Jan. 26, 2023: Good morning Roatan! This morning we have a front (norther) to our north and some clouds and showers to our south and east.

At 8 a.m. radar is picking up some showers near Cayos Cochinos.

Today we will have calmer winds than we’ve been having, with winds from the east at 15 mph in the morning and from the northeast at 10 mph in the afternoon. Seas will calm to around 2 feet (.6 meters). We will have increasing clouds and an increasing chance of rain through the afternoon. Rain chances will be highest overnight.

Tomorrow after a chance of morning shower, the afternoon should be partly sunny with only a small chance of a shower. Winds will be from the east around 15 mph and seas 2-3 feet.

Tomorrow night there is a decent chance of rain, but there should be less rain tomorrow night than tonight.

Saturday there is a small chance of a morning shower but we will be mostly dry with east winds 15-20 mph and seas 2-3 feet.

Saturday night into Sunday morning there is a very small chance of rain, perhaps 20 percent, and Sunday should be mostly sunny with east winds 15 mph, gusting to 20 mph Sunday night, and seas 3 feet Sunday and 4 feet Sunday night. Monday there is some indication of scattered showers, but after that the week should be mostly dry. We are still watching the possibility of a norther the following weekend. Have a great Thursday!

Jan. 25, 2023: Good morning, Roatan! We definitely had a windy night! We had a gust of 34 mph here on Jonesville Point. We have one more windy night ahead before things start getting calmer. Today will be mostly sunny and winds will be around 15-20 mph and seas around 3 feet. (1 meter)
Tonight winds get back up to 20-25 mph and seas to 4 feet.
Tomorrow things look quite a bit calmer, with the approach of a cold front.

You can see the front in this morning’s satellite stretching from Jacksonville, Florida through the Gulf of Mexico.

This forecast map shows the front approaching and weakening as it gets closer. Right now it looks like most of the rain will stay to our west. Many of the models only give us about a quarter of an inch for the whole period Thursday through Saturday. The further west you are, the more likely you are to see good rain, so Utila has a better chance than we do here on the east end. Winds tomorrow will be 7-12 mph and seas around 2 feet. We will have increasing clouds during the day and our best chance of rain is probably Thursday night into Friday morning, but there will be a chance of rain Friday, Friday night and Saturday morning, but much of the time we will have partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. Winds will be from the east/northeast at 12-17 mph and seas around 3 feet Thursday through Saturday.

Starting Saturday afternoon our rain chances go down and Sunday into next week we will have clear skies and a return of stronger easterly trade winds. Another cold front will get close the weekend of Feb. 4 bringing us another increased rain chance. Have a great Wednesday!

Jan. 24, 2023: Good morning, Roatan! We got our early morning shower, which got up to half an inch of rain in Sandy Bay and mostly between a tenth and a quarter of an inch for the rest of us.

As you can see on the radar and satellite at 6:50 a.m. the rain is mostly west of Roatan, though Utila may pick up a shower from this wave between 7 and 8 a.m.

Today we will have a very small chance of a shower in the morning, followed by clear skies and increasing winds from the east. By sundown our winds will be gusting to 30 mph so be careful on the seas.

Winds will be gusty tonight, but should calm a bit by the first ferry tomorrow morning, with 7 a.m. winds 15-20 mph and seas 3-4 feet here and 1-2 feet at Ceiba. Tomorrow will be sunny and dry. Tomorrow night winds get back up to 20-25 mph.

Thursday winds will calm to around 10 mph and start turning to the northeast. Seas will be 2-3 feet. We will have increasing clouds during the day and a good chance of rain, especially in the evening and overnight into Friday morning.

Friday afternoon winds continue fairly calm around 10 mph and seas around 2 feet. Friday afternoon should be partly cloudy with only a small chance of rain.

Rain chances go up again Friday night into Saturday morning.

Saturday afternoon into the first part of next week we should stay mostly dry with easterly winds about 10 mph during the day and 20 mph at night. Have a great Tuesday!

Jan. 23, 2023: Good morning, Roatan! We have something in the forecast for this week that we didn’t have last week. Rain! Probably not a whole lot of rain, but I think most of us will get wet, especially at the end of the week.

As you can see in the map, the first cold front (norther) is very weak and will collapse before it can bring us any northerly winds. But we have a chance at rain tomorrow morning, anywhere from midnight to around daybreak. The chance of rain will be better the further east you go. The second cold front will be stronger, but not strong enough to switch our winds to the north. Seas Thursday through Saturday will be from the northeast at 3-4 feet because of winds to our north, while our winds will stay in the 10-15 mph range. Rain totals should be better the further west you go, perhaps an inch in total for most of us.

The forecast today is for clear skies and winds getting calm this afternoon and seas at 2 feet.

Tonight we will have increasing clouds with a chance of rain after midnight (50 percent for Guanaja, 40 percent for the main island and around 20 percent chance for Utila).

Tomorrow will get windy in the afternoon, with east winds 20-25 mph and seas picking up to 5 feet by sunset.

Wednesday will be windy and dry, especially in the afternoon, with east winds 20-25 mph and seas 4-5 feet.

Thursday winds calm to around 10 mph and shift to the northeast. Seas will be around 3 feet Thursday through the weekend. The best chance of rain is Thursday night into Friday morning. Have a great week!

