Why is it hotter in Roatan than my weather app says?

I get occasional questions about the temperature forecast. I generally don’t do a temp forecast because the temperature is generally the same, with the exception of a few days each year where we have northers. But one thing that has an impact on how hot it is where you are, is whether you are on the sea getting a sea breeze or if you are inland. Let’s take a look at the only weather station I can find that’s a bit inland. It’s call West Bay Hills, on the road between West Bay and West End (if this is your station, please send me a message so I can have your contact info). Let’s see how its temps for yesterday’s high compared to a nearby station on the sea.

Yesterday’s high temperature there was 91.5 degrees (33C). This is higher than the majority of weather stations on the island because it is not right on the sea, as is every other weather station we have.

That high temperature in combination with the humidity (it is pretty much always this humid on the island) give us a heat index at a whopping 106 (41C). Somebody give me a towel.

Let’s take a look at the high temperature yesterday at a location called Keyhole Bay Wrightwood (if this is your station, please contact me so I can get your contact info.) It is right on the sea, picking up a nice seabreeze. Let’s see what effect that has on its temps.

Yesterday’s high in West Bay came in at 86.7 F (30.4C). That’s a good five degrees cooler than our inland weather station about a mile away. The difference is caused by the cooling effect of a wind coming off the sea. Evaporating water cools the air.

In combination with our humidity, the weather station on the sea in West Bay gives us a heat index of 97 (36C). That’s very hot, but not as hot as the inland weather station.

Lots of visitors look at these weather apps for an indication of temperatures. This one is The Weather Channel and it is pretty close on its forecast for lows. We will probably be around 79-80 (26C) for lows, but it is quite low on the forecast highs. We will probably be 87 (on the water) to 91 (inland) for highs (30-33C). This is pretty common on these weather apps. They also get the temperature wrong in the winter when we have northers. A few degrees can make a big difference.

April 18, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Handford McLaughlin at Camp Bay Beach. Handford has been a great help getting our congregation over to Helene in his safe, sturdy, speedy boat. Look him up at Handfordtours.com.

On our satellite this morning there are a very few popcorn clouds, including one over part of Guanaja at 7 a.m. I guess it’s possible for a small shower, but chances are like 3 percent. We will continue to have 15 mph daytime east winds and 20 mph nighttime east winds and seas 3 feet on the southside and dry conditions into the weekend.

Who needs Taco Tuesday when you can have Taco Thursday during Happy Hour 4-7 p.m. at Ikigai by Robby Molina in French Harbor? $2 tacos and great deals on adult beverages.

Low tides are midnight and noon. Have a great Thursday!

El Niño/La Niña effect on the Bay Islands Part 1

Now that our boring forecast is out of the way, let’s talk about what the months ahead are going to be like. Let’s start with what our weather is normally. If you check out my Q&A here at https://roatanweather.org/frequently-asked-questions-about-roatans-weather/ you’ll learn that I usually don’t do temperature forecasts, because temperature here is almost always the same, especially in the period April-early October. If it isn’t really hot, it’s because it is cloudy and/or very windy. If the wind is calm and it’s sunny, you’re going to be sweating and wanting to jump in the ocean. By that measure, our hottest months are usually May and September, times when we have very little cloud cover and calmer winds (esp. September). June-August is not quite so hot, because we get a few more waves of moisture from our east giving us showers, especially in the mornings. In 2023, we had one of the hottest, driest summers in memory. Our sea temperature got up to 90 degrees (32C) and resulted in coral bleaching. Some people say this is because of our strong El Niño combined with global warming. So, what does this summer hold for us?

According to the US weather service NOAA, forecasters estimate an 85% chance that El Niño will end and the tropical Pacific will transition to neutral conditions by the April–June period. There’s a 60% chance that La Niña will develop by June–August. El Niño is caused by warmer than normal waters in the eastern Pacific. La Niña is caused by cooler than normal waters in the easter Pacific. What does that mean for us? As far as I can tell, not much, at least for our day-to-day weather. I went back through 25 years of rainfall statistics and could find no correlation between El Niño/La Niña years and how much precipitation we got.

And as this chart shows, a strong El Niño or La Niña doesn’t seem to have much effect on our sea temperatures here in the Western Caribbean. This means that the effects on us have more to do with global trends. Are water temps higher globally? Is there less wind shear, and therefore strong hurricanes in the Atlantic making their way here? We will talk about that later in the week.

April 17, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Today’s photo comes from Debbie Shortlegs R and is taken from the Pink Seahorse on the south side of West End. The sunset is coming through a bit of palm origami that, to me, looks like a hummingbird. Great artistry. If you want a chance at a $50 gift certificate at Blue Bahia Beach Grill send me your photo with name and location to bookmybio@gmail.com.

