July 1, 2022: Good morning Roatan! Our tropical cyclone, which still has not reach tropical storm status yet, is bringing rain to the coast of Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica as of 8 a.m. this morning. As the day moves along it will quickly move across Central America and emerge into the Pacific, where it is expected to strengthen, perhaps into a hurricane. But this system has a history of underperforming the models. Nevertheless, this could be a big rainmaker for southern Nicaragua. It will sweep some moisture our way and bring a good chance of rain tonight and through much of tomorrow. It should also bring 20 mph winds from the east and 3-4 foot (1-1.3 meter) seas.

Sunday we’ll keep some clouds around and east winds 20-25 mph, but there will be a lower chance of rain, around 30 percent.

Next week will be a week of moderate winds and seas (10-20 mph and 2-3 foot seas) and 30 to 40 percent chances of rain each day. Have a great Friday!

June 30, 2022: Good morning Roatan! Yesterday rain threatened much of the day and some of us got quite a bit. Punta Blanca picked up nearly an inch and Mud Hole got .62, while West Bay only got .03.

Today and tomorrow should be very nice, with mild winds and seas and partly cloudy skies. There will be a small chance of rain, especially in the overnight.

The models are now saying our storm, which could be named Bonnie later today. Will likely stay tropical storm strength as it nears the Nicaragua/Costa Rica coast. Some moisture may sweep our way Saturday, but it shouldn’t be too heavy. Winds should pick up from the east to around 20 mph and seas to 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters).

Next week looks very similar to this week, with mild to moderate winds and seas and 30-40 percent chances of rain each day. Have a great Thursday!

June 29, 2022: As you can see by the predicted path and predicted wind field of the storm currently off the Venezuelan coast is well to our south, on the southern coast of Nicaragua. Any effects we get will be mild.

Today we awoke to more clouds than we’ve been used to. Expect a partly cloudy day with rain chances increasing into the evening and overnight. Winds will continue moderate, out of the east around 15 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters). Tomorrow our rain chance will be a little lower, perhaps 30 percent and Saturday looks dry right now. Sunday evening we may get some moisture from the tropical system, giving us some scattered showers Sunday evening into Monday.

As you can see in the US GFS model, the wave of moisture from what could be TS Bonnie might pull a little moisture over us Sunday evening. This is far from a sure thing, though, and depends on the exact track of the storm.

Good morning Roatan! We’ve had a gorgeous 24 hours of weather and that should continue with moderate winds and seas and mostly clear skies. Wednesday night into Thursday morning there will be a higher chance of rain as a wave of unsettled weather passes over.

The National Hurricane Center still gives our South American storm a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical system. You will note we are outside the forecast for the center to pass over, what is called the “cone of uncertainty”. If this becomes a tropical storm (probably Bonnie) or a hurricane, the center is most likely to strike Nicaragua or even Costa Rica. But that doesn’t mean it won’t affect us this weekend.

This is this morning’s US GFS forecast. If this were to happen, the storm would strike the Mosquito Coast of Nicaragua, but the storm would then move inland and toward us. If this were to happen, we could expect winds up to 40 mph Sunday evening. This is just one possible outcome. The European model has this storm skipping across Costa Rica and becoming a Pacific hurricane.

June 27, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! We awoke to clear skies and mild winds and no rain in the last 24 hours. The conditions should continue today and tomorrow with daytime winds around 10 mph and seas 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 meters). Nighttime winds will be 15-20 mph and there will be a small chance of an overnight popup shower.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be our next good chance of rain. After that all eyes are on the potential tropical storm, right now called Invest 94L but which could become Tropical Storm Bonnie. Most models show it developing as it moves toward Trinidad over the next 24 hours. Models still show it coming toward Nicaragua Saturday, but the US and European models are leaning toward it staying a tropical storm (not a hurricane) the whole time. It still has the potential to bring showers and choppy seas our way this weekend. Have a great week!

The National Hurricane Center has the storm that could become Bonnie up to an 80 percent chance of forming in five days and 60 percent in the next 48 hours.

The chart shown here demonstrates how unusual a June tropical system striking South America is. The two in June were one in 1933 and TS Bret in 2017 that caused the deaths of two people in Trinidad.

The only other thing I can say about the latest runs is that they are trending southward, so you will note the forecast track from NHC shows it possibly going as far south as northern Costa Rica.

The National Hurricane Center now has our storm near Guyana at a 70 percent chance of becoming at least a tropical depression in the next five days, and chances are good that the next 24 hours could see it actually become a tropical storm. It is entering and environment of low shear (winds that compete with and weaken tropical development at the higher levels of the atmosphere) and deep moisture.

The storm, which could become Bonnie, will hug the Venezuelan and Colombian coastlines, possibly even making landfalls and weakening somewhat in the process. But most models say it will survive into the Caribbean where it will have a rich environment for development.

If you look at the model intensity guidance, the important point for us is the 144-hour mark, which is when it would make landfall, likely in Nicaragua. At that point about half the models have it as a tropical storm (39-73 mph sustained winds) and about half have it as a category one hurricane (74-95 mph). Of course, if it makes landfall in Nicaragua, our winds wouldn’t be near that high. We would probably get 35 mph winds and choppy seas. Remember Eta and Iota in 2020 made landfall in the same general area as category 4/5 and we experienced winds that were at the most in the 40 mph range.

This is the Canadian model, and as you can see this predicts a worst-case scenario for us, with the storm hugging the northern coast of Honduras and cutting between us and La Ceiba. Again, this is a week out, so it lots of things can change, but stay weather aware as we get toward Saturday.

June 26, 2022: Good morning Roatan! We stayed dry the last 24 hours ending 8 a.m. Wind speeds for much of this week look to be stable, in the 10-17 mph range from the east, with 1-2 foot (.3 to .6 meter) waves. All in all it should be a nice week for swimming and boating. There will be small chances of rain, especially overnight tonight and tomorrow. Tuesday and Wednesday look like very dry, with perhaps a 10 percent chance of a popup shower. Thursday and Friday the rain chances go up with a wave of moisture. As for the potential for tropical weather this weekend, I will post a separate tropical update. Have a great Sunday!

June 25, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! We got a quick bit of rain early this morning and so did Politilly, but only a few hundredths of an inch. Today we will have a fifty fifty chance of rain, especially toward evening. Winds will be from the east/southeast 15-20 mph. Seas will be 2 feet (.6 meters), perhaps around 3 feet (1 meter) by evening. Rain chances will be lower tomorrow through Tuesday before going up again Wednesday and Thursday.

We are still looking at the possibility of a storm brewing in the Atlantic and coming this way. The clouds right now are off the coast of the Guyanas. We are a long way away from the storm getting to our neighborhood, which models predict would be around July 2. It is way too early to get worried, but it is unusual for so many models to have this much agreement this early in the game. The forecast map here is the European model. It is similar to the US model, but perhaps a little stronger. It shows the storm hitting midcoast of Nicaragua. We’ll keep an eye on it.

June 23, 2022 and tropical update: Good evening, Roatan! Sorry for missing this morning. Last night most of us got somewhere in the neighborhood of an inch of rain. It was long overdue and much needed.

As you may know by now, long-range forecasts are trying to bring a tropical system our way. We had a false alarm earlier, but this one is different, because more than one model agrees something is brewing in the eastern Atlantic and BOTH the GFS and the European model are bringing it close to us. If it happens, it would get near us around July 2. That is a long way away, but it is something to watch. Tomorrow will be a beautiful day, by the way, with calm winds and seas and a small chance of a shower. Winds pick up this weekend to around 20 mph. Have a great evening!