The good news is that the storm is trending in the right direction for us — northward. We are now on the very southern edge of the cone of uncertainty.
It is not impossible for it to come our way, but chances are good it passes north of us, gives us some moderate westerly winds on Thursday and choppy seas west and north sides Thursday night and Friday morning.
Hour 84 on the intensity chart is when Beryl will make its closest pass to us.
You would be forgiven for thinking this was the path chart for Beryl about three days ago, but no, it is Invest 96L, potentially Tropical Storm Chris. It is following a similar path to Beryl. The one good thing about the future Chris is that Beryl should churn the waters a bit in front of it, given it a little cooler waters and perhaps a little less hurricane fuel. If it comes toward us, Sunday is the day to watch for.
Good morning Bay Islands. We aren’t going to do a photo of the day, but tomorrow will be the contest for the winner of a free dive at Sandy Bay Divers. Here are the headlines:
1. I feel a lot better today than I did yesterday that we will not take a direct hit. It is still a possibility, but the majority of models are agreeing that this will pass north of us. The south side of a storm is the weaker side. Depending on how far north of us it goes, it is still possible we see minimal effects.
2. The trend with this storm is that it will be stronger when it get around here than previously thought. Right now the best estimate is Cat2 100 mph, but this is an unprecedented storm this early in the season and a bigger storm is not out of the question.
3. The Euro has this coming closer to us, giving us 8 foot seas on the north side Thursday evening. Other models have it going further north and less impact on winds and seas here. Still, there is a good possibility of a stormy Wednesday night through Thursday night.
4. This is a relatively fast-moving storm, so that is a good thing no matter where it goes.
Let’s take a moment to be amazed at how well-formed this storm is. It is the earliest Category 3 on record with 115 mph winds. It is the first such storm east of the Windward Islands in June. It is the earliest Cat3 in June since 1966. This year is definitely going to be different than previous years, more dangerous for everybody.
Here is the projected path with expected max wind speeds. Keep in mind the max wind speed is a small area near the eye of the storm. The most dangerous area of this storm will be right near the eye and the next most dangerous area will be north and east of the eye.
Forecast today through Wednesday. We wake up to 25 mph southeast winds and seas around 4 feet southside. Today we will have 20 mph east winds and seas around 3 feet and tonight we’ll be back up to 25 mph east winds. Tomorrow and Tuesday will be a bit calmer with winds around 15 mph and seas 2-3 feet southside. Today will be mostly sunny. Starting tomorrow we will have a small chance of a stray shower, Tuesday a 30 percent chance and Wednesday increasing clouds and showers as the storm starts getting closer.
Want to enjoy the calm before the storm? Go get you some lobster at Ikigai by Robby Molina in French Harbour. Best deal on the island with a top100 chef, an unbeatable combination.
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of they day comes from Ignacio Zapata, taken from a window at Arihini Tower on West Bay Road. It shows a classic cumulus cloud along with the downpour underneath. We had some of these downpours yesterday as our tropical wave passed over. We should have decreasing clouds today as the wave moves over the Yucatan.
Here is the satellite view this morning. We have clouds over our islands and possibly a few sprinkles here or there, but as the day goes along we should see fewer clouds, more sun, and very little threat of rain midday into the afternoon. Tomorrow and Monday looks mostly dry as well.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: The east end of the island woke up to 20 mph southeast winds and 3 foot seas. The west end of the island is around 10 mph and Utila has light west winds, but we should all see 20-25 mph east winds by afternoon and south side seas 3-4 feet. Those winds will continue into tomorrow. Monday east winds will be 15-20 mph and seas still around 3 feet.
Here’s the latest map for Tropical Storm Beryl. Keep in mind the cone (the white area and the area with white dots) is the possible future CENTER of the storm, not the size of the storm. If the storm center is on the southern side of this cone, it is bad for us. If the center is on the northern side of the cone, it will be good for us, and possibly we might not have any effects at all. Another thing to keep in mind is that the projections say “H” for hurricane and not “M” for major hurricane. That means right now it is forecast to have winds less than 110 mph near the eye. 70-100 mph can still do a lot of damage, though.
