May 19, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. I choose to call this photo sunrise over Reco. It was taken in Jonesville Point by Milena Štefaniková. I don’t know about you, but my Reco has been flickering off and on quite a bit lately. Maybe it is the effect of the wind. If so, that should calm a bit over the next couple of days. It is also quite smoky today.

We start as we usually do, with a look at our satellite. We can again see our smoke plume overhead and quite a bit of cloudiness to our west. It seems that the mainland was dry last night and we are dealing with the smoke, perhaps even worse than previous days.

The 7 a.m. report at the airport said that flight conditions were BCAT1, meaning “below category 1”. Even if they had the best instrument landing system available, those aren’t good conditions for flying. Visibility is only 800 meters. At 7:30 a.m. the Agencia Hondureña de Aeronáutica Civil – AHAC has not announced closures yet, but I don’t see how the airport can be open in these conditions. Again, like previous days, hopefully things get clearer in the afternoon and the North American flights can land.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to east/southeast winds 20 mph and seas 4-5 feet southside. We should see a bit of a calmdown today, with winds midday 10-15 mph and seas 3-4 feet. Tonight we will get back to 20-25 mph and seas 4-5 feet but tomorrow, winds will be 10-15 mph and seas 2-3 feet. We are still hoping to see winds coming a little more due east over the course of this week instead of from the southeast, thereby decreasing our smoke.

The GFS forecast is not only trying to forecast some rain for the end of May/beginning of June, it is also forecasting a tropical cyclone. I imagine someone will put out a scary post saying we’re about to have a hurricane in Roatan. Don’t believe it. The GFS is famous for forecasting tropical storms in the extended forecast. These storms rarely develop and it would be quite unusual for one to form this time of year. That said, I sincerely hope they are correct about the chances of rain.

On the bright side, the Euro also agree that as we get to the end of May, we will have more moisture in the upper atmosphere and, therefore, a better chance at showers. The moist air is represented by yellows and reds, the dry by green and blue.

Don’t forget that today is Lobster Sunday at Ikigai by Robby Molina. It’s a deal you can’t beat, with a cocktail to go with it.

Low tide is around noon. Have a great Sunday!

May 18, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day was taken by Dawn Schoenherr at Blue Bahia Beach Grill, and if she gets enough likes she could get $50 toward more meals and great pictures there. Don’t forget to send your photo to bookmybio@gmail.com with name and location. We start the day with poor visibility and a little hope that things are slowly getting better.

On our satellite we can still see the smoke plume over us, but we also see a few more clouds over the mainland. It seems that some locations near San Pedro Sula got a little rain. More rain on the mainland means fewer fires and less smoke. As we get into next week, while there is no rain in our forecast, the mainland may get a little, which will help.

I mentioned last night that our visibility had gotten back to 10 km (the maximum) last night for the first time in about a week. We are back down to 4000 meters this morning, which is close to the trigger for closing the airport. We will see what happens soon (it seems like a decision is made around 7:20 a.m. daily). The past few days the closing has only been for a couple of hours in the morning and has mostly delayed the morning flights from the mainland. Let’s hope that continues.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Today we wake to 20 mph east/southeast winds and seas 4-5 feet. We will stay right around there today and tonight we will again get windier, to 25-30 mph winds and seas 5-6 feet south side, but starting tomorrow we will get calmer. Sunday with east winds 10-15 mph during the day and seas around 3 feet and around 20 mph at night. Utila will even pick up some westerly and northerly breezes. Monday and Tuesday look like days when midday we will be fairly calm.

While we are still dealing with smoke, there is hope on the horizon. Whatever San Pedro Sula got last night in rain got their Air Quality Index to improve to 80. It was nearly 200 earlier in the week.

We aren’t getting very cool overnight. A lot of that has to do with the smoke and clouds keeping the heat in. Most of us are only getting down to 85 (29.4C) overnight. On the bright side, the airport only gave us a high of 89 (31.7C) because that same haze is keeping the solar rays down.

I hate to put too much hope in a long-range forecast, but the GFS is trying to give us a pattern change with more rain starting at the end of May into the first of June.

This coming Tuesday looks like a lower wind day. Tuesday is also a big cruise day. If you are planning your shore leave from your cruise, ask about booking with Jolly Roger Roatan. They get you to a great excursion on a comfy catamaran and back to your ship in plenty of time.

High tides here on Jonesville Point have seemed a little higher than normal, up over our little piece of beach. Low tide is 11:46 a.m. Have a great weekend!

May 17, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo this morning comes from Phil Sikora. I know it looks like one of the suns from a planet on Star Wars, but it is actually our sun over Carib Bight. We start the day with 20 mph east winds and smoke, smoke, smoke. Don’t forget the five most-liked photos on Facebook will compete June 1 for a $50 gift certificate to Hangover Hut.

Let’s start with the satellite, where we see the smoke plume over our entire region of the Caribbean. The edge seems so close, yet so far away. We start the day with 20 mph east/southeast winds and 4 foot seas on the southside. That should calm to 15-20 mph midday, but we are going to get back to 30 mph east winds tonight. Winds will continue over the weekend from the east/southeast, but next week they start to come more directly from the east and even occasionally from the northeast. They will also be slightly calmer. That gives us hope that the smoke will be better next week.

