Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Alina Solorzano and shows a beautiful sunset on the east end of the big island. We had a pretty quiet night, except for Utila which had a thundershower just after midnight that brought a half inch to the weather station near the airport.
We should have a pretty quiet weekend with winds getting a little breezier.

At 7 a.m. we have a small shower to the southwest of Guanaja, but it doesn’t seem to be moving much. We should be partly cloudy to mostly sunny this weekend with a very low chance of an overnight or early morning shower. As we get into early next week, overnight rain chances will go up to around 30 percent each night.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Winds this morning are from the east 10-15 mph and seas around 3 feet southside. Winds will calm midday to 5-10 mph and seas around 2 feet. Tonight winds pick up to 15-20 mph and seas 3-4 feet. Sunday will be windier than today, with east winds 15 mph and seas 3 feet. This week ahead will be slightly windier than last week was, but all in all not too bad.

Tuesday is Children’s Day and Ikigai by Robby Molina has a great offer to celebrate the children in your school or family. Call at 9606-1668 for details.

High and low tides continue to be mild. Have a great weekend!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day is a double rainbow extending from Jonesville over to Jonesville Point from Alex Fleig. If we don’t see rainbows over the next 24 hours, it will be because we don’t have enough sunlight as clouds and showers from our tropical wave pass over us. After tomorrow morning, rain should lessen.

On our radar this morning at 7:30 we can see the thundershowers we had this morning moving to our west, while another group of storms moves in from our east. These storms should weaken as the morning goes on, but there will be a chance of rain all day under mostly cloudy skies. Tonight there is a 70 percent chance of showers and thundershowers that will last through tomorrow morning. Starting tomorrow afternoon, we should go back to our cycle of 40 percent chances of rain overnights and early mornings and partly cloudy skies middays.

Here are our rain totals from midnight to 7:30 a.m. today.

The National Hurricane Center took us out of any chance of a tropical storm. The wave that is passing over us has a 30 percent chance of doing something in the Gulf of Mexico. The other three X’s on this map are not a threat for us, but we can see the tropics are getting a little more active as we move into September.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to east winds 5-10 mph and seas 2-3 feet. Seas should be around 2 feet today, but watch out for winds and seas during thunderstorms. Tomorrow and Saturday winds and seas look quite calm. As we get into next week, things will get a bit windier at 15-20 mph east winds and 3 foot seas south side.

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Tides continue to be mild. Have a great Thursday and stay dry.

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Gaby Adrian and shows sunrise over Politilly.
If you are in Politilly this morning you are probably seeing clouds off to your east as a shower moves in. Showers will increase over the next couple of days as our tropical wave moves in, but it is VERY unlikely it will turn into anything like a tropical storm.

At 7 a.m. we can see some showers and thundershowers moving in from the east. There’s a good chance many of us will see a shower during the morning hours today. Today, tomorrow and Friday we will have about a 60 percent chance of showers and thundershowers each day.

Here’s the National Hurricane Center map of the storm. You will notice it is yellow, indicating the chance of it turning into a tropical storm is down to 30 percent, and even that is likely after to moves past us into the Gulf of Mexico.
Here is the exact wording of their forecast: Some development is possible late this week when the
wave slows down over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or early next
week over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

• Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.

The zero percent chance over the next two days is good for us. It means it is highly unlikely to develop near us. Even so, expect quite a bit of showers around the next three days, even during the day. Hopefully this cools us down. The waters have been getting back up to 86 degree (30C) which is the threshold for coral bleaching.

The arrow points to the center of the tropical wave just south of Jamaica.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to east winds 10-15 mph and seas up to 3 feet southside. That should calm to 5-10 mph and 2 feet later today. Winds still look fairly calm the next three days, but watch out for gusty winds in squalls.

Our critters need a shiny, healthy coat during bad weather. Make sure your doggie has the healthiest fur on the island by contacting Mitch Cummins and having him mix up a batch of Roatan Pets food for your good boy.

Our tides continue to run high. Have a great Wednesday!

August was another pretty good month for us. As usual, we will put Sandy Bay’s 5.66 inches in the record books and it is about average for the island, especially the west side. Most locations on the east side got 2-3 inches. Guanaja (7.72 inches) and Utila (10.1) were big winners in the rain category. This makes two straight months of above average rainfall, but it still doesn’t make up for the major drought we suffered early in the year.

September is the last month before wet season and we average just under 5 inches in September. I usually recommend September as the best month to visit the island, with smaller crowds, calm winds and not a lot of rain. With this tropical wave we’re starting off wet, and the long-range forecast shows typical rain chances the first week or so after the wave passes, so hopefully we continue to fill the cisterns.

