July 3, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Hurricane Beryl is about to strike Jamaica this afternoon and I’m afraid Kingston will take a direct hit from its 145 mph winds. Beryl is somewhat weaker than it was at its peak of 165 mph. We will start seeing minor effects this afternoon with a switch in our winds to the northeast around 15 mph. Tonight and tomorrow morning looks quite calm. What happens during the day tomorrow has a lot to do with exactly where Beryl passes to our north and how weak it gets.

Let’s start by taking a look at Beryl. You will notice it is hard to see an eye anymore. This is due to the wind shear we have been talking about for quite awhile, but the storm has been holding up remarkably well. That will be bad news for Jamaica today, especially Kingston.

Let’s talk about exactly where the storm is going. This is the GFS forecast for 8 p.m. tomorrow. It has the center of the storm moving south of Cozumel/Cancun. You will notice the high winds are mostly on the north side of the storm. If this happens, our winds will be from the west but fairly light, maybe 10 mph. Our rainfall will also be less, maybe a quarter to half an inch.

This is the Euro for midnight tomorrow night. It has the storm slightly further south and slightly stronger. If this happens, we will have west winds at 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. Seas tomorrow night and Friday morning would be around 6 feet, especially on the north and west sides. The Euro gives us about an inch of rain, maybe a little more.

So to summarize the forecast, partly cloudy today with increasing clouds into the evening. Scattered showers tonight through early Friday morning. There may be periods of 30 mph winds, especially tomorrow night. Most of Friday should be dry.

I made fun of the storm behind Beryl yesterday, but it actually looks better today. The NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center still gives it only a 20 percent chance of forming, but a lot of models are picking up on it. If it continues to survive, there is a possibility it could give us a better chance of rain Sunday into Monday.

I want to thank those who have reached out with words of appreciation for our service and for several coffees I have gotten at buymeacoffee.com/roatan. I also want to mention that any businesses who would like to sponsor at the $50 a month level, WhatsApp me at 94754406 for details.

We have quite a low tide at 2:10 p.m. and we are nearing new moon stage tonight. Have a great Wednesday!

July 2, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. We are at a very strange moment in our relationship with Hurricane Beryl. It is a Category 5 monster south of Puerto Rico, heading into our section of the Western Caribbean, but it is also forecast to go north of us and weaken considerably.

In a lot of ways it is hard to believe the forecasts of weakening, but the reason has to do with this map. There is a solid line of wind shear (winds blowing the opposite direction) that promise to try to tear this storm apart. Can it beat back the shear? Maybe.

As it stands, here are the headlines for us.

  1. Any effects on us should come overnight Thursday into early Friday morning.
  2. The main effects should be some scattered showers Thursday night, mild westerly winds and seas on the north and west sides around 5-6 feet.

Here is the current forecast cone. We are safely south of it. We currently have a 20 percent chance of seeing tropical storm force winds (39 mph) and only a 2 percent chance of hurricane force (74 mph).

This is the Euro wave map for around 7 a.m. Friday. This would be the time of the first ferry to the mainland and we’re seeing 6-7 foot waves north side, so there is a real possibility the morning ferries are canceled that day. I would imagine most flights except the ones to Belize can make it, they will just have to fly around the storm.

The potential storm behind Beryl no longer looks like it will make it to a tropical system. It MAY bring us a better chance of rain on Sunday.

This morning a storm has brought about a half inch to Guanaja. It doesn’t look like it has a lot of juice left, so we will keep a small chance of rain this morning, but it isn’t likely. Rain chance will remain fairly low until we get to Thursday night Friday morning, and even then we may be disappointed. Right now the Euro is giving us about an inch.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Winds today will remain from the east around 20 mph and seas around 3 feet. Tomorrow they will be 10-15 mph and seas 2 feet, and winds will take a turn to the northeast in the afternoon. Thursday is the calm before the storm with northeast winds around 10 mph and seas around 2 feet northside.

We’re still hoping for some rain Friday morning, and there’s nothing that goes better on a cool, rainy day than stewing meat from Carniceria Rosita in a nice beef stew.

Low tide is 12:30 p.m. If you enjoy these forecasts, please support us at patreon.com/roatanweather and buymeacoffee.com/roatan.

July 1, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. I’m going to suspend the photo of the day until the storm threat has passed, but later this morning I will post the poll so you can vote on June’s photo of the month.

The headlines today:

Hurricane Beryl will pass through Grenada within a couple of hours as a category 4.

The latest Euro shows the storm coming closer to us, but only as a tropical storm.

The GFS and ICON continue to show it going further north, away from us, as well as weakening.

Target time for Beryl’s closest pass at the islands is Thursday night.

