July 9, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Today’s Photo of the Day comes from Brandi Conway and was taken from Infinity Bay. It shows cumulus clouds on the horizon at sunset. We had some morning cumulus clouds today bringing east side rains around 4 a.m. Those clouds should clear out and we should be mostly sunny and windy for the afternoon.

On the satellite from 4:30 to 6:30 a.m. you can see the rain clouds passing over the islands. You will also notice that the area around us was mostly clear, so we were quite fortunate.

Here’s the rainfall map. This will be the pattern this week. If we are fortunate we will get a morning shower, otherwise we will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny.

The recent rains have been beneficial for sea temperature. Our one working temperature buoy is on the north side near Big Bight and is now down to 29.1 degrees Celsius (84.4F). It is just over our normal hottest water temperature, but a full degree Celsius below where we were June 14 at 30.4C (86.7F). You will remember that last year we made it to 90 degree water and that was very bad for coral bleaching. We are now under the bleaching threshold. Let’s hope we stay there. Yesterday at the airport we only made it to 87F (30.5C) and even the heat index was under 100F (37.8C). If we can keep these morning showers around, it will keep our temps from getting too unbearable.

Yesterday we had a visitor on Jonesville Point, a macaw that had gotten away from its owner. Sherri Visker and Roatan Operation Animal Rescue were very helpful in knowing what to do. I don’t know where I would turn if they weren’t on the island. It’s a good reminder to reach out with support and a great way to support them is to buy Roatan Pets food, because 10 percent of their proceeds goes to ROAR.

High and low tides should be quite moderate today. Have a great Tuesday!

July 8, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our Photo of the Day comes from Claire Staffa and a spectacular Luna Beach sunset. A couple of things surprised me yesterday. The Storm Behind Beryl completely fell apart and we didn’t get evening rains and the easterly trade winds returned yesterday afternoon. Those winds will last through the week and we do have some storms nearing Guanaja at 7 a.m.

On satellite we can see a complex of storms nearing Guanaja at 7 a.m. The Garcias on the south side of the big island of Guanaja have gotten .07 of an inch. These storms will give us some rain chances this morning, after which we should have partly cloudy skies. The rest of the week we will have about a 30 percent chance of rain each day, mostly in the mornings.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We awake to 20 mph winds and 4 foot seas on the south side of the east Roatan. Utila is calm this morning, but even Utila will get trade winds later today. Most of this week we will have east winds 15-25 mph and seas 3-4 feet south side.

Our Photo of the Month of July will win a roundtrip on Galaxy Wave to Guanaja. If you want to visit Guanaja for a weekend, now is the time to start planning. I think it is sad so many Roatanians have never been to our easternmost island. You owe it to yourself to visit an island that still retains a little more of the pre-tourist flavor of the Bay Islands.

Low tide is 4:30 p.m. Keep the folks in Houston dealing with Beryl in your thoughts and prayers. Have a great week!

Rainfall for June 2024

In all the excitement over Hurricane Beryl I almost forgot to post rainfall for next month. Thanks to Trish Symons for the reminder. Consistency is important in recording rainfall, so I’m continuing to use the rainfall total in Sandy Bay, though some other locations got more rain toward the end of June. We’re officially recording .94 of an inch, continuing the drought that plagued us with less than two inches through four months. Locations on the east end generally got 2-3 inches of rain.

We’re already doing better in July with over 2 inches recorded this week. July is typically our wettest month outside of rainy season and, while we don’t have big storms on the horizon, persistent chances of scattered showers remain in the forecast, so I am hopeful we will get over 5 inches this month.

July 7, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our Photo of the Day comes from Elizabeth Leiva on Lucy Point and shows some of the cumulus clouds that have brought us rain the past few days. We are dealing with some rain this morning and have a chance for more this evening, though as we get into next week we should start seeing less rain.

Don’t forget the five photos with the most likes in the Facebook group will compete for a free Galaxy Wave round trip to Guanaja.

Most of us have gotten some rain since midnight on top of what we got yesterday. The big winner today is West Bay which was getting a shower with over an inch of rain as I was writing this around 6:45 a.m.