The airport is again closed this morning. The airport was only closed a couple of hours yesterday, but this morning looks a little worse. In any case, chances are good that conditions improve in the afternoon.

I wanted to republish this comment made yesterday by Harry Hewson on Facebook about the situation at the airport: Just a comment about air travel in and out of RTB. RTB is only equipped with a VOR non-precision approach procedure for aircraft to use in bad weather. This is a very old and rudimentary technology that requires 4000m visibility at the airport in order to fly the approach. Current smoke situation has reduced visibility below 1000m at times. If you want to complain about something, campaign to have the Honduras Civil Aeronautic Agency (AHAC) install a certified, modern precision approach (ILS or GPS) for RTB. The smoke will continue to be an annual problem. Giving pilots the tools to deal with it is the solution.

We’ll take a moment to take note of the dust in the air. In all honesty, the dust has taken a back seat to the smoke as our concern. The dust is higher up in the atmosphere and doesn’t have much effect on aviation and health like smoke does, but it does seem to get a little better this weekend before getting a little worse middle of next week.

Let’s take a moment to note that all of our reef in under a heat watch, with temperatures already above their historic maximum of 84 degrees (28.9 C). One more degree celsius and we are in bleaching territory again. I don’t talk much about climate change because I don’t want to start an argument, but things are definitely not getting better when it comes to heat, fires and dust.

With all these flight delays, it makes sense to rely on the Galaxy Wave ferry to get over to the mainland. Those ferries cut right through the smoke and make it to La Ceiba and back right on time.

Lowest tide will be 11:30 a.m. Have a great Friday.

May 15, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. This morning’s photo shows the morning clouds over Roatan as Pamela McNab-Fernandez was coming in for a landing from San Pedro Sula. The clouds contain some Saharan dust, but not much smoke. All that smoke is in the lower parts of the atmosphere where we breathe unfortunately.

On satellite we can see the smoky haze and the bluer colors of clearer skies just to our northeast. Unfortunately we are stuck in a southeasterly flow that is driving in smoke from the northeast coast of mainland Honduras. I’m not an expert on the habits of Honduran farmers, but they seem to do a lot of this burning at night, which brings us the most smoke in the mornings. Things seem to get a little better during the day and then it starts all over again. Our main hope is for some rain on the mainland since we seem to have no hope on the islands for rain anytime soon. As we get into the middle of next week there is a better chance of some showers in central Honduras, though chances are still low in northern Honduras.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: I don’t have to tell you it’s windy. We wake up to east/southeast winds around 30 mph and seas around 5 feet south side. As we get toward midday that should go down to 15-20 mph and seas 4 feet south side. Winds tomorrow will be 15 mph midday and 25-30 mph at night. The big news with wind is that the forecast for midweek next week is for the winds to be more directly from the east and not from the southeast. That could mean less morning smoke from the mainland.

We continue to see hope for improvement in the dust forecast, especially for the period Friday through Sunday.

This won’t directly affect us, but the National Weather Service is giving that disturbance on the Pacific side a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.

One of the things I learned the last time I was at Ikigai by Robby Molina is that they do a lot of catering. If you want to make sure your group or event is well stocked with the highest quality food and drinks, give Melissa Dixon a call at 9606-1668.

Tides will continue to be mild, with low tides at 10:30 a.m. and 10:30 p.m. Have a great Wednesday!

May 14, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Chantal Jaffré on West Bay. Today will continue windy, with east winds around 20 mph and 25-30 mph tonight. Seas southside will be 4 feet during the day and 6 feet at night. Winds will calm slightly tomorrow to 15 mph daytime and 20-25 mph nighttime, but the week will be windy and dry and hot. The high yesterday was 90 at the airport (32C). It will be similar today.

High and low tides will be mild. Have a great Tuesday!

May 13, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Someone recently asked for photos without sunsets, so today decided to go with Patti Yelinek’s photo. It should have a sunset in it over West End, but it was too smoky/dusty to see it. Send your photo, with or without a sunset, to bookmybio@gmail.com with name of photographer and location.

This morning we can actually see the smoke on satellite as a thin haze.

Not wanting to make you feel bad, but look at all the rain in the eastern Pacific over toward Panama. This rain seems mostly stationary and definitely not coming toward us. On the bright side, long-term forecasts are trying to give us at least a chance of showers 10 days out.

On this map you can see the dust. Right now we are stuck in the green, with moderate levels of Saharan dust. As we get toward Wednesday we start getting into the yellows with lighter dust and by Friday we see a few patches of white, which means blue sky (if we can get rid of the smoke).

The sargassum has gotten much better. On this map you can actually see that a small patch is supposed to pass by today, but not as big as last week’s and it should get better as the week goes on.

Here’s a little math for you. Carniceria Rosita meat + air fryer = heaven on earth.

Lowest tide is 8:30. Have a great week!