Very briefly, let’s talk about our current weather. On satellite we can see some showers that are moving through Guanaja at 6:30 a.m. They have picked up around a quarter of an inch. These clouds are moving toward the south. It is possible that Roatan, especially the east side, could see chances of showers in the 7-8 a.m. time period. As for the rest of the day, the rain chance will be around 20 percent and skies will be partly cloudy.
Tomorrow chances will be 30 percent and Wednesday 40 percent.
We have east winds 25 mph and seas 4 feet on the southside. As the day goes on we should calm to 15-20 mph and 2-3 feet. Tomorrow winds will be 15-20 mph and seas 2-3 feet. As we get into Wednesday and Thursday morning, seas should be even calmer, as often happens when a storm approaches. Seas should be quite wavy Thursday evening into night, even if the storm is further away, due to swell.

One of the changes this morning is that the Euro is pushing the storm further south. This is a forecast of the spin in the atmosphere and helps us see the center of the storm better. You will see it shows the center of the storm moving just north of us. in the middle of Thursday night

The Euro also shows the storm decreasing rapidly, so it only makes it a tropical storm as it passes north of us Thursday night.

The GFS and ICON both show the storm moving further north, hitting around Cancun. This would be better for us obviously.

Here are the wind chances according to the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center. They are giving Guanaja and Roatan a 30-40 percent chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds. We also have a 9 percent chance of experiencing hurricane force (74 mph) winds. Peak wind time will be Thursday evening into Thursday night.

Potential Tropical Storm Debby is still running behind Beryl. It has not yet organized and the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center has lowered the probability to 60 percent chance that it gets organized. If it does, it should follow behind Beryl and could impact us Sunday, but likely as a tropical storm or just a tropical wave.

If you are a potential cruiser, your cruise line will make sure that your safety is a priority. I expect some changes in cruise schedules this week, if only because the storm in between the US and Roatan. If your ship makes it here, Jolly Roger Roatan will make sure you have the safest, most fun excursion possible.

Lowest tide is 11:30 a.m. If you would like to support our work here, go to patreon.com/roatanweather or buymeacoffee.com/roatan. Have a great, and a safe, week.

June 30, 2024 evening update for Hurricane Beryl and Potential Storm Chris

The good news is that the storm is trending in the right direction for us — northward. We are now on the very southern edge of the cone of uncertainty.

It is not impossible for it to come our way, but chances are good it passes north of us, gives us some moderate westerly winds on Thursday and choppy seas west and north sides Thursday night and Friday morning.

Hour 84 on the intensity chart is when Beryl will make its closest pass to us.

You would be forgiven for thinking this was the path chart for Beryl about three days ago, but no, it is Invest 96L, potentially Tropical Storm Chris. It is following a similar path to Beryl. The one good thing about the future Chris is that Beryl should churn the waters a bit in front of it, given it a little cooler waters and perhaps a little less hurricane fuel. If it comes toward us, Sunday is the day to watch for.

June 30, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. We aren’t going to do a photo of the day, but tomorrow will be the contest for the winner of a free dive at Sandy Bay Divers. Here are the headlines:

1. I feel a lot better today than I did yesterday that we will not take a direct hit. It is still a possibility, but the majority of models are agreeing that this will pass north of us. The south side of a storm is the weaker side. Depending on how far north of us it goes, it is still possible we see minimal effects.

2. The trend with this storm is that it will be stronger when it get around here than previously thought. Right now the best estimate is Cat2 100 mph, but this is an unprecedented storm this early in the season and a bigger storm is not out of the question.

3. The Euro has this coming closer to us, giving us 8 foot seas on the north side Thursday evening. Other models have it going further north and less impact on winds and seas here. Still, there is a good possibility of a stormy Wednesday night through Thursday night.

4. This is a relatively fast-moving storm, so that is a good thing no matter where it goes.

Let’s take a moment to be amazed at how well-formed this storm is. It is the earliest Category 3 on record with 115 mph winds. It is the first such storm east of the Windward Islands in June. It is the earliest Cat3 in June since 1966. This year is definitely going to be different than previous years, more dangerous for everybody.

Here is the projected path with expected max wind speeds. Keep in mind the max wind speed is a small area near the eye of the storm. The most dangerous area of this storm will be right near the eye and the next most dangerous area will be north and east of the eye.

Forecast today through Wednesday. We wake up to 25 mph southeast winds and seas around 4 feet southside. Today we will have 20 mph east winds and seas around 3 feet and tonight we’ll be back up to 25 mph east winds. Tomorrow and Tuesday will be a bit calmer with winds around 15 mph and seas 2-3 feet southside.
Today will be mostly sunny. Starting tomorrow we will have a small chance of a stray shower, Tuesday a 30 percent chance and Wednesday increasing clouds and showers as the storm starts getting closer.

Want to enjoy the calm before the storm? Go get you some lobster at Ikigai by Robby Molina in French Harbour. Best deal on the island with a top100 chef, an unbeatable combination.

