Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Jeff Kuryk who gives us a panomaramic sunset at West Bay Beach. Remember we just have until Friday to enter to win $50 at Hangover Hut by sending me a photo at bookmybio@gmail.com with name and location. We have good news today, unfortunately it isn’t rain, but we do have near unlimited visibility in the morning for the first time in forever.

Here’s our closeup satellite and we can see the smoke plume is not as hevy as it has been in recent days and is off to the west of Roatan, so you folks on Utila are still dealing with a little smoke.

You can see there is some rain off to our east. This should push a little more moisture our way. It means that starting Wednesday, instead of a 0 percent chance of rain, we will start having like a 15-20 percent chance of a morning shower. It isn’t much but it is something. On the mainland the chances will be higher, which will be good for putting out the fires. The main storm will stay to our east before moving north and out of the area.

When it comes to the oppressive heat we’ve been experiencing, this is one of the better explanations I’ve seen. It comes from Jeff Berardelli, a forecaster for WFLA in Tampa, Florida. We had a heat index yesterday of 116 degrees (42C) at West Bay Hills, which is away from the beaches and therefore usually a tad hotter than it is right on the sea Being this hot this early is not good, but if we can get rain nearby, it will cool us off a few degrees.

With bluer skies returning to the island, if you’re planning your next cruise excursion your best bet is to look up the ones led by Jolly Roger Roatan. They will always give you the best island experience and get you back to your boat in good time.

High and low tides look fairly mild. Have a great Tuesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Josée Massicotte and shows a spooky leaf in front of the full moon. It is so spooky, in fact, that Josée suggested I save it for October, but I have to say with all this smoke around it is has been pretty spooky in May. What was also spooky is how the Agencia Hondureña de Aeronáutica Civil – AHAC first closed the airport yesterday with 2000 meter visibility, then immediately reopened it and deleted the first message like it was a mistake. I thought that 2000 meters was too little visibility for the airport to be open, but maybe I’m mistaken. We’ll find out soon because the airport is at 2000 meter visibility again this morning.

On satellite we’re seeing just as much smoky haze as we have at any point this smoke season. This has clearly been the longest period of smoke we’ve seen in the five years I’ve lived on the island. A lot of that has to do with the extended drought we’ve had.
Wind and Galaxy wave forecast: We wake up to east/southeast winds at 20 mph and seas 4 feet southside. Winds should calm midday to 10-15 mph and seas 2-3 feet. We will continue that familiar cycle for the next few days.

We’re continuing to watch the chance of increased rain chances starting middle of next week. When we say increased rain chances, we’re talking 20-30 percent each day starting about Wednesday. It looks like the chances will be better the farther east you go, so Guanaja will have better chances than Utila. Hopefully we can get some rain on the northeast coast of the mainland to knock down some of these fires.

Low tide is 3:45 p.m. Have a great weekend!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day goes a slightly different direction this morning. Glory Cone sends us this young man in Punta Caliente near Pandy Town enjoying a fresh tortilla. Our visibility this morning is 6000 meters, which is better than it has been in probably two weeks. An upper air flow from the northeast is helping push away some of the smoke, but I’m also suspecting they’re running out of fields to burn on the mainland.

Our satellite this morning shows some smoky haze still, especially to our southwest, but it also shows a few popcorn clouds, the kind that can occasionally give us a small shower. We’re hoping these increase, especially starting one week from today, giving us better rain chances, especially in the mornings.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with 15 mph east winds and seas 2-3 feet. We will continue to have mild east winds 10-15 mph during the day with 2 foot seas south side and 15-20 mph east winds overnights with 3 foot seas. These conditions will continue through the weekend.

The GFS forecast still strongly believes we will get some rain starting a week from today. Other models have been more conservative. I’m including the Canadian model. It gives us some chances next week, maybe 20 percent each morning. That’s better than the zero we have now, but not as aggressive as the GFS model.

Our Tigre is an island rescue kitty and Roatan Operation Animal Rescue does great work helping needy pets find the right humans. That work is supported by Mitch Cummins at Roatan Pets. If you want to find locally sourced food designed for your pet, whether he comes from the island or from some other place.

Low tide is 2:15 p.m. Have a great Thursday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Samantha Bauer in West End and shows a purple sky at sunset. I have to say it looks slightly clearer today to me. The visibility of the airport is 4000 meters and if we can keep it there, the airport would be open, but there is smoke still around so it is possible it gets a little worse, so we are on the borderline as far as the airport is concerned. Winds are a bit calmer at 15 mph and seas are 2-3 feet south side. we should get winds turning to the northeast this evening which will be even better for the smoke. We are still waiting to see if rain chances come into the forecast around May 30.

On this morning’s satellite you can see that clear skies are a little closer to us to the north than they have been previous days, but the smoke is still with us.

Low tide is 1:50 p.m. Have a great Wednesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo this morning comes from Will Rutledge and shows him and his friend Tati Pereira at the waterfall coming off Michael Rock in Guanaja. It is a great reminder of all the fun things you can do when you hop on the Galaxy Wave ferry to Guanaja on a Friday or a Saturday. We seem to be in an endless cycle of morning smoke and afternoon heat.

On our visible satellite image we can see the smoke plume over us. It looks like it gets better over toward Guanaja.

Our visibility is 1500 meters at 7 a.m. That’s not great and will probably mean a closure of the airport this morning, but it is better than yesterday. I would again expect the airport to be open by afternoon.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast. We start the day with east/southeast winds 20 mph and seas 4 feet on the south side. Winds for the week ahead should be slightly calmer than last week, with daytime winds 12-17 mph and seas 2-3 feet and nighttime winds 17-22 mph and seas 3-4 feet. We are also thinking winds will be more due east, and perhaps slightly northeast in the afternoons, which would be good for pushing back the smoke.