Let’s start with our satellite at 7:20 a.m. We have a line of popcorn clouds moving toward the northwest It’s not impossible that someone on the west side or Utila might see a very brief shower out of this, but it won’t amount to much. We will have mostly sunny skies, highs near 90 (32C), east winds 15-20 mph and seas 2-3 feet mostly on the south side the rest of this week. I told you the weather this week was going to be boring!

Boring weather is great if you are scheduled to visit our islands, either by plane or cruise ship. Be sure to check out Jolly Roger Roatan to make the most of our sunny skies and mild winds with a great day on the sea, topped off by lunch and an open bar.

Low tides are 11:30 a.m. and 11:30 p.m. Have a great Wednesday!

April 16, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Sandy Soboy, taken on a weekend trip she took to Guanaja on a trip on Galaxy Wave. The Galaxy Wave ferry to Guanaja is a great opportunity for residents of Roatan and Utila to visit the farthest island. I’ve met so many island natives who have never been there. You owe it to yourself to take the trip at least once! A very nice week is in store.

On satellite this morning we see a few popcorn clouds, especially between Roatan and Utila. These clouds are moving southwest. There is a small chance for a shower this morning, especially for Utila, but it won’t amount to much if anything. This week looks pretty dry with only a very slight chance of a shower overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Next decent chance of rain is in about 10 days, but that is just moisture coming in off the Caribbean to our east. We are done with northers until October.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Today we have east winds around 15 mph and seas aruond 3 feet, especially on the southside. Winds will increast to 20 mph this afternoon and evening with seas 3-4 feet southside. Tomorrow winds will be 15-20 mph from the east, turning to the northeast in the afternoon, so the northside will get a bit wavier tomorrow afternoon. The rest of the week looks much the same. The weather is really starting to turn boring, so I’m going to be doing some long-range forecasting and looking at what La Nina means for our weather and hurricane season a few months out.

Here’s the Guanaja schedule on Galaxy Wave so you can visit the Bay Islands’ hidden gem!

Low tides are 11 a.m. and 11 p.m. Have a great Tuesday!

April 14, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Brandon Matz in Sandy Bay and shows a kid (what the locals would call a cipote) doing a wheelie on the beach at sunset. The beach is right in front of Blue Bahia Beach Grill and maybe Brandon will get a $50 meal there if he wins this month’s photo contest. Very small chances of rain will lead into a very dry week ahead.

In our satellite this morning you can see a few popcorn clouds (cumulus) to our north and even more to our south. Unfortunately for us, we are in the dry middle and these clouds are moving toward the southwest. I imagine the Cayos Cochinos are getting some nice showers this morning. There is a small chance for us on the Bay Islands this morning, but this afternoon should be mostly sunny. Another small chance will happen tomorrow morning, and maybe a 10 percent chance overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning, but after that we are dry as a bone.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day winds fairly light at 10 mph from the north/northeast, but waves are 3-4 feet on the north side. This afternoon winds will pick up to 20 mph from the northeast, keeping our seas around 4 feet north side. Tomorrow we will have another day of light morning winds and winds in the afternoon 15-20 mph from the northeast, with seas 2-3 feet north side. Tuesday through the rest of the week we will have easterly trade winds, but only around 20 mph, so seas should stay around 3-4 feet, mostly on the south side. We won’t have those 30 mph overnight winds we’ve had previous weeks.

Today is $18 Lobster Special day at Ikigai by Robby Molina in French Harbor. This is a good deal by itself, but the fact that it includes a complimentary adult beverage makes it a great deal.

 Low tides are 9:30 a.m. and 9:30 p.m. Have a great Sunday!

April 13, 2024

Rain, glorious rain. Our photo of the day comes from Paula Chamernick in Guaiabara Beach Big Bight. The chances of rain finally broke through overnight and into this morning. Sadly, from here the chances of rain go down, but will be around through Monday morning.

On satellite we can see lots of popcorn clouds around, so there will be a chance of rain showers today, especially this morning. But we will have partly cloudy skies with periods of sun. Where there are rain and clouds it will be a tad cooler, but when you get in the sun, it will still be muggy and hot. We will have chances of rain tonight into Sunday morning and Sunday night into Monday morning. Sunday and Monday afternoon should be dry and mostly sunny.

Here are the numbers you are all interested in. West Bay was the big winner with an inch and a quarter. Most of the rest of us got between a third and three quarters of an inch.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with with north winds at 5 mph and seas only at two feet. Those conditions will last most of the day. This evening winds will pick up to 15 mph from the northeast and seas will pick up to 3 feet. Those conditions will continue through tomorrow. Next week we will have easterly trade winds, but not as bad as in recent weeks. Winds will be mostly 15 mph during the day and 20 mph at night and 3-4 foot seas, mostly on the south side.