If you want to support the work we do here, check out patreon.com/roatanweather or buymeacoffee.com/roatan

Low tide is 10:40 p.m. Have a great Sunday!

June 29, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of they day comes from Ignacio Zapata, taken from a window at Arihini Tower on West Bay Road. It shows a classic cumulus cloud along with the downpour underneath. We had some of these downpours yesterday as our tropical wave passed over. We should have decreasing clouds today as the wave moves over the Yucatan.

Here is the satellite view this morning. We have clouds over our islands and possibly a few sprinkles here or there, but as the day goes along we should see fewer clouds, more sun, and very little threat of rain midday into the afternoon. Tomorrow and Monday looks mostly dry as well.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: The east end of the island woke up to 20 mph southeast winds and 3 foot seas. The west end of the island is around 10 mph and Utila has light west winds, but we should all see 20-25 mph east winds by afternoon and south side seas 3-4 feet. Those winds will continue into tomorrow. Monday east winds will be 15-20 mph and seas still around 3 feet.

Here’s the latest map for Tropical Storm Beryl. Keep in mind the cone (the white area and the area with white dots) is the possible future CENTER of the storm, not the size of the storm. If the storm center is on the southern side of this cone, it is bad for us. If the center is on the northern side of the cone, it will be good for us, and possibly we might not have any effects at all.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the projections say “H” for hurricane and not “M” for major hurricane. That means right now it is forecast to have winds less than 110 mph near the eye. 70-100 mph can still do a lot of damage, though.

One thing to keep in mind is that there is a storm behind Beryl and that could also prove to be a threat to us. As you look at the predicted paths, you will see this second storm following it and perhaps becoming as strong or stronger than Beryl.

Here is the GFS forecast and it continues to be the best for us, pushing the storm south of Cuba, but I will also say the trend on the GFS is to the south, because yesterday it was forecasting the storm to go into Cuba.

Here is the Euro which forecasts the storm to come in a bad place for us, between us and the mainland. The reason who this is bad for us, is that the northern half of a storm is the stronger half, so this is perhaps the worst possible path for a hurricane as far as the Bay Islands are concerned.

Here is the German ICON. It has Beryl passing to our north, but is also interesting because it grows the second storm into a strong hurricane that could threaten us late next weekend.

I often get questions about whether flights or ferries will happen and I can tell you that your safety is a priority for the airlines and for Galaxy Wave. Decisions will be made on a daily basis based on the position of the storm and the height of the seas between here and your destination. There will be no reason to worry until around Thursday and we will know more about this storm early next week.

Please continue to monitor this situation, but don’t panic. We will know much more as we get to Monday.

Low tide is 9:45 a.m. Have a great weekend!

June 28, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Phil Sikora got this rainbow yesterday over Carib Bight and we had the better chance of seeing one on the east side of the island, with most of us getting about 2/3 of an inch yesterday. West Bay and West End practically missed out with .10 of an inch while Sandy Bay to mid-island got 1/3 of an inch. Guanaja got half an inch and Utila also got a third of an inch. This morning we are mostly sunny, but a few of us picked up .01 of an inch around daybreak. There are rain chances this afternoon into tonight, but the big story is what we’re watching for next Friday.

As you can see, the rain from our current tropical wave is mostly to our east. It will move to the northwest and there’s a chance it will miss us to the north. Still, we will keep a 50 percent chance of rain, especially for late this afternoon into the early nighttime hours. There will be a small chance of rain tomorrow morning, but the weekend looks mostly dry and partly cloudy. Monday through Wednesday we will have 30 percent chances of showers, especially in the mornings.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Today will actually be quite calm, with light and variable winds and seas 1-2 feet. If we get a squall this evening, of course there might be wind with that. Tomorrow should start calm, but east winds at 20 mph and seas at 3 feet should return around midday tomorrow. We’ll keep those 15-20 mph east winds and 3-4 foot south side seas into early next week.

We have a little yellow x almost directly over us, but at least this morning we are missing out on the rain, which is mostly to our east and northeast. But of more serious concern is the red X still in the middle of the Atlantic. Models are unanimous that this will become a hurricane and that it will come toward us.

Let’s start with the bad news. The Euro is forecasting the worst possible path for this storm (currently known as 95L), splitting the gap between the Bay Islands and the mainland. Fortunately, we are a week away and this path will certainly change, but the storm is generally coming toward us and any impacts on us would come next Thursday night into Friday.

The GFS path is better for us. It moves the storm more north, toward Cuba. If it takes this path, it would have little to no impact on us. Notice the storm right behind it. That is the yellow X in the Atlantic on the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center map and is also a storm to watch, though it should be weaker than 95L.

Here are the various paths that different computers within the GFS model predict for the storm. You will notice that the storm is expected to strengthen in the eastern Caribbean, but weaken somewhat as it nears us due to wind shear.

