July 30, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. Our storm from the past two days is now south of Acapulco, Mexico and has an 80 percent chance of turning into a Pacific storm, but it is no longer of concern to us.

There is a small shower over Barbarat. Very few of us should see any rain from this isolated shower, but some of us on the east end may catch a little rain.

Today looks like a nice day with partly cloudy skies. Winds will continue to be from the 15-20 mph and seas 2-3 feet (.6-1 meter). Tomorrow looks a little calmer, but also a day with scattered showers around throughout the day. There will be about a 40 percent chance of rain on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday we will have partly cloudy skies with a 30 percent chance of rain each day, especially overnight and in the morning.
Rain chances should be low at the end of the week into the weekend. Have a great Sunday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Here are the rainfall numbers since midnight. Except for Utila, which shows the half inch they received yesterday afternoon.

This morning most of the storm has moved into the Pacific, though there is still a piece of the storm over us.

Most of the rain is to our north, but we still have scattered showers to our east, so we will keep a chance of rain through the morning hours.

Now that it is moving away from us, this storm has an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression in the Pacific.

Winds this morning are around 20 mph and seas 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters). Winds should remain around 15-20 mph and seas around 3 feet (1 meter) this weekend and early next week.

After these clouds clear out, the chance of rain looks pretty low this afternoon through tomorrow. Monday through Wednesday the chance of rain looks higher, with scattered storms, mostly at night and in the morning but also possible anytime of day. These won’t be long, all-day rains, but passing downpours like we are used to in July and August on the islands. Low tide is around noon. Have a great weekend!

Good morning Bay Islands. The National Hurricane Center has given us a yellow x for a potential tropical system off the coast of Nicaragua. This is the system we will be dealing with today. It is possible it will form into a tropical storm after it crosses into the Pacific. That won’t be our problem, but dealing with showers and thunderstorms today will.

The center of the storm will be south of us, but there are significant clouds and rain to our east. In the satellite you can see a few stronger storms within the main system. Those have the darker gray clouds that I’ve circled. We will be cloudy all day. There will be periods without rain, but also some heavy rain and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and evening.

Some rain has already come in advance of our storm. Many locations, especially mid-island, picked up about a tenth of an inch. All of us should see more than this today.

Rain may last into early tomorrow morning, but tomorrow is beginning to look a little better, with a lower chance of rain during the middle of the day and afternoon, but windy, with east winds 17-25 mph and seas 3-4 feet.
Starting Sunday we will have about a 30 percent chance of seeing a scattered shower or thunderstorm each day, with east winds around 12-17 mph and seas around 3 feet. Low tide is 11:20 p.m. Have a great Friday and stay safe!

July 27, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. Some clouds and perhaps some showers are to our north. There is a small chance of a shower through midmorning, but most of us will stay dry the rest of today.

The rain the fell overnight mostly happened just after midnight. We wake up to light and variable winds and seas 1-2 feet. Those fairly calm winds and seas will last through tomorrow morning.

As you can see in the satellite image, our tropical wave is now in the central Caribbean, just south of Jamaica. Tomorrow morning we will have a small chance of a morning shower, but this wave should move in Friday afternoon. The greatest chance of showers will occur from about midday Friday to midday Saturday, though showers might linger Saturday afternoon. Between midday Friday and midday Saturday, some of these storms will likely have thunder and gusty winds, so be careful. Most of the models give us around an inch through this period. Starting Saturday night we will get back to the scattered showers, primarily in the overnight and early morning, like we have had the past week. Low tide is 10:30 a.m.

There is another tropical wave in the Atlantic, but right now it is forecast to turn to the north before entering the Caribbean. Have a great Thursday!

July 26, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. As you can see in the radar from 4:30 to 6:30 a.m., some rain passed over Utila this morning and just barely touched West Bay.

Utila got a quarter of an inch and West Bay .01.

There are a few clouds to our east at 6:30 a.m. that may contain a little rain, so there will be a small chance of a shower for the next couple of hours.

We wake up to calm winds and seas 1-2 feet. Those calm conditions will continue through Friday.

This is the GFS forecast map for Friday afternoon. It shows that the tropical wave should arrive Friday afternoon and last through Saturday.

There is good agreement between forecast models that most of us should see 1-2 inches of rain during this period. Saturday our winds from the east also pick up to around 15 mph and seas to 3 feet. Low tide is 10:30 a.m. Have a great Wednesday!

July 25, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. A very narrow band of rain has brought rain between a tenth and a quarter of an inch and at 6:40 a.m. seems to be headed west. There’s a little more to our east so we’ll keep a chance of showers through midmorning.

Here are rain totals at 7:40 a.m.

As we wake up east winds are 10-15 mph and seas are 2-3 feet (.6-1 meter). Those winds will continue today, but tomorrow through Friday we will see quite calm conditions with winds 5-10 mph and seas 1-2 feet (.3-.6 meters). We will continue to have partly cloudy days and small chances of overnight and early morning showers through the week. The tropical disturbance about to enter the Caribbean should give us better rain chances this weekend.

