Good morning Bay Islands. We wake up to mostly cloudy skies and calm winds and seas. Those calm winds and seas should last through Thursday, with perhaps a little breeze and a 1 to 2 foot wave here or there.
We will also have fairly low chances of showers overnight and in the mornings until we get to Friday.

On Friday evening into Saturday morning a tropical wave will pass over. The computer models have decreased the amount of rain we should see from this system, but that can change as the system gets closer. It should give us 15-20 mph winds Friday and Saturday and seas at 3 feet. After it passes over us, to should go across Central America into the Pacific and perhaps become a tropical storm. If that happens, it will be the third time this year a tropical wave passed over us and became a tropical storm or hurricane. You may remember the first one was Hurricane Dora, that fed the Maui fire as it passed south of Hawaii. The second is the current Hurricane Idalia about to hit Florida. It definitely won’t be a dangerous storm when it gets here, but hopefully this new tropical wave brings us more rain. Low tide is 1:20 p.m. Have a great Tuesday.

August 28, 2023. Good morning Bay Islands. Tropical Storm Idalia will become Hurricane Idalia any minute now, but it is moving away from us. Last night most of us got around a quarter of an inch of rain around midnight and we have winds this morning from the southwest around 15 mph and seas around 3 feet.
Skies will be mostly cloudy today but as the day goes on those clouds will get thinner and we’ll see more sun. Actually the chance of rain is pretty low today, around 20 percent.
Tonight into tomorrow and through Thursday we will have light and variable winds and fairly calm seas around 1 foot. Friday and Saturday look windier and wavier.
We will have moderate overnight and early morning rain chances, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
We are also watching a wave of moisture set to hit us this coming weekend. We’ll keep an eye on it. Low tide is 12:30 pm. Have a great week!

August 26, 2023. Good morning Bay Islands. Our tropical system has moved north of the islands and is headed north away from us. We will have partly cloudy skies and continued calm winds, though tomorrow morning will be an exception, with east winds 15-20 mph and seas around 3 feet (1 meter).
We will continue to have rain chances overnight tonight into tomorrow morning and Sunday night into Monday morning. As we look into next week things look a little drier, but with continued low winds 5-10 mph until Friday.
Have a great weekend!

August 25, 2023. Good morning Bay Islands. We got a soaking rain last night with many totals 1 to 2 inches and some reports more than that.
This morning the National Hurricane Center places the storm just off the northern coast of eastern Honduras.

It is honestly hard to see anything specific on the satellite and we have a lot of partly sunny skies. This thing is going to spend the weekend getting organized. We’ll have good chances of rain especially Sunday and especially in the evenings but also periods of sun. Winds and seas will continue mild except in squalls. Have a great Friday.

Aug. 24, 2023. Good morning Bay Islands. This morning the storm on the Pacific side of Nicaragua is still expected to move north. We will continue to deal with clouds and scattered showers through Saturday morning. Oddly the same computers that are saying this storm will move north are not predicting a huge amount of rain for us, but we will be mostly cloudy with occasional showers and if we get a heavy rain we can get an inch quick like many of us did yesterday morning. Winds and seas will remain fairly calm except I’m squalls. We may get some 15-20 mph winds Saturday morning if the storm forms as expected. Have a great Thursday.

Aug. 23, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. At 7:30 a.m. there are quite a few showers and thundershowers out there. These showers on radar are moving to the southwest. We will have a good chance of seeing a shower through the day today. Those good rain chances last through tomorrow. Winds should be calm at 5-10 mph and seas at 1-2 feet, except in squalls. We are still looking at the possibility of increased rain chances Thursday night into Friday morning as a small disturbance comes north from the Pacific across the country. Most of the models see something coming this way, though the Euro is still the strongest on it. But even the Euro says the winds shouldn’t be much more than 20 mph Friday morning.

August 22, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. I decided to do a video because the forecast is complicated.

To make a long story short, we should have scattered showers, especially tonight into tomorrow. We will continue to have mild and variable winds and seas 1-2 feet (.3-.6 meters). The European model is trying to give us a tropical depression Thursday night into Friday morning, but even if it is true, it would only mean westerly winds around 20 mph Friday morning and heavy rain Thursday night. The GFS and Canadian model disagree and just give us typical scattered showers and light winds.

Good morning Bay Islands. Last night between 10 and 11 p.m. we had some thunderstorms pass over the islands that gave most of us about a tenth of an inch of rain, but West Bay got about a third of an inch. We recorded winds gusting to 40 mph during the squall on Jonesville Point. After the storm ended our winds calmed back to around 5-10 mph where we are this morning, with seas 1-2 feet. Winds and seas will continue fairly calm this week, except in storm squalls.

Our area of the Caribbean is fairly clear this morning, so we should have dry conditions this morning. But we will continue have very good chances of showers and thundershowers, especially late in the evening, overnight and early mornings through the week.

There are three tropical storms out there, the closest being Tropical Storm Franklin,

but it will take a sharp turn to the north tomorrow and away from us. We are not in danger of any tropical storms currently. Have a great week!

Good morning Bay Islands. Overnight Punta Blanca and Politilly got a little rain around 2:30 a.m., enough to get the ground wet. Midmorning yesterday much of the west side of the island got about a tenth of an inch.

This morning on radar we have a few showers west of Utila, but those are moving south and away from the islands. We are experiencing very calm winds and seas and those will continue today under mostly sunny skies. The rain chance is very low today and tonight. The chance of scattered showers is a little better Monday evening into Tuesday morning and even better Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.
Today and much of this week, winds and seas will be quite calm, mostly around 1 foot (.3 meters). It will be a great week to be on the sea, aside from an occasional shower that should come and go quickly.

As you can see on the National Hurricane Center forecast map, there’s quite a bit of activity in the Atlantic and one storm, called 90L, that has entered the eastern Caribbean. This is the time when some people get scary messages saying a hurricane is coming. Don’t believe it.

As you can see in this map, almost all of the models have this storm turning north over Haiti and Dominican Republic and heading out to sea. None of them have the storm hitting us. Right now none of these storms are any threat to the islands. Have a great Sunday and enjoy the calm conditions.

Good morning Bay Islands. We wake up to clear skies, east winds 10-15 mph and seas around 2 feet. Today winds and seas will stay around 10-15 mph and 2 feet, but we are looking at some super calm conditions for the weekend with winds 5-10 mph and seas 1-2 feet (.3-.6 meters), even calmer toward Utila. Monday we will be back to 10-15 mph winds, but starting Tuesday and into next week we should get super calm again. A great time to take your boat out on the sea.
As for rain, we look mostly dry into Sunday. Sunday night into Monday our rain chances go up and we should have 30-40 percent rain chances most days next week, especially at night and early morning.

The tropics definitely are more active as we get toward the end of August. We have a category 4 Hurricane Hilary about to hit Baja and create flooding in the deserts of southern California.

But of more concern to us is the tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center showing in the western Atlantic. I have given you an arrow to show which of the several potential storms it is. The NHC is giving this storm a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next 7 days, but most of the computer models are turning it into something. But they also seem to agree that upper level winds from the south will push this storm north around midweek.

This is where the storm is now.

Here it is on Monday night.

Here is where it is forecast to turn to the north, over Haiti and Dominican Republic.

And finally moving into the Atlantic on Friday. Our concern is what if the models are wrong about the storm turning north? If it doesn’t turn north, it would be something for us to worry about next weekend. Right now that is a very low chance, but it something to watch this week. We’ll keep an eye on it. High and low tides are not very strong right now. Have a great Friday!