June 22, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. For days now our tropical wave has been on the Mosquito Coast teasing us. There are no good weather stations over there, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they hadn’t gotten 5 or 6 inches of rain. This morning we got .02 of an inch on Jonesville Point and the same in Politilly. All of our other weather stations have been dry.

Today and tomorrow we will keep about a 1 in 4 chance of a shower as the tropical wave finally lifts and moves north of us.

But the big news is the potential for rain Monday and Tuesday that Tropical Storm Bret will bring us. Right now the storm is near Barbados with winds at 70 mph, only 4 mph from hurricane status, but as it enter the Caribbean it is expected to weaken considerably.

it will no longer be Tropical Storm Bret, just another tropical wave of moisture. You will notice on the intensity chart I circled the period for 120 hours from now, which is Tuesday. By then the winds of this “storm” will be 15-25 knots (17-28 mph) at its center. Outside of the center, winds will be much lower, meaning that Bret could actually LOWER our wind speeds, because it will interfere with the trade winds we’ve been getting.

Most of the storm tracks bring its rain right over us.

That means that our forecast for Monday and Tuesday is currently for rain and winds only around 10 mph. This is our big hope for rain over the next few days, so lets hope it happens. Low tide is 6 p.m., but it isn’t extremely low because the moon is in crescent phase. Have a great Thursday!

June 21, 2023: Good morning and Happy Longest Day of the Year! Sunrise is 5:15 a.m. and sunset is 6:21 p.m. giving us 13 hours and 6 minutes of sunlight. On our shortest day of the year, Dec. 21, we will have 11 hours 9 minutes of sun. Being closer to the equator, the difference between longest day and shortest day is shorter than in North America, where today in many places you will have 14 or 15 hours of sunlight today.

But the big news of the day is there is some rain out there. Here on Jonesville Point at 6:30 a.m. we have had .03 of an inch, Punta Blanca has had a tenth of an inch and Politilly .08. I imagine Guanaja has had even more.But the big news of the day is there is some rain out there. Here on Jonesville Point at 6:30 a.m. we have had .03 of an inch, Punta Blanca has had a tenth of an inch and Politilly .08. I imagine Guanaja has had even more.

You can see the rain on radar and satellite moving toward the northwest. It’s not very heavy, but it is something and there should be more of it. We have decent chances of rain today and tomorrow as this small tropical waves moves over us.

You will also notice that Tropical Storm Bret, which has winds of 60 mph right now, is headed toward us. That would be scary except for the fact that upper level winds will weaken it into a tropical depression by Sunday morning when it is south of Jamaica. By Monday or Tuesday we hope that moisture gets here and gives us good rain chances, without all the wind. Generally speaking we are entering a period where there will be occasional squalls and partly cloudy skies. That should cool things down a bit. Winds will stay gusty at 15-25 mph and seas at 2-3 feet. Thursday night looks especially windy with winds up to 30 mph and seas up to 6 feet (2 meters). Have a great Wednesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. This morning we wake up to some bad news. Overnight our tropical wave weakened considerably as you can see in the satelite video from 6 p.m. last night to 6 a.m. today. That lowers our chances of rain this week considerably. Rain chances today and tomorrow are around 10 percent. Chances go up Wednesday through Friday to the 20-30 percent range. Our east winds will probably last through the week as well. So winds will generally be 15-25 mph from the east and seas will continue along with 3-4 foot seas, at least through Wednesday and possibly longer. On the bright side there will be more clouds this week than we’ve had in the past, and that should help with the heat. Low tide is 3:44 p.m. Have a great week!

Good morning Bay Islands! Our tropical wave is on our doorstep, the question is will it be able to come in. You can see the mass of moisture centered off the Mosquito Coast that we’ve been waiting for for weeks. It is already bringing good rainfall to the Mosquito Coast and there are even a couple of showers near us on radar at 6 a.m., one east of Guanaja, one north of eastern Roatan. But for the most part, the computers say that the same mainland mountains that weaken most hurricanes before they reach us will also dry out these rain storms before they reach us.

Here’s the GFS rainfall forecast through noon Friday.

And here’s the Euro rainfall forecast through noon Friday.

