Tropical update for Sept. 22, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! I’m not doing a video today because we don’t know a lot more today than we did yesterday. Invest 98L is still sitting on the coast of Venezuela and has not formed into a tropical cyclone. When it does, we will know more about what general track it will take, but until then it is just speculation.

The “spaghetti” map shows a wide array of possibilities for the track of this storm. The National Hurricane Center suggests that in two days this storm will have escaped from the outflow of Hurricane Fiona and should begin to form a cyclone. That means we’ll know more on Saturday, and if the storm comes our way, Monday is the day to look out for. We’ll keep an eye on it.

Sept. 21, 2022 Tropical Update: Good morning. We have a video explaining how forecast trends seem to indicate the Invest 98L (which should become Hermine) will move westward toward us before likely turning north toward Yucatan or Cuba around Monday. One correction: I say in the video that Eta and Iota were last year, but they were actually two years ago (time flies). Don’t forget to let folks know about our website roatanweather.org. Any who would like to chip in a buck or two to our weather service subscriptions can do so at patreon.com/roatanweather. Thanks!

Sept. 21, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! I want to start of by saying I may have personally caused the rain last night by saying yesterday that there was nothing in the forecast to fill our cisterns. Most of us got a good rain last night. I got a quarter of an inch on Jonesville Point and West Bay got almost an inch. West End got two thirds of an inch, Sandy Bay an inch and a quarter, Coral View a third of an inch, Politilly only .08, and Punta Blanca .36.

We will continue with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and hot conditions with little to no wind and calm seas into the weekend. There will continue to be a small chance of a shower, especially at night, as all eyes are on whatever may be coming at the beginning of next week. We’ll do a video tropical update for that. Have a great Wednesday!

Sept. 20, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! We have some pretty calm weather in our forecast. Right now the seas are hardly 1 foot (.3 meters) and they should be that way for the rest of the week. Get ready for some hot weather with mostly clear skies and almost no wind. There will be a low chance of a shower, especially at night, but probably nothing to fill our water tanks. Have a great Tuesday!

Tropical Update for Sept. 20, 2022. I decided there was enough info I needed to do a video. The core point is that the model agree this storm will become a tropical storm/hurricane at some point, the question is when and where as to how much it affects us. BTW, the next tropical storm name is Gaston.

The National Weather Service has now made the area we talked about this morning an area for investigation. Twenty percent chance of tropical development in the next five days.

Sept. 19, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! We finally got one of those nighttime showers to give us a little rain, with the emphasis on “a little.” It seems that everyone got wet, but no one got much more than a tenth of an inch of rain, enough to keep the dust down for one morning, perhaps, but not enough to fill our cisterns.

Today we will have east winds 7-12 mph and 2 foot (.6 meter) seas under mostly sunny skies. Tonight we will have another chance of a passing shower. After tonight, things get flat calm and pretty dry for the rest of the week. You can never rule out a popup shower, but it looks unlikely.

I do want to make mention of a system we are seeing on the satellite. You will notice that Hurricane Fiona is ravaging Puerto Rico and the DR this morning, but behind it, northeast of the South American coast is a cluster of showers and storm. Many of the computer models are making this into something that might move our way in about 10 days or so. Of course, computer models this far out are highly unreliable, but we will keep an eye on it. Have a great week!

Sept. 18, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Yesterday I said we have a stop sign over Roatan when it comes to rain and last night was another example. On the satellite you can see a storm pop up just to our east and just as it looks like it’s going to pass over the island it disappears.

Today is the beginning of our transition to calmer winds. East winds will be 7-12 mph today and 12-17 mph tonight with 2 foot (.6 meter) seas. Skies will be mostly sunny with only a small chance of a popup shower. Tonight there is another chance a storm pops up and runs the stop sign and gives us a much needed shower.

Tomorrow winds will be 7-12 mph but the nighttime winds will be even calmer, a calm that lasts until at least Thursday night. When it comes to rain, there are no major changes in the forecast, just a small chance of washing the dust off your car each day. Have a great Sunday!

Sept. 17, 2022, Good morning, Roatan! We still have clouds to our east, but there seems to be a stop sign keeping the rain from spreading over our island. I’d be willing to bet Guanaja got some this morning. We’ll keep it partly cloudy through the morning with a small chance of a shower. Winds will be 15-20 mph from the east today and seas will be 2-3 feet (.6-1 meter). Overnight tonight and tomorrow morning and overnight Sunday into Monday morning will be our best chances for rain. After that, next week looks pretty dry. Winds will start to calm tomorrow and will be quite calm Sunday into next week. Have a great weekend!

Sept. 16, 2022: Good morning, Roatan. Around 6 p.m. yesterday, those of you on the west side of the island were fortunate to get an evening shower. Those of us midisland and east side were left high and dry. Mud Hole was the big winner with half an inch. Sandy Bay got a little over a quarter of an inch. West Bay only got .17 and West End .08.

Despite the fact that there are clouds and rain to our east this morning, those rains should diminish as the day goes on and we will stay sunny. Winds will stay brisk at 17-22 mph during the day and 20-25 mph at night with seas 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters).

Saturday winds will calm a bit to 15 mph during the day and 20 mph at night with seas 2-3 feet (.6-1 meter). Saturday night is when our higher chance of rain starts and we will have a 50-60 percent chance of catching a shower through Monday night.

Starting Monday we will have a very calm week and starting Tuesday we will return to dry weather, with very small chances of rain each day. Next week looks hot, with lots of sun, few clouds and little wind. Have a great Friday!