One thing to keep in mind is that there is a storm behind Beryl and that could also prove to be a threat to us. As you look at the predicted paths, you will see this second storm following it and perhaps becoming as strong or stronger than Beryl.
Here is the GFS forecast and it continues to be the best for us, pushing the storm south of Cuba, but I will also say the trend on the GFS is to the south, because yesterday it was forecasting the storm to go into Cuba.
Here is the Euro which forecasts the storm to come in a bad place for us, between us and the mainland. The reason who this is bad for us, is that the northern half of a storm is the stronger half, so this is perhaps the worst possible path for a hurricane as far as the Bay Islands are concerned.
Here is the German ICON. It has Beryl passing to our north, but is also interesting because it grows the second storm into a strong hurricane that could threaten us late next weekend.
I often get questions about whether flights or ferries will happen and I can tell you that your safety is a priority for the airlines and for Galaxy Wave. Decisions will be made on a daily basis based on the position of the storm and the height of the seas between here and your destination. There will be no reason to worry until around Thursday and we will know more about this storm early next week.
Please continue to monitor this situation, but don’t panic. We will know much more as we get to Monday.
Good morning Bay Islands. Phil Sikora got this rainbow yesterday over Carib Bight and we had the better chance of seeing one on the east side of the island, with most of us getting about 2/3 of an inch yesterday. West Bay and West End practically missed out with .10 of an inch while Sandy Bay to mid-island got 1/3 of an inch. Guanaja got half an inch and Utila also got a third of an inch. This morning we are mostly sunny, but a few of us picked up .01 of an inch around daybreak. There are rain chances this afternoon into tonight, but the big story is what we’re watching for next Friday.
As you can see, the rain from our current tropical wave is mostly to our east. It will move to the northwest and there’s a chance it will miss us to the north. Still, we will keep a 50 percent chance of rain, especially for late this afternoon into the early nighttime hours. There will be a small chance of rain tomorrow morning, but the weekend looks mostly dry and partly cloudy. Monday through Wednesday we will have 30 percent chances of showers, especially in the mornings.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Today will actually be quite calm, with light and variable winds and seas 1-2 feet. If we get a squall this evening, of course there might be wind with that. Tomorrow should start calm, but east winds at 20 mph and seas at 3 feet should return around midday tomorrow. We’ll keep those 15-20 mph east winds and 3-4 foot south side seas into early next week.
We have a little yellow x almost directly over us, but at least this morning we are missing out on the rain, which is mostly to our east and northeast. But of more serious concern is the red X still in the middle of the Atlantic. Models are unanimous that this will become a hurricane and that it will come toward us.
Let’s start with the bad news. The Euro is forecasting the worst possible path for this storm (currently known as 95L), splitting the gap between the Bay Islands and the mainland. Fortunately, we are a week away and this path will certainly change, but the storm is generally coming toward us and any impacts on us would come next Thursday night into Friday.
The GFS path is better for us. It moves the storm more north, toward Cuba. If it takes this path, it would have little to no impact on us. Notice the storm right behind it. That is the yellow X in the Atlantic on the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center map and is also a storm to watch, though it should be weaker than 95L.
Here are the various paths that different computers within the GFS model predict for the storm. You will notice that the storm is expected to strengthen in the eastern Caribbean, but weaken somewhat as it nears us due to wind shear.
The forecast strength for the storm peaks around Tuesday in the eastern Caribbean, probably as a category 1 or 2, but weakens as it moves our way. If it comes toward us, it would be at the end of this graph, around hour 168, and by then it might even degrade to less than a tropical storm. Let’s hope so, but our water temps are quite warm and the wind shear forecast may change, so nothing is certain.
If you decide to stock up this week, don’t forget to include your pet in your safety plans, including having plenty of locally-sourced and highly nutritious Roatan Pets food.
Good morning Bay Islands. our photo of the day is a very red sunset from West Bay by Milena Štefaniková. We have a bit of Saharan dust overhead so we may see some more brilliant sunrises and sunsets the next day or two, but the big news is that we have a potential tropical storm aimed at us, and that might be a good thing.
Here is the area of concern north of Venezuela over the ABC islands. It is forecast to move to the northwest quite quickly because of upper level winds pushing it toward us. It has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next several days. That’s actually pretty low, and the computer models are not really trying to blow this thing up into anything dangerous.
