The National Hurricane Center has some storms coming off the west coast of Africa with a 20 percent chance of tropical development over 7 days. Some computers are developing this, but it is more of a threat to the Eastern Caribbean and no threat to us.

The second map is the GFS forecast for midnight Monday night. It has the tropical wave that we’ve been watching for days perhaps getting close to a low-level tropical storm, but it also forecasts it to turn sharply north and away from us.

The third map is the Euro prediction for noon Tuesday. It has a much weaker storm, but it does bring the storm west instead of north. This would be good for us because it gives us a better chance of rain Tuesday through Thursday. We’ll keep an eye on it.

June 15, 2023: Good morning Roatan! We have a shower to the east of Guanaja, but unfortunately it is just sitting there and it will eventually fade away. We have 20 mph east winds this morning and 4 foot seas on the south side and 2 foot seas on the north side. Our windy conditions will continue, getting up to 30 mph in the evenings, through Sunday.
Monday things will get a little calmer as the tropical moisture gets closer to us. Unfortunately most of the models show the storms getting close, but then taking a sharp turn to the north, away from us. We still will have a chance of showers Monday through early Wednesday. Low tide is 1:17 p.m. Have a great Thursday!

June 14, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. The wind has brought us a little relief from the heat, though the high yesterday was 91F (33C) and the heat index was 105F (41C), winds at 20-30 mph make that heat more bearable. The waves have also cooled sea temps a bit. A buoy on the north side is now under 29C (84F) after being well over 30C for awhile. We will continue with the strong east wind and waves 4-5 feet (1.3-1.6 meters) through the weekend. The middle of next week looks calmer, though not completely calm.As for rain, the expected tropical wave continues to disappoint. Our best shot of rain will be Monday, but it is still not a sure thing. Until then we will stay high and dry. Have a great Wednesday!

June 13, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands! Winds are still around 20 mph and seas at 4 feet (1.3 meters) on the south side, around 3 feet on the north side. The wind is here, at least until the weekend.

I’m posting accumulated precipitation maps from both the Euro …

… and the Canadian computer models for the next week. You will notice a river in southern Central America and northern South America. We are on the edge of that river. Just like when you are standing on the edge of a river, sometimes a wave can come and get your feet wet. That’s what we are hoping will happen Sunday and Monday, but right now the computers are only giving us a quarter to half an inch of rain. Let’s hope our feet get wetter than that. Until then we’ll be windy, wavy and mostly dry with only a slight chance of an overnight shower. Low tide is 11:43 a.m. Have a great Tuesday.

June 12, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. Three main headlines in our forecast today: 1. Starting tonight we get strong east winds with nighttime winds gusting over 30 mph and daytime winds 20-25 mph and seas 5-6 feet (1.6-2 meters).
2. Tonight there will be a small chance of a shower, but this week is mostly dry.

The GFS is picking up on the trend of other computer models and pushing our tropical wave further south. It is still trying to give us rain Sunday into Monday, but if this trend continues, I worry that we may not get much rain at all.

Good morning Bay Islands. Yesterday we had a high temperature at the airport of 91F (33C) and a heat index of 111F (44C). Surface sea temps are back over 30C (86F). If you want to enjoy one last day of calm winds and seas, today is your day. Winds will be 10-15 mph this afternoon with seas around 2 feet (.6 meters). Tonight will be a little windier at 15-20 mph, but the east wind really start up tomorrow evening, gusting to 30 mph and seas starting Monday night getting into the 5-6 foot (1.6-2 meter) range.We will have a small chance of a shower Monday night, but this coming week looks mostly dry until we get into the weekend. There are increasingly better chances we will catch a tropical wave and get good rains next weekend, though it still isn’t a sure thing. Low tide is 10:06 a.m. Have a great Sunday!

June 10, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. The high yesterday was again 93F (34C) and heat index 108F (42C). Water temperatures are up almost a degree centigrade to 30.6C (87F). We have relief in the forecast in the form of wind. Tonight will be a little windier at 12-17 mph, tomorrow night around 20 mph, but real relief starts Monday night into next week with winds 20-30 mph. That won’t change the temperature much, but it will definitely change how it feels. Small chances of rain come back starting Monday night. We’re still watching the tropical wave for next weekend. GFS and Euro are still hopeful we get some rain and cooler weather from it. The Canadian model pushes it south of us to the Pacific Ocean. Low tide is 9:06 a.m. Have a great weekend!

June 9, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. Yesterday the airport had a high of 93F (34C) with a heat index of 110F (44C). That’s back to the kind of heat we had before our big Sunday night storm. I’ve been forwarded posts from divers with reading around 90F underwater. The automated buoys are right around 86F (30C) on the surface and 85F 14 meters deep.
We have another couple of days of calm winds and seas. Again, this has been one of the longest calm periods I can remember, but it is coming to an end. We’ll start seeing a little of that Sunday with winds 15-20 mph and seas around 2 feet. Then getting into Monday we’ll see nighttime winds around 25 mph and daytime winds around 20 mph. Seas will be around 4 feet (1.3 meters), getting up to 5-6 feet by midweek.
Through most of next week we’ll have a small chance of overnight showers. We’re still very hopeful that around the 17th or 18th we’ll get a tropical wave that will bring us a very good chance of showers. That would cool things off and give us some much needed rain. Let’s hope it happens. Low tide is 11:50 a.m. Have a great Friday.

Good morning Bay Islands. Yesterday we had a high of 90F (32C) and a heat index of 103F (39C) at the airport. That’s hot, but not quite as hot as the high of 94F (34C) and heat index of 110F (43 C) before the storm Monday night. Sea temps have also cooled a bit to just under 30C (86F), but the longer we go without rain, those temps will creep up again. And the rest of this week definitely looks dry and calm.
The following week looks quite a bit windier, with nighttime winds up to 25 mph and seas to 4 feet (1.3 meters). Next week we should have small chances of overnight showers.

I’m including a forecast map of the weekend of the 17th, because the GFS is predicting a wave of moisture that weekend. It wants to spin a tropical system into the Gulf of Mexico after that, but for our purposes, we really hope this wave of moisture happens, because it would give us some much-needed relief. But it is a long way off and no forecast a week and a half out is very reliable. Have a great Thursday.

June 7, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. We got a little windy yesterday afternoon, but we should be much calmer today through the end of the week. Winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph and seas 1-2 feet. We will also be dry through the weekend, with a chance of an overnight shower returning Monday night. Monday is also when our easterly trade winds return with 20-25 mph winds and seas around 4 feet. Have a great Wednesday!