Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day is a great sunrise from Colette Grbac in Lighthouse Estates in West Bay Point. If you like Colette’s photo, she’ll have a chance at a free dive from Sandy Bay Divers. We’re looking for a sponsor for next month’s contest. If you’d like to sponsor, please send me a message.

Let me ask you a question. In the area between southern Mexico and Nicaragua, how much rain coverage do you think there is? Maybe 70 percent. It is just amazing that we are again stuck in a dry slot. What you are seeing is a large Central American low that is likely to become a tropical system and threaten southern Texas late this week. As it moves away from us, our chances of rain will decrease somewhat.

Here is the National Hurricane Center forecast, with a 70 percent chance of this low developing into a tropical depression over the Gulf of Mexico but, of course, no threat to us.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with 20 mph south/southeast winds and seas 4 feet on the south side. That should calm by midday to 15 mph and seas 3 feet south side. Of course, Utila is the exception, with a light westerly breeze.

Tonight and tomorrow morning should be calmer than this morning, with southeast winds around 10 mph and seas 2-3 feet. Wednesday looks similar, but Thursday and Friday look windier, with east winds those days 20-25 mph.

Don’t forget. Lots of great restaurants take Monday as their day off, but Ikigai by Robby Molina is here for your Monday cravings, with a great selection of Asian and Central American inspired dishes, as well as some great pasta choices. Or just relax with a few drinks as you watch the sun set in French Harbour.

Low tide is just before noon. Have a great week!

Good morning Bay Islands. Dmitry Nezhny sends us this beautiful cumulonimbus cloud over Lawson Rock. It would be even more beautiful if it would bring actual rain to the islands. It seems we continue to be condemned to watch jealously while it rains out to sea. At least the rain, along with heavier waves, are cooling the waters ever so slightly. The temperature gauge near Big Bight shows the water temp down to 84 (29) after getting up to 86 (30) which is the beginning of coral bleaching temperature.

Our satellite shows a nice thunderstorm over Belize City and some rain over toward Swan Island to our northeast, but none of it is moving very fast. We continue to have partly to mostly cloudy skies but no rain. Today we will have a small chance of a shower, but, as always, I wouldn’t bet on it. Some locations on the Pacific coast of Honduras got close to 10 inches of rain yesterday and more is on the way for them with a tropical disturbance in the Pacific. Looks like it is either feast or famine for Central America.

The Central American low that is bringing these nearby showers will move north/northwest into the Gulf of Mexico, with a 60 percent chance of turning into a tropical depression next week. As it moves away from us, our rain chances should get even less early this week.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with 20 mph east/southeast winds on the east side of Roatan and 10 mph winds on the west side, even calmer for Utila. Most of us have 3 foot waves on the south side. As the day goes on, winds on the west side of the island will pick up a bit to 15-20 mph. Tomorrow winds come from the south 10-15 mph and seas remain 3 feet south side. Tuesday looks a little calmer.

A quick reminder that today is the day for Roa Fest sponsored by Galaxy Wave over at Sol y Mar in Sandy Bay, starting at 11 a.m. it will be a day full of great music, great food and great family fun and all of it supports the efforts get the public hospital going.

Low tide is 11 a.m. Have a great Sunday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Bella Chamberlain from her place between Milton Bight and Politilly. It shows a gorgeous sunrise she calls “fire over ash.” Lots of folks are taking advantage of the dry weather to burn off fields.

Here is this morning’s satellite. We again see rain off the coast of Belize and north of the Mosquito Coast. Those areas are shown with blue arrows. The red arrows shows us, with a few clouds but no rain. This weekend we will have about a 20 percent chance of rain. During the week ahead, I hate to say it, but the rain chances look even less, maybe 10 percent.

I came across this weather story on Twitter. It has the promising headline “Massive Rain Central America” and indeed this weekend and early next week the Pacific coast of Honduras and El Salvador are going to have some very bad flooding. You may have seen video yesterday of street flooding in Tegucigalpa. But what caught my eye is the area where I added the arrow. The one dry hole in Central America is right over us.

Here is the Euro forecast for rain for the next week. Guess where the only dry hole is?

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with 20 mph east winds on the east side of Roatan, giving us 3 foot seas southside. Winds are much less on the west side and Utila. Actually they have a light westerly breeze. As the day goes on winds will calm to around 15 mph and 2 foot seas midday, but this evening things will get windier and overnight we will be around 25 mph from the east and 4 foot seas. Tomorrow looks like a 20 mph east wind and 3 foot seas southside. Monday things get a little calmer with 10-15 mph east winds.

I just pulled out a rack of baby back ribs from the freezer and set them to thaw. I have no doubt we’ll be eating good tonight because ribs from Carniceria Rosita can’t miss.

Lowest tide is 10:30 a.m. Have a great weekend!

Good morning Bay Islands. I usually try not to use two photos from the same person in the same month, but I have to make an exception today, because Jeffrey Hill perfectly pictured what our last 24 hours have been like with rain — so close, yet so far away. This is taken from the top of Jonesville Point looking east toward Barbarat and shows a cumulus cloud, likely with a shower at its base.

