Good morning and welcome to October. No rainfall since midnight for most of us on Roatan. Looks like several locations on Utila got a decent rain around 3 a.m. There was also some rain before midnight on Utila.

On satellite this morning we see lots of clouds from the north that are very thin, looking like cotton that has been stretched out. These cirrus clouds do not contain rain. But there are small white dots that may contain rain. Those would be very small showers if anyone sees one this morning and they won’t last long.
We have a bit higher seas at 2 feet on the southside, with the northside still at 1 foot.

We will have a partly cloudy day today with east winds 10-15 mph, seas 1-2 feet and an increasing chance of rain toward evening. The chance of rain is pretty good overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Monday through next week looks quite calm. With east winds 5-10 mph and seas at 1 foot. The chance of rain is lower at about 20 percent each day and 30 percent each night. Low tide is 4:45 p.m. Have a great Sunday!

Good morning Bay Islands. These are rain totals since midnight, and much of the rain you see here came just after midnight. Palmetto Bay picked up over a half inch. None of the Utila stations reported rain.

A 6:48 a.m. most of the storminess is over toward Puerto Cortes moving away from us. We have mostly high clouds and maybe one or two that might contain a brief shower this morning.

We will continue to have partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies with scattered showers mostly at night. This weekend will be a little windier with east winds 10-15 mph and seas 1-2 feet.
Starting Monday winds will calm to 5-10 mph and seas will remain mostly 1 foot to flat calm, a perfect week for those crowded Morizanica beaches. We will have a minor low tide at 3:20 pm and a lower one at 3:45 a.m. Have a great weekend.

Good morning Bay Islands. We have some storms well to our north. They are drifting south very slowly. Over the next three hours (7-10 a.m.) we will probably see quite a few clouds from this, and possibly a shower here or there.

This afternoon should be mostly sunny with fairly calm winds and seas.
Tonight we will have another 30 percent chance of a shower or thundershower.
This weekend is slightly windier, with east winds 10-15 mph and seas 1-2 feet. We will continue to have small chances of showers, mostly at night.
I know a lot of folks are interested in the forecast for next week, Semana Morizanica. It will be much the same as we’ve had for the past week, with perhaps a little less rain. Winds and seas will be fairly calm, getting slightly windier toward next weekend. Thundershower chances will be small and mostly at night. Any daytime showers will be brief. There are still no tropical storms anywhere close to the Caribbean. Have a great Friday!

Good morning Bay Islands. This morning the storms have mostly moved well to our north. There is a small shower to the east of Guanaja at 7 a.m. The problem with these storms is that there isn’t a lot of wind in the upper atmosphere, so these storms are mostly staying in one place, not moving east to west as is normal.
We will continue to have 30 percent rain chances, mostly at night, but otherwise we will have partly cloudy skies and calm seas at 1 foot. We will have a mild low tide at 2 p.m. and a lower tide at 2 a.m. tomorrow. Have a great Thursday.

Good morning Bay Islands. We have scattered showers around at 7:30 a.m., including one in West Bay …

… that has given them over half an inch of rain as of 7:30. We will have scattered thundershowers today, with about a 50 percent chance. We will continue to have 2-3 foot seas, higher around squalls, and light winds. Seas will calm tomorrow and we will have 1 foot seas through the weekend. Rain chances each day will be around 30 percent. Low tide is 1 p.m. Have a great Wednesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. At 7:15 a.m. you can see there are two storms in the Caribbean, one just to our east and one south of Cuba. The one to our east has been weakening over the last two hours and the rain and thunder shifting to the north. One thing this storm has done is stir up our seas, which are at 2-3 feet despite winds being fairly calm. We will definitely get some clouds from this today, but we will have a 40 percent chance of rain. Rain chances increase to 50 percent tonight and through the day tomorrow.
Starting Thursday seas get back to 1-2 feet and our rain chances go back down to 30 percent. Low tide is 12:30 p.m. Have a great Tuesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. I did a video to talk about a small storm the GFS model is predicting for Wednesday, mainly to our north. It isn’t a huge deal, but it would basically be a very small tropical depression that passes about 50 miles to our north.
Today and tomorrow we will continue to have partly cloudy skies and a 30 percent chance of a passing shower, but starting Tuesday night through Thursday morning we would have better chances of rain, with most models giving us an inch and a half over that time period. If the GFS is right, and it gets windier to our north, we could get 3-4 foot seas, especially on the north side during this period. Have a great week!

Sept. 24, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. We have some rain and clouds moving south from our north, much like we had yesterday. Yesterday those clouds made it here and gave some of us around an inch of rain mid morning. These clouds are a little further east than those were, but it is possible we could get a mid- or late-morning shower out of this.
Otherwise we will be partly cloudy with winds 5-10 mph and seas at 1 foot.
Tomorrow winds will be 10-15 mph and seas around 2 feet. Tomorrow evening through Thursday we will have scattered showers and about a 40 percent chance each day of seeing a shower or thunderstorm. Starting Wednesday, winds calm again to 5-10 mph and seas 1 foot. Have a great Sunday.

Good morning Bay Islands. We have a few showers in the western portion of the Caribbean at 7 a.m. moving south. These will probably fall apart as the morning goes on, but there is a chance that western Roatan or Utila gets a midmorning shower out of one of these.

We will have light winds, 1 foot seas and very little chance of rain today and tomorrow.
Our chances of rain go up Monday and especially Tuesday and Wednesday, mostly for overnight or early morning thundershowers, but a shower in the middle of the day Tuesday or Wednesday is also possible.
Winds will be 15 mph and seas 2-3 feet Monday and Tuesday before calming again Wednesday through the rest of the week. Have a great weekend!

Good morning Bay Islands. We had a little bit of rain early this morning in the madrugada (that’s definitely one of my favorite Spanish words, meaning the early morning hours before dawn. We have nothing like it in English.). The rain was mostly midisland to the east side.

This morning we’re mostly clear. There is a small area of showers east of Guanaja, but that is headed southwest, toward Colon on the coast.

Today we will have 10-15 mph winds and 2 foot seas, but this weekend things will get much calmer.
We will continue to have 30 percent rain chances, mostly overnight and in the early morning. Those rain chances go up Wednesday and Thursday of next week, when we could get some pretty good downpours if the computers are right.
Have a great Friday. Fall equinox is just after midnight tonight, meaning days and nights are equal and rainy season isn’t far away.