Oct. 28, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! The cold front that has been racing across the United States the last several days is now in the Gulf of Mexico and is set to pass through on Friday night bringing us a cooler weekend before rebounding and giving us a good chance of rain on Tuesday. Today we’ll have mostly sunny skies and calmerOne of the things we are most looking forward to this weekend is getting some drier air in here. In the U.S. and Canada, the temperatures vary greatly. Where I lived before coming here, in Oklahoma, the temperature in the winter could get down around 0 degrees (-18 C) and in the summer could get as hot as 110 degrees (43 C). Here the temperature has never been recorded below 65 (18C) and a well-placed thermometer (in full shade) will rarely get much above 93 (34 C). Most of the time, our temperature is in the middle 80s (30 C) which is not oppressive. What makes it feel so hot? The humidity. A good way of expressing how humid it is, is by giving the dewpoint, which is the point at which the humidity would be 100 percent. Hot air can hold more water than cold air can, so humidity is more noticeable in hot temperatures. It keep your sweat from evaporating, which is one of the main ways your body cools itself.

This chart says that dewpoints above 75 are miserable. Thus far in October, the LOWEST dewpoint I have recorded is 75. Most of the time during the day it is over 80. the highest I’ve recorded is 86. The temperature can never go lower than the dewpoint. So on a typical day on the island, let’s say the temperature is 85 (30 C). Not so hot right? But let’s say the dewpoint is 81 (27 C), which is pretty average. That creates a heat index (how it feels on your skin) of 101 (38 C). Pretty hot. That’s why this weekend is so exciting. Many forecasts say our dewpoints will go down to 63 (17C). This chart calls that “sticky.” But if you live on the island you NEVER feel air that dry unless you are in air conditioning (one of the primary things an AC does is dry out your house, which is as important as cooling it). Enjoy!

Oct. 28, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! The cold front that has been racing across the United States the last several days is now in the Gulf of Mexico and is set to pass through on Friday night bringing us a cooler weekend before rebounding and giving us a good chance of rain on Tuesday.

Today we’ll have mostly sunny skies and calmer winds, from the east at 7-12 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters).

Tomorrow the winds will switch around to the west at 15-20 mph and we will have increasing clouds throughout the day and an increasing chance of showers.

Our best chance for rain comes Friday night into Saturday morning. The rain should clear out Saturday and we should have noticeably cooler weather. Our highs should be around 80 (26 C) and lows around 76 (24 C), but the big difference will be the drier air Sunday and Monday which should make things very comfortable. Later today I will talk about dewpoints and the effect they have on how hot it feels. Have a great Thursday!

Oct. 27, 2021: Good morning Roatan! If you keep up with the local weather stations on Wunderground, you will notice a new addition in Sandy Bay. Many thanks to Dave and the great folks at SOL for putting up a new weather station, which will be a great educational opportunity for the kids there.
Our weather will continue to be pretty boring today, with winds 15-20 mph and seas around 3 feet (1 meter) and clear skies. Winds get calmer tomorrow as our front approaches. Winds will be 5-12 mph and seas around 2 feet (.6 meter) and a small chance of rain, especially at night.

Friday we’ll see our winds turn around from the west at 10-15 mph and increasing chances of rain as the day goes along.

Friday night into Saturday morning will be our best chance of rain, and winds will switch to the north/northwest at 10-15 mph. Exactly how much rain depends on where our cold front stalls out.

This European model suggests the front will move to our south, giving us Sunday and Monday with comfortable temperature and dewpoints with no rain. The U.S. GFS model suggests that only Sunday morning will be cool and that the front will rebound and keep us wet Sunday into Monday. It’s hard to tell right now, but we’ll definitely enjoy some cooler conditions this weekend.

Oct. 26, 2021: Our clear and windy conditions will continue today and tomorrow. Winds will be 15-25 mph from the east and seas will be 2-4 feet (.6 – 1.3 meters). Winds should get calmer on Thursday in advance of our cold front, set to arrive Friday night into Saturday morning. We’ll have a chance of rain with this front, but it is not a sure thing. We should get north winds and noticeably cooler weather at least for the weekend. Have a great Tuesday! Oh, and I hope you like our new logo!

