June 22, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! On the far western end of the island we had a morning shower giving us a few hundredths of an inch.
Today we will have moderate winds from the east/northeast at 10-15 mph and seas at 2 feet. Partly cloudy skies will give us a 30 percent chance of a passing shower.
Thursday and Friday winds will be light and variable with 1 foot seas. Those will be beautiful days for boatin, snorkeling and diving, or just sitting on the beach if that is your thing. Chance of rain should be about 40 percent on Thursday but only 20 percent on Friday. Winds pick up to 10-20 mph this weekend and the beginning of next week. Have a great Wednesday!
June 20, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! No rain the last 24 hours.
This morning we wake up with another big bank of clouds to our east, but again, it should dissipate as the day goes on. Winds will be from the east/southeast at 20 mph, increasing to around 30 mph this evening. Seas will be 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters). There will be a small chance (20 percent) of a scattered shower.
Tuesday winds will continue in the 20-25 mph range, but they will start to calm Wednesday and Thursday through Saturday morning should be quite calm, beautiful days on the sea.
Throughout the week there will be about 30 percent chance of a scattered shower. Right now it looks like the chance will increase over the weekend. Have a great week!
June 19, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Well, at least the cloud cover has kept the temperatures down. No rain over the last 24 hours as of 7 a.m. on Roatan. Radar shows some showers to our west. The recording station on Utila seems to be down, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they got some rain. There is a large complex of rain to our north and east this morning. That’s no guarantee we’ll get rain today, but we have a 50/50 shot. Winds and seas will stay calm until this evening, when winds pick up to around 20 mph. Tomorrow looks windy, with east winds 15-25 mph and perhaps 30 mph in the evening, out of the east. Rain chances are around 30 percent tomorrrow. Winds will get calmer Wednesday through the end of the week. It looks like all week we will have about a 30-40 percent chance of a shower. Have a great Sunday!
June 18, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! There is now a zero percent chance of tropical development from our storm, though there is still an area of scattered showers around. Most of us have gotten light amounts of rain over the last 24 hours ending 6 a.m.
Today will be mostly calm, with seas at 2 feet (.6 meters) and mostly cloudy skies with peeks of sun. We will have about a 40 percent chance of scattered showers.
Tomorrow will continue calm with scattered showers, though in the evening winds should pick up to around 20 mph and seas up to 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters).
Monday rain chances are lower, perhaps 20 percent, and conditions windier in the 20-25 mph range and seas at 4 feet.
Right now winds look calmer Wednesday through Saturday and rain chances are pretty good throughout the week, though again, these are scattered squalls that come and go with periods of sunshine. Have a great weekend!
The National Weather Service advisory for invest 93L, the official name of the storm passing nearby today.
June 17, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Midday yesterday most of the western half of the island got a good dose of rain. Sandy Bay and West Bay reported around half an inch, while West End got an inch and a half. Here on Jonesville Point we got no rain yesterday or as of 6 a.m. today, but hopefully that changes soon.
Satellite image from 6 a.m. today.
The satellite image here is from 6 a.m. today and, as you can see, the majority of the precipitation is to our east. Believe it or not, the center of the low pressure system is almost directly over Guanaja and should move westward as the day goes on. But with many low pressure systems, the west and south side are the driest. That means a good chance of rain today, but probably not a lot of rain and probably some sun as well. Winds will also be quite calm. Rain chances will perhaps be greater as we get into Saturday and Sunday. Winds should stay calm until Sunday night, picking up into the 20 mph range Sunday evening. Monday is looking quite windy right now, with winds possibly around 30 mph. Decent rain chances stick around through most of next week, perhaps getting a little less toward the end of the week. Have a great Friday!
The US National Hurricane Center only gives our storm a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical system.
June 16, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Mid- and west- island locations got from half to three quarters of an inch of rain yesterday morning, while we on Jonesville Point only got .04 of an inch.