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Jacy Richards who caught this sunset on a walk between Punta Blanca and Punta Gorda.

We are still keeping an eye on the system that is located due north of the of Colombia/Venezuela border. Chances are good this means nothing more than showers Thursday night into Friday, but the GFS is forecasting a bit more wind and rain, though still nothing terribly serious for the islands.

Let’s start with the near-term forecast. Many of us got a shower last night around 10 p.m., with Utila, Guanaja and the west side of Roatan getting about a third of an inch and the east side getting about a tenth. On satellite this morning we can see some showers to our east. As usual this time of morning they are weakening, but we will keep a small chance of a shower through the morning. Today through Thursday we will continue to have small chances of rain overnight and early morning and winds quite mild, 5-10 mph from the east with seas 1-2 feet.

This is the National Hurricane Center forecast. The X on the left is the one we are worried about. The two on the right, if they develop, will go north. The one on the left STILL has a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression, which means we are no closer to knowing what will happen than we were yesterday.

The most interesting possibility is the one from the US GFS. It shows the wave hitting us Thursday night with one round of showers, then reforming to our north this weekend and possibly becoming a tropical storm to our northwest before moving into Belize.

The ICON shows the storm going to our north as a fairly weak tropical depression, perhaps a tropical storm, but giving us minimal effects.

The Euro continues to show just a wave of showers for Thursday night into Friday.

If you are worried about travel plans, you can trust the folks at the Galaxy Wave. If things get too bad, they will cancel and you can use your ticket for another trip. Today through Thursday, though, it looks like smooth sailing.

The most likely outcome seems to be scattered showers Thursday night into Friday and maybe continuing into the weekend. Our winds may pick up a bit Thursday into the weekend, but right now it looks like we’re only looking for winds around 20 mph. But because this area is the area that it could strengthen, we still need to watch for rapid intensification. It is unlikely it will strengthen into a hurricane, but you can never say never. Just ask the folks in Puerta Vallarta.

Tides continue to run on the high side. Have a great Tuesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. I’m not going to do a photo of the day today because there is slightly more to worry about from our potential tropical storm. The US National Hurricane Center still only gives it a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression. The big change this morning is the US GFS model forecasts this storm to slow down, coming toward the islands on Saturday evening and giving it time to strengthen.

Let’s start with the Euro. This is the best case scenario for us. It shows a tropical wave never really getting any rotation going and just bringing us thundershowers Thursday night into Friday.

Compare that to the GFS forecast. It shows the storm slowing down and not getting here until Saturday evening. That gives it time to strengthen. The bright side is that this forecast only shows the storm becoming a weak tropical storm as the center moves just to our north. This would give us wind gusts around 30 mph and the center of the storm would be around 40 mph. The National Hurricane Center agrees that the Western Caribbean, where we are, has a good atmosphere for a storm to strengthen, and when that happens, how much it intensifies is hard to predict. So keep an eye on this forecast for the next couple of days. If the storm does slow down, we do need to be prepared for a storm this weekend.

The German ICON doesn’t predict it to slow as much as the GFS, but it still has a borderline tropical depression/tropical storm passing just north of us sometime Friday.

Near term forecast. For as much excitement as we have in the tropics, our forecast for the next couple of days is pretty boring. We continue to have a small chance for an overnight or early morning shower, though that hasn’t happened for most of us the last couple of nights. Winds and seas will continue to be mild, coming from the east at 7-12 mph and seas 1-2 feet.

Tides continue to run on the high side as we near new moon. Have a great week!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Island Jay and shows the Icon of the Seas in port at Coxen Hole framed by a map of our lovely island. In three more days we will be voting on the photo of the month for a free dental cleaning at Dilbert-Thompson dental in French Harbour. If you would like to sponsor the September contest, send me a message!
We had a quiet week last night and should have a beautiful day. The big news is a potential hurricane in the Atlantic.

On satellite we can see small shower that in near Guanaja at 6:45 a.m. Neither of our Guanaja stations have shown any rain, but I imagine someone in Guanaja or may just off the island in the sea may have seen a little rain. Like most showers this time of day, this one is dying. We will keep about a 20 percent chance of a shower through the morning, but we will be mostly sunny otherwise. We will continue to have 30 percent rain chances overnights and early mornings, but otherwise should be nice conditions.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to a bit windier conditions than we’ve had the past few days, with east winds around 15 mph and seas around 3 feet southside. We should calm slightly toward midday, but for the next two days we should be around 15 mph east winds and seas 2-3 feet. This weekend we should go back to having calmer conditions during the day, with east winds 5-10 mph

There’s been a big change in the last 24 hours as to how the computer models are viewing the potential for a tropical storm forming near the Lesser Antilles and moving into the northern Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 40 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next seven days.

