Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Helen Murphy who has lived on the island since 1986! This was taken from the First Bight area, which is where the municipalities of Roatan and Santos Guardiola meet, the dividing line of east and west Roatan.

We’ve had some good morning showers across the islands with over an inch and a half near Pristine Bay.

The satellite looks better today than it has previous days, with only scattered showers, mostly of the “popcorn” variety. We should see plenty of sun, but there will continue to be chances of showers, but rain totals shouldn’t be high today. Tomorrow should be very similar to today as well. Winds will be light and variable but we will continue to have seas around 3 feet. Rain chances go up Saturday as our next norther approaches.

The main effect of our norther will be the winds. Winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph on Saturday and seas at 4 feet. Sunday morning winds will be from the northwest at 22-30 mph and seas 5-7 feet especially on the north side. Winds and seas should calm slightly Sunday afternoon. Rain Sunday into the first part of next week will be light as the cooler air pushes moisture out of the clouds, but rain totals should not be very high. Into the first and middle part of next week we will feel very pleasant conditions and a lot of islanders and those of us who have lived here long enough will want to wear their jackets.

Low tide is 4:08 p.m. Lowest tide is tomorrow at 4 a.m. Have a great Thursday.

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Paiz Sloane at Mangrove Bight in Guanaja. I love being able to include Guanaja here because all the islands are part of our effort to keep the Bay Islands safe and informed. Paiz is bringing down a new weather station which will be our first one on Guanaja. Thanks so much!!!

We have been dealing with some showers and a few rumbles of thunder this morning. From now until Saturday we will be dealing with scattered showers, but we will be seeing a bit more sun today through Saturday than we did yesterday.

Rain will be possible throughout the day, but more likely in the mornings and late evenings. Middays give us the best shot of sunshine.

The wind forecast is still a little tricky because we are still in an area of variable winds, but they will generally be lighter (7-15 mph) and more and more from the west. But some areas could experience occasional gusty winds, especially near squalls. Seas will start to calm from the current 4-5 feet to 3-4 feet.

Winds pick up on Saturday and especially Sunday as a norther passes through, bringing northwest winds 25-30 mph (perhaps up to 40 mph in Guanaja) and seas 5-6 feet especially on the north and west sides. The models are moving this front through so quickly that there isn’t as much rain as you would expect from a norther. We’ll keep an eye on it. After the norther moves through we will have quite cool conditions with highs perhaps only in the 70s.

As you can see on the forecast map, after the norther moves through, things look pretty clear behind it for much of next week. The forecast as we get toward Christmas Day actually looks pretty nice.

Low tide is 3:17 p.m. Lowest tide is 3:07 a.m. under a dark sky with no moon. Have a great Wednesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Phil Sikora and it shows a rainy sky at Carib Bight, just below Juticalpa. I chose it today because it is how our norther has been: A lot of clouds, a little blue sky here and there and some rain.

Looks like so far the far west side of Roatan has been the driest with only about an inch of rain, about 2 inches Sandy Bay 2-3 inches Utila and 3-4 inches on the east end.

We’ve been very fortunate because a lot of rain overnight fell to our north. I would imagine if we could measure rain in the open sea we’d see some totals around 8 inches.

On satellite we can see the dense rain clouds to our north. We’re seeing a few breaks in the clouds this morning over the islands.

Our wind forecast for today and tomorrow will be very tricky because it looks like a small low pressure system is forming just to our north. The arrows here show the predicted wind direction at 5 p.m. today in the Euro model. It shows Utila getting a strong westerly breeze but Guanaja getting a mild southeast breeze. Most of the models and trying to give us westerly winds, perhaps gusty at times, later today into tonight and tomorrow. That would mean wavy conditions at West End which is usually calm. The wind models are all over the place on wave height and direction so I would urge boaters to be very careful and notice your local conditions, because they will be different from east to west across our islands and can change quickly the next couple of days. Starting Thursday most models agree we will have westerly winds into the weekend. We are looking for another norther on Sunday that may bring strong northwest winds.

As far as rain goes, we will have periods of rain today and probably another 1-2 inches for most folks. Starting tomorrow the rain will be more scattered. There’s a good chance of seeing a shower each day through Saturday, but also periods of sun and clouds. The norther on Sunday looks like it should be more wind than rain. We’ll keep an eye on it.

Low tide is 2:30 p.m. Lowest tide is 2:20 a.m. Have a great Tuesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Kim Shiveley Kennedy and features clouds off of West End. I picked it because we will see a lot of clouds and some rain today as our weak norther gives us 5 foot seas. Seas are similar on the north and south sides because the seas and winds are coming from the northeast following the direction of our island, which runs northeast to southwest.

Here are our rain totals so far. Most of us should expect another inch of rain under mostly cloudy skies.

Tomorrow we will have scattered showers in the morning but drier with more sun in the afternoon. Winds will turn to the east 10-15 mph and seas calm to 3-4 feet.

Saturday and Sunday will be nice with only a very low chance of an isolated shower. Saturday winds will be from the east 17-22 mph and seas 4 feet. Sunday will be calmer with winds 10-15 mph turning to the northeast in the afternoon and seas 2-3 feet.

Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday we get our next norther. Several of the models say this will be a strong one, with lots of rain and wind. The GFS, which is often one of our more accurate models, is predicting less rain (2-3 inches) and moderate seas. But if the other models are right, we could get heavy rains and high seas those days. We’ll keep an eye on it.

Lowest tide is just before midnight. Have a great Thursday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Gail Rolinger. It shows rain in the background at Camp Bay Beach. I love this picture because it shows what a lot of rain on the island is like, a wet moment in an otherwise sunny day. A lot of times people get scared they will be rained out when they see a high percent chance of rain, but all-day rains are pretty rare in the islands. We’ll actually have a day like that today, with scattered showers and our winds turning to the northeast, as a norther gets closer. But we will also have periods of sun. Rainfall may get a bit heavier as we get later in the afternoon as winds from the northeast pick up to 10-15 mph and seas 3-4 feet.

Here are rainfall totals so far today. Utila got a shower around 3 a.m. Many locations should get a quarter to half an inch of rain as showers pass over today.
Tomorrow should be the rainiest day of the week, with more clouds than sun, northeast winds 15-20 mph and seas 4 to maybe 5 feet coming from the north/northeast. Rainfall totals may be 1.5 to 2 inches.

Friday rain totals should be lower, but there will be still scattered showers around. Winds will turn back to the east at 7-12 mph and seas 3 feet.
The weekend looks nicer, with only an isolated shower here or there. East winds will be strong on Saturday at 15-20 mph and seas 3-4 feet, but winds and seas will be calmer on Sunday. We are still watching another norther for Monday and especially Tuesday, but there is some disagreement as to how strong the norther will be.

Lowest tide will be around 11 p.m. Have a great Wednesday!

Our picture of the day comes from Deborah Robertson, showing a double rainbow. With showers around the islands today, especially this morning, we may see a few more of these.

This morning on radar we see a shower southeast of West Bay that is moving northwest, so West Bay may catch a shower in the 7 o’clock hour.

This is our rainfall from last night through this morning at 7 a.m. you can see that the east side got the majority of the rain, an inch and a half at Camp Bay.

On satellite we see a large cloud that moved over Guanaja this morning. I’d be interested in hearing from you guys in Guanaja if you got rain out of this.

We will keep showers around, especially this morning. This afternoon should be partly cloudy with a lower chance of a shower. Winds today will be from the east 15-20 mph with seas 3 feet on the south side and 2 feet north.

Rain chances go up again tonight and tomorrow morning, but again tomorrow we should have periods of sun and less rain in the afternoon. Wednesday and Thursday is when a weak cold front comes through, bringing better chances for rain, a slight turn of winds to the northeast and seas back up to around 4 feet, especially northside. Rain lingers into Friday. Saturday and Sunday look nicer, with maybe a 30 percent chance of a shower. Rain return Monday and Tuesday of next week with another norther and this one right now looks a bit stronger, so maybe some heavy rain first of next week.

High and low tides remain pretty mild. Have a great week!

Good morning Bay Islands. This morning’s picture of the day comes from James Oden, showing sunset in Sandy Bay. Thanks so much for the pictures. Keep them coming at bookmybio@gmail.com.

On satellite this morning we can see that most of the clouds are well to our northeast. We have mostly sunny skies and east winds 15-20 giving us seas 3-4 feet. Those winds and seas will stick with us through tomorrow, dropping to 12-17 mph and 3 feet on Tuesday and 5-10 mph and 2 feet on Wednesday. Thursday a weak norther pushes our winds out of the northeast at 12-17 mph and seas to 4 feet.

We will have a small chance of rain this evening or tonight into tomorrow morning. Rain chances get a little better Tuesday to around 40 percent. Wednesday and Thursday have the best chances of rain as we get a weak norther. These won’t be all-day rains, but most of us should get wet this week. Most models predict 1-2 inches, with most of it coming Wednesday and Thursday. Have a great Sunday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Mr. Ira Pouchie and shows the moon reflecting off the waters of Calabash Bight. If you have a photo you would like to share, send it to me here or at bookmybio@gmail.com.

At 6:30 a.m. we see a few showers on radar.

These are the morning “popcorn” showers. If you get one, it should pass by quickly and most of our day will be mostly sunny and dry. Our winds start out at 15 mph and seas 3 feet. Winds will be 20 mph and seas 3-4 feet by evening.

Winds and seas will be much the same (15-20 mph winds, seas 3-4 feet) through Monday. They will calm a bit Tuesday and Wednesday to 2-3 feet, but an approaching cold front will build seas back to around 4 feet for the end of next week with the swell coming from the northeast.

Rain chances are low today and tomorrow, but get a little better Monday and Tuesday (isolated or scattered showers), and even better Wednesday through Friday as we get scattered showers from a norther.
The long range forecast is trying to give us a stronger norther toward the middle of the month. We’ll keep an eye on it.

High and low tides are still pretty mild. Have a great weekend!