All eyes are on the storm that now has only a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical system. It looks more and more like it will just be an unorganized group of storms, especially as it passes over us the next 36 hours.
Intensity guidance model that starts at midnight Thursday morning.
In the intensity models, you will notice that all models (except for one that has the system completely dying) have the storm at only 20-30 mph peak winds as it passes over us tomorrow. That is more of a squall than a storm.
Winds and seas should be fairly calm over the next couple of days and there will be a good chance of showers, especially starting tonight and running through tomorrow.
The European model (and many others) put our rain total at under an inch.
The US GFS model says about 2 inches for most of us through the weekend (the maps shown here are rain totals through midnight Sunday night/Monday morning). There will also be a chance of a rumble of thunder.
Saturday should be a very calm day and nice, if a little cloudy.
Trade winds start back up on Monday and Monday night could be quite windy. Have a great Friday!
The National Weather Service gives the storms only a 30 percent chance of forming a tropical storm.
June 15, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Today there is less belief that the storms off the coast of Costa Rica will become a tropical storm. The chance is down to 30 percent, according to the US National Weather Service. If the storms stay to our north, there is a good chance we will only get a little less than an inch of rain out of this on average.
Today winds should stay in the 15-20 mph range, with seas at 3 feet (1 meter) and a low chance of a scattered shower.
Tomorrow we have about a 40 percent chance of rain with winds from the east/northeast at 10-15 mph and seas at 2 feet.
Friday and Saturday are the days to look for rain, with west/southwest winds 5-10 mph.
Rain chances of around 40 percent continue Sunday through Tuesday. Have a great Wednesday!
A few of the models put the storm into tropical storm strength within 3 days.
June 14, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Yesterday brought a lot of clouds but not much rain after the early morning hours. It also got quite windy. I picked up 38 mph winds on Jonesville Point.
Today will continue windy and partly to mostly cloudy, with winds 25-30 mph from the east and 5 foot (1.6 meter) seas. Rain chances today are low, in the 20 percent range.
Tomorrow things should calm a little, to 17-22 mph and seas at 3 feet (1 meter). Rain chances continue low.
Satellite image at 6:45 a.m.
The big story is the mass of showers between Colombia and Nicaragua. Over the next few days it is expected to move northwestward. Yesterday the U.S. GFS model was trying to turn this into a tropical storm. Today it looks much less organized and much more likely to just be a lot of scattered showers starting Thursday evening and running through Saturday. Several models move most of the moisture into the Pacific to our south. The National Weather Service gives it a 40 percent chance of tropical development over the next five days. We’ll keep an eye on it.
National Weather Service prediction map giving storms north of Panama a 40 percent chance of tropical development over the next five days.
June 13, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Most of us have seen a litttle rain, with the emphasis on a little. As of 6:30 a.m. the big winner has been Punta Blanca with a quarter of an inch, but for most of us it has just been a few hundredths.
As you can see in this morning’s satellite, there is a big bank of clouds to our north and west. That will keep us in the clouds most of the day and with a decent chance of rain, especially on the east side of the island and definitely for Guanaja. Winds should pick up this evening, from the east around 25 mph.
Tuesday and Wednesday still look like the dry days of the week.
Tuesday will be especially windy put of the east at 20-25 mph, but Wednesday will be calmer at 12-17 mph.
Thursday the winds calms and the rain chances increase into the weekend.
The GFS is trying to spin up a tropical storm to pass just to our north on Friday, while the European model puts it into the weekend. The National Weather Service gives it a 30 percent chance of development over the next five days. I’ll be very interested in seeing their opinion tomorrow.
June 12, 2022: Just a quick update today. Though we have been mostly clear, widely scattered showers are predicted to begin this evening and continue through tomorrow. Probably not a constant rain, but most of us should get some. Tuesday and Wednesday rain chances will be low before rising again Thursday into next weekend. Have a great Sunday!
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