Good morning Bay Islands. This morning’s photo of the day comes from Josh Gravitt and shows a full rainbow over the Black Pearl Golf Course in Pristine Bay. Josh assures me that he didn’t find a hole in one at the end of the rainbow. Our rain chances are a bit lower today, but come back tonight and tomorrow morning.

This morning’s satellite shows a big complex of storms over Belize, but nothing much here. Today looks mostly sunny and dry. Tonight and tomorrow morning scattered showers and storms return and we will have that cycle most of this week, with a low chance of an isolated shower during the daytime and better chances overnight and in the early morning.

I want to talk a little about the nature of tropical weather. This satellite image is throughout the day on Wednesday. You will remember Wednesday produced the storm that created the waterspout that was our photo of the day Thursday. It was produced on a day that was clear almost everywhere in our part of the Caribbean, but around midday you can see one burst of yellowish orange that was this storm that also poured between 1-2 inches of rain on the west side.

Compare that with Thursday night’s satellite. There are lots of storm clouds around, but especially to the east of Guanaja. In the end, the islands got no rain from these storms. We see these storms moving west and weakening as they go, then reforming to the east of Guanaja and continuing the pattern. One thing I’ve learned about large complexes of storms is that unless you are right in the strongest part, where the cloud tops are the highest (represented by red on infrared satellite) you probably aren’t getting any rain.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: This morning we are having one of the windier mornings we’ve had in awhile, with 15-20 mph east winds and seas around 3 feet southside. We will keep those winds and seas today, even a little breezier this evening with east winds 17-22 mph. Tomorrow and the week ahead look calmer, with east winds 10-15 mph and seas 2 feet southside.

It’s looking pretty certain that a tropical storm will threaten Puerto Rico midweek, but most of the models say this system will then turn out to sea. This is no threat to us.

High and low tides are hardly noticeable. Have a great weekend!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Clyde Meyer, who captured this impressive waterspout yesterday afternoon in Brick Bay. I was actually driving by at the moment and saw my second waterspout in six years here. This was a rogue storm that formed suddenly yesterday afternoon, the kind of thing that can happen in the tropics. I always say waterspouts are generally harmless, but I guess if you were right under this one you would have gotten shaken up a little, judging from the way it stirred up the water at its base.

Here’s the rain totals from yesterday. Very little rain fell on the east side. The north side of the big island of Guanaja got .18 of an inch and no rain was recorded on Utila.

Here is the satellite from 6:30 a.m. We see a lot of showers and storms to our east moving toward us as our tropical wave nears. We should expect to see storms increase in the afternoon and evening, so keep an eye out for lightning and locally windy conditions in squalls.
Rain may linger into tomorrow morning, but the rain chances during the day tomorrow look a little less, around 30 percent with mostly cloudy skies.
Tomorrow night into Saturday morning rain chances are 50 percent, but go back down to 20 percent midday and afternoon on Saturday.
Sunday into next week there will be scattered showers around, 40 percent chances each day.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to a 7 mph east breeze and seas 1-2 feet southside. Today looks like a quite calm day, except that squalls and quickly create gusty winds and stormy seas, so keep an eye open.

Tomorrow winds will generally be from the east 10-15 mph and seas 2-3 feet southside.

Sunday will be a bit breezier, with east winds 15-20 mph and seas around 3 feet southside.

Next week looks quite calm for the most part, so a great time to be on the sea if you can dodge the showers.

I don’t know about you, but I get excited just looking at the menu at Ikigai by Robby Molina in French Harbour. Between the risottos and pad thai dishes, Jamaican pasta and Korean and Japanese tacos, I don’t think I’ve been in a fusion restaurant this good in Atlanta or Dallas.

High and low tides continue to be mild.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to a 7 mph east breeze and seas 1-2 feet southside. Today looks like a quite calm day, except that squalls and quickly create gusty winds and stormy seas, so keep an eye open.
Tomorrow winds will generally be from the east 10-15 mph and seas 2-3 feet southside.
Sunday will be a bit breezier, with east winds 15-20 mph and seas around 3 feet southside.
Next week looks quite calm for the most part, so a great time to be on the sea if you can dodge the showers.

I wanted to say something very briefly. There is a tropical wave coming off the west coast of Africa that all three computers (GFS, Euro and ICON) turn into a tropical storm/hurricane next week. The National Hurricane Center hasn’t identified it yet, but all three models have it going well north of us. We will keep an eye on it.

Good morning Bay Islands. This morning’s photo of the day comes from Erin Maria who was visiting West End from Northern Ireland when she captured this man contemplating a Roatan sunset. We should have another nice day today and increasing clouds tomorrow as our tropical wave nears. The National Hurricane Center has taken us out of any risk for tropical storm development, so that is good news.