The green arrow shows the cloud that Jeffrey captured, probably bringing a shower at 6:45 a.m. in the strait between Guanaja and Barbarat. The red arrow shows an even stronger storm to our north. These are sliding slowly to the south/southwest so there is a possibility some of us could see a morning shower. I hate to say it, but after this morning I believe our chances to get rain will start going down. We’ve had something like 40 percent chances of rain the last few days and going forward, especially Sunday into early next week, the chance will be more like 20 percent.

As proof that we had good showers around, notice how quickly the temperature fell at the airport around 2 p.m. (from 91 to 75 degrees) Clearly it either rained there or someplace very nearby. Unfortunately we don’t have a rain gauge anywhere near Coxen Hole to know for certain.

At around 4 p.m. we had two storms lined up to our east, moving west, and somehow they just died before they got here. That’s what our life has been like during this drought.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast. You have another day and a half to enjoy fairly calm seas on all sides of the islands. Winds this morning are around 5 mph from the northwest and seas 1-2 feet. Winds will swing around to the east this afternoon, but remain pretty calm. Those calm winds last through tomorrow morning, but starting tomorrow evening we get our strong east winds back for the weekend. Next week looks to be around 15-20 mph east winds.

Just another reminder that the day after tomorrow will be Roa Fest, sponsored by Galaxy Wave, a day long extravaganza of music, food and activities at Sol y Mar in Sandy Bay that will benefit the public hospital. Admittance is only 50 lempiras so go have fun!

Lowest tide will be at 10 a.m. Have a great Friday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Jeffrey Hill who captured these island black iguanas, also known as washy willies, in his yard above Jonesville Point. They were sunning themselves in the sun. Even though they are cold-blooded, I wonder if they ever get hot, because it was 93 degrees yesterday at the airport. We really hope to get some rain this evening and tomorrow morning.

On our close-up satellite we see a few clouds around, especially on the west side of Roatan and over Utila, but these are unlikely to hold any rain, except maybe that cloud just east of Guanaja. These are very slowly moving to the east.

This map shows the moisture overhead, and you can see what they call the Central American gyre (or Central American low pressure) spinning and slowly moving north. The computer models give us our best chance of rain this evening through tomorrow morning. Let’s hope it happens.

In the Atlantic, there is a disturbance that brought South Florida flooding rains yesterday. In the Bay of Campeche, the Central American low that is bringing us this chance of rain has a 40 percent chance of tropical development next week.

On the Pacific side of things, there is a low percentage chance that low pressure will create a tropical storm. In any case, the Pacific side of Honduras and El Salvador will get flooding rains the first of next week.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to very mild winds and seas around 2 feet this morning. Winds will remain light and variable today and tomorrow with seas 1-2 feet. Saturday and Sunday, winds will be brisker, 20 mph from the east during the day and 25 mph at night with seas 3-5 feet.

I wrote last week about how Ikigai by Robby Molina had the best Asian food around. But don’t sleep on their Mexican food either. These Two Amigo Fajitas were more than enough for lunch. I ended up taking half of them home and having dinner as well.

Lowest tide is 9:17 a.m. Have a great Thursday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Ariane Baltodano and I’m going to take a wild guess that it is from West End. We continue to have mostly clear skies with the hope of some rain Thursday night into Friday morning.

This morning we see a few showers north of Gracias a Dios Department on the Mosquito Coast. The storms are moving southwest very slowly and probably won’t make it here. But it is better than yesterday when we saw nothing on satellite. Our rain chances will increase into the weekend. It’s not a guarantee that we will see rain, but Thursday evening through Saturday morning we will have a 35 percent chance of rain. Let’s hope we get it, because Sunday into the first part of next week looks dry.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast. We wake up on the east side of the island to 20 mph southeast winds, the strongest we’ve felt in awhile, with 3 foot seas. As the day goes on, winds will become much lighter and they will be coming from various directions. The next two days we will have light winds and seas mostly 1-2 feet, but the easterly winds get stronger this weekend, up to 30 mph Saturday night and 20-25 mph through the day on Sunday.

Sunday is the big day for Roa Fest sponsored by Galaxy Wave and among the band lineup is Mid-life Paradise and Ley Seca, two bands that cover a lot of your rock n roll favorites in English and are guaranteed to bring back those memories of your misspent youth. Entry is only 50 lempira and it’s all happening at Sol Y Mar in Sandy Bay.

The difference between low and high tide won’t be much. Have a great Wednesday.

Good morning Bay Islands. This morning’s photo comes from Kristi Voves and shows sisters Gemma and Lake walking through baby mangroves on the beach at Blue Bahia Resort. I’ll be visiting Sandy Bay Divers, the sponsors of this month’s photo contest for a dive. Seas will be a little choppier than they have in recent days, but not too bad north side.