On the satellite view, you can clearly see the area of concern off the coast of South America.
Here is the GFS forecast through Sunday. You can see the storm move from near Venezuela toward us, bringing us a better chance of rain, especially Friday and maybe Saturday morning. When it comes to tropical systems, the GFS usually exaggerates them, forecasting a stronger storm than actually occurs. That is not happening in this forecast. I think it is possible that due to warm sea temperatures around 85 degrees (29C) that there is some concern that the computers may be underestimating the strength of the storm. As it stand, this is the best possible scenario for us, not a strong tropical storm but the potential for good rains Thursday night through Saturday morning.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with 20 mph southeast winds east end and 10 mph southeast winds west end. Seas southside are 3 feet and that should continue today and tomorrow. We’ll have to wait and see what the storm does to say much about Thursday night and Friday.
I went to Carniceria Rosita yesterday and I’m always amazed at the amount of meat I can carry home for $20-$30. We all know about that other place we are kind of forced to shop at, but doesn’t exactly give you a bang for your buck. I do shop at “that other place” but I now absolutely never buy any meat there. I get better meat for a better price at Carniceria Rosita
Good morning Bay Islands. This morning’s beautiful shot comes from Elena Gonzalez in Brick Bay. I love the ripples in our clear waters. We’re actually getting a shower in West Bay this morning.
On radar at 7 a.m. you can see a small shower that has brought a quarter of an inch to one location in Lighthouse Estates. Unfortunately this shower is very small and moving slowly to the north, so most of us will miss out.
On our satellite we can see the Belize is having most of the fun with thundershowers and we just have a few clouds. We will keep a very small chance of a shower for the early morning, but we will be partly cloudy and mostly dry today and tomorrow. Starting Wednesday evening through the weekend we will have better chances of scattered showers.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Much like yesterday, we start the day on the east side of the island with 20 mph southeast winds and seas 3 feet on the southside, but those winds get light and turn to the west on the west side of the island and Utila. We will have lighter winds for everyone (except Guanaja who will have 15 mph east winds) midday and afternoon with seas on the south side at 2 feet. Tomorrow winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 with seas 2-3 feet.
All in all seas will be pretty good and they will be great wherever Jolly Roger Roatan takes you for your cruise excursion.
Low tide is 4:40 p.m. as our full moon starts to wane. Have a great week!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo this morning comes from Belynda Michelle in West End. If you like Belynda’s photo, give it a like and she will compete with four others in a poll for a free dive at Sandy Bay Divers. We’re also proud to announce that the prize for July will be a free round-trip ferry to Guanaja from Galaxy Wave!
On our satellite, we see a large complex of storms between southern Belize and just west of Puerto Cortes. Closer to us, at 7 a.m. we see a shower between Utila and the west side of the big island of Roatan. This shower is moving very slowly to the north/northeast. It is possible that West Bay/West End might see a shower out of this in the next hour, but this also might fall apart before it gets there. Today through Wednesday morning we expect partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and only a slight chance of a shower like this, especially in the mornings. Wednesday night through the end of the week, it looks like there will be more showers around and a better chance of getting wet.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with east winds 15 mph on the east side of the big island, calmer winds on the west side, and light westerly winds in Utila. As we get toward midday and the afternoon, winds will become light for all of us and seas will be 1-2 feet, so a great day to be on the sea! Tonight east wind will kick up to 20 mph but tomorrow midday and afternoon looks calmer again.
Calling all lobster lovers! The Sunday Lobster Special at Ikigai by Robby Molina has grown by one lobster. It now features three tasty tails and two sides! All for only $20, the best deal on the island!
Low tide is 3:45 p.m. and we are still in full moon phase. Have a great Sunday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Phil Sikora and offers a view of cumulus clouds through the power lines of Los Fuertes. We enjoyed a day of between a tenth and a quarter of an inch of rain on Roatan, less on Guanaja and more on Utila. Unfortunately our rain will not continue, and we will have mostly dry conditions through the weekend.
Our satellite image today reminds us of what we’ve been seeing the last two weeks before yesterday, with morning rain showers near Belize and well to our east. We have partly cloudy skies over us, but generally those clouds are not rain producers. Through the weekend our best chance of rain will be Saturday night/Sunday morning, but even then the chance is low, maybe 30 percent.
