Good morning Roatan! We’ve had a gorgeous 24 hours of weather and that should continue with moderate winds and seas and mostly clear skies. Wednesday night into Thursday morning there will be a higher chance of rain as a wave of unsettled weather passes over.
The National Hurricane Center still gives our South American storm a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical system. You will note we are outside the forecast for the center to pass over, what is called the “cone of uncertainty”. If this becomes a tropical storm (probably Bonnie) or a hurricane, the center is most likely to strike Nicaragua or even Costa Rica. But that doesn’t mean it won’t affect us this weekend.
This is this morning’s US GFS forecast. If this were to happen, the storm would strike the Mosquito Coast of Nicaragua, but the storm would then move inland and toward us. If this were to happen, we could expect winds up to 40 mph Sunday evening. This is just one possible outcome. The European model has this storm skipping across Costa Rica and becoming a Pacific hurricane.