High tides are pretty low and lowest tide will be 8:15 mph. Have a great weekend!

April 12, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Today’s photo comes from Debbie Robertson in Punta Gorda. It is appropriate because today is the celebration of the 227th anniversary of the Garifuna landing in Punta Gorda. There will be a small chance of a shower today, but mostly things should be OK, with fairly calm winds.

Want to see a sad video? Last night there was a nice-looking line of thundershowers entering the Caribbean and northern Belize and I had hopes we might have a round of morning showers, but you can see how these storms disappear this morning.

On satellite this morning we can see a very weak frontal boundary with some popcorn clouds behind it. This is drifting very slowly southeast. I sincerely hope some of these clouds make it our way, but it’s not a sure thing. We will have a 30 percent chance of rain through Sunday. I know folks in Punta Gorda don’t want a lot of rain today, but I think even they would welcome a little rain.

Saturday night is Steak Night at Ikigai by Robby Molina, and there is no more tender, juicy steak than the one put on the grill by our island’s top chef.

We have mostly light westerly winds, especially Utila and the west side of Roatan, due to a very small low pressure system to our northwest. We will have light and variable winds today but this evening we will switch back to light northeasterly winds. Tomorrow, because of winds to our north, we will have a little bit of surf on the north side, 2-3 feet. On Sunday we will have northeast winds 15 mph and seas around 3 feet northside.

Lowest tide is around 7 p.m. Have a great Friday and hope to see you in Punta Gorda.

April 11, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Janie Bard in West Bay. If you would like to submit a photo and a chance at a $50 credit at Blue Bahia Beach Grill, please email your photo to bookmybio@gmail.com along with name and location or WhatsApp it to 9475-4406. The reason I ask you not to send it Messenger is because for some reason Mark Zuckerberg takes all the resolution out of the photo.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Let’s start with this morning’s winds. The buoys on the north side of Utila are showing 20 mph west winds, while the buoys on the south side of Roatan are still showing strong east winds. This forecast map is for noon today, and shows the westerly winds moving into the west side of Roatan. After noon the forecast is for the winds to shift back slightly to the east, but this will be a day where the further west you are the more likely you are to have west winds and the further east, the more likely to have easterlies.

By noon tomorrow, westerlies are hanging on in Utila, but many of us will have calmer winds, with some northeasterlies around 15 mph especially for the northeast side of Roatan and Guanaja.

By noon Saturday we’re all back to easterly winds, but only about 15 mph.

Rain forecast: On satellite you can see the cold front strongly apparent over Florida, but not so easy to see as you go southwest. But it is the reason our winds are changing today. We will see an increase in clouds today, but only a 10 percent chance of any sort of shower. For the period from tomorrow morning through Monday morning, we will have a 40 percent chance of rain, mostly overnight and in the mornings. It’s not a sure thing, but let’s hope some of us get a little relief from this drought.

Last night I had spaghetti with ground beef from Carniceria Rosita and was reminded just how lean and tasty their beef is. Most other places will have soy or other fillers that mess up the texture of the meat, but Rosita’s is just pure, tasty beef.

Low tide is 5:30 p.m. Have a great Thursday!

April 10, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands! This morning’s photo is from Mel James at Guanaja’s West End. Gorgeous blue skies though we’ve been a little hazy recently. Give Mel’s photo a “like” to get it into the contest April 30 for a $50 gift certificate to Blue Bahia Beach Grill. I got a 40 mph wind gust on Jonesville Point last night. One more day of east winds before we get our very weak cold front.

Today we will have 20 mph east winds, getting back up to 30 mph this evening, with seas 4-5 feet on the south side. Tomorrow morning into midday we will have a period of westerly winds, especially for Utila and the west side of Roatan. East side and Guanaja, will have light east winds until closer to midday, when we pick up some west winds as well. Those west winds will be around 15 mph with seas around 3 feet north and west sides. Thursday evening through Sunday morning we will have a chance of rain. It’s not a big chance, maybe 40 percent for the whole period. Just hope you get a quick downpour. Highest chance will be Friday night into Saturday morning.

We keep saying maybe the next cold front will be the last. They get weaker and weaker each time. I think this one may be the last one for real. The extended forecast on the GFS doesn’t show any more cold front getting anywhere close to the Caribbean. After this, our only hope for any sort of shower comes from waves of moisture coming from our east. This is probably also the last time we have to worry about westerly winds for awhile. Easterly trades should dominate the rest of April into May.

Our photo of the day is a great reminder that Guanaja is a great place to visit. I will be over there the first part of May. I’m hoping to get some diving in. If you have a dive shop on Guanaja and have an extra seat on a boat at a reasonable price let me know.

Lowest tide is 4:20 p.m. Have a great Wednesday!