Good morning Bay Islands. There were scattered showers this morning across our islands and low rain totals.

Our cold front is just to our west and our storm is well to our east. It got stronger overnight and that could mean some stronger north winds, around 20-25 mph, coming midday today and some choppy seas, 4-5 feet, on the north side.

Along the front there are some rain showers which could pass over the islands mid-morning. I don’t look for a whole lot of rain, but we could get a quick downpour. Things will improve this afternoon, and I think we will begin to notice fresher weather, even with sunshine.
We will have beautiful weather, if a bit windy. Winds will be from the north/northwest today and tomorrow 15-25 mph and from the west for the weekend 17-22 mph on Saturday and 10-15 mph on Sunday. Winds turn back to the east on Monday through the first part of next week.
After potential showers midmorning, things should be nice, with low chances of rain through the weekend. There is a week disturbance that might pass through and give us a shower Sunday morning, but other than that we should be mostly dry into next week. Another norther may be coming Thursday of next week with rain and north winds.

Here’s our tide chart for today. Lowest tide was at 4:18 a.m.

Have a great Thursday and a big shout out to our sponsor Rosita’s Meat Market in Coxen Hole and French Harbor. I don’t have to tell you they have the freshest meats. When you stop by, thank them for supporting local weather forecasts.

Good morning Bay Islands and hello Utila! you guys have gotten quite wet this morning with 1.5-2.5 inches since 3:30 a.m.

You can see a heavy shower on satellite right over the islands at 6:15 a.m. This activity is drifting south-southwest. There are scattered showers around the other islands too.

Chance of a tropical depression is down to 50 percent. The fact that it is further east means we will get less rain today than originally forecast. I think today will be a lot like yesterday. Mostly cloudy with a few peeks of sun and scattered showers. Someone asked for an explanation of what the orange box really means and what it tells us about the future of the tropical system I will do that during my video today.

The potential tropical storm is still centered off the coast of Colombia and will stay far enough away that it won’t have a direct impact on our weather. What will have an impact is the cold front north of Yucatan. It will likely bring a wave of rain tomorrow night. Behind it we will have improving weather with maybe a few light showers Friday and Saturday and a really nice Sunday and Monday.

Today and tomorrow we will still be dealing with scattered showers, light winds except in squalls and seas around 3 feet. When our cold front arrives, seas will be up to around 4 feet. Have a great Wednesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Here is the rainfall since midnight.

And here is our rainfall yesterday. Not much. Most of us got around a quarter of an inch or less.

This morning most of the rain is lifting north of us. We have storms to our east, but they are moving northwest and will probably weaken as the morning goes on. Looks like just scattered showers this morning with periods of sun and periods of clouds.

The National Hurricane Center has given potential Tropical Storm Vince a red X, meaning that they believe the center of low pressure is now off the Mosquito Coast. It has a 10 percent chance of becoming a depression through two days and 70 percent through seven days. It is forecast to move northeast, away from us.

Most of the models give us an inch to an inch an a half of rain today and around 2 inches tomorrow. Rain lingers into Thursday morning, but after that our rain chances go down and a cool north breeze builds in. There will still be isolated cool showers Friday into Saturday, but probably clear skies Sunday and Monday and some of the most beautiful fresh weather we’ll ever experience here. Next week looks nice with only isolated showers. Have a great Tuesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Only a little rain this morning by 6:30 a.m. Most of that came just after midnight.

The east side got good and wet yesterday, with less rain on the west side.

This morning we have a 60 percent of tropical development on our low pressure system that this morning is about halfway between Nicaragua and Colombia. The watch box is a little further east.

Our satellite and radar shows showers and thunderstorms to our east-northeast and moving northwest.

I think we have a good chance of missing the worst of it this morning, with a 50 percent chance of a shower. Rain chances increase tonight to 60 percent. Tomorrow and Wednesday still look rainier, as the low pressure system comes close to the Mosquito Coast and throws some rain our way. Most models still show 3-4 inches through Wednesday. Rain lingers into Thursday morning, but then our weather takes a turn for the better. A norther comes through, and we will have a few isolated showers, but much less rain than we normally get with a norther. If the tropical storm gets stronger out in the Caribbean, it could bring some dry, cool air over us for the weekend and next Monday. Have a great week!

We wake up to partly cloudy skies, east winds 10 mph and seas 2-3 feet. On satellite it looks like north side Guanaja may be getting a shower at 7 a.m.

