Aug. 24, 2023. Good morning Bay Islands. This morning the storm on the Pacific side of Nicaragua is still expected to move north. We will continue to deal with clouds and scattered showers through Saturday morning. Oddly the same computers that are saying this storm will move north are not predicting a huge amount of rain for us, but we will be mostly cloudy with occasional showers and if we get a heavy rain we can get an inch quick like many of us did yesterday morning. Winds and seas will remain fairly calm except I’m squalls. We may get some 15-20 mph winds Saturday morning if the storm forms as expected. Have a great Thursday.

Aug. 23, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. At 7:30 a.m. there are quite a few showers and thundershowers out there. These showers on radar are moving to the southwest. We will have a good chance of seeing a shower through the day today. Those good rain chances last through tomorrow. Winds should be calm at 5-10 mph and seas at 1-2 feet, except in squalls. We are still looking at the possibility of increased rain chances Thursday night into Friday morning as a small disturbance comes north from the Pacific across the country. Most of the models see something coming this way, though the Euro is still the strongest on it. But even the Euro says the winds shouldn’t be much more than 20 mph Friday morning.

August 22, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. I decided to do a video because the forecast is complicated.

To make a long story short, we should have scattered showers, especially tonight into tomorrow. We will continue to have mild and variable winds and seas 1-2 feet (.3-.6 meters). The European model is trying to give us a tropical depression Thursday night into Friday morning, but even if it is true, it would only mean westerly winds around 20 mph Friday morning and heavy rain Thursday night. The GFS and Canadian model disagree and just give us typical scattered showers and light winds.

Good morning Bay Islands. Last night between 10 and 11 p.m. we had some thunderstorms pass over the islands that gave most of us about a tenth of an inch of rain, but West Bay got about a third of an inch. We recorded winds gusting to 40 mph during the squall on Jonesville Point. After the storm ended our winds calmed back to around 5-10 mph where we are this morning, with seas 1-2 feet. Winds and seas will continue fairly calm this week, except in storm squalls.

Our area of the Caribbean is fairly clear this morning, so we should have dry conditions this morning. But we will continue have very good chances of showers and thundershowers, especially late in the evening, overnight and early mornings through the week.

There are three tropical storms out there, the closest being Tropical Storm Franklin,

but it will take a sharp turn to the north tomorrow and away from us. We are not in danger of any tropical storms currently. Have a great week!

Good morning Bay Islands. Overnight Punta Blanca and Politilly got a little rain around 2:30 a.m., enough to get the ground wet. Midmorning yesterday much of the west side of the island got about a tenth of an inch.

This morning on radar we have a few showers west of Utila, but those are moving south and away from the islands. We are experiencing very calm winds and seas and those will continue today under mostly sunny skies. The rain chance is very low today and tonight. The chance of scattered showers is a little better Monday evening into Tuesday morning and even better Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.
Today and much of this week, winds and seas will be quite calm, mostly around 1 foot (.3 meters). It will be a great week to be on the sea, aside from an occasional shower that should come and go quickly.

As you can see on the National Hurricane Center forecast map, there’s quite a bit of activity in the Atlantic and one storm, called 90L, that has entered the eastern Caribbean. This is the time when some people get scary messages saying a hurricane is coming. Don’t believe it.

As you can see in this map, almost all of the models have this storm turning north over Haiti and Dominican Republic and heading out to sea. None of them have the storm hitting us. Right now none of these storms are any threat to the islands. Have a great Sunday and enjoy the calm conditions.

Good morning Bay Islands. We wake up to clear skies, east winds 10-15 mph and seas around 2 feet. Today winds and seas will stay around 10-15 mph and 2 feet, but we are looking at some super calm conditions for the weekend with winds 5-10 mph and seas 1-2 feet (.3-.6 meters), even calmer toward Utila. Monday we will be back to 10-15 mph winds, but starting Tuesday and into next week we should get super calm again. A great time to take your boat out on the sea.
As for rain, we look mostly dry into Sunday. Sunday night into Monday our rain chances go up and we should have 30-40 percent rain chances most days next week, especially at night and early morning.

The tropics definitely are more active as we get toward the end of August. We have a category 4 Hurricane Hilary about to hit Baja and create flooding in the deserts of southern California.

But of more concern to us is the tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center showing in the western Atlantic. I have given you an arrow to show which of the several potential storms it is. The NHC is giving this storm a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next 7 days, but most of the computer models are turning it into something. But they also seem to agree that upper level winds from the south will push this storm north around midweek.

