Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Dee Martinez. Star light, star bright, it was the first star she saw last night from Anthony’s Key. We’ve been enjoying mostly clear skies, with a few morning clouds around. We should stay dry, with a very small chance of rain today and tomorrow. Rain chances go up to 30 percent Sunday and 40 percent Monday, especially overnights and early mornings. Winds will stay quite calm 5-10 mph and 1 foot seas days and 10-15 mph and 2 foot seas nights.
Tropical Depression number 7 is out there in the Atlantic, but it is about to run into a dry atmosphere with winds that should break it apart, so there’s nothing right now to worry about in the tropics.
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Good morning Bay Islands. This morning’s photo of the day is from Gary Ruebush of a parrot fish that lives in West Bay. I’ve always thought that if parrot fish were less common, we’d all be in awe of them, telling each other when we got to see one. As it is they are as common as crows and that makes it easy to forget what an amazing example of God’s creation they are. Speaking of God’s creation, we have a few beautiful days upcoming with beautiful weather. Rain chances will be very low through the weekend, but there will be about a 20 percent chance of overnight and early morning showers. Starting Monday our rain chances go up to around 40 percent. Today and tomorrow winds will be 15 mph from the east overnights and seas 2-3 feet, calming to 5-10 mph and 1-2 feet middays. This weekend winds and seas get quite calm, down to 5 mph and 1 foot.
Tides continue to be quite mild. Have a great Thursday!
If you are planning your trip to the islands early next week, the winds and seas look marvelous, so it will be a great time to plan your excursion with Jolly Roger Roatan. They will show you a great time with snorkeling, food and drink and are guaranteed to get you back to the ship on time.
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Helen Murphy and shows some nice cumulus clouds in the distance on an otherwise sunny day. We see this a lot on the islands and these clouds are the source of scattered showers. We will see less of these today and tomorrow.
Our satellite is mostly clear at 6:45 a.m. with only a very few popcorn clouds and those are well to our east. Today and tomorrow chances of daytime rain is quite low and only about 20 percent overnight. I know a lot of the young ones who have been practicing their drumming are concerned about the weather Sunday into Monday and there will be a better chance of rain, around 40 percent each day.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up a little windier than we’ve been the past few days, with east winds around 15 mph and seas 2-3 feet. Winds should calm quite a bit midday to around 5 mph and turn a bit to the west, calming our seas to 1-2 feet. We will continue to have that cycle, around 15 mph at night and around 5 mph winds middays.
Yesterday was the annual peak for hurricane season and boy can we see a lot of activity out there. Fortunately none of it threatens us. The tropical wave that passed over us last Thursday is now Hurricane Francine and is slamming into the coast west of New Orleans today. There are several candidates for storms in the Atlantic, but all should go to our north.
We just bought one of those fancy cat water fountains for our Tigre, so we know how picky pets can be. And if you have a picky dog, let Mitch Cummins test out some specialized recipes catered to your pooch’s tastes. I can about guarantee you he will figure out just the right formula to please your furry friends.
Tides continue to run on the high side. Have a great Wednesday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Jack Andros, who took this beautiful night scene from Lawson Rock. You can see the stars shining brightly but also a thunderstorm in the distance. This will be our forecast moving forward. Mostly clear, but occasional thunderstorms, especially at night. The five most-liked photos will compete Oct. 1 for a dive or snorkel for two at Scuba Roatan. If you want a chance to win, send your photo with name and location to bookmybio@gmail.com.
At 7:15 a.m. we have a line of popcorn clouds over Barbarat and Morat. Radar shows a shower on the north end of these clouds, but they don’t seem to be moving much. We will keep a small chance of a morning shower, but most of us should be dry. Going forward we will continue to have about a 30 percent chance of a nighttime or early morning shower. Last night several locations on the east side of the big island got a small shower, good for a few hundredths of an inch.
