December 22, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. This morning’s photo of the day is of the ghost ship near the ferry terminals on the north side midisland taken by Mercy Salinas. Today is going to be a bit dark and dreary just like this old ship.

Speaking of dark, last night was the longest night of the year, with 12 hours and 51 minutes of night, compared to 11 hours 9 minutes of day. This is also known as the winter solstice. The nights are not nearly as long as in North America, but you definitely notice when sunrise isn’t until 6:09 a.m. The sunrise helps me see exactly where the clouds are and what to look for in the day’s forecast, so it makes it harder to forecast early when the sun isn’t up. I’m definitely looking forward to longer days. As you can see in the satellite, the sun rose to show us lots of clouds around. Those clouds will stick around all day, with off and on steady rain showers and between half an inch to an inch. The chance of showers continues into tomorrow, though I think tomorrow, especially the afternoon, will be less rainy than today.

Plenty of rain has already fallen this morning, though Utila has missed out so far.

I know I’ve been promising a good holiday weekend, and it will eventually get here. Sunday and Monday look quite nice. Saturday probably won’t be too bad either, though there is a decent chance of rain, especially in the morning. But Sunday and Monday we will have mostly sunny skies with light and variable winds.

The cam at West Bay Beach continues to show waves as 4 foot seas coming from the northeast continue. We start the day with west winds 10-15 mph, but those winds should calm today into the weekend. However, our seas will stay around 3 feet through Monday. As we get into the middle of next week, we’ll start seeing calmer seas at 1-2 feet.

Everyone always asks how hot is it this time of year and how much rain do we get? Find out by ordering your 2024 Roatan Weather Calendar. Message me or Whatsapp me at 94754406 for more details. Only $14.95.

The tide will be quite low around midnight. Have a great Friday!

December 21, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Patti Bombace Yelinek taken from the shore at West Bay of rays of sun surrounding a cruise ship. It is a nice reminder that if you’re in North America planning a cruise, don’t forget to check out Jolly Roger Roatan for your safe and fun-filled shore excursion!

We’re in the low 70s, but many of us got to 69. Most of us were 1 or 2 degrees warmer this morning than yesterday morning. Sadly, that trend will continue as we start getting back to more normal temperatures for this time of year, but still very comfortable. Our lows this time of year are normally around 73 and highs around 82.

A few of us saw some showers this morning, up to a quarter of an inch in West Bay and Utila. Here on Jonesville Point we saw an additional quarter of an inch last night before midnight.

Much of the rain is to our west, but not all showers get picked up by radar. We will have a 30 percent chance of a shower throughout the day. The chance goes up to 50 percent overnight. Tomorrow we will be mostly cloudy with scattered showers. The showers should be light, with around half an inch forecast for most of us. Showers last through Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon into the rest of the holiday weekend looks great, with a very low chance of an isolated shower through Christmas Day.

Seas this morning are from the northeast at 3-4 feet. Winds will remain light and variable, but swell (waves from winds elsewhere) will push seas to 5 feet for Guanaja, 4 feet for Roatan and 3 feet for Utila tomorrow. Seas will be back to 3 feet for the weekend and perhaps 2 feet for Christmas Day.

For our long-range forecast, a norther is coming next week, but there is some disagreement as to when. The GFS says Tuesday and Wednesday, while most other models say Wednesday evening through Friday morning. In any case, it looks like a pretty mild norther, with north winds 10-15 mph, seas 3-4 feet and moderate rain. A stronger norther may be coming around Jan. 2. We’ll keep an eye on it.

We’ve already gotten several order for the Roatan Weather Calendar, complete with moon phases, rainfall averages and average temperatures on the island. Let me know if you want me to reserve one for you!

Tide will be quite low at 11:20 p.m. Have a great Thursday!

December 20, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Joyann Villalta in Calabash Bight. I chose Joyann’s lovely sunrise because today’s lovely sunrise came with sweater weather.

I thought we might see some 69’s for lows today, but I was a little off. Calabash got down to 67 (19C), just one degree from our all-time record low set in February 2020. Many of us got down to 69. I only have one temp from Utila because two of the weather stations out there record rainfall but not temperature.

A few of us saw showers early this morning.

We have quite a bit of clouds and a few showers moving from north to south on our satellite at 7:30 this morning. We’ll stay partly to mostly cloudy through the morning with a decent chance of light showers. Chances are a little better for Utila, where the chance sticks around for the afternoon.

