Good morning Bay Islands. We wake up to mostly clear skies and seas 1-2 feet. We will stay mostly dry through Saturday, but our winds, especially in the evenings, will pick up to 15-20 mph from the east tonight and tomorrow night and 20-25 mph on Saturday night. Sunday we will start to see our weather change as our norther (cold front) approaches. We will have scattered showers Sunday, more widespread showers Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday could be days with very heavy rain and a cool north breeze.
I have two rainfall maps for predicted rain on Tuesday.

The US GFS has most of the rain to our west, but still gives us an inch and a half on Tuesday.

The Euro has a more typical setup for a norther, where the winds from the north run into the mountains on the coast, giving La Ceiba the heaviest rain and less rain the farther north you go from the coast. Most models give us 2-4 inches before the rain decreases next Thursday, but there is a chance some areas get more — much more. Have a great Wednesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. We have some clouds and a few thundershowers to the east of Guanaja. Those are weakening as they move west. Guanaja and perhaps even east Roatan will see some clouds over the next few hours and perhaps a small shower or two, but nothing major. Our forecast continues to be mostly sunny and hot for this week. We have 2 foot seas and east winds 10-15 mph this morning. We’re going to see winds and seas pick up as we go through the week, 2-3 feet tomorrow, 3-4 feet Thursday and Friday. Winds especially in the evenings will get up around 20 mph toward the end of the week.

Lots of folks have been asking about the weather for our near-total solar eclipse. Right now I’d say it looks pretty good. We should have some high clouds in advance of our cold front next week, but the cold front itself will still be to our north, so we should have partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Get ready, because it will be our last solar eclipse this good until Dec. 6, 2067.

The big story next week is the norther that is on the way. Scattered showers will increase as it approaches Sunday evening, Monday and Tuesday. Right now Wednesday and Thursday of next week look like days of heavy rain.

This will bring great relief from the heat. This is a heat index (the temperature our body feels) map for this week and next. Notice the light brown we are surrounded with this week? Those are heat indexes well over 100 degrees (38-40C). When the front gets here starting the beginning of next week, our heat indexes go down to red (80s) and orange (70sF, around 24C). It will be a noticeable cooldown. Have a great Tuesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. At 6:50 a.m. we have some storms well to the east of Guanaja moving slowly toward the west. If they can hold together they might reach Guanaja around 9 a.m. Otherwise most of us are mostly sunny.
We start out with mild winds and seas around 1 foot, but this week will not be flat calm like last week. This evening winds will get up 10-15 mph and seas to 2 feet. This week most mornings will be fairly calm, but each evening winds and seas will pick up a bit, to 2 feet early in the week and to 3 or 4 feet later in the week.
We are watching our first norther (cold front) of the rainy season that will cause rain to increase starting next Sunday and may actually bring us north winds and heavy rains a week from Wednesday. Have a great week!

Oct. 7, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. Here on Jonesville Point we got .2 of an inch around 2 a.m., but most of the weather stations were dry overnight.
Our satellite shows mostly clear skies this morning, with a storm northwest of Utila and heading away from the islands.
Our seas are up ever so slightly to about a foot and a half. Winds and seas will remain fairly calm through Monday morning. Monday evening winds will be around 10 mph and seas to 2 feet. next week winds and seas should be up a little, 10-15 mph and 2-3 feet.
Tonight the rain chance is 30 percent and tomorrow night it is a little better at 40 percent. Have a great weekend!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our beautiful weather continues into the weekend with east winds 5-10 mph nad seas at 1 foot. Our rain chances at night are going to start to get better, maybe 20 percent tonight, 30 percent Saturday night and 40 percent Sunday night. Next week looks a little windier, especially at night with seas getting to 2-3 feet. Rain chances continue to be small through next week. Have a great Friday!

Good morning Bay Islands. The satellite is mostly clear this morning with a few clouds between Utila and Roatan. Skies will be mostly clear and rain chances very low today and tomorrow.
The best chance of rain comes tomorrow night into Saturday morning and Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Winds and seas will remain fairly calm through Sunday. Starting Monday evening winds will pick up to 10-15 mph and seas to 2 feet and maybe even 3 feet. Low tide is 9 a.m. but it won’t be very low. Have a great Thursday!

Good morning Bay Islands. There are a few scattered showers, especially out west. There is very little movement in the atmosphere, so these clouds are drifting east very slowly. The sea is almost flat calm.

Winds 5-10 mph and seas at calm to 1 foot are expected to continue through the weekend. Chances of showers continue to be small through Friday, but rain chances should be a little better over the weekend, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning.

I know a lot of you are making plans for the eclipse on the morning of Oct. 14 and that’s still a long way off. There are no major storms in the forecast, so right now it looks likely that the weather will be OK, but we’ll keep an eye on it.

This is one of the best forecasts I’ve ever had for an entire week and, fortunately, it is a week when lots of people will beoff of work. We will have mostly clear skies, small chances of rain and any rain we get will be quick. Winds and seas will be calm. It is possible the rain chance will go up a little as we get into the weekend. Have a great Tuesday!

We actually had a pretty average month of rain for a change. After being well below average most of 2023, we got 4-5 inches of rain in September, a number that was pretty consistent across the island. Utila fared worse, with 2.29 inches, thought two of their reporting stations were down part of the month so some locations probably got more. We will go with Sandy Bay’s 4.94 to put in the books.

October is typically the start of rainy season, especially the last two weeks of October, but the rainfall can be wildly different. 2004 had under 3 inches and 2008 had almost 48 inches. I looked it up and there was a tropical depression that caused massive flooding that year.

While the average for October is 16 inches, 10-12 inches is not uncommon. Right now we are not in a wet season pattern yet. That starts when cold fronts from the States make it close enough to push rain down here. The two week forecast on the GFS model has one of those forecast for Oct. 15, so it may start right on time.

Good morning Bay Islands. At 6:40 a.m. we have a shower midisland that brought about a quarter of an inch to the east end. It may head west out to sea before reaching WB and WE.

There are more showers east of Guanaja. If they hold together they could bring a chance of showers 8-9 a.m.

We will have a good chance of a morning shower and even a few scattered showers during the midday and afternoon.
Winds are around 5 mph and seas a little over 1 foot. Winds and seas will remain quite calm this week. Starting tomorrow and for the rest of the week there will be our normal 30-40 percent chance of a passing shower, mostly at night and early morning. Have a great week, especially if you don’t have to work!