Here is the 6:45 a.m. satellite. The clouds are moving west/southwest, so it looks like most of us should start clearing out for the morning, though a chance of showers persists.

I drew an arrow to the core of The Storm Behind Beryl, which never amounted to anything more than scattered storms. The GFS thinks that even that will fall apart, but if it holds together, it should give us some rain this evening. After that, as we look to next week, we will have mostly 30 percent chances of rain, mostly in the morning times and lots of sun and heat.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We have one more day of quite calm conditions with east winds 7-12 mph and seas 1-2 feet. Tomorrow and Tuesday we are back to east winds 20-25 mph and seas 3-4 feet south side.

If it’s Sunday it must be Lobster Day at Ikigai by Robby Molina. And don’t forget Ikigai is one of the few gourmet restaurants on the island to be open on Mondays as well.

Lowest tide is 3:50 p.m. Have a great Sunday!

July 6, 2024

After Beryl has passed well into the Gulf of Mexico, we are ready to start our photo contest for the month of July, with a free round-trip on the Galaxy Wave to Guanaja as the prize. We start with an appropriate rainbow taken by Mirka Štekláčová from Czech Village looking to the south of Oakridge. We’ve had a few showers around this morning, but those should decrease as we get toward midday and we will have quite calm conditions this weekend. Chances of rain are pretty good tomorrow and next week looks drier, with easterly trade winds picking up. More in comments.
As you can see on satellite, we have a dying storm moving in from the east, so this morning there will be a small chance of a shower. Our weather is humid and unsettled, so this afternoon into tonight there is a 40 percent chance of rain. Tomorrow there will be a scattered showers as our Storm Behind Beryl moves in. I would say we have a good chance at another inch of rain around the island, especially tomorrow.

This morning Sandy Bay picked up around a quarter of an inch.

I labeled the little storm cloud that brought rain to Sandy Bay this morning. There is a large mass of clouds to our east, but the part closest to us doesn’t have much rain in it, but to the east there is still a nice thunderstorm. We will see if it can stay alive long enough to make it here in a few hours.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: This will be a very calm weekend, with east/northeast winds 5-10 mph and seas 1-2 feet, more toward 1 foot tomorrow, so if you’re willing to dodge a few showers, a great weekend to be on the sea. Starting Monday we will pick up our 15-20 mph east winds again, with 3-4 foot seas south side.

Low tide is 3:10 p.m. Have a great weekend!

July 5, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Hurricane Beryl moved a little north of predictions and hit the island of Cozumel dead on. It had around 115 mph winds when it hit there, and is now entering the mainland of Yucatan at 100 mph. It is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and threaten Deep South Texas. As for us, all of us got a little rain out of Beryl, mostly just under an inch, though Sandy Bay got around 2 inches. Winds and seas should calm today through the weekend. There is a storm popping up north of Utila. We’ll see if it grows, but right now we’ll keep a small chance of rain through the morning, mostly dry this afternoon through tomorrow, and we hope the Storm Behind Beryl brings us Sunday afternoon rains.

Here are the rainfall totals. Guanaja and Utila have been dry this morning, but they got in on the fun yesterday.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the morning with northwest winds 10-15 mph and seas 4 feet north side. Winds will get quite calm by midday, though seas on the north side will stay choppy, around 3 feet most of today. The weekend looks quite calm for both wind and sea. Easterly trade winds return Monday into next week.

Here is the Storm Behind Beryl. The NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center has dropped any expectation it will turn into a tropical storm, but it still brings us hope for rain, especially Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

Many thanks to all who have contributed at buymeacoffee.com/roatan and patreon.com/roatanweather, but thanks especially for the kind comments. We try to give an honest forecast without being too extreme either way. Weather is never certain, but there are things that are likely and things that are unlikely and during this hurricane season we want to be prepared. If you buy meat at Carniceria Rosita or dine at Ikigai or take a Jolly Roger excursion or ride the Galaxy Wave or buy your pet Roatan Pets food, let them know you heard about them here.

Low tide is 2:30 p.m. Have a great Friday.