Wind and Galaxy Wave Forecast: This morning we actually have west winds around 10 mph and seas 3 feet all around the island. Those winds should turn northwesterly by midday and seas around 2 feet, but we will be back to east winds by evening. Tomorrow we are back to east winds 10 mph daytimes and 20 mph nighttimes and seas 1-2 feet days and 2-3 feet nights.
Before I started shopping at Carniceria Rosita I didn’t know there was so many different kinds of ribs. There’s spare ribs and baby back ribs, pork ribs and beef ribs. Some you cut across the bone and some between bones. Get the ribs you want cut the way you want at Carniceria Rosita in French Harbour and Coxen Hole.
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Alina Solorzano and shows a beautiful sunset on the east end of the big island. We had a pretty quiet night, except for Utila which had a thundershower just after midnight that brought a half inch to the weather station near the airport. We should have a pretty quiet weekend with winds getting a little breezier.
At 7 a.m. we have a small shower to the southwest of Guanaja, but it doesn’t seem to be moving much. We should be partly cloudy to mostly sunny this weekend with a very low chance of an overnight or early morning shower. As we get into early next week, overnight rain chances will go up to around 30 percent each night.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Winds this morning are from the east 10-15 mph and seas around 3 feet southside. Winds will calm midday to 5-10 mph and seas around 2 feet. Tonight winds pick up to 15-20 mph and seas 3-4 feet. Sunday will be windier than today, with east winds 15 mph and seas 3 feet. This week ahead will be slightly windier than last week was, but all in all not too bad.
Tuesday is Children’s Day and Ikigai by Robby Molina has a great offer to celebrate the children in your school or family. Call at 9606-1668 for details.
High and low tides continue to be mild. Have a great weekend!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day is a double rainbow extending from Jonesville over to Jonesville Point from Alex Fleig. If we don’t see rainbows over the next 24 hours, it will be because we don’t have enough sunlight as clouds and showers from our tropical wave pass over us. After tomorrow morning, rain should lessen.
On our radar this morning at 7:30 we can see the thundershowers we had this morning moving to our west, while another group of storms moves in from our east. These storms should weaken as the morning goes on, but there will be a chance of rain all day under mostly cloudy skies. Tonight there is a 70 percent chance of showers and thundershowers that will last through tomorrow morning. Starting tomorrow afternoon, we should go back to our cycle of 40 percent chances of rain overnights and early mornings and partly cloudy skies middays.
Here are our rain totals from midnight to 7:30 a.m. today.
The National Hurricane Center took us out of any chance of a tropical storm. The wave that is passing over us has a 30 percent chance of doing something in the Gulf of Mexico. The other three X’s on this map are not a threat for us, but we can see the tropics are getting a little more active as we move into September.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to east winds 5-10 mph and seas 2-3 feet. Seas should be around 2 feet today, but watch out for winds and seas during thunderstorms. Tomorrow and Saturday winds and seas look quite calm. As we get into next week, things will get a bit windier at 15-20 mph east winds and 3 foot seas south side.
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Tides continue to be mild. Have a great Thursday and stay dry.
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Gaby Adrian and shows sunrise over Politilly. If you are in Politilly this morning you are probably seeing clouds off to your east as a shower moves in. Showers will increase over the next couple of days as our tropical wave moves in, but it is VERY unlikely it will turn into anything like a tropical storm.
At 7 a.m. we can see some showers and thundershowers moving in from the east. There’s a good chance many of us will see a shower during the morning hours today. Today, tomorrow and Friday we will have about a 60 percent chance of showers and thundershowers each day.
Here’s the National Hurricane Center map of the storm. You will notice it is yellow, indicating the chance of it turning into a tropical storm is down to 30 percent, and even that is likely after to moves past us into the Gulf of Mexico. Here is the exact wording of their forecast: Some development is possible late this week when the wave slows down over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or early next week over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.
The zero percent chance over the next two days is good for us. It means it is highly unlikely to develop near us. Even so, expect quite a bit of showers around the next three days, even during the day. Hopefully this cools us down. The waters have been getting back up to 86 degree (30C) which is the threshold for