Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Tabitha Henry in Sandy Bay, along with a note that the calm waters made it look like the cruise ship was floating on air.

Those calm waters will last through about Wednesday, along with small chances of rain, mostly overnights and early mornings, but otherwise beautiful weather.

Changes in our weather start Thursday and Friday with a tropical waves passing through and increasing our rain chances. Over the weekend a norther is coming that will increase our rain chances and we could see some periods of very heavy rain, and we will also have to watch for the possibility of some sort of tropical storm in the Western Caribbean. We are still too far away to know for certain, but we will keep an eye on it. Have a great Sunday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Nancy Sikora in Carib Bight near Jonesville Point.

Our weather today will be beautiful with mostly clear skies and light winds out of the east and seas 1-2 feet. Tomorrow we will have a 20 percent chance of an early morning shower, but tomorrow should be mostly nice, too. Early next week we will have 30 percent chances of morning showers, but we are watching for a tropical wave Thursday into the weekend. We are still watching if it starts rotating and turning into something like a tropical depression, but for right now it doesn’t look too bad. Winds should get up to 15 mph end of the week with 3-4 foot seas though. Have a great weekend!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Kathy Deegan in Coco View. I made the mistake yesterday of pulling up the wrong tide chart and saying we were close to full moon. We are not. We are actually close to quarter moon, but even quarter moon can be quite a site as it rises over our calm waters. Our forecast is starting to look drier.

We have very few clouds this morning which, along with calm winds, makes us feel quite warm. Yesterday the airport got to 86 for a high and only cooled down to 75 this morning. We will see more of that today and tomorrow and maybe a degree or two warmer with low or no chance of rain. Sunday into Monday we are looking at maybe a 30 percent chance of rain. Early next week each day will have a 20 percent chance until we get to Thursday. The models are now very divided as to whether we will get a tropical wave late next week, so we will keep an eye on it.

If you are planning your cruise or other vacation to the islands, you have picked a great time. Waters are calm and rain chances going back down. Make sure to check out Jolly Roger Roatan for a guaranteed great time.

Normal low tides should return in a week, but for now tides are quite moderate. Have a great Friday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Colleen Tennyson Bodden taken Monday from St. Helene.
We have finally been able to dry out after a long period of rain. Our dry period now looks like it should last through Saturday, though our chance of a passing shower will go up a little on Saturday. Rain chances go up Sunday, about 40 percent each day for the period Sunday through Tuesday. Mid to late week we are still looking at some sort of tropical wave.

This is the Canadian model and it is the only one trying to make our tropical wave into a tropical storm late next week. Much like with Rafael, if this happens, it could actually mean LESS rain for us as the storm moves to our north. Most other models show disorganized showers over the islands, especially Thursday and Friday of next week.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Winds are light and variable and seas around 1 foot and these conditions will last for awhile. It is a perfect time to go online or to a ticket outlet and purchase your Galaxy Wave tickets from Roatan Ferry. Also, don’t forget to check out their Guanaja route.

We’re closing in on full moon. Have a great Thursday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Claire Staffa, who caught some impressive, dark cumulus clouds at sunrise on Oct. 30. We should be seeing fewer cumulus clouds over the next few days as we get a much-needed break from the rain. Unfortunately there is more rain in the forecast for next week.

Let’s start with the satellite at 7:30 a.m. where we see Tropical Storm Raphael bringing rain and some wind to Jamaica. It is expected to strengthen and there are hurricane warnings for the Caymans and western Cuba. As predicted, though, this storm has brought us a little relief from our rain by drawing in moisture away from us. We will have lots of sun and a few clouds. It won’t be impossible to see a shower or two, but it should soon pass if you get one. We will be hotter than we’ve been, with highs into the upper 80s and lows around 78 or 79 through Friday.

Raphael will be caught up in a cold front in the US this weekend. The tail of that cold front will bring us higher rain chances this weekend.

As we look toward next week we are reminded that we are still in hurricane season. Toward the middle of next week, the GFS sees some sort of tropical cyclone building in our part of the Caribbean. Since it is so far away, this isn’t an exact forecast, but most models agree the middle of next week will again be rainy, with the possibility of some sort of tropical development. We’ll keep an eye on it.

For those of us with friends in the Caymans, tell them to be watchful later today into tonight for a Category 1 Hurricane with winds 70-80 mph and lots of rain.

One more week of these very mild tides. Have a great Tuesday!

Rainfall for October 2024: We have had quite a rainy period. If I asked you if October was well above average or close to average, which would you pick?

Well, guess what? October was only 2 inches above our average October rainfall. We put nearly 19 inches in the record book and that was about average throughout the islands, just under 20 inches. On average, November is our rainiest month with 17.5 inches on average. We are well on our way to that number, though I think this coming week will be below average.

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Dethyra Ebanks and shows sunrise at Flowers Bay.
We had quite a bit of rain overnight, especially Guanaja and Utila, which each got over an inch. The week ahead looks less rainy.

First let’s take a look at our satellite at 7:40 a.m. Most of the rain is now to our south, with a few popcorn clouds, especially over Helene and Barbarat. We will keep a chance of showers around through the morning, but we should stay mostly dry midday and afternoon. Best chances of showers will continue to be overnights and early mornings. As we get to the end of the week, even those should be less and I think Wednesday through Friday we have a good chance of staying dry.
A weak norther should bring us rain and west/northwest winds 10-15 mph next weekend.

We still have an 80 percent chance of a tropical cyclone forming but the models all agree that it will move well to our northeast. In fact, it may keep us drier than normal by drawing in all the moisture. We will keep scattered showers in the forecast Monday and Tuesday morning, but I don’t expect a whole lot of rain and, as mentioned earlier, the end of the week looks quite dry.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: This morning we have mostly northeast winds 5-10 mph, but we are still dealing with swell that keeps our seas 2-3 feet. As the storm passes north of us, we will keep those 3 foot seasa as the winds turn to the west, but still only around 5-10 mph. Toward the end of the week we will see quite calm sea conditions.

This coming week, especially Wednesday through Friday, will be perfect days for a seaside barbecue with the best meats on the island, custom cut at Carniceria Rosita.

Tides continue to be mild. Have a great Sunday.

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Guido Bertea in Lawson Rock. Our November winner gets a $50 gift certificate to Umbul Umbul.

Many of us midisland have already gotten over an inch of rain. This weekend we will continue to mostly overnight and early morning showers, but things should get drier as we get into next week.

A reminder for your TV watching and scheduling Zoom meetings with North Americans. North America will fall back tonight one hours (except Arizona, Hawaii and Saskatchewan). So the US Central Time zone (Chicago, Dallas) will be back on our time zone.

There is now an 80 percent chance of tropical cyclone development, but you will notice we are outside of the red box. The storm may actually make us DRIER as it pulls in all the moisture closer to Cayman and Cuba.

Here is the US GFS and you can see the storm moving well to our north. You can also see there is a lot less green (rain) on top of us starting Monday.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Winds continue to be light and mostly from the northeast, but because of swell (winds in other places) we continue to have 3 foot seas. Those conditions will continue until Tuesday when the storm give us a west/northwest wind that will still be light, but seas may get up to 4 feet northside.

Low tides continue to run high. Have a great weekend.