No rain overnight!

Our potential Tropical Storm Vince is well south, bringing rain to Panama and Colombia.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of it becoming a tropical depression to 50 percent, but still none of the models show it coming over us. The GFS still shows it nearing the Mosquito Coast around Wednesday, while most other models keep it further south and slow its development until Friday.

That is an important day, because that is the day a cold front arrives and brings us north winds and fresher weather and LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN, especially Sunday and Monday, which may be some of the nicest days you’ll ever experience on Roatan.

For now, most of today should continue partly cloudy to mostly sunny with only isolated showers. Chances increase this evening and tonight. Tomorrow we will have a 50 percent chance of showers, Tuesday 60 percent and Wednesday 70 percent. Most of the models are trending down in total rainfall through Wednesday. On the low end, GFS is only predicting an inch and a half from now through Wednesday. On the high end, the ICON is predicting about 4 inches. If course any rain will continue to delay the drying of our roads, which are in a pretty bad state.

Winds today will be from the east 10-15 mph and seas 3 feet. Winds will be quite calm Monday and Tuesday, but seas will continue to be 2-3 feet because of swell, caused by winds elsewhere in the Caribbean. Seas will get worse later in the week if an when the storm gets close to the Mosquito Coast before moving east to Jamaica. A cold front is actually expected to pass through Friday, perhaps giving us showers Friday, but giving us a nice weekend, with light air, north winds and cool temps. Have a great Sunday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Here is the satellite image of a thundershower were dealing with here on the east side.

The rain is moving to the west-northwest.

These are rain totals as of 6:55 a.m.

We’ll be dealing with frequent showers through the morning. Rain should become less this afternoon through tomorrow morning and increase tomorrow afternoon. Monday through Wednesday still have the potential for heavy rain, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Most of the models show some sort of tropical disturbance forming off the Mosquito Coast, but the center of the storm has almost no chance of coming this way. It will eventually move northeast, giving us lower rain chances the end of next week. I am very excited that we might have a dry and fresh weekend, with sunny skies and temperatures only around 80 degrees.

Here’s our video forecast for today, in which I talk about the potential for Tropical Storm Vince and why we really want him to form. Also, nice weather next weekend.

Good morning Bay Islands. Here is today’s video forecast.

We’re dealing with a storm to our east that may bring us a shower or thundershower through the morning. These storms tend to weaken as the morning goes along, so I think our afternoon will be nice.

The National Hurricane Center has issued a watch area for a tropical system, but only gives it a 20 percent chance through 7 days. So very low likelihood of a tropical storm.

For tomorrow we will have a 50/50 chance of scattered showers. Rain Monday through Wednesday looks heavier as a low pressure or tropical system forms to our east, but by Wednesday it should be caught by a cold front and move quickly east, so the chances of us being directly affected by a tropical storm are very low. Have a great Friday!

Short story:

Nice today and most of tomorrow. Mild winds and seas through Saturday.

Chance of rain this weekend is 50/50, but probably only 1-2 inches of rain.

Next week’s forecast depends on how our low pressure/potential tropical storm forms. If it forms, it may actually mean less rain for us, as the tropical storm draws moisture away. If it doesn’t, we may be dealing with periods of heavy rain early next week, but right now it looks like only 2-4 additional inches. Have a great Thursday!

Nov. 8, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands, short story:

Light rain possible through noon, then some peeks of sun.

Nice tomorrow and most of Friday. Seas 3-4 feet today, 2 feet tomorrow, 1-2 feet for the weekend.

Rain chances return for the weekend and possible heavy rain Monday and Tuesday. GFS wants to create a tropical storm to our east, which would bring us rain early in the week, but if it moved north like the model shows, it would actually bring us drier air for the end of next week and the weekend. Most models simply show rain early to midweek next week.

Also a shoutout to our first business sponsor, Rosita’s Meat Market in French Harbor and Coxen Hole. Thanks for your support. If your business would like to support our forecasts, please contact me personally or go to patreon.com/roatanweather. Have a great Wednesday!

Good soggy morning Bay Islands. The highlights: Scattered showers today, tonight and tomorrow morning. Wednesday midday and Thursday we dry out. Friday small rain chances return. Better rain chances this weekend and possible heavy rain early next week. Right now the GFS is trying to create a tropical storm for next week, but most models say no and the GFS has a history of exagerrating things.