Tropical update for Sept. 27, 2021: We have two storms coming off the African coast. Both have an 80 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next five days. It is always a little concerning when you see them this far south. Most models have these turning north and/or dissipating as they approach the Lesser Antilles, but this far out you never know. One model, the ICON from Germany, keeps them together as they approach the southern Lesser Antilles.. We’ll keep an eye on them.

Sept. 27, 2021: Good morning Roatan! Some of us saw a shower in the 3 o’clock hour this morning. We got .03 of an inch on Lucy Point, Coral View got .12, Sandy Bay got .01.

Today winds should get up around 10-15 mph but seas will stay fairly calm, perhaps getting up to 2 feet (.6 meter) this evening.

The week ahead looks pretty dry and the winds and seas, while not dead calm, will be pretty mild. Have a great week!

Sept. 26, 2021: We had hoped for some rain this morning and it doesn’t seem to be happening yet. But there is hope as the satellite map from 8:30 a.m. shows. Winds will be 10-15 mph later today with seas at 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 feet). The chance at scattered showers continues through tomorrow morning, but mostly the week ahead looks dry and calm. It may be a little windier than last week, especially in the evenings, but not much. Overall, still a good week to get out on the water. Have a great Sunday!

Sept. 25, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! Yesterday’s rain proved how different rainfall can be on the island, even across small distances. Mud Hole picked up half an inch, but just down the road in Sandy Bay, they only registered .04 of an inch. Coral View got a third of an inch, while Politilly got .01 and we got .03 on Lucy Point. Larry Rapp reported a tenth of an inch in a shower yesterday morning in West Bay.

Today is the day winds should start picking up, getting to 12-17 mph by afternoon with 2 foot seas. Overnight into tomorrow morning we should have a decent chance at rain.

Monday should have winds in the 10-15 mph range and seas 1-2 feet. The week ahead doesn’t look too windy, but not quite as dead calm as last week. Unfortunately it also looks mostly dry. Have a great weekend!

Sept. 24, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! Around 2 a.m. we got a brief shower on Lucy Point, but not enough to register in the rain gauge. There are a few clouds approaching from the north that may give someone a late morning or midday chance of a shower.

Otherwise we’ll have partly cloudy skies and continued calm winds and seas. Those calm conditions last through tomorrow morning, but winds should return Saturday night, along with a decent chance of rain.

Winds on Sunday will be 12-17 mph with 2 foot (.6 meter) seas and a chance of a shower throughout the day.

Early next week looks mostly dry with only small chances of mostly overnight showers and winds staying in the 12-17 mph range. Have a great Friday!

Sept. 23, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! Looks like we are in a cycle where we are getting more scattered showers. That’s a good thing to keep the dust down, as we get ready for the rainy season. we had almost a tenth of an inch this morning about 7 a.m. on Lucy Point. The same rain cloud dropped just .01 of an inch on First Bight and Coral View, but gave Sandy Bay a third of an inch. Joe Byrne reported a quarter of an inch in Punta Blanca last night.

We will continue to see partly cloudy skies and scattered showers today and tonight, with east winds 5-10 mph and seas at 1 foot (.3 meters). Tomorrow will be very similar to today.

Saturday winds should start to pick up a little bit, and Sunday they should be back in the normal range of 12-17 mph with seas at 2 feet (.6 meters). Saturday night into Sunday looks like a good chance of rain for everybody. Have a great Thursday!

Sept. 22, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! Yesterday I said the sea looked like glass. We’ll today it is even glassier, as you can see in my view from my seaside door with Jonesville on the right. I awoke to a downpour at about 4 a.m. and thought for sure when I checked the gauge it would show a good bit of rain, but it only showed .01 of an inch. Politilly got .02. No one else on Roatan reported measurable rain. Mark Krueger reported better than half an inch this morning in Utila.
Today we will have calm winds and seas and a chance of a scattered shower throughout the day into tonight.

There will be a little more of a breeze tomorrow, perhaps 5-10 mph, but seas still relatively calm and only a very small chance of a shower. Friday will be very similar.

Saturday the winds will start picking up a bit and Sunday should see the return of trade winds. Right now Saturday night looks like the best chance of rain this week. Let’s hope so, because next week is looking dry again.

Yesterday we had a little concern that the storm that is likely to become Hurricane Sam could make it into the Caribbean. Today we have less worry. All computer models are now in agreement that this storm will turn north as it approaches the Leeward Islands. There is still uncertainty as to whether it will turn before getting to Puerto Rico though. We’ll keep an eye on it.

I don’t know about where you’re at, but at Lucy Point the sea looks like a sheet of glass. Pretty calm. Both West Bay and Utila reported sprinkles but no measurable rain this morning. Those calm conditions should last for awhile.

We’ll have east-northeast winds 5-10 mph and seas at 1 foot (.2 or .3 meters) and a chance of a popup shower, especially toward nightfall.

Tomorrow looks like it could be EVEN CALMER than today, with winds light and variable and seas probably less than 1 foot. There will be a chance of a popup shower, even during the day. Right now the forecast calls for the return of trade winds on Sunday.

This morning we have a tropical disturbance near Africa that has the potential of becoming the next named storm, which would be Sam. The video here is the Euro’s prediction for it from Sept. 25 to Oct. 1. As you can see, it has the storm skirting the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico.

This is the GFS model for the same time period, during which it predicts it stays out in the Atlantic.

Only if the storm stays near the southern edge of its predicted path do we have to be concerned. We’ll keep an eye on it.

Sept. 20, 2021: Rain! Glorious, wet, puddle-making rain! Along with thunder. We also had three or four power outages here on Lucy Point, I’m guessing from lines that had accumulated salt finally getting wet. The thunder was pretty loud as well. You can see the lightening strikes in the radar loop, first at mid-island then over the east side. The rain totals got greater the further east. Larry Rapp in West Bay only reported a trace. Sandy Bay got .07, Mud Hole .15, Coral View and First Bight .27, Politilly .59, and here in Lucy Point .35.

Today we will have east-northeast winds 7-12 mph and seas at 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 meters). Only a small chance of an overnight shower (we were actually fortunate to get the shower last night. It was one of the only ones around.)

Tuesday we will again have winds 7-12 mph and 1 foot seas. Tuesday night there will be a better chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Wednesday into the weekend winds look fairly calm with decent chances at rain. Have a great week!

Sept. 19, 2021: The weather headline for this week will be fairly mild winds, which will make it a good week for boating, snorkeling and diving.

Today we’ll have east/northeast winds 12-17 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters).Tonight into tomorrow morning we will have a chance of a scattered shower.

Monday and Tuesday winds will be in the 7-12 mph range and seas at 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 meters)Wednesday through Friday winds will be even lower, perhaps. 5-10 mph and seas at 1 foot (.3 meters) and rain chances should be a bit higher. Hopefully most of us will get in a good downpour this week. Have a great Sunday!