You can clearly see the tropical wave in the Caribbean east of Nicaragua. Today will be mostly sunny with only a very small chance of a passing shower.
Tomorrow we will have increasing clouds and an increasing chance of rain as we get into the evening and overnight hours.
Right now, tomorrow night into Friday morning looks like our best chance of rain.
Friday into the weekend we will have 30 percent chances of rain.
Next week it looks like 40 percent chances each day as we enter a period with lots of scattered showers.

You can see that the National Hurricane Center has taken us out of any risk of tropical storm development and the Gulf of Mexico only has a 10 percent chance.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to east winds 5 mph and seas 2 feet southside. We will remain calm today with seas 1-2 feet. Tomorrow will also be calm, but watch out for squalls tomorrow afternoon and night that can whip up the seas. This weekend we should have east winds 15-20 mph and seas 2-3 feet south side and next week looks quite calm again.

I’m going to be my own sponsor today. I’m selling my 2012 Ford Escape.
It has a new paint job and undercarriage rust protection
New suspension
Cold AC
127,000 miles
I’m asking 175,000 lempiras ($7,000) negotiable. I’ll be heading toward Coxen Hole this afternoon if anyone wants to take a look.

High and low tides are quite mild. Have a great Wednesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Lisa Cox. Her sunset was taken in Sandy Bay. We will continue to have gorgeous sunsets today and tomorrow with mostly sunny skies an only a slight chance of an overnight shower. Our tropical wave will pass through on Friday, but it is highly unlikely to develop into anything close to a tropical depression by then.

On satellite we can see that we have clear skies this morning, but we also see the tropical wave right now north of the Colombian coast. We should see increasing clouds Thursday. The best chance of rain will come Thursday night into Friday morning and Friday night into Saturday morning.

In the long-range forecast the weekend looks a little drier, but next week looks like another week with lots of scattered showers.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to 10 mph east winds and 2 foot seas. Those may calm a little as we get toward midday. Wednesday and Thursday look like calm days. Friday we will have moderate winds at 15 mph, stronger when we get a squall. The weekend into next week looks fairly calm as well.

With a couple of gorgeous days coming up, it will be a great time for outdoor grilling, and no place has higher quality meat on the island than the two locations of Carniceria Rosita — Coxen Hole and French Harbour.

Low tide is 3:50 p.m., but should be pretty mild. Have a great Tuesday.

Good morning Bay Islands. We have a gorgeous sunset sent to us by Guadalupe Alvarez Montserrat as our photo of the day. I think that might be a mermaid in the front of the photo. We have three nice days coming up and then, probably Friday, a tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center has identified as an area for investigation.

We have clear skies overhead at 7 a.m. and a few popcorn clouds to the east of Guanaja. They are moving west, but it is unlikely they will make it to the islands with any rain. This afternoon we will be partly cloudy and we will have a 20 percent chance of an evening shower.

Tuesday and Wednesday look very similar, as does Thursday, except Thursday we should have increasing clouds as the tropical wave gets closer and gives us a good chance at a rainy Friday and perhaps Saturday morning.

Here is the map from the National Hurricane Center. It shows a 30 percent chance of tropical development (at least a tropical depression) over the next 7 days. The computer models aren’t as strong on this storm as they were two days ago when I did the video on it, but we should still keep an eye on it.

The arrow points to where the storms are now, crossing over the Lesser Antillies.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to 10 mph east winds and 2 foot seas south side. Winds should stay around there throughout today, increasing to 15-20 mph east winds and 3 foot seas overnight. Tuesday we will have 15 mph east winds and 2 foot seas. Wednesday and Thursday look quite calm. What happens Friday depends on how the storm develops.

With calm seas it is a great week to take advantage of the special Galaxy Wave is still running — just $25 each way to La Ceiba. Get your shopping and medical visits done before the possible storm comes on Friday.

Low tide is 3:15 p.m. Have a great week!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Sue Jensen in Lucy Point and shows the calm bay right outside her house. Today we will enjoy a picture perfect Bay Islands day with calm winds and seas and no rain. Get out there in a boat, with a fishing pole, with a snorkel or with dive gear and enjoy it!

This is as clear as I’ve seen our satellite in a month. There are very few clouds out there and the winds are calm, so it will be a hot day. The airport had a high of 86 (30C) yesterday, but today we could easily get to 90 (32C).
Rain chances are quite low tomorrow and maybe 20 percent Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday we will have increasing clouds and maybe a rainy day on Friday.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Today will be a dead calm day. Tomorrow we have southeast winds 10-15 mph and seas 1-2 feet southside. Tuesday winds will be from the east at 15 mph and 2 foot seas. Wednesday and Thursday look quite calm, perhaps the calm before the storm that may be coming Friday.

