Good morning Bay Islands. These rain totals are from overnight last night. Just before and after midnight, a shower hit the east side of the island. We wake up to east winds gusting up to 30 mph and seas 3-4 feet. These windy conditions, with east winds 20-25 mph during the day and 20-30 mph at night and seas 3-4 feet will last through Monday. Tuesday we calm down to around 20 mph and Wednesday looks even calmer with seas 1-2 feet.
Today and tomorrow should be clear and dry, though some Saharan dust will give us hazy skies.
Starting Tuesday morning, our chances of morning showers goes up to 20 or 30 percent. We’re still looking at decent chances for rain next weekend.

The orange X marks the current location of a low pressure system in the western Atlantic. As it approaches the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday it now has a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression (a tropical depression is a storm that rotates, but has less than 39 mph winds).
As it enters the Caribbean, the upper level winds are expected to tear it apart. Virtually all the computers agree on this, so we probably have nothing to worry about. The big question is will this throw some moisture our way, giving us a better chance for showers next weekend. Right now it’s possible.

The GFS forecast for next Saturday night is shown here with the moisture circled. The GFS is also forecasting a wave right now coming off the coast of Africa to develop into a storm, which is circled on the right and labeled as a second potential storm. Right now the GFS is the only model forecasting this, so we’ll keep an eye on it.

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Good morning Bay Islands. We have quite a bit of rain to our north and a little to our east. We’ll have a chance of a shower through midmorning, but these showers should decrease as the morning goes on. Starting this afternoon and lasting through the early part of next week should be mostly dry.
We start the morning with 20 mph east winds and seas at 4 feet. 20-30 mph east winds and seas 4-5 feet should continue through Monday.
We are still watching the tropics to see what becomes of the disturbance in the Atlantic.

As you can see in the satellite image, the area of showers in the middle of the Atlantic is still a very small storm in a very dry area of the ocean. It is such a small storm the computer models are having a hard time making much of it.

The National Hurricane Center continues to give it a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression. Most of the most reliable models predict this will develop a little in the next few days but then weaken significantly as it enters the Caribbean. The GFS still gives us an increased rain chance next weekend as the moisture comes our way, but some of the models even have the moisture going to our south to Costa Rica. There’s still a great deal of uncertainty here and we will continue to watch it. Low tide is 6 p.m. but we are in a period where low tides aren’t very low. Have a great weekend!

Good morning Bay Islands. Here are the rainfall totals since midnight. Most of this rain fell right after midnight. Also, the far east side got a very good rain yesterday morning.

This morning the National Hurricane Center upgraded the chance for tropical development of the wave we’ve been watching in the central Atlantic, up to 40 percent. It’s development has been slowed by some dry air around it, but conditions should get better for development as it gets closer to the eastern Caribbean.

You will notice in the track forecast that all the computers have it coming straight toward us.

This is the American model (GFS) forcast for the Caribbean through Sunday night July 30. You will notice that it doesn’t have the storm developing much in the Caribbean, but it gives us good rain chances for the weekend of July 29-30. This is a best-cast scenario for us because we still need more rain. But there also is reason for concern because the water temperatures are still at very high levels, which could cause the storm to intensify rapidly and this far out it is hard to say exactly what the wind conditions will be. Most of the models are telling us this storm shouldn’t be strong, but right now I’d keep an eye on it and understand that the weekend of July 29-30 is our best chance for being affected by whatever this storm becomes.

Good morning Bay Islands. We’ve had some rain overnight, especially midisland and east. These totals are since midnight.

There’s a storm system centered around southern Belize and the Caribbean coast of Guatemala. We are catching the clouds and some of the showers on the east side of that system. Today we will have mostly cloudy skies with peeks of sunshine, especially in the afternoon, and a chance of a shower throughout the day. East winds will be 15-20 mph and seas 2-3 feet. Conditions will be similar tomorrow.
Saturday our rain chances go down and our east winds pick up to 20-25 mph and perhaps 30 mph overnight and seas 4-5 feet. Low tide is 4:20 p.m. but not as low as in recent days. Have a great Thursday!

Despite rain being all around us, somehow at 6:20 a.m. most of our weather stations stayed dry.