Roatan Weather supporter Megan Mitchell sent along this video of the happy occasion yesterday, along with her measurement of a quarter inch of rain in Sandy Bay.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with pretty typical 20 mph east/southeast winds and 3 foot seas southside. Winds will calm to 15 mph by midday and seas 2-3 feet. Tomorrow looks much like today, but Sunday we look for calmer conditions, with east winds 5-10 mph much of the day and seas 1-2 feet.
By the way, my day today will be mostly sunny, since it is the 21st anniversary of my obtaining the privilege of being married to the lovely Susan Andrews.
June 21 is often the first day of summer, but actually astronomical summer started yesterday with June 20 being the longest day of the year, due to this being a leap year. Nothing says “summer weekend” like a barbecue, and no one on the island produces better raw materials for barbecue than Carniceria Rosita. I recently visited the Rosita in Coxen Hole in the heart of the big city. It is quite a sight, with locals lined up at the butchers’ windows. If you want a taste of “real Roatan.” park your car somewhere and walk to Rosita’s Coxen location and come away with a bag full of goodies for the barbecue.
Low tide is 2:15 p.m. We’re getting close to full moon. Have a great Friday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Amy Knadler and shows folks looking longingly at storm clouds in Utila. I have to say I don’t think I’ve been through such a period on the island where rain was falling all around us and not on us. It looks like that may continue.
On satellite we can see clouds to our east, but they aren’t producing as much rain as I hoped. As the entire system moves northwest, that is bad news for our hopes of getting rain.
Keep your eye on our islands in this Euro forecast map through Monday at noon and you can see the rain dancing all around us. We will keep a 20 percent chance of rain around today and tomorrow. If we don’t get get any in the next couple of days you can see that our area gets drier the first of next week.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with southeast winds at 12 mph and seas at 3 feet southside. Today winds will turn more to the east and get a bit stronger, 15 mph by noon and 20 mph by evening with seas getting up to 4 feet. Overnight winds will be 25-30 mph and seas up to 6 feet southside. Tomorrow will be windy, with east winds 20-25 mph and seas 5 feet. Things calm a bit Friday with east winds 15-20 mph and seas 3-4 feet.
It was great to see Ikigai by Robby Molina and Melissa Dixon supporting the public hospital at Roa Fest. From the looks of things, lots of money was raised. It was truly a community effort.
Low tide will be pretty low at 1 p.m. Have a great Wednesday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Cesar Gonzalez Sr. taken from Pristine Bay looking east. We don’t get many nighttime photos of clouds, but I like this one because it shows first light of dawn coming through wispy cirrus clouds that have no rain.
This is the infrared satellite image, which gives the higher, colder cloud tops colors leading from blue to red. When I first started looking at these satellite images I was fooled into thinking the whole red mass held rain, but in these large cumulus clouds systems, the rain is usually only in the highest cloud tops. We’ve spent a lot of dry time under the lower cloud tops.
Here’s the path of what should be Tropical Storm Alberto. It won’t directly affect our weather, but it might indirectly drag some moisture over us.
This video shows why we have hope for rain tomorrow into tomorrow night. As what should be Tropical Storm Alberto moves ashore in northern Mexico, moisture shown as the X will be dragged behind it over us. It gives us hope, but it’s not a sure thing. The GFS and Euro, usually two of the more reliable computers, say this will happen. The German ICON and the Canadian model keep us drier. Let’s hope it happens, because the weekend into early next week looks dry.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with 15 mph southeast winds and seas around 3 feet south side. As we get to midday that should calm to 10 mph east winds and 2 foot seas. Tomorrow morning will be again 15 mph southeast winds and 3 foot seas south side, but Wednesday evening through Friday morning will be quite a bit windier, with southeast winds 20-25 mph and seas 4-5 feet.
No matter what the sea conditions it’s always a great time to book your excursion with Jolly Roger. They will find the best spot to go in the water and a great time on the boat as well.
Low tide is just after noon. By the way, the airport hit 95 degrees (35C) yesterday. That’s the hottest I’ve seen in a long time. Have a great Tuesday!
Welcome to Roatan Weather 