You will see they leave us in a big blue hole of not much rain. Guanaja is close to a boundary that gets more rain, and I think over the next week many if not all of us will see at least a little rain. I also think that rain will be generally heavier the further west you go, so Guanaja has a much better chance than Utila. Those chances start tonight into tomorrow morning and get a little better into the middle of the week, but each day they are no more than 1 in 3.
Tonight and tomorrow night winds stay fairly strong in the 20-27 mph range. Tuesday the calm a bit to 15-22 mph and Wednesday and Thursday look a lot calmer. Low tide is 3:08 p.m. Have a great Sunday!

Good morning Bay Islands. We wake up to east winds 20 mph and seas 2 feet on the north side and 4 feet on the south side. These winds will continue through the weekend and start to calm a little on Monday.
This weekend will be dry, but we continue to hope for some rain next week.

The forecast map shown here is the GFS forecast for midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Our tropical low pressure system is shown to our east and is forecast to move north away from us. But the GFS gives us rain chances Monday through Thursday. Our best hope is that we get some scattered showers next week. These will not be rainy days, but each day there will be a 1 in 3 chance of catching rain shower. Low tide is 2:30 p.m. Have a great weekend!

June 16, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands! We wake up to east winds at 20 mph but they got up to 39 mph last night. Seas are at 3-4 feet. Windy conditions will continue through Monday before we get some calm during the middle of next week. We are still in the midst of dry conditions and hoping for some relief with that tropical wave next week. Best rain chances right now look to be Monday and Tuesday and perhaps early Wednesday.
The GPS computer model has for weeks been trying to make a tropical storm out of this wave, but this morning it seems to have given up. Upper level winds are not good for tropical storms and tropical development is unlikely, though not impossible. Let’s still hope we get the rain. Low tide is 2:30 p.m. Have a great Friday!

The National Hurricane Center has some storms coming off the west coast of Africa with a 20 percent chance of tropical development over 7 days. Some computers are developing this, but it is more of a threat to the Eastern Caribbean and no threat to us.

The second map is the GFS forecast for midnight Monday night. It has the tropical wave that we’ve been watching for days perhaps getting close to a low-level tropical storm, but it also forecasts it to turn sharply north and away from us.

The third map is the Euro prediction for noon Tuesday. It has a much weaker storm, but it does bring the storm west instead of north. This would be good for us because it gives us a better chance of rain Tuesday through Thursday. We’ll keep an eye on it.

June 15, 2023: Good morning Roatan! We have a shower to the east of Guanaja, but unfortunately it is just sitting there and it will eventually fade away. We have 20 mph east winds this morning and 4 foot seas on the south side and 2 foot seas on the north side. Our windy conditions will continue, getting up to 30 mph in the evenings, through Sunday.
Monday things will get a little calmer as the tropical moisture gets closer to us. Unfortunately most of the models show the storms getting close, but then taking a sharp turn to the north, away from us. We still will have a chance of showers Monday through early Wednesday. Low tide is 1:17 p.m. Have a great Thursday!

June 14, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. The wind has brought us a little relief from the heat, though the high yesterday was 91F (33C) and the heat index was 105F (41C), winds at 20-30 mph make that heat more bearable. The waves have also cooled sea temps a bit. A buoy on the north side is now under 29C (84F) after being well over 30C for awhile. We will continue with the strong east wind and waves 4-5 feet (1.3-1.6 meters) through the weekend. The middle of next week looks calmer, though not completely calm.As for rain, the expected tropical wave continues to disappoint. Our best shot of rain will be Monday, but it is still not a sure thing. Until then we will stay high and dry. Have a great Wednesday!

June 13, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands! Winds are still around 20 mph and seas at 4 feet (1.3 meters) on the south side, around 3 feet on the north side. The wind is here, at least until the weekend.

I’m posting accumulated precipitation maps from both the Euro …

… and the Canadian computer models for the next week. You will notice a river in southern Central America and northern South America. We are on the edge of that river. Just like when you are standing on the edge of a river, sometimes a wave can come and get your feet wet. That’s what we are hoping will happen Sunday and Monday, but right now the computers are only giving us a quarter to half an inch of rain. Let’s hope our feet get wetter than that. Until then we’ll be windy, wavy and mostly dry with only a slight chance of an overnight shower. Low tide is 11:43 a.m. Have a great Tuesday.