July 4, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. you would be forgiven for thinking that the storm you are looking at is three storms. This is the degradation of Hurricane Beryl due to shear that we’ve been talking about all week. The actual center of the storm is the part southwest of George Town, Grand Cayman and according to the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center it is still packing winds of 120 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane. It is pushing some moisture in front of it, though it doesn’t have classic hurricane bands. This will give us a chance of showers throughout today into tonight. Roatan Weather supporter Megan Mitchell sent me a text yesterday about how the calm before the storm is a real thing. We have that this morning. Outside my window on the south side things look flat calm. Winds should get up to 10-15 mph from the west later today and north side seas getting up to 6 feet tomorrow morning.

Many of us got a third of an inch from a storm that passed through around 1 a.m. I hope we get some more rain out of Beryl, but most of the models doubt we will get more than an inch more rain, if that much.

This morning’s path for Hurricane Beryl is what we’ve been expected the past several day. It should weaken to probably a Category 1 before striking south of Cancun in Yucatan. Our best chances of rain will come late evening and overnight.

Friday winds and seas will calm throughout the day and winds will turn back to the east. Saturday and Sunday look quite calm.

Our storm behind Beryl is still unlikely to form into anything, but could give us a better chance of showers, especially Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

Many cruise ships were rerouted this week, but next week looks like business as usual, with nothing in the tropics to worry about. If you are planning your cruise excursions next week, check out those offered by Jolly Roger Roatan.

Low tide is 2 p.m. Have a great Thursday.

July 3, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Hurricane Beryl is about to strike Jamaica this afternoon and I’m afraid Kingston will take a direct hit from its 145 mph winds. Beryl is somewhat weaker than it was at its peak of 165 mph. We will start seeing minor effects this afternoon with a switch in our winds to the northeast around 15 mph. Tonight and tomorrow morning looks quite calm. What happens during the day tomorrow has a lot to do with exactly where Beryl passes to our north and how weak it gets.

Let’s start by taking a look at Beryl. You will notice it is hard to see an eye anymore. This is due to the wind shear we have been talking about for quite awhile, but the storm has been holding up remarkably well. That will be bad news for Jamaica today, especially Kingston.

Let’s talk about exactly where the storm is going. This is the GFS forecast for 8 p.m. tomorrow. It has the center of the storm moving south of Cozumel/Cancun. You will notice the high winds are mostly on the north side of the storm. If this happens, our winds will be from the west but fairly light, maybe 10 mph. Our rainfall will also be less, maybe a quarter to half an inch.

This is the Euro for midnight tomorrow night. It has the storm slightly further south and slightly stronger. If this happens, we will have west winds at 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. Seas tomorrow night and Friday morning would be around 6 feet, especially on the north and west sides. The Euro gives us about an inch of rain, maybe a little more.

So to summarize the forecast, partly cloudy today with increasing clouds into the evening. Scattered showers tonight through early Friday morning. There may be periods of 30 mph winds, especially tomorrow night. Most of Friday should be dry.

I made fun of the storm behind Beryl yesterday, but it actually looks better today. The NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center still gives it only a 20 percent chance of forming, but a lot of models are picking up on it. If it continues to survive, there is a possibility it could give us a better chance of rain Sunday into Monday.

I want to thank those who have reached out with words of appreciation for our service and for several coffees I have gotten at buymeacoffee.com/roatan. I also want to mention that any businesses who would like to sponsor at the $50 a month level, WhatsApp me at 94754406 for details.

We have quite a low tide at 2:10 p.m. and we are nearing new moon stage tonight. Have a great Wednesday!

July 2, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. We are at a very strange moment in our relationship with Hurricane Beryl. It is a Category 5 monster south of Puerto Rico, heading into our section of the Western Caribbean, but it is also forecast to go north of us and weaken considerably.

In a lot of ways it is hard to believe the forecasts of weakening, but the reason has to do with this map. There is a solid line of wind shear (winds blowing the opposite direction) that promise to try to tear this storm apart. Can it beat back the shear? Maybe.

As it stands, here are the headlines for us.

  1. Any effects on us should come overnight Thursday into early Friday morning.
  2. The main effects should be some scattered showers Thursday night, mild westerly winds and seas on the north and west sides around 5-6 feet.