May 12, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Keith Nelson in Sandy Bay and shows a red, dusty, smoky sunset. If you’d like to enter your photo for a chance at $50 in food and fun at Hangover Hut email your photo with name and location to bookmybio@gmail.com. Reallly quick forecast today because there’s not much to say. East winds will pick up this week to 20 mph and 3-4 foot seas southside during the day and 25-30 mph and 4-5 foot seas southside at night. Smoke and dusty haze continues with no rain in sight. Have a great Sunday.

May 11, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Andrea DeMille and this spooky sunset was taken from the Thai Elephant in West End. Our smoke and dust is continuing to give us spooky skies. I feel like I’m living on Tatooine. Speaking of spooky skies, last night was the strongest aurora borealis events in 20 years.

Our satellite shows lots of high clouds and virtually no popcorns clouds at all. That adds up to hazy skies and no rain chances.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Today we will continue to have 15 mph east winds during the day and 20 mph east winds at night. Seas will be 3-5 feet. Starting tomorrow east winds will be 20 mph during the day and 25-30 mph at night with seas 4-6 feet south side.

I found this from Rob Hoff on Twitter of the Northern Lights over Garden of the Gods in Colorado Springs. The farthest south I could find mention of the lights last night was Fort Lauderdale, Florida. It is almost unheard of that the lights would be seen in Central America, but there is one recorded event, the Carrington Event in 1859, that recorded lights even as close to the equator as Colombia and caused telegraph machines to operate without their battery power. Nothing like that is expected, but the storm will continue through the weekend.

I found this map that uses satellite data to count individual fires. Notice how the number increases in central and eastern interior of Honduras. These are agricultural fires (I understand clearing sugar cane fields) that occur each April and May. This time of year is usually dry, but this year has been unusually dry, adding to the problem.

This forecast wind map for Monday shows the reason we are in so much smoke. Notice the winds coming from the south through the interior of the Mosquito Coast (to our southeast). This is where a lot of the agricultural fires are burning. Then the winds pick up and blow hard from the southeast over us. This next week looks to continue to be smoky and, unfortunately, might even get smokier. I’ve looked in past years weather forecasts and mentions of smoke tend to get less as we get into late May. Let’s hope so.

Treat mom (or anyone) to a choice between surf and turf or pork tenderloin in vodka watermelon (nothing to hate about that) tomorrow at Ikigai by Robby Molina in French Harbour.

Low tide is 6 p.m. Have a great weekend!

May 10, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Larissa Johnson in Gibson Bight. I love the sun’s reflection off the calm waters. Waters are not this calm today, but they definitely are calmer on the north side than on the south side where we have 25 mph southeast winds and seas 4-5 feet.

Our haze is not just about the dust. There are high clouds moving from west to east. Lower down in the atmosphere we have some popcorn clouds scattered about. It wouldn’t be impossible for someone to see a sprinkle somewhere this morning, but I don’t see any measured rain at any weather station on our islands.

I’ve been noticing that the GFS is trying to make a tropical storm in the Pacific south of Honduras and El Salvador. The Canadian model is also picking up on this. Again, no threat to us because whatever it is is moving west.

The bad news from the Saharan dust is that it looks like it will keep coming, keeping our skies hazy. In fact, it looks like it might get a little worse middle of next week.

As a preview of my upcoming video on our trip to Guanaja, I thought I’d post this video of the amazing Villa Caterina house where we stayed thanks to our amazing supporter Lisa Garcia and her husband Oscar. The house is available for rent and is also for sale. It’s right next to the Guanaja Beach Hotel in El Bight so there’s lots of great amenities nearby.

Lowest tide is 5 p.m. under a new moon. Have a great Friday!

May 9, 2024

Good smokey morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day is from Jeffrey Hill, taken from the top of the hill above Jonesville Point and Czech Village looking toward Oakridge and Calabash. I got a good view of this area from the sea side during my weekend trip to Guanaja. I’m working on a video of my experience I hope to have out this weekend.

The GFS weather model keeps wanting to turn the storms on the Pacific side of the mainland into a tropical storm, but the National Hurricane Center isn’t buying it. Even if this happens, it won’t help us since these storms are moving into west into the Pacific.

On our satellite we see that it isn’t just dust and smoke in the air. We also have actual clouds. There’s even some storms on the Pacific side of Honduras. Unfortunately, those are not moving north. Today and tomorrow we will be mostly cloudy in the mornings with some hazy sun in the afternoons. This weekend should be less cloudy.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We will continue to have east winds around 15 mph and seas 3 feet southside middays and gusting to 25 mph and 5 feet southside evenings.

We aren’t the only ones who are dry. The mainland, especially the western side, and Belize up into the Yucatan of Mexico is in exceptional drought. There isn’t much in the forecast that says this will change over the next week.

Smoke from fires can be seen in the darker shades here. Usually these are agricultural fires from farmers clearing land. Visibility at the airport is down to 5 kilometers and modified visual flight rules. Hopefully we don’t have a repeat of last year, when flights were diverted due to smoke.

Ikigai by Robby Molina is hosting a special Sunday Bruch for Mom this Sunday. Check it out, along with the dinner special the same day.

Lowest tide is 4 p.m. Have a great Thursday!