacos and great deals on adult beverages.

Low tides are midnight and noon. Have a great Thursday!

El Niño/La Niña effect on the Bay Islands Part 1

Now that our boring forecast is out of the way, let’s talk about what the months ahead are going to be like. Let’s start with what our weather is normally. If you check out my Q&A here at https://roatanweather.org/frequently-asked-questions-about-roatans-weather/ you’ll learn that I usually don’t do temperature forecasts, because temperature here is almost always the same, especially in the period April-early October. If it isn’t really hot, it’s because it is cloudy and/or very windy. If the wind is calm and it’s sunny, you’re going to be sweating and wanting to jump in the ocean. By that measure, our hottest months are usually May and September, times when we have very little cloud cover and calmer winds (esp. September). June-August is not quite so hot, because we get a few more waves of moisture from our east giving us showers, especially in the mornings. In 2023, we had one of the hottest, driest summers in memory. Our sea temperature got up to 90 degrees (32C) and resulted in coral bleaching. Some people say this is because of our strong El Niño combined with global warming. So, what does this summer hold for us?

According to the US weather service NOAA, forecasters estimate an 85% chance that El Niño will end and the tropical Pacific will transition to neutral conditions by the April–June period. There’s a 60% chance that La Niña will develop by June–August. El Niño is caused by warmer than normal waters in the eastern Pacific. La Niña is caused by cooler than normal waters in the easter Pacific. What does that mean for us? As far as I can tell, not much, at least for our day-to-day weather. I went back through 25 years of rainfall statistics and could find no correlation between El Niño/La Niña years and how much precipitation we got.

And as this chart shows, a strong El Niño or La Niña doesn’t seem to have much effect on our sea temperatures here in the Western Caribbean. This means that the effects on us have more to do with global trends. Are water temps higher globally? Is there less wind shear, and therefore strong hurricanes in the Atlantic making their way here? We will talk about that later in the week.