We start the day with north winds at 15 mph and seas around 4 feet. Those winds will become light and variable during the day, and seas will calm to 3 feet on the north side. Winds will remain fairly calm into next week, but seas will stay up around 4 feet for most of the time period because of winds to our northeast. This is a wave map for midday Thursday and you can see probably 5 foot seas for Guanaja, 4 foot for the big island and 2-3 for Utila. Those numbers will last into the holiday weekend.

We continue to have cool days today and tomorrow. Some of us might not see 80 (27C). Tomorrow morning we’ll have a small rain chance. Friday into Saturday morning we’ll have a better rain chance, perhaps 50 percent. After that the holiday weekend looks dry. We’re still watching a possible norther for New Year’s Eve.

Big thanks to Executive Chef Robbie Molina and Melissa Dixon and the crew at Ikigai for showing my wife and our friends what great island fusion cuisine can be. Congrats to Robbie for being named one of the top 100 chefs in the world, and right here in Roatan! If you want a world-class experience, come to Ikigai in French Harbour.

Big thanks to Executive Chef Robbie Molina and Melissa Dixon and the crew at Ikigai for showing my wife and our friends what great island fusion cuisine can be. Congrats to Robbie for being named one of the top 100 chefs in the world, and right here in Roatan! If you want a world-class experience, come to Ikigai in French Harbour.

Dec. 17, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Julie Elpus at the tip of West Bay where the north side of the island meets the south side. You can definitely see the winds we had and the white caps. We are still dealing with seas 4-5 feet on the north side, a little calmer on the south side. That’s the great thing about this island. When it’s rough on one side you can go to the other side for diving and snorkeling.

On satellite we can clearly see the monster storm that brought us those strong winds. It is what we in North America call a “Nor’easter” It will be a machine that will continue to bring us relatively strong winds, around 15-20 mph from the north/northwest, today and tomorrow. That will keep our seas up to around 5 feet, especially on the north side. As we get into Wednesday and Thursday, our winds will calm quite a bit, to 5-10 mph, on Wednesday from the northeast, on Thursday from the west. Our seas will be around 3 feet, especially on the north side, mainly because of swell (winds causing waves out at seas that travel down here).

On our close-up satellite we can see some “popcorn” clouds to our northeast. Rain chances today and tomorrow will be fairly low, around 30 percent. Chances go up Wednesday and Thursday to around 50 percent, but rain intensity should be light and rain totals should be low. Especially Wednesday and Thursday we may get periods of half an hour with a light steady rain. But the big story here is we will stay fresh through the week. All those north winds will keep our temperatures mostly in the 70s (24-26C), around 80 (27C) when the sun comes out. That is quite cool for us around here. Tomorrow morning and Wednesday morning we might see a 69 here or there (20.5C)

The holiday weekend looks pretty nice. Best chance of rain will be Saturday, with very low chances for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Seas will be from the northeast 3-4 feet Saturday, calming to 2 feet Sunday and Monday. I know many of you will be purchasing meat for holiday dinners. Don’t forget to head down to Rosita’s in Coxen Hole and French Harbor for the best quality meat at the best price.

Low tides are 7:30 a.m. and 8:30 p.m. Have a great week!

December 16, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Naomi Jackson and was taken in Utila. I’m glad to include Utila in my pictures of the day, an island that has a special place in the heart of divers around the world.

Speaking of Utila they got a nice shower between 4-5 a.m. this morning as did the west side of the big island.

On our radar you can see the rain is moving from west the east, the opposite of how rain usually moves around here. Throughout the day we will have a chance of showers, but these showers will come and go and we will also have periods of sun.

The big story is going to be the winds with this norther. You can see a big storm gearing up in the northern Gulf of Mexico and it will drag a cold front behind it. Winds will increase throughout today and turn to the northwest at 15-20 mph and seas around 4 feet. Tonight into tomorrow morning we will see northwest winds gusting to 30 mph and perhaps even higher with seas 6-7 feet. Tomorrow afternoon winds should calm back down to 17-22 mph and seas down to 4-5 feet. There may be some storms right along the front as it passes tonight into tomorrow morning, but tomorrow shouldn’t be an all-day rain.

