Sept. 27, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Hurricane Ian is exiting the Caribbean this morning. A couple of outer bands brought us some squalls yesterday morning, but not everybody saw rain. West Bay, for instance, recorded none.

Today we have mostly sunny skies and a mild westerly breeze. As the day goes on, that breeze may kick up in the 10-15 mph range bringing 2-3 foot seas (.6-1 meter) to the north side. This week, with unusual westerly and then northerly breezes, the higher wave action will be on the north side all week. Rain chance today is about 30 percent, but that goes up to about 50 percent tomorrow and close to 100 percent Thursday and Friday as the cool front powered by the hurricane arrives, bringing us a stiff northerly breeze and cooler temperatures. We should clear out and have gorgeous weather this weekend into the first of next week with mild winds and seas. Have a great Tuesday!

Sept. 26, 2022: Want to see the birth of a hurricane? It happened last night just northeast of us. This morning we awoke to Hurricane Ian. It life expectancy is less than a week, but it will probably do a lot of damage in that week. Fortunately for us we are very much out of the way and only going to get side effects.

In this satellite image from 6:30 a.m., you can see we are getting some of the very outer bands from Ian. Radar indicates there are a few showers in these bands, but nothing heavy. We will keep a chance of rain in the forecast this morning. This afternoon and overnight looks mostly clear, with a chance of a morning shower tomorrow. We were forecast to get 10-15 mph westerlies today. That hasn’t happened and I don’t expect it will. Winds will remain relatively calm with seas at 1 foot.

The real effect for us comes Thursday into Friday. This map shows temperature anomalies (how different the temperature is from what it should be this time of year) for Thursday night/Friday morning. You can see cool air invading the western Gulf of Mexico and making it down here, giving us temperature 3-4 degrees below normal. That is pretty significant for Roatan, because our temperature doesn’t change much. This will feel quite cool.

We should also get waves of showers. In this map forecasting early Thursday morning, you can see how Ian look like he has a tail, the trails rain across Cuba and down toward us. That is the result of northerly winds pulled down on the west side of the storm. So we still have a fairly windy, rainy and cool forecast Thursday into Friday. There is also a concern about high surf these days on the north side. Have a great week!

Tropical update for Sept. 25, 2022: Tropical Storm Ian continues to track a little further west than they expected, meaning our chances of getting some effects is a bit greater. Guanaja now has a 5 percent chance of picking up tropical storm force (39 mph) winds Monday morning. Our main effect should be northerly winds that come behind the hurricane, especially Thursday and Friday, if this goes according to the current forecast. This video is a bit long (8 minutes). Sorry, I get a little talkative when it comes to hurricanes.

Tropical update for Sept. 24, 2022: You know that feeling you get when you are standing at the side of the road where the road curves, and car is coming right at you but you trust that it will turn away from you in order to stay on the road? That’s where we’re sitting right now with Tropical Storm Ian. Overnight the storm got better structure and it also moved west/SOUTHwest. But all the models say it will begin moving northwest, probably today and move south of Jamaica and toward Grand Cayman before either hitting western Cuba, or perhaps just missing off of Cuba’s western tip and entering the Gulf of Mexico. Exactly how for west it comes will affect our weather next week. It is possible we may see the very westernmost bands of the storm as it passes through the Caribbean on Monday. We probably won’t get much rain, because the western and southern sides of the storm are the driest, but we may get some clouds and, more importantly, some westerly winds and waves. Right now the forecast is for 10-15 mph and 2 foot seas, but keep an eye on it, and the seas will be worse the farther north you go. Through the middle of the week we should be relatively dry, but if the storm gets as strong as they think it will, it should pull northerly winds from North America down this far south. That means next Friday into next weekend could be rainy and cool, much like we get in a winter cold front, though probably not quite as cold. Right now next weekend looks pretty rainy. We’ll keep an eye on it. Exactly when it turns north will tell us a lot.

