Good morning Bay Islands. We are deep into what is normally hurricane season, and we FINALLY have some potential storms to look at. The one we are concerned about is the red X below. The yellow X will move well north of us, but the red X has the potential to give us more rain in five days, right around Aug. 18. But it is unlikely to be a hurricane, or even a tropical storm.
This is one of the latest ensemble charts of where different computer models think this storm will go. There is very strong high pressure to our north, which will push this storm, in all likelihood, south of us, into the coast of Costa Rica. Almost all of them keep this storm weak (as shown by the green color) because of wind shear (winds blowing different directions at different levels of the atmosphere) keeping this storm from getting good circulation. There is one outlier that shows it coming closer to us and getting a bit stronger, so we do need to keep an eye on it, but right now models that usually over-exaggerate these storms five days out, are very doubtful this becomes a strong storm. In all likelihood, we will have a rainer day early next week due to this.
As for our current forecast, we are mostly sunny after a very small shower around 5 a.m. gave West Bay a couple hundredths of an inch of rain. We should be dry most of today, but tonight into tomorrow morning and tomorrow night into Saturday morning we again have good chances of showers. We are a bit calmer today than we’ve been, with east winds 10 mph and seas 2 feet. Tomorrow we will be back to 15 mph and 3 feet.
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Low tide is 3:20 p.m. under a new moon. Have a great Thursday!
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