Oct. 15, 2021: Today I’m seeing about a foot of surf on the reef which is more than I’ve seen in a while. Today we should have winds in the 7-13 mph range, but starting tomorrow they will be even calmer. There’s virtually no chance of rain, but the chances will got up every day through Tuesday.

Tomorrow there will be a small chance of a shower, Sunday about a 40 percent chance, and by Tuesday rain will be likely. We should also be seeing clouds increase, which will give us some relief from the heat. Through the whole period, winds should be very calm. Have a great Friday!

Oct. 14, 2021: Yesterday around midday we got .05 of an inch in a quick downpour. We received a report that Flowers Bay also got a shower.
Our weather will continue mostly calm and still with only a very small chance of you seeing any rain in your neighborhood. This weekend will have higher chances of showers and early next week will have an even greater chance.

We have a cold front approaching from the north. This is a little early in the year to hope for a cold front to pass through, and this one likely won’t, but it may get close enough to lower our temperature a few degrees and give us some rain. As you can see in this forecast model that runs through Wednesday night, the closest approach of the front is forecast for Tuesday. That should be the coolest, wettest day. That will definitely be nice. Have a great Thursday!

Oct. 12, 2021: The weather we’ve been having recently is why I always advise tourists to come in October. It is the calmest time of the year, making it easy to go boating, fishing, snorkeling and diving. This will be a week that well illustrates the advantage of visiting Roatan this month. We’ll have fairly calm winds and seas all week. We may get a little breezier at night up to 10-15 mph. There will be very little chance of any rain before the weekend. Enjoy some time in the sea this week!

Oct. 11, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! Yesterday afternoon we got a brief shower that gave us .02 of an inch of rain. Aside from an early morning shower yesterday in Sandy Bay, I could find no other recorded rain on the island.
Today we have mild winds around 10 mph that should rise to 12-18 mph this evening and 1 foot seas that should rise to 2 feet by evening.

Tomorrow should be even calmer than today and still no meaningful threat of rain. Starting tomorrow night we might add in a small chance of a shower, perhaps 20 percent. Winds will stay pretty calm during the day and only around 12-17 mph in the evenings.

This weekend rain chances will increase, but probably only to about 40 percent. Have a great week!

Oct. 10, 2021: Sandy Bay picked up .06 of an inch early this morning. Politilly got .32 of an inch around midday yesterday. Most of us stayed pretty dry.
This week we’ll see fairly calm mornings with evening winds in the 10-15 mph range and seas getting up to 2 feet. There will only be a very slight chance of an overnight shower each day. Have a great Sunday!

Oct. 9, 2021: No rain has been measured on the island since yesterday morning. Today we will have fairly calm winds and seas. Tonight we’ll have a small chance of rain, but after that things look pretty dry.

Tomorrow will be calm as well.

Winds should pick up on Monday into next week, but only at about 10-15 mph and 2 foot seas, so that won’t be too bad. Have a great weekend!

Oct. 8, 2021: Rain totals for the last two days are as follows:

West Bay – 2.1 inches
Sandy Bay – 1.98
Mud Hole – 2.06
Coral View – 1.46
Politilly – 1.07
Lucy Point – 1.13
Camp Bay – 1.8
In the end, the models turned out to be pretty accurate. I doubted we would get as much rain yesterday as we did, but I was wrong and the models were right.
Our tropical wave is now in the Pacific trying to become a tropical storm and potentially threatening the Mexico coast. Today we will have partly cloudy skies and a chance of a shower, especially in the evening. Winds will be from the east/northeast at 10-15 mph and seas at 2 feet. Tomorrow winds will be lighter at 5-10 mph and seas at 1 feet. There will also be a chance of an evening shower tomorrow, but after that things look pretty dry starting Sunday and into next week. Trade winds should pick up a little on Tuesday.

We haven’t mentioned it much, but we are in a period of king tides, with perigee (the closest approach of the moon) aligning with the new moon, so seas have been up about a foot and a half over the average low tide and low tides haven’t been very low. Have a great Friday!

Oct. 7, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! Most of us got between half an inch and three quarters of an inch of rain, much of it last night, though First Bight reported about an inch and a half. Utila checked in with .75 of an inch.

Today rains will be more scattered, perhaps a 40 percent chance, and mostly this evening. Winds will be in the 12-17 mph range and seas at 2 feet.

Tomorrow will be calmer, with winds 5-10 mph and seas at 1-2 feet. Rain chances will also be lower, around 30 percent.

Those conditions will continue through the weekend. Next week looks dry and a little windier. Have a great day!

Oct. 6, 2021: The rain is on the way. It should start for most of us today, last through the night and into tomorrow. Most models forecast 1 to 2 inches over the next two days. Winds will be 5-10 mph this morning and 15-20 mph tonight and tomorrow. Seas are pretty calm this morning, but should get up to 2 feet tonight and tomorrow. Starting Friday, rain chances will be back down to around 30 percent and mostly at night. Enjoy the rain!

We are still on schedule to have a tropical wave pass through Wednesday night into Thursday. The European model only wants to give us an inch, but the U.S. model is indicating two inches. My guess is some folks will be in between, but you know when you get under a tropical downpour, the inches can build up quick.

This map shows the U.S. model prediction for rain into Friday.

Today we should have relatively calm winds and seas and a small chance of a scattered shower early and a good chance late in the day.

Tomorrow we’ll have a good chance of rain during the day and winds will pick up into the 10-15 mph range, with seas at 2 feet.

Wednesday night should be the rainiest, with winds up to 20 mph and seas at 2 feet. Those winds and seas will follow us into Thursday with a good chance of rain. Calmer conditions and smaller chances of rain should return for the weekend.

Have a great Tuesday!