If you think our air is bad, take a look at San Pedro and especially Tegucigalpa. I don’t think I’ve seen air this bad the whole time we’ve been dealing with the fires. Air quality in Teguc is dangerous for healthy people with Air Quality numbers between 300-400. Visibility at Toncontin Airport is 500 meters!

Miss Liz Riggs over in Politilly pointed my attention to the current drought map. You will notice that the Western Caribbean is one of the driest spots in North and South America. This is truly a devastating drought we’ve been through.

We’ve looked at the GFS forecast giving us hope for some rain end of the month into first of June. Here is the 10 day forecast from the Euro through May 30. You will note that the better chance of rain will be on the mainland. That will be good, because it will finally put out these fires. Less certain is rain up here on the islands. Our chances will be better, but rain is not certain.

Ikigai by Robby Molina is now open on Mondays by popular demand! Go over and check out one of the best chefs in Central America!

Low tide is 12:40 p.m. Have a great week!

Good morning Bay Islands. I choose to call this photo sunrise over Reco. It was taken in Jonesville Point by Milena Štefaniková. I don’t know about you, but my Reco has been flickering off and on quite a bit lately. Maybe it is the effect of the wind. If so, that should calm a bit over the next couple of days. It is also quite smoky today.

We start as we usually do, with a look at our satellite. We can again see our smoke plume overhead and quite a bit of cloudiness to our west. It seems that the mainland was dry last night and we are dealing with the smoke, perhaps even worse than previous days.

The 7 a.m. report at the airport said that flight conditions were BCAT1, meaning “below category 1”. Even if they had the best instrument landing system available, those aren’t good conditions for flying. Visibility is only 800 meters. At 7:30 a.m. the Agencia Hondureña de Aeronáutica Civil – AHAC has not announced closures yet, but I don’t see how the airport can be open in these conditions. Again, like previous days, hopefully things get clearer in the afternoon and the North American flights can land.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to east/southeast winds 20 mph and seas 4-5 feet southside. We should see a bit of a calmdown today, with winds midday 10-15 mph and seas 3-4 feet. Tonight we will get back to 20-25 mph and seas 4-5 feet but tomorrow, winds will be 10-15 mph and seas 2-3 feet. We are still hoping to see winds coming a little more due east over the course of this week instead of from the southeast, thereby decreasing our smoke.

The GFS forecast is not only trying to forecast some rain for the end of May/beginning of June, it is also forecasting a tropical cyclone. I imagine someone will put out a scary post saying we’re about to have a hurricane in Roatan. Don’t believe it. The GFS is famous for forecasting tropical storms in the extended forecast. These storms rarely develop and it would be quite unusual for one to form this time of year. That said, I sincerely hope they are correct about the chances of rain.

On the bright side, the Euro also agree that as we get to the end of May, we will have more moisture in the upper atmosphere and, therefore, a better chance at showers. The moist air is represented by yellows and reds, the dry by green and blue.

Don’t forget that today is Lobster Sunday at Ikigai by Robby Molina. It’s a deal you can’t beat, with a cocktail to go with it.

Low tide is around noon. Have a great Sunday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day was taken by Dawn Schoenherr at Blue Bahia Beach Grill, and if she gets enough likes she could get $50 toward more meals and great pictures there. Don’t forget to send your photo to bookmybio@gmail.com with name and location. We start the day with poor visibility and a little hope that things are slowly getting better.

On our satellite we can still see the smoke plume over us, but we also see a few more clouds over the mainland. It seems that some locations near San Pedro Sula got a little rain. More rain on the mainland means fewer fires and less smoke. As we get into next week, while there is no rain in our forecast, the mainland may get a little, which will help.

I mentioned last night that our visibility had gotten back to 10 km (the maximum) last night for the first time in about a week. We are back down to 4000 meters this morning, which is close to the trigger for closing the airport. We will see what happens soon (it seems like a decision is made around 7:20 a.m. daily). The past few days the closing has only been for a couple of hours in the morning and has mostly delayed the morning flights from the mainland. Let’s hope that continues.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Today we wake to 20 mph east/southeast winds and seas 4-5 feet. We will stay right around there today and tonight we will again get windier, to 25-30 mph winds and seas 5-6 feet south side, but starting tomorrow we will get calmer. Sunday with east winds 10-15 mph during the day and seas around 3 feet and around 20 mph at night. Utila will even pick up some westerly and northerly breezes. Monday and Tuesday look like days when midday we will be fairly calm.

While we are still dealing with smoke, there is hope on the horizon. Whatever San Pedro Sula got last night in rain got their Air Quality Index to improve to 80. It was nearly 200 earlier in the week.

We aren’t getting very cool overnight. A lot of that has to do with the smoke and clouds keeping the heat in. Most of us are only getting down to 85 (29.4C) overnight. On the bright side, the airport only gave us a high of 89 (31.7C) because that same haze is keeping the solar rays down.

I hate to put too much hope in a long-range forecast, but the GFS is trying to give us a pattern change with more rain starting at the end of May into the first of June.

This coming Tuesday looks like a lower wind day. Tuesday is also a big cruise day. If you are planning your shore leave from your cruise, ask about booking with Jolly Roger Roatan. They get you to a great excursion on a comfy catamaran and back to your ship in plenty of time.

High tides here on Jonesville Point have seemed a little higher than normal, up over our little piece of beach. Low tide is 11:46 a.m. Have a great weekend!