We start with the satellite and, unlike previous days, there isn’t any nearby rain to get jealous of. Today and tomorrow look mostly sunny and hot. The high at the airport yesterday was 93 (34C). Our sea temperature monitor is getting dangerously close to the bleaching threshold of 86 (30C). We really need some cooling rains. The computers are still wanting to give us better chances late this week into this weekend as the Central American low sits nearby. Let’s hope so.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Here on the east side, we are a little windier than we have been recent mornings, with southeast winds 15 mph and seas 3 feet on the south side. As you go west along the island of Roatan winds get a bit calmer and they turn to the west on Utila. As the day goes on, winds should get a bit calmer and seas will calm to 2 feet southside, except for Guanaja, who will continue to have 15 mph east winds. Tomorrow through Friday look calmer again before we get stronger east winds this weekend.

If this just happens to be the weekend you want to buy Dad a steak, you can do no better than one of the moist and tasty cuts of beef at Carniceria Rosita.

High and low tides will be pretty mild today.

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Annette Huskin in Guanaja and shows the clouds threatening, but never quite raining at Brick Point. Yesterday a few of us got some sprinkles, but not much more. One thing the rain around us did was keep temperatures down. The high at the airport was 87 (31C) and it was noticeably cooler than those days last week when we got up to 93 (34C). The odds are that eventually some of us will get wet this week, the big question is when.

On satellite we can see a large area of showers and thunderstorms well to our east. Unfortunately it is only slowly drifting southwest and will weaken before it ever gets close to here. We have a few broken clouds around us but nothing promising rain. Each day this week we will have a chance of a morning shower, and right now it looks like the chances get a little better toward the end of the week, maybe 40 percent chances each morning.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We’ve been having 10 mph west winds and 2 foot seas in the mornings that switch over in the afternoons to 5 mph east winds and 1 foot seas. That will continue, but as we get toward the middle of the week the winds and seas in the mornings will get slightly higher, around 15 mph and 3 feet, with afternoon winds 5-10 mph and 2 feet starting Wednesday. Today and tomorrow we will continue to be 1-2 feet midday, so a great day for those Jolly Roger Roatan excursions.

It’s a challenge to find a good restaurant open on Monday, because many of them understandably take the day off. So if you want to eat out today, Ikigai by Robby Molina is staying open especially for you, and it doesn’t close until 9 p.m.!

Lowest tide will be 6:15 p.m. Have a great week.

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Cameron Kirkconnell in Utila and shows a couple of youngsters checking out the crystal clear waters on a crystal clear day. We haven’t had crystal clear days recently as we have been dealing with a lot of clouds that have knocked our temperature back from sweltering to just hot. If you have a photo you’d like to submit, please send it with name and location to bookmybio@gmail.com.

Here’s another sad satellite map that shows a storm to our north dying as it moves south over us. This has been a common occurrence the past few days. One of these mornings we will win the rain lottery and many of us will get wet. It’s just hard to say when that day will be.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with winds mostly out of the west at 5-10 mph and seas around 2 feet on both sides of the island. Winds will shift to the east this afternoon around 5 mph and seas will be around 1 foot. Our calm weather continues with light and variable winds and waves 1-2 feet. The only exception will be if we can get a squall, which will create momentary winds and waves that will soon pass.

One week from today is Roa Fest sponsored by Galaxy Wave at Sol y Mar in Sandy Bay. Lots of family fun, entry is only 50 lempira and you can enjoy Ley Seca (In English that is “Dry Law”) and many other performers from the island and mainland and lots of activities for the kids, but most importantly it all benefits the public hospital.

Low tide is 5:30 p.m. Have a great Sunday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Drew Shuller and shows a strategically place urinal in West End. That urinal has seen more moisture than our whole island these last few months.

We start with the radar since midnight and it shows a little squall line passing over the island around 1 a.m.

Here is the result of that squall we saw on radar from around 1 a.m. Several locations on Roatan picked up a measly .01 of an inch of rain, barely enough to get the ground wet.

For the rainfall forecast, I thought I’d start with the one that gives us the most hope. The Euro gives us about an inch over the next week and shifts the dry hole to our east. Over my last five years on the island, I’ve noticed that this time of year, when we start getting squalls off the sea, for some reason we are in a bit of a drier hole. There is generally more rain to our east, west, north and south. This year is no exception. The past few days we have suffered the fate of Tantallus, seeing rain all around but none for us.

Here’s the US GFS model for rainfall for the next week (through Friday) and we are the driest spot in the forecast, with maybe half an inch through the week.

You can see that the German ICON model agrees with the GFS that we will be in a dry hole for the next week.Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Our winds and seas are quite close to flat calm. Winds will be light and variable through the weekend and seas 1 foot most of the time. Sunday night and Monday night we may get a little wind (10-15 mph) and next week looks SLIGHTLY windier with maybe 2 foot seas and occasionally 3 feet, but all in all the next week will be great on the water.

Mitch Cummins recently let me know he is working on a new process of freeze drying that will extend the shelf life of his Roatan Pets food, but the fact that it HAS a shelf life tells you what you need to know. His food is fresh and made of locally sourced ingredients focused on your pet’s health, not on corporate profit margin sitting on a shelf or on a boat for months on end.

Lowest tide is 4:30 p.m. Have a great weekend!