Here is the current forecast cone. We are safely south of it. We currently have a 20 percent chance of seeing tropical storm force winds (39 mph) and only a 2 percent chance of hurricane force (74 mph).

This is the Euro wave map for around 7 a.m. Friday. This would be the time of the first ferry to the mainland and we’re seeing 6-7 foot waves north side, so there is a real possibility the morning ferries are canceled that day. I would imagine most flights except the ones to Belize can make it, they will just have to fly around the storm.

The potential storm behind Beryl no longer looks like it will make it to a tropical system. It MAY bring us a better chance of rain on Sunday.

This morning a storm has brought about a half inch to Guanaja. It doesn’t look like it has a lot of juice left, so we will keep a small chance of rain this morning, but it isn’t likely. Rain chance will remain fairly low until we get to Thursday night Friday morning, and even then we may be disappointed. Right now the Euro is giving us about an inch.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Winds today will remain from the east around 20 mph and seas around 3 feet. Tomorrow they will be 10-15 mph and seas 2 feet, and winds will take a turn to the northeast in the afternoon. Thursday is the calm before the storm with northeast winds around 10 mph and seas around 2 feet northside.

We’re still hoping for some rain Friday morning, and there’s nothing that goes better on a cool, rainy day than stewing meat from Carniceria Rosita in a nice beef stew.

Low tide is 12:30 p.m. If you enjoy these forecasts, please support us at patreon.com/roatanweather and buymeacoffee.com/roatan.

July 1, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. I’m going to suspend the photo of the day until the storm threat has passed, but later this morning I will post the poll so you can vote on June’s photo of the month.

The headlines today:

Hurricane Beryl will pass through Grenada within a couple of hours as a category 4.

The latest Euro shows the storm coming closer to us, but only as a tropical storm.

The GFS and ICON continue to show it going further north, away from us, as well as weakening.

Target time for Beryl’s closest pass at the islands is Thursday night.

Very briefly, let’s talk about our current weather. On satellite we can see some showers that are moving through Guanaja at 6:30 a.m. They have picked up around a quarter of an inch. These clouds are moving toward the south. It is possible that Roatan, especially the east side, could see chances of showers in the 7-8 a.m. time period. As for the rest of the day, the rain chance will be around 20 percent and skies will be partly cloudy.
Tomorrow chances will be 30 percent and Wednesday 40 percent.
We have east winds 25 mph and seas 4 feet on the southside. As the day goes on we should calm to 15-20 mph and 2-3 feet. Tomorrow winds will be 15-20 mph and seas 2-3 feet. As we get into Wednesday and Thursday morning, seas should be even calmer, as often happens when a storm approaches. Seas should be quite wavy Thursday evening into night, even if the storm is further away, due to swell.

One of the changes this morning is that the Euro is pushing the storm further south. This is a forecast of the spin in the atmosphere and helps us see the center of the storm better. You will see it shows the center of the storm moving just north of us. in the middle of Thursday night

The Euro also shows the storm decreasing rapidly, so it only makes it a tropical storm as it passes north of us Thursday night.

The GFS and ICON both show the storm moving further north, hitting around Cancun. This would be better for us obviously.

Here are the wind chances according to the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center. They are giving Guanaja and Roatan a 30-40 percent chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds. We also have a 9 percent chance of experiencing hurricane force (74 mph) winds. Peak wind time will be Thursday evening into Thursday night.

Potential Tropical Storm Debby is still running behind Beryl. It has not yet organized and the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center has lowered the probability to 60 percent chance that it gets organized. If it does, it should follow behind Beryl and could impact us Sunday, but likely as a tropical storm or just a tropical wave.

If you are a potential cruiser, your cruise line will make sure that your safety is a priority. I expect some changes in cruise schedules this week, if only because the storm in between the US and Roatan. If your ship makes it here, Jolly Roger Roatan will make sure you have the safest, most fun excursion possible.

Lowest tide is 11:30 a.m. If you would like to support our work here, go to patreon.com/roatanweather or buymeacoffee.com/roatan. Have a great, and a safe, week.