This is the GFS vorticity model, which lets us see potential spin in the atmosphere. You can see the GFS thinks that the storm will become fairly strong and move through the northern Caribbean and cut across Cuba. The good news for us is that most models think this storm will stay well north of us, but this far out anything is possible. We will keep an eye on it.

I want to send a shout out to the security screening staff at the Roatan airport. We were flying back to the States and had something come up we didn’t know was on the no-fly list. The staff handled it with great professionalism and big thanks also to Juliet, who works on the airport staff who found a solution for us.

Low tide is 12:30 p.m. Have a great Thursday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Steve Cox caught this cruise ship headed out to sea from the Blue Bahia Beach Grill on Sandy Bay.
We had a quiet night, but our chances of overnight showers should start going up, especially tomorrow night. We are also watching the tropics.

On satellite this morning we can see a thundershower east of Guanaja at 6:45 a.m. We will see if it holds together. If it does Guanaja should see some rain around 7:30. We’ll keep a 30 percent chance of a shower through mid-morning, but other than that we should be mostly sunny. Tonight we will have another 30 percent chance of a shower. That chance goes up to 40 percent tomorrow night into Friday morning.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to east winds around 7 mph and seas 1-2 feet. We will continue to have quite calm days 1-2 feet and nights and early mornings with 15 mph east winds and 2-3 foot seas. I always tell folks, September is a great time to visit the island: low crowds, not a lot of rain, and calm waters.

There is still an area in the western Atlantic we are watching for tropical development. Chance is only 20 percent and the Euro computer is getting less certain anything will happen. Not much to worry about here, but we’ll keep an eye on it.

If you are a visitor to the island, and grilling out will be part of your trip, don’t bother with the meat at the BIG GROCERY STORE. Head right over to the custom butchers at Carniceria Rosita in Coxen Hole and French Harbour. You will get the best cuts on the island at the best price and bilingual staff ready to take your order.

Low tide is 11:30 a.m. Have a great Wednesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Joyann Villalta showing sunset over the other side of the island from Calabash.
Most of us had a calmer night last night, though Guanaja got almost a half an inch and Sandy Bay got a small rain shower.
Today looks like another day with a fairly low rain chance, but they go up later in the week.
We also have an area in the tropics we are watching.

At 7 a.m. we have a few popcorn clouds, especially east of Guanaja. These are moving west very slowly, so we will keep a small rain chance for the midmorning, but we should be mostly sunny midday and afternoon. Tonight we have a 30 percent chance of showers, but those overnight and early morning chances go up starting Wednesday night to around 50 percent.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We start the day with northeast breezes around 5 mph and seas 1-2 feet. We will continue to have very mild winds during the day and 1 foot seas and 15 mph east winds and 2 foot seas toward evening.

Here is the area in the tropics we are talking about. It is only a 20 percent chance of anything happening, and if it does, it would be sometime this weekend near the Lesser Antilles. There currently isn’t a specific storm that we are looking at to develop, that is why there is no yellow X on the National Hurricane Center map.

The German ICON and the Euro computer models are picking up on this. The US GFS is not, which is interesting, because the GFS is usually the one that exaggerates storms. We’ll keep an eye on it, but I’m doubtful anything comes of it.

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Low tide is 10:45 a.m. Have a great Tuesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Dian Lynn in West Bay. All of us got some good downpours overnight, with 3 inches in Utila, 3.6 inches in Oakridge. 2.3 West Bay, and 1.4 inches in Guanaja, just to name a few. We will continue to have scattered showers, but they should decrease midday into the afternoon.

At 6:30 a.m. we have a storms to the east of Guanaja, but those are moving to the northwest and weakening. We will keep a chance of scattered showers through the morning but we should have peeks of sunshine through the midday and afternoon, with good chances of showers increasing overnight. Tuesday looks to be a drier day this next week, but otherwise we will continue to have scattered showers, espcially overnight and early mornings. As we start to move into September, things look drier.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to east winds 5-10 mph and seas 1-2 feet. We should continue to stay in that area and the winds and seas for the week ahead look great. Keep in mind that thundershowers can whip up seas quickly.

If it’s Sunday it must be Lobster Day at Ikigai by Robby Molina. Go check out their special and try some of their great side. Susan is a huge fan of their Street Corn appetizer.

Lowest tide is 8 a.m. Have a great Sunday!