Utila is getting a shower and about a tenth of an inch. We will be dealing with scattered showers for the next three days. Most of our rain will be overnight and in the morning hours, but there will also be a chance of an afternoon shower.
East winds will be 10-15 mph today with 2 foot seas. Tomorrow they will be 15-20 mph and 3 foot seas. Of course, when squalls come, winds can get much higher. Generally windier conditions return on Saturday. Low tide is 3:45 p.m.

The area of storms coming off the African coast that I wrote about a couple of days ago is now marked as an area to watch by the National Hurricane Center. It is a long way away and there is dry air and dust in the Atlantic, so there isn’t much chance of development anytime soon, but its general movement is toward the Caribbean so we should keep an eye on it. If it holds together it is about 10 days away from the eastern Caribbean.

Good morning Bay Islands. The rainfall totals on the west side happened between 12:30 a.m. and 2 a.m. while the rain in Punta Blanca on the east side came around 3:30 a.m. Punta Blanca and the far east side also got a shower yesterday around noon that gave them about an inch. At 6:30 a.m. we have a lot of high clouds on satellite but not much rain on radar.

We’re now in a period of partly cloudy skies and occasional squalls. Most of these rain showers will come overnight and early morning, but occasionally we’ll get one in the afternoon as well.
This week the winds will be moderate, from the east 12-20 mph and seas 2-3 feet. Of course, when a squall approaches your location, winds can get gusty. Low tide is 3:15 p.m. Have a great Tuesday!

For much of the night the rain was teasing us to the north, but we finally got some rain to come over the island around 4:30 a.m. giving West End half an inch.

Several other locations got rain, but unfortunately for us, we’re still dry on Jonesville Point. At 7 a.m. most of the rain is well to our north, but there is the possibility of a small shower through mid-morning.
Rain chances tonight are pretty small, but they get better Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and much better Wednesday night through Friday or maybe Saturday. Thursday and Friday we could even have some midday or afternoon showers.
Winds will be from the east northeast at 10-20 mph and seas at 2 feet for much of the week ahead. Low tide is 2:45 p.m. Have a great week.

Good morning Bay Islands. We have a lot of clouds overhead,

but not a lot of rain.

The highest rain total as of 7 a.m. is .06 of an inch in West Bay. We will continue to have a small rain chance through the morning, but clouds should begin to decrease. Winds this morning are around 20 mph and seas at 3 feet. We will continue to be windy today with winds 20-25 mph and seas 3-4 feet. Tomorrow and into the coming week, winds will calm a bit to 15-20 mph and seas at 2 feet. We will continue to have small overnight rain chances, but those chances get a bit better Wednesday night through Friday. Low tide is 2:20 p.m. Have a good Sunday!

July 15, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. Around 8 p.m. last night rain moved over Roatan giving many locations about a tenth of an inch. This morning we are mostly sunny with southeast winds around 20 mph and seas at 3 feet (1 meter). We will stay windy today and tomorrow at 20-25 mph and seas getting up to 4 feet. Starting Monday and for much of next week winds should be from the east 15-20 mph and seas 2-3 feet.
Some of the computers are wanting to give us a bit of a better chance of rain late this afternoon and early this evening. Over the next few days we will continue to have small overnight rain chances, but the chances will go up Wednesday night into Thursday, with a good chance of some beneficial rain. Have a good weekend!

We had showers scattered around the island, but most reporting stations got nothing. We heard thunder and had a bit of rain around 3 a.m., but the rain meter up the hill from me in Jonesville Point got nothing. Only Palmetto Bay recorded any rain, with .06 of an inch.

There’s a shower to the east of Guanaja right now, but it is moving to the south and should miss us. Otherwise, the satellite looks clear, so we should have a mostly sunny day.

Winds are pretty calm this morning at 7-12 mph from the northeast and seas are around 2 feet (.6 meters). They should stay that way today, getting windier tonight up to 20 mph. Tomorrow winds will be 15-20 mph and seas at 3 feet. Tomorrow night through Sunday looks windier with 20-25 mph winds and seas at 4 feet. The first of next week looks a little calmer again.

We will continue in this cycle of early morning rain chances and mostly dry days. The GFS model is wanting to give us a better chance of some downpours toward the middle of next week. Low tide is 1:15 p.m. Have a great Friday!