This is where the storm is now.

Here it is on Monday night.

Here is where it is forecast to turn to the north, over Haiti and Dominican Republic.

And finally moving into the Atlantic on Friday. Our concern is what if the models are wrong about the storm turning north? If it doesn’t turn north, it would be something for us to worry about next weekend. Right now that is a very low chance, but it something to watch this week. We’ll keep an eye on it. High and low tides are not very strong right now. Have a great Friday!

At 7:40 a.m. we have some showers between Guanaja and Barbarat. In the 8 o’clock hour some of these may make their way into eastern Roatan.

Over the next three days we will continue to have partly cloudy skies and small chances of overnight or early morning showers. Rain chances go up Sunday evening into Monday.
East winds today will be 15-20 mph and seas 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters)
Winds tomorrow will be 10-15 mph and seas 2-3 feet (.6-1 meter)
The weekend looks quite calm, with winds 5-10 mph and seas 1-2 feet (.3-.6 meters). Low tide is 3:10 p.m., but it won’t be very low.

We’re still watching two potential tropical storms in the Atlantic. Most models aren’t forecasting much for these storms and, even if they develop, they will likely stay in the Atlantic.

Hurricane Hilary is due west of Acapulco right now and there are tropical storm warnings up for southern Baja peninsula. If you have family or friends in Baja or southern California, they should watch out. Sunday night into Monday Hilary should move into southern California with heavy rains and some wind. A recorded storm has never moved into California as a hurricane, and only three storms have made it into California as tropical storms: Nora in 1997, Kathleen in 1976 and Long Beach storm in 1939. This one will very possibly become the fourth tropical storm to move into California. It will be a welcome relief from 115 degree temperatures for folks in the desert areas of southern California. Have a great Thursday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Last night some of us got a thunderstorm around 8 p.m. We even got a wind gust of 49 mph on Jonesville Point. But we only got .15 of an inch in the downpour. Many other locations reported a similar amount, though Palmetto Bay reported over half an inch and West Bay and West End reported none.

This morning we have storm clouds to our east which will give us a chance of rain through the morning hours, but the rain is generally moving to the northwest and most of it should miss us. Usually there isn’t a big difference in rain chances among the islands, but this morning I’d give Guanaja a 50/50 shot at rain this morning, 30 percent for Roatan and 20 percent for Utila.

Otherwise, today will be partly to mostly cloudy with east winds 10-15 mph and seas 2 feet. This week we will continue to see decent chances of rain during the night and early morning hours.
Wednesday through Friday look a little windier with east winds 15-20 mph and seas 3 feet during the day and 20-25 mph and seas 4 feet at night. This weekend winds should be calmer and late in the weekend or early next week rain chances go up. Low tide is 2:15 p.m.

There are two disturbances on the latest National Hurricane Center outlook. The one on the left has a very low (10 percent) chance of development through the next seven days, but its motion is generally toward the Caribbean. While none of the major computer models are making much of this, they do put a lot of moisture into the Caribbean next week and, this time of year with these water temperatures, anything can happen. We’ll keep an eye on it. Have a great Tuesday!

Aug. 14, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. We have a few showers north of the islands, but we are mostly dry and sunny this morning. We will stay mostly sunny today with east winds 15-20 mph and seas at 3 feet. Tonight and tomorrow morning we will have a 30 percent chance of scattered showers and winds tomorrow and Wednesday will go down to 12-17 mph and seas 2-3 feet. Wednesday night winds will get back up to 20-25 mph. Through the middle of the week we will have a 20 percent chance of overnight and early morning showers and partly cloudy skies. Rain chances should go up this weekend. Low tide is 2 p.m. Have a great week!

Good morning Bay Islands. Last night we missed out on the rain, which was all around us but for the most part we stayed dry. We will definitely stay dry today, as you can see in the humidity map, some upper level dry air is moving in which will give us mostly sunny skies today.

We will also have quite a bit of wind from the east, helped in part by the Pacific storm to our south. East winds today will be 20-25 mph and 4 foot seas, getting up to 30-35 mph and 5-6 foot seas overnight. Tomorrow east winds will be 20-25 mph and seas 3-4 feet. Tuesday and Wednesday look a little calmer at 12-17 mph and seas around 3 feet. We will have decent chances of rain overnight and early mornings, 30-40 percent most evenings starting tomorrow evening. Have a great Sunday!