Sept. 24, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! This morning, about 2 a.m. we got three quarters of an inch on Jonesville Point and throughout yesterday afternoon we saw several heavy showers here on the east side, though most rain gauges only picked up a few hundredths or tenths of an inch.

Our calm winds and seas continue through the weekend and we will continue to have decent chances of showers moving in and out. We’ll talk about Tropical Storm Ian and the impacts it will have on our weather in the upcoming week in the tropical update. Have a great weekend!

Sept. 23, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! The west side of the island got quite wet last night, but pretty much all of us got some beneficial rain. West Bay reported 2.24 inches in a downpour that happened about 7 p.m. yesterday. West End got about an inch. Sandy Bay picked up about a quarter of an inch overnight, Coral View almost an inch, Politilly .65 and here on Jonesville Point .72. Utila also picked up an inch.

This morning we have partly cloudy skies and there are showers out to sea around the island. The sea itself is as flat calm as I’ve ever seen it on the south side. Today and tomorrow should remain quite calm, but rain chances are good, especially in the overnight hours. We have a clearer idea of what the tropical storm/hurricane will do and while it won’t directly affect us, we will definitely have some indirect effects. Monday we will have a westerly breeze about 15 mph. Our rain chances may actually be lower as the hurricane makes its closest pass, moving toward the Caymans and Cuba early in the week, but we will keep westerly winds through the week and those winds might turn to the north next Thursday and Friday, bringing us rains and temperatures a few degrees cooler than usual, almost like a mini-cold front. Have a great Friday!

Tropical update for Sept. 23, 2022: Overnight we definitely got clarity as to where our storm is going and it is away from us. Tropical Depression Nine (probably soon to become Hermine) formed a little to the north of where we expected and it is expected to track west until tomorrow evening when a sharp turn to the north, toward Cuba and the Caymans is expected. The only change in our weather will be a switch in light breezes to westerly and MAYBE 2 foot (.6 meter) seas on the north side.

This is the US GFS model and you will notice that as it comes closest to us Monday we only get a moderate wind from the west on the very outskirts of the storm.

Sept. 22, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! We have a few clouds and showers around this morning with peeks of sunshine. Utila picked up about half an inch midday yesterday and .05 this morning. The location near Mud Hole picked up a whopping 2.46 inches yesterday. Most of the rest of us got little or no rain the last 24 hours ending 7 a.m.

Our calm winds and seas continue. It was a great day to be on the water yesterday and will be again today, except for the fact that there will probably be a few more clouds and showers around. Today is a day when it wouldn’t hurt to take an umbrella if you go out because there is a decent chance you will run into a downpour somewhere on the island. Winds will stay calm into the weekend, but we will continue to keep about a 40 percent chance of showers around. All eyes on the seas for what happens Monday with Invest 98L. Have a great Thursday.

Tropical update for Sept. 22, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! I’m not doing a video today because we don’t know a lot more today than we did yesterday. Invest 98L is still sitting on the coast of Venezuela and has not formed into a tropical cyclone. When it does, we will know more about what general track it will take, but until then it is just speculation.

The “spaghetti” map shows a wide array of possibilities for the track of this storm. The National Hurricane Center suggests that in two days this storm will have escaped from the outflow of Hurricane Fiona and should begin to form a cyclone. That means we’ll know more on Saturday, and if the storm comes our way, Monday is the day to look out for. We’ll keep an eye on it.

Sept. 21, 2022 Tropical Update: Good morning. We have a video explaining how forecast trends seem to indicate the Invest 98L (which should become Hermine) will move westward toward us before likely turning north toward Yucatan or Cuba around Monday. One correction: I say in the video that Eta and Iota were last year, but they were actually two years ago (time flies). Don’t forget to let folks know about our website roatanweather.org. Any who would like to chip in a buck or two to our weather service subscriptions can do so at patreon.com/roatanweather. Thanks!