The forecast strength for the storm peaks around Tuesday in the eastern Caribbean, probably as a category 1 or 2, but weakens as it moves our way. If it comes toward us, it would be at the end of this graph, around hour 168, and by then it might even degrade to less than a tropical storm. Let’s hope so, but our water temps are quite warm and the wind shear forecast may change, so nothing is certain.

If you decide to stock up this week, don’t forget to include your pet in your safety plans, including having plenty of locally-sourced and highly nutritious Roatan Pets food.

Low tide is 8:40 a.m. Have a great Friday.

June 25, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. our photo of the day is a very red sunset from West Bay by Milena Štefaniková. We have a bit of Saharan dust overhead so we may see some more brilliant sunrises and sunsets the next day or two, but the big news is that we have a potential tropical storm aimed at us, and that might be a good thing.

Here is the area of concern north of Venezuela over the ABC islands. It is forecast to move to the northwest quite quickly because of upper level winds pushing it toward us. It has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next several days. That’s actually pretty low, and the computer models are not really trying to blow this thing up into anything dangerous.

On the satellite view, you can clearly see the area of concern off the coast of South America.

Here is the GFS forecast through Sunday. You can see the storm move from near Venezuela toward us, bringing us a better chance of rain, especially Friday and maybe Saturday morning. When it comes to tropical systems, the GFS usually exaggerates them, forecasting a stronger storm than actually occurs. That is not happening in this forecast. I think it is possible that due to warm sea temperatures around 85 degrees (29C) that there is some concern that the computers may be underestimating the strength of the storm. As it stand, this is the best possible scenario for us, not a strong tropical storm but the potential for good rains Thursday night through Saturday morning.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with 20 mph southeast winds east end and 10 mph southeast winds west end. Seas southside are 3 feet and that should continue today and tomorrow. We’ll have to wait and see what the storm does to say much about Thursday night and Friday.

I went to Carniceria Rosita yesterday and I’m always amazed at the amount of meat I can carry home for $20-$30. We all know about that other place we are kind of forced to shop at, but doesn’t exactly give you a bang for your buck. I do shop at “that other place” but I now absolutely never buy any meat there. I get better meat for a better price at Carniceria Rosita

Low tide is 5:30 p.m. Have a great Tuesday.


June 24, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. This morning’s beautiful shot comes from Elena Gonzalez in Brick Bay. I love the ripples in our clear waters. We’re actually getting a shower in West Bay this morning.

On radar at 7 a.m. you can see a small shower that has brought a quarter of an inch to one location in Lighthouse Estates. Unfortunately this shower is very small and moving slowly to the north, so most of us will miss out.

On our satellite we can see the Belize is having most of the fun with thundershowers and we just have a few clouds. We will keep a very small chance of a shower for the early morning, but we will be partly cloudy and mostly dry today and tomorrow. Starting Wednesday evening through the weekend we will have better chances of scattered showers.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Much like yesterday, we start the day on the east side of the island with 20 mph southeast winds and seas 3 feet on the southside, but those winds get light and turn to the west on the west side of the island and Utila. We will have lighter winds for everyone (except Guanaja who will have 15 mph east winds) midday and afternoon with seas on the south side at 2 feet. Tomorrow winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 with seas 2-3 feet.

All in all seas will be pretty good and they will be great wherever Jolly Roger Roatan takes you for your cruise excursion.

Low tide is 4:40 p.m. as our full moon starts to wane. Have a great week!

June 23, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo this morning comes from Belynda Michelle in West End. If you like Belynda’s photo, give it a like and she will compete with four others in a poll for a free dive at Sandy Bay Divers. We’re also proud to announce that the prize for July will be a free round-trip ferry to Guanaja from Galaxy Wave!

On our satellite, we see a large complex of storms between southern Belize and just west of Puerto Cortes. Closer to us, at 7 a.m. we see a shower between Utila and the west side of the big island of Roatan. This shower is moving very slowly to the north/northeast. It is possible that West Bay/West End might see a shower out of this in the next hour, but this also might fall apart before it gets there. Today through Wednesday morning we expect partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and only a slight chance of a shower like this, especially in the mornings. Wednesday night through the end of the week, it looks like there will be more showers around and a better chance of getting wet.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with east winds 15 mph on the east side of the big island, calmer winds on the west side, and light westerly winds in Utila. As we get toward midday and the afternoon, winds will become light for all of us and seas will be 1-2 feet, so a great day to be on the sea! Tonight east wind will kick up to 20 mph but tomorrow midday and afternoon looks calmer again.

Calling all lobster lovers! The Sunday Lobster Special at Ikigai by Robby Molina has grown by one lobster. It now features three tasty tails and two sides! All for only $20, the best deal on the island!

Low tide is 3:45 p.m. and we are still in full moon phase. Have a great Sunday!