The National Hurricane Center has our tropical disturbance over the Windward Islands down to a 10 percent chance of tropical formation. I expect they will stop putting out forecasts for it today. But that doesn’t mean the rain will go away. We are still looking for an increased chance of rain, perhaps starting Friday night through the weekend.

Both the GFS and Euro models are giving us a good chance at this rain. This is the GFS through Saturday night, where you can see the rain forecast to come our way. The Canadian model is sending the moisture further south into Nicaragua. If that happens we will stay mostly dry. But I’d say right now there’s better than a 50/50 chance this weekend we will have occasional showers and a few thunderstorms. Low tide is 8:30 a.m. Have a great Tuesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. The satellite shows almost the entire Caribbean has clear skies. We will continue to be windy today, with east winds 20-25 mph and seas at 3-4 feet today and 20-30 mph and seas 4-5 feet tonight. (1.3-1.6 meters)
Tomorrow winds calm to 15-20 mph and seas 2-3 feet.
Wednesday through Friday look quite calm, with east winds 5-10 mph and seas 1-2 feet (.3-.6 meters).
This week we will have small chances of overnight and early morning showers, around 20 percent each night.

We continue to watch our tropical disturbance, which is now nearing Trinidad. While there is only a 20 percent chance of it becoming a tropical depression, the rain seems to be holding together and most of the computers are giving us better rain chances this weekend because of it. High and low tides continue to be very mild. Have a great week!

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Good morning Bay Islands. These rain totals are from overnight last night. Just before and after midnight, a shower hit the east side of the island. We wake up to east winds gusting up to 30 mph and seas 3-4 feet. These windy conditions, with east winds 20-25 mph during the day and 20-30 mph at night and seas 3-4 feet will last through Monday. Tuesday we calm down to around 20 mph and Wednesday looks even calmer with seas 1-2 feet.
Today and tomorrow should be clear and dry, though some Saharan dust will give us hazy skies.
Starting Tuesday morning, our chances of morning showers goes up to 20 or 30 percent. We’re still looking at decent chances for rain next weekend.

The orange X marks the current location of a low pressure system in the western Atlantic. As it approaches the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday it now has a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression (a tropical depression is a storm that rotates, but has less than 39 mph winds).
As it enters the Caribbean, the upper level winds are expected to tear it apart. Virtually all the computers agree on this, so we probably have nothing to worry about. The big question is will this throw some moisture our way, giving us a better chance for showers next weekend. Right now it’s possible.

The GFS forecast for next Saturday night is shown here with the moisture circled. The GFS is also forecasting a wave right now coming off the coast of Africa to develop into a storm, which is circled on the right and labeled as a second potential storm. Right now the GFS is the only model forecasting this, so we’ll keep an eye on it.

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Good morning Bay Islands. We have quite a bit of rain to our north and a little to our east. We’ll have a chance of a shower through midmorning, but these showers should decrease as the morning goes on. Starting this afternoon and lasting through the early part of next week should be mostly dry.
We start the morning with 20 mph east winds and seas at 4 feet. 20-30 mph east winds and seas 4-5 feet should continue through Monday.
We are still watching the tropics to see what becomes of the disturbance in the Atlantic.

As you can see in the satellite image, the area of showers in the middle of the Atlantic is still a very small storm in a very dry area of the ocean. It is such a small storm the computer models are having a hard time making much of it.

The National Hurricane Center continues to give it a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression. Most of the most reliable models predict this will develop a little in the next few days but then weaken significantly as it enters the Caribbean. The GFS still gives us an increased rain chance next weekend as the moisture comes our way, but some of the models even have the moisture going to our south to Costa Rica. There’s still a great deal of uncertainty here and we will continue to watch it. Low tide is 6 p.m. but we are in a period where low tides aren’t very low. Have a great weekend!

Good morning Bay Islands. Here are the rainfall totals since midnight. Most of this rain fell right after midnight. Also, the far east side got a very good rain yesterday morning.

This morning the National Hurricane Center upgraded the chance for tropical development of the wave we’ve been watching in the central Atlantic, up to 40 percent. It’s development has been slowed by some dry air around it, but conditions should get better for development as it gets closer to the eastern Caribbean.

You will notice in the track forecast that all the computers have it coming straight toward us.

This is the American model (GFS) forcast for the Caribbean through Sunday night July 30. You will notice that it doesn’t have the storm developing much in the Caribbean, but it gives us good rain chances for the weekend of July 29-30. This is a best-cast scenario for us because we still need more rain. But there also is reason for concern because the water temperatures are still at very high levels, which could cause the storm to intensify rapidly and this far out it is hard to say exactly what the wind conditions will be. Most of the models are telling us this storm shouldn’t be strong, but right now I’d keep an eye on it and understand that the weekend of July 29-30 is our best chance for being affected by whatever this storm becomes.