Feb. 17, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands. We had our windiest night yet last night, with winds up to 39 mph at 10 pm and seas on the south side got over 7 feet. This morning seas are back down to 4 feet on the south side and 2 feet on the north side. The good news is that the seas get better for the weekend.
Winds will be 15-20 mph this afternoon and seas at 3 feet. Ferry trips will be OK all the way through Monday, with seas toward Ceiba at 1 foot in the mornings and 2 feet in the evenings.
The bad news is that our rain chances have been decreasing. What we thought might be a good chance of rain has gone down to 30-40 percent in the early mornings for Saturday and Sunday and perhaps 20 percent for Monday morning. Tuesday we get back to windy and dry weather. Have a great Friday!

Feb. 16, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands! Winds got up to 36 mph last night and seas were nearly 7 feet at 10 p.m., but they’ve calmed to 25 mph from the southeast and 4 feet on the southside, 2 feet on the northside.
We have another windy and dry day ahead, with winds calming to 20 mph and seas 3-4 feet after noon, but increasing again this evening to around 35 mph and seas to 6 feet.
Friday winds get better, especially Friday afternoon and night with 15 mph winds and 3 foot seas that will stay with us through the weekend. Monday looks even calmer than that. Each night and early morning we will have chances at scattered showers, especially Friday night into Saturday morning, but we won’t have as much rain as we had last weekend. Starting Tuesday the windy, dry conditions return and after that there is no rain in the long-range forecast. It looks like we are really starting to get into dry season. Have a great Thursday!

Good morning, Bay Islands. We definitely got those gusty winds! We got up to 32 mph last night. Seas on the south side are 4-5 feet and 2-3 feet on the north side. Winds will continue gusty through the day at 20-25 mph. If you’re wanting to go on the yacht, the mornings will be a little better, as seas will get calmer toward La Ceiba. On the afternoon trip seas will be 4-5 feet the whole way today and tomorrow. Friday winds start to calm a little, with morning winds at 20 mph and afternoon winds at 15 mph. Saturday winds will be around 15 mph and Sunday and Monday 10-15 mph. Saturday there will be scattered showers and Sunday and Monday there will chances of morning showers. We return to dry and windy conditions next Tuesday. Have a great Wednesday!

Feb. 14, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands! These are our three-day rain totals. Most of us on the big island got around 2 inches of rain, and Utila was the big winner with over 4 inches.

There are a few lingering clouds at 7 a.m. and there may be a sprinkle here or there for the next couple of hours, but today we will dry out and the fresh air will be with us, so enjoy! Winds wil start to pick up this afternoon to around 20 mph. We’re starting out with seas about 3 feet, and they will pick up to around 5 feet overnight. Wednesday and Thursday will be dry and windy, with daytime winds around 20 mph and 3 foot seas and nighttime winds around 30 mph and 5 foot seas. Friday the winds calm a bit to around 15 mph and the weekend looks calmer with scattered showers, though not as much rain as we had this past weekend. Have a great Tuesday!

Feb. 13, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands! We’re seeing some clearing over Guanaja and the east side. Today we will have a mix of sun and clouds, winds calming from where they are now, and a 50/50 chance of seeing another shower. Seas are about 4 feet on the north side and closer to 5 feet by Guanaja, but should calm to about 3 feet this afternoon. Tomorrow looks very nice, though the winds will start to pick up tomorrow night to 20 mph. Wednesday and Thursday are very windy and dry, with east winds 20 mph during the day and 30 mph at night with choppy seas. Winds calm on Friday and there’s a chance of rain Saturday. Have a great week!

Good morning, Bay Islands. I did a video for the norther we are watching this morning.

If you like the video, please subscribe to my YouTube page.

If you prefer to read the forecast, a line of showers along the cold front is just to our west, moving in to Utila right now. Earlier this morning we got some light showers across the island.

We will have scattered showers today and tomorrow, giving most of us between an inch and three inches of rain.

Winds are turning to the north and should get to around 20 mph this evening, giving us choppy seas, especially on the north side, to around 4 feet (1.3 meters).

Temperatures on the coast of Belize are already cool, in the upper 60s (around 20 Celsius). I would be surprised if we get close to that here tomorrow morning.

Tuesday we will clear out and Tuesday night through Thursday we will be dry and windy, with winds 20 mph during the day and 30 mph at night. Next weekend looks calmer with a few scattered showers. Have a great Super Bowl Sunday!

Good morning, Bay Islands. Last night most of the rain missed us to the north. There are a few clouds at 6:20 a.m. to our south that are moving west. They may give the west side and Utila a small chance of a shower during the morning hours, but most of today should be dry.

Here is the current location of our norther (cold front). It should arrive late this evening. The winds don’t look too bad. The highest winds from this cold front should be Sunday evening, but even then they should only be from the north 12-17 mph and seas around 4 feet, especially on the north side.

We will be partly cloudy Sunday and mostly cloudy Monday, with scattered showers both days (as well as Sunday night). This is the projected rain total from the European model through midnight Monday night. It keeps most of the rain to our west and gives Utila about two inches and Roatan about 1 inch.

This is the US GFS rain total. It gives Utila and the west side of Roatan about two inches and the east side and Guanaja about an inch. Expect more rain the further west you are.

Sunday evening into Monday morning we will have the freshest air, with temperatures in the lower 70s. Tuesday will be a fairly nice day with clearing skies. Tuesday night the east winds get gusty again through the middle of next week with dry conditions. Have a great weekend!

Feb. 10, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands! We wake up to 20 mph winds and 4-5 foot seas (1.3 to 1.6 meters) on the south side. Today we will have windy and dry conditions, but clouds will be increasing as our cold front gets closer and tonight into tomorrow morning we should have some scattered showers.
Tomorrow winds will be around 15 mph turning to the northeast and seas around 3 feet (1 meter). Tomorrow there will be scattered showers, especially in the evening. Sunday looks like a pretty rainy day. Winds should be around 15-20 mph and seas on the north side may get up to 5 feet. The chance of rain continues through Monday morning, after that we should dry out. Starting Tuesday we will have a week of strong east winds and dry conditions. Have a great Friday!

Feb. 9, 2023: Good morning, Roatan! We had another windy night last night with winds to 30 mph. That gives us seas this morning of 4 feet on the southside (1.3 meters) and 3 feet (1 meter) on the northside.
Those windy, dry conditions continue today and tomorrow.
Saturday things start to calm, the winds shift to the northeast at 10-15 mph and our rain chances increase through the day into the night.

Sunday has the potential to be a rainy day. The map here shows cooler temperatures in blue (light blue for 2 degrees below normal, darker blue for 4 degrees below normal). Sunday, Sunday night and Monday morning should be quite fresh, with highs in the 70s (around 25C) and lows right around 70 (21C) on Monday morning.
Rain should end Monday morning and starting Tuesday we get strong east winds and dry conditions again. Have a great Thursday!

Feb. 8, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands! We definitely got our easterly winds back again! These winds are called “trade winds” and back in the days of sailing ships bringing cargo, winds like these brought ships from Europe and Africa toward Central America.
Last night we had sustained winds around 30 mph for several hours. This morning winds are back to around 20 mph and seas at 4 feet.
Today, tomorrow and Friday we will have daytime winds of 20 mph and seas 3-4 feet and nighttime winds of 25-30 mph and seas 4-5 feet. Skies will be mostly clear.
Saturday the winds calm as our norther approaches. Right now it looks like most of the effects of this norther will be Sunday, with rain and north winds. The rain may linger a bit into Monday morning, but it should clear out quickly and we will get our east wind and clear skies back starting Tuesday. Have a great Wednesday!