Oct. 25, 2021: The wind and surf are definitely up over what they have been the last few weeks. That will continue with winds 12-17 mph and seas 2-3 feet (.6-1 meter) during the day and 17-22 mph and seas 4 feet (1.3 meters) in the evenings. Skies will be mostly clear and no meaningful chance of rain. We’re still looking for a front to come through Saturday. There looks to be very little rain with the front, which would be the first time I’ve experienced that in 2 1/2 years on the island. Behind the front the humidity should drop, making the air feel cooler for Sunday.

Oct. 24, 2021: No rain the last 24 hours. At 8 a.m. we have some clouds and perhaps some showers east of Guanaja, but they seem to be falling apart.
The week ahead looks dry and windy. It’s TRW (Typical Roatan Weather) but with even lower rain chances. We’ll have winds from the east/southeast 12-17 during the day and 17-22 mph in the evenings, with seas 2-3 (.6 to 1 meter) during the day and perhaps getting up to 4 feet (1.3 meters) in the evening. That should continue until about Friday.

We are now getting good agreement that a cold front should actually pass through. That would mean chances of rain Friday and Saturday. If it passes through, by this time next week our temperatures should be a couple of degrees cooler, but where we would really notice it is in the humidity. Our dewpoints could get down to the mid 60s (17 or so C), which will feel quite comfortable. Have a good Sunday!

Oct. 23, 2021: The big news this morning is that we have a chance at our first “norther” of the season next weekend. The video shown here is the water vapor prediction in the European model. It shows the drier air, shown in green and blue, pushing the wetter air (yellow and red) out of the way about Oct. 31. The U.S. model thinks the front will stall just to our north and bring us good chances of rain, but none of the cool, dry air that comes when a front passes through. It is hard to say this far out, but in my experience, the more aggressive models (front will pass through) tend to be wrong and the more conservative models (front will stall) tend to be correct.

Today we will have TRW (Typical Roatan Weather) with east winds 10-15 mph and seas 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 meters) and about a 30 percent chance of a shower, especially in the evening.

Tomorrow we’ll have winds 12-17 mph and seas 2-3 feet (.6 to 1 meter) and a 20 percent chance of a shower.

After that, rain chances get really, really small and the wind sticks with us. Have a great day and Go Braves!

Oct. 23, 2021: Last night we had a classic storm scenario for the Bay Islands. It is the reason why typically the farther west you go, the rainier it gets. A storm with very high cloud tops and impressive lightning near the center formed near the mountainous north coast of the mainland and reached out to the north. It looks impressive on satellite and was — for the island of Utila. They got about 2.5 inches of rain over a four hour downpour. But you can see how it weakens as it moves north. Based on the satellite, you might be fooled into thinking that West Bay HAD to have gotten some rain from this, but it is our understanding that no one on the island of Roatan saw any rain from this.

Oct. 22, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! It seems like most folks mid-island got rain last evening, but those on the edges (West Bay to the west and Camp Bay to the east) missed out. We got a quarter inch on Lucy Point, which was about average for those who got rain.

The satellite image is from 9 a.m. today and shows the rain dancing around us.
Today we will continue to keep a decent chance of rain in the forecast, especially this evening and overnight. Winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters).

Tomorrow we will have similar winds and seas, but the rain chances will start decreasing.

By the first part of next we will have minimal or no chance of rain, so let’s hope we can get in on the action while we can. Brisker trade winds in the 20 mph range at seas at 3 feet (1 meter) also return next week after a long absence. Have a great Friday!

Oct. 21, 2021: There were scattered showers around last night. Sandy Bay reported .07 of an inch, Mud Hole got .04, Coral View .23, Politilly .15, Lucy Point .06, and even Camp Bay got in with .20, their first measurable rain in awhile.

Today we’ll have a pretty decent chance of seeing rain, especially in the overnight hours. Winds will be from the east at 12-17 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters). Tomorrow rain chances continue with calmer winds from the east/northeast 5-10 mph and seas at 1 foot (.3 meters).

This weekend the rain chances go down to around 20 percent overnights. Sunday will be the windier of the two days, with east winds 15-20 mph. Right now next week is looking pretty dry. Have a great Thursday!