Jan. 22, 2023: Good morning, Roatan! Our seas this morning are a bit calmer than they’ve been previous mornings. They are right at 3 feet (1 meter) and winds will calm as we go through the day to 10-15 mph, giving us 2 foot seas (.6 meters). Winds will get back to 20 mph and seas to 4 feet, but through the day tomorrow winds will calm to 7-12 mph and seas to 2 feet, perhaps a bit less in areas. Through the day Tuesday winds will be gusty again to 15-20 mph and Tuesday night to 25 mph.

Thursday through Saturday a cold front will get close enough to give us a good chance of showers through those days. Right now the rain totals don’t look like that much, and winds will continue to come from the east with perhaps a slight tilt to the northeast at times. Have a great Sunday!

Jan. 20, 2023: Good morning, Roatan! We awake to seas between 4-5 feet near Roatan and 2 feet near Ceiba and winds 20-25 mph.

Today winds will not calm as much in the afternoon as they have previous days. Afternoon winds should still be 15-20 mph from the east, and seas 3-4 feet.

Tomorrow we should get some drier air, so the day may feel a little fresher than today. Sunday and Monday afternoon winds should calm to 7-12 mph and seas to 2 feet, but we’ll still be breezy overnight. There’s no rain in the forecast until at least Thursday and the following weekend look like one for scattered showers, but not a huge rain event. Have a great Friday!

Jan. 19, 2023: Good morning, Roatan! Yesterday we mentioned that the east side was far windier than the west side and Utila, but last night Utila got up to 17 mph winds and the West Side about 20 mph. This morning we’re dealing with gusty winds and 4 foot seas, though only around 2 feet around Utila. We have some clouds to our east, but those will only bring us mostly sunny skies and no real chance of rain. Winds will calm today around 15 mph from the east and seas to 2-3 feet before rising again tonight to 20-25 mph and 4 feet. Today and tomorrow we will we a little more humid which will make it feel hot, though some drier air is on the way for the weekend which should make it feel a little cooler (though not as cool as it did Monday). No rain until the end of next week, and even then it doesn’t look like a huge chance of rain. Long-range forecasts give us good rain at the end of the month and the first of February. We’ll keep an eye on it. Have a great Thursday!

Jan. 18, 2023: Good morning Roatan! We wake up to 25 mph winds from the east and seas at 4 feet, especially on the east side of the island. As you go west, the less wind you have, especially in Utila, which has almost calm winds and 2 foot seas. Like we always say, when we have these easterly winds, your ferry trip may start out a little choppy, but it will get calmer as you head toward Ceiba.

Even here in Roatan, winds will calm by midday to 10-15 mph and seas to 2-3 feet. We will continue this cycle of quite windy nights (20-25 mph, seas 4-5 feet) and somewhat calmer days (12-17 mph, seas 2-3 feet) for the rest of the week in to the weekend and into the beginning of next week. The next good chance of rain comes midweek next week. Have a great Wednesday!

Jan. 17, 2023: Good morning, Roatan! We enjoyed a day of sunshine a fresh winds yesterday. That was the pleasant feeling of dry air that we don’t get very much in the tropics. For most of us, we didn’t get above 79 degrees (26C) despite having full sun all day, and our dewpoint (a measure of how much humidity is in the air) didn’t get above 71 (21C). Those temperatures give us a heat index (what it feels like) of 82 (28C). Compare that with a typical day in May when the temperature is 89 degrees (32C) and the dewpoint is 79 (26C). That gives us a heat index of 105 (41C). When you have dry air like we have right now, you can really tell the difference when you’re it in the shade. It feels much cooler than being in the sun. When it’s very humid, even being in the shade feels hot.

We don’t need to talk about rain this week, because it’s not going to rain, so I thought we’d talk a bit more about how it’s going to feel this week.

I’ve posted a map that shows the moisture in the air through Thursday Jan 26. Blues and browns are dry air, yellow is a little moister and red is very moist. You will notice Wednesday afternoon and Thursday we get some yellow, which means the humidity will go up those days. That will make it feel a bit hotter. But we get dryer air Friday into the weekend. That makes it feel fresher. Not until Thursday Jan 26 do we get the kind of moisture that will give us scattered showers. So for the next week we’ll have sunny skies with temperatures that are warm, but “not too hot for around here,” and breezy days with seas around 3 feet, windy nights with seas around 5 feet. Have a great Tuesday!

Jan. 16, 2023: Good morning Roatan! Several of us got into the upper 60s this morning, with Sandy Bay recording a low of 66.7 degrees (19.3C), just .7 of a degree from our all-time low on the island. Yesterday was the kind of cloudy, wet day we usually associate with northers. No more of that this week.

We have some low clouds to our east, but they shouldn’t be anything to worry about. We will have partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies today with winds turning to the east at 10-15 mph and seas 2-3 feet (.6-1 meter). This will be the first day of a very dry week.

Tonight winds will pick up to 18-23 mph and seas to 4 feet (1.3 meters).

Tomorrow winds will be 10-15 mph and seas to 3 feet (1 meter).

Look for some gusty nighttime winds, perhaps gusting to 30 mph, especially Wednesday night and Thursday night. Daytime winds should calm to 10-15 mph. Have a great week!