I did a video yesterday about the storm right now due north of Surinam in South America. It is heading west and will head into the Caribbean on Monday. Right now the models show it coming south, hitting the coast of Nicaragua Thursday and sweeping our way on Friday. This is a map of vorticity, the spin in the upper atmosphere. Right now it isn’t expected to become a tropical storm, but these things can change, so we’ll keep an eye on it.

If it’s Sunday, it must be Lobster Day at Ikigai by Robby Molina in French Harbour. It’s the best lobster deal on the island and Melissa Dixon will take good care of you and make sure that you get the experience you’ve been craving.

Low tide is 2:30 p.m. and tonight will be dark with no moon. Have a great Sunday!

We had a rainy July. Or at least it feels that way. The 6.59 inches from Sandy Bay we are putting in the record book is only about an inch above normal. Six and a half inches was about average across the island, though some locations including Guanaja got nearly 10. Strangely, the only working station on Utila only recorded 2.38 inches. That sounds low and makes me suspect some sort of malfunction, but you guys on Utila let me know what you think in comments.

Looking ahead to August, on average we start getting a bit drier at 4.4 inches on average. As far as the initial forecast goes, it looks like the first two weeks will be similar to July, so it is possible that we will be above normal again. August is also the first month we really start worrying about the tropics on the Bay Islands (Beryl was a very early storm to come close to us).

I did a video Tropical Update. There is an area in the Atlantic northeast of French Guyana that we should keep an eye on. If it develops, next Friday and Saturday would be days to watch out for.

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Jeffrey Hill who, ironically, lives up the hill from me in Jonesville Point. This was a waterspout yesterday morning that was the first waterspout I had actually seen in my five and a half years in Roatan.
We have some showers around this morning. The dry conditions we’ve been expecting are coming, they are just coming later than we thought. Tonight through tomorrow and most of Monday should be dry and, at least for the evening and tomorrow, fairly calm.

This morning you probably heard some thunder, especially on the west side. The strongest storms are moving south away from the island at 7:30 a.m., but a few stubborn clouds are hanging on. We will keep a chance of showers through the morning hours, but we should have a very low chance of rain this afternoon and evening and near zero chances tonight and tomorrow. Chance of rain Monday is around 20 percent and 30 percent Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances look better for Thursday into next Saturday.

Here are rain totals since midnight. Those storms kind of danced around West Bay and West End, giving them minimal rain.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to 10-15 mph WEST winds. That’s the first time I’ve said that in a long time. Those winds are giving us 2 foot seas north and west sides. This afternoon through tomorrow those winds should calm down and I’m still looking for near flat calm conditions the rest of the weekend.
Winds will get back to 15 mph from the east/southeast on Monday and seas 2-3 feet, but next week winds and seas look very moderate to calm some days.

If you are a cruiser planning your excursion, the seas will be awesome, any showers should be brief and Jolly Roger Roatan will give you the best time possible and get you back on ship on time.

Low tide is 2:20 p.m. and we are getting close to new moon phase. Have a great weekend!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day today comes from Martin Fickinger, an actual professional photographer with VickiVision. He does weddings and all sorts of special events. This photo catches a nice storm just off the coast of Sandy Bay. We won’t have many storms to worry about this weekend.

On satellite at 6:30 a.m. we see a few popcorn clouds, especially to the southeast of Oakridge. It is possible some of us will see a small shower this morning, but it won’t amount to much. Otherwise we should be partly cloudy. Through the weekend rain chances will be fairly low. Today we will have a 30 percent chance of seeing a shower, tonight there will be a 40 percent chance of a thundershower. Over the weekend, rain chances will be 20 percent each day.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: A big story this weekend will be calm winds and seas. We wake up to winds 0-5 mph and seas around 2 feet. Winds will be light and variable all weekend and seas mostly around 1 foot. For weeks I’ve been saying all the winds have been from the east, but what little wind we get this weekend will often be from the north or west, so when we get 1-2 foot seas, that will also be on the north side. But all in all a great weekend for boating, diving and snorkeling.

Congratulations to the winner of the July Photo of the Month contest, Audrey Imfeld, who wins a roundtrip ticket to Guanaja on Galaxy Wave. This will be a great weekend to take the ferry with calm seas around the island.

Don’t forget to send your photos to bookmybio@gmail.com so they come in with high resolution. Include name of photographer and location. Winner get a free dental cleaning at Dilbert-Thompson Dental Clinic in French Harbour.

Low tide is 2 p.m. Have a great Friday!