June 18, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! There is now a zero percent chance of tropical development from our storm, though there is still an area of scattered showers around. Most of us have gotten light amounts of rain over the last 24 hours ending 6 a.m.

Today will be mostly calm, with seas at 2 feet (.6 meters) and mostly cloudy skies with peeks of sun. We will have about a 40 percent chance of scattered showers.

Tomorrow will continue calm with scattered showers, though in the evening winds should pick up to around 20 mph and seas up to 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters).

Monday rain chances are lower, perhaps 20 percent, and conditions windier in the 20-25 mph range and seas at 4 feet.

Right now winds look calmer Wednesday through Saturday and rain chances are pretty good throughout the week, though again, these are scattered squalls that come and go with periods of sunshine. Have a great weekend!

June 17, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Midday yesterday most of the western half of the island got a good dose of rain. Sandy Bay and West Bay reported around half an inch, while West End got an inch and a half. Here on Jonesville Point we got no rain yesterday or as of 6 a.m. today, but hopefully that changes soon.

The satellite image here is from 6 a.m. today and, as you can see, the majority of the precipitation is to our east. Believe it or not, the center of the low pressure system is almost directly over Guanaja and should move westward as the day goes on. But with many low pressure systems, the west and south side are the driest. That means a good chance of rain today, but probably not a lot of rain and probably some sun as well. Winds will also be quite calm. Rain chances will perhaps be greater as we get into Saturday and Sunday. Winds should stay calm until Sunday night, picking up into the 20 mph range Sunday evening. Monday is looking quite windy right now, with winds possibly around 30 mph. Decent rain chances stick around through most of next week, perhaps getting a little less toward the end of the week. Have a great Friday!

June 16, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Mid- and west- island locations got from half to three quarters of an inch of rain yesterday morning, while we on Jonesville Point only got .04 of an inch.

All eyes are on the storm that now has only a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical system. It looks more and more like it will just be an unorganized group of storms, especially as it passes over us the next 36 hours.

In the intensity models, you will notice that all models (except for one that has the system completely dying) have the storm at only 20-30 mph peak winds as it passes over us tomorrow. That is more of a squall than a storm.

Winds and seas should be fairly calm over the next couple of days and there will be a good chance of showers, especially starting tonight and running through tomorrow.

The European model (and many others) put our rain total at under an inch.

The US GFS model says about 2 inches for most of us through the weekend (the maps shown here are rain totals through midnight Sunday night/Monday morning). There will also be a chance of a rumble of thunder.

Saturday should be a very calm day and nice, if a little cloudy.

Trade winds start back up on Monday and Monday night could be quite windy. Have a great Friday!

June 15, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Today there is less belief that the storms off the coast of Costa Rica will become a tropical storm. The chance is down to 30 percent, according to the US National Weather Service. If the storms stay to our north, there is a good chance we will only get a little less than an inch of rain out of this on average.

Today winds should stay in the 15-20 mph range, with seas at 3 feet (1 meter) and a low chance of a scattered shower.

Tomorrow we have about a 40 percent chance of rain with winds from the east/northeast at 10-15 mph and seas at 2 feet.

Friday and Saturday are the days to look for rain, with west/southwest winds 5-10 mph.

Rain chances of around 40 percent continue Sunday through Tuesday. Have a great Wednesday!

June 14, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Yesterday brought a lot of clouds but not much rain after the early morning hours. It also got quite windy. I picked up 38 mph winds on Jonesville Point.

Today will continue windy and partly to mostly cloudy, with winds 25-30 mph from the east and 5 foot (1.6 meter) seas. Rain chances today are low, in the 20 percent range.

Tomorrow things should calm a little, to 17-22 mph and seas at 3 feet (1 meter). Rain chances continue low.

The big story is the mass of showers between Colombia and Nicaragua. Over the next few days it is expected to move northwestward. Yesterday the U.S. GFS model was trying to turn this into a tropical storm. Today it looks much less organized and much more likely to just be a lot of scattered showers starting Thursday evening and running through Saturday. Several models move most of the moisture into the Pacific to our south. The National Weather Service gives it a 40 percent chance of tropical development over the next five days. We’ll keep an eye on it.

June 13, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Most of us have seen a litttle rain, with the emphasis on a little. As of 6:30 a.m. the big winner has been Punta Blanca with a quarter of an inch, but for most of us it has just been a few hundredths.

As you can see in this morning’s satellite, there is a big bank of clouds to our north and west. That will keep us in the clouds most of the day and with a decent chance of rain, especially on the east side of the island and definitely for Guanaja. Winds should pick up this evening, from the east around 25 mph.

Tuesday and Wednesday still look like the dry days of the week.

Tuesday will be especially windy put of the east at 20-25 mph, but Wednesday will be calmer at 12-17 mph.

Thursday the winds calms and the rain chances increase into the weekend.

The GFS is trying to spin up a tropical storm to pass just to our north on Friday, while the European model puts it into the weekend. The National Weather Service gives it a 30 percent chance of development over the next five days. I’ll be very interested in seeing their opinion tomorrow.

June 12, 2022: Just a quick update today. Though we have been mostly clear, widely scattered showers are predicted to begin this evening and continue through tomorrow. Probably not a constant rain, but most of us should get some. Tuesday and Wednesday rain chances will be low before rising again Thursday into next weekend. Have a great Sunday!

June 11, 2022: Good morning Roatan! Last night about 10:30 we got a sharp gust of wind at 37 mph and a quick downpour of .15 of an inch. Politilly got about a tenth of an inch early this morning. If you got some rain, let us know in comments.

Today will be mostly sunny with only a small chance of a passing shower and east winds 20 mph. Seas will be 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters).

Tomorrow rain chances go up considerably, especially in the evening and overnight. Rain chances are high through Monday.

Rain chances are a little lower Tuesday and Wednesday and get higher Thursday through the weekend. Winds also get calmer starting Thursday.

Have a great weekend!

June 10, 2022: Good morning Roatan! This is the time of year when visitors to our island look at their preferred weather app and see a bunch of 60 percent rain chances and freak out thinking their vacation is going to be ruined. As my wife likes to say, that just means that you just sit back for a half hour or so, sip on your favority beverage under a shelter, and wait for the rain to pass and the sun to come back out. Those higher rain chances will be with us, especially as we get into next week.

Today we will have only a small chance of a passing shower with morning clouds and afternoon sun. Winds will be from the east 15-20 mph, getting toward 25 mph this evening, with 3-4 foot seas (1-1.3 meters).

Tomorrow the chance of a shower will be slightly higher, perhaps 40 percent, with similar winds and seas.

Sunday evening into Monday we have that 60-70 percent chance of rain. Conditions will be windier than normal for a rainy period, with continued 20 mph winds. Have a great Friday!

June 7, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! The wind has started picking up a bit and that helps with the heat.

Wind today will be 10-15 mph under mostly sunny skies. Seas will be 3 feet (1 meter) on the south side. Winds rise to 20-25 mph and seas to 5 feet (1.6 meters) with a small chance of a scattered shower toward evening.

Tomorrow winds will be 15-20 mph with 3-4 foot seas during the day and 22-27 mph with 5 foot seas at night. Again there is a small chance of seeing a passing shower.

Rain chances increase this weekend. Have a great Tuesday!