The big story of next week will be the fresh temperatures. Low temperatures in San Pedro Sula on the mainland are forecast to be around 60 degress (15C). The sea always keeps our temps a little warmer than the mainland, but I would not be surprised to see a 70 or 69 (21F) on Tuesday or Wednesday morning. What showers we have next week should be light. Toward the end of the week seas will calm and things should get dryer, so the holiday weekend looks like picture perfect island weather.

Don’t forget to order your 2024 Roatan Weather Calendar. I have the price at $19.95 but I’m trying to get it lower depending on the printing cost. Message me or text me at 94754406.

Low tides will be around 6 p.m. and 6 a.m. Have a great weekend.

December 15, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day is a familiar sight to all of us — cruise ships in Coxen Hole port. Dave Elmore took this photo from Plaza Mar, you know, the place with the immigration office but also that wonderful souvenir shop on the second floor. Keep the weather photos coming and thanks so much!

No rainfall this morning since midnight on the big island, but Utila got some rain after midnight. A lot of us got some rain before midnight, so I’m including yesterday in this morning’s rain totals.

There are just a few “popcorn” clouds on our satellite, so a passing shower is possible today, but we should be mostly sunny for most of today. Clouds increase and rain chances go up tonight into tomorrow as our cold front approaches. Winds Saturday will be from the west 15-20 and seas around 4 feet.

Sunday morning will be very windy from the northwest with winds perhaps as high as 30 mph and seas 6-7 feet. As the day goes on, things should calm a bit. There is surprisingly little rain in the forecast for a norther, because this one is supposed to sweep through so fast and actually bring in drier air behind it. But when colder air comes, we sometimes get a chilly, light rain, so I doubt Sunday and Monday will be completely dry.

One of the big stories next week is how fresh the air will feel. This map shows the difference between average temperature and forecast temp. Yellow is above average and blue is below average. Look at how blue we are next week according to the Euro model. I imagine when the sun comes out we will be around 80 or 81 (26-27C) but under clouds we will stick in the upper 70s. (25C). Enjoy! Things look pretty dry going into next (holiday) weekend as well.

I understand the boat parade has been moved to Wednesday night. Winds should be mild and the rain chance is quite low, but seas will be 4 feet and because they are from the northeast, those waves will run along the south side of the island as well, perhaps 3-4 feet outside the reef.

https://www.lulu.com/shop/michael-andrews/roatan-weather-calendar/paperback/product-zmmr5n5.html?page=1&pageSize=4
Oak Ridge area of Roatan Island, Honduras at sunrise. Oak Ridge is known as the Venice of the Caribbean.

For those in the US and Canada you can order your 2024 Roatan Weather Calendar at this link. If you’re interested in getting one on the island (I’m hoping to keep the price at $19.95 depending on cost of printing here) please text me at 94754406.

Low tides are 5 p.m. and 5 a.m. Have a great Friday!

Special marine forecast for Sunday evening Dec. 17, 2023

Special forecast for Boat Parade for Sunday evening: I have received a request to do a special wind and wave forcast for a parade of boats that is scheduled for Sunday evening starting at 5 p.m. on the southeast side of the island (Jonesville, Calabash, Port Royal area). I know that Sunday is the day that there is a norther coming and there’s a lot of concern about how the waves will be for the parade. There are two things working in the favor of the parade.
1. The winds are supposed to be at their windiest Sunday morning.
2. The parade is on the south side inside the reef, the most protected area of the island in a norther.
A lot of our recent northers have been from the northeast which has meant more waves on the south side. But this one should be from the NORTHWEST, which offers more protection on the south side.
I am posting the wave map from PredictWind for 5:40 p.m. Sunday. The blues on the north side indicated waves 4-5 feet. The purples on the south side of the island indicate the wraparound waves we’ll receive on the southside, generally 2-3 feet. On top of that the wave maps don’t adequately reflect the protection the reef provides from waves, so for the period from 5-8 p.m. when the parade is scheduled, we’re probably talking about 1-2 foot waves inside the reef and 2-3 feet outside. Of course, the winds are calming as the evening goes on, so 5 p.m. will be the waviest and 8 p.m. the calmest. These forecasts get better as we get closer to the event, so we’ll keep our eyes on any changes as we get closer to the event. As always please wear your lifejacket just to be on the safe side.

December 14, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Helen Murphy who has lived on the island since 1986! This was taken from the First Bight area, which is where the municipalities of Roatan and Santos Guardiola meet, the dividing line of east and west Roatan.

We’ve had some good morning showers across the islands with over an inch and a half near Pristine Bay.

The satellite looks better today than it has previous days, with only scattered showers, mostly of the “popcorn” variety. We should see plenty of sun, but there will continue to be chances of showers, but rain totals shouldn’t be high today. Tomorrow should be very similar to today as well. Winds will be light and variable but we will continue to have seas around 3 feet. Rain chances go up Saturday as our next norther approaches.

The main effect of our norther will be the winds. Winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph on Saturday and seas at 4 feet. Sunday morning winds will be from the northwest at 22-30 mph and seas 5-7 feet especially on the north side. Winds and seas should calm slightly Sunday afternoon. Rain Sunday into the first part of next week will be light as the cooler air pushes moisture out of the clouds, but rain totals should not be very high. Into the first and middle part of next week we will feel very pleasant conditions and a lot of islanders and those of us who have lived here long enough will want to wear their jackets.

Low tide is 4:08 p.m. Lowest tide is tomorrow at 4 a.m. Have a great Thursday.

December 13, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Paiz Sloane at Mangrove Bight in Guanaja. I love being able to include Guanaja here because all the islands are part of our effort to keep the Bay Islands safe and informed. Paiz is bringing down a new weather station which will be our first one on Guanaja. Thanks so much!!!

We have been dealing with some showers and a few rumbles of thunder this morning. From now until Saturday we will be dealing with scattered showers, but we will be seeing a bit more sun today through Saturday than we did yesterday.

Rain will be possible throughout the day, but more likely in the mornings and late evenings. Middays give us the best shot of sunshine.

The wind forecast is still a little tricky because we are still in an area of variable winds, but they will generally be lighter (7-15 mph) and more and more from the west. But some areas could experience occasional gusty winds, especially near squalls. Seas will start to calm from the current 4-5 feet to 3-4 feet.

Winds pick up on Saturday and especially Sunday as a norther passes through, bringing northwest winds 25-30 mph (perhaps up to 40 mph in Guanaja) and seas 5-6 feet especially on the north and west sides. The models are moving this front through so quickly that there isn’t as much rain as you would expect from a norther. We’ll keep an eye on it. After the norther moves through we will have quite cool conditions with highs perhaps only in the 70s.

As you can see on the forecast map, after the norther moves through, things look pretty clear behind it for much of next week. The forecast as we get toward Christmas Day actually looks pretty nice.

Low tide is 3:17 p.m. Lowest tide is 3:07 a.m. under a dark sky with no moon. Have a great Wednesday!

Dec. 12, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Phil Sikora and it shows a rainy sky at Carib Bight, just below Juticalpa. I chose it today because it is how our norther has been: A lot of clouds, a little blue sky here and there and some rain.

Looks like so far the far west side of Roatan has been the driest with only about an inch of rain, about 2 inches Sandy Bay 2-3 inches Utila and 3-4 inches on the east end.

We’ve been very fortunate because a lot of rain overnight fell to our north. I would imagine if we could measure rain in the open sea we’d see some totals around 8 inches.

On satellite we can see the dense rain clouds to our north. We’re seeing a few breaks in the clouds this morning over the islands.

Our wind forecast for today and tomorrow will be very tricky because it looks like a small low pressure system is forming just to our north. The arrows here show the predicted wind direction at 5 p.m. today in the Euro model. It shows Utila getting a strong westerly breeze but Guanaja getting a mild southeast breeze. Most of the models and trying to give us westerly winds, perhaps gusty at times, later today into tonight and tomorrow. That would mean wavy conditions at West End which is usually calm. The wind models are all over the place on wave height and direction so I would urge boaters to be very careful and notice your local conditions, because they will be different from east to west across our islands and can change quickly the next couple of days. Starting Thursday most models agree we will have westerly winds into the weekend. We are looking for another norther on Sunday that may bring strong northwest winds.

As far as rain goes, we will have periods of rain today and probably another 1-2 inches for most folks. Starting tomorrow the rain will be more scattered. There’s a good chance of seeing a shower each day through Saturday, but also periods of sun and clouds. The norther on Sunday looks like it should be more wind than rain. We’ll keep an eye on it.

Low tide is 2:30 p.m. Lowest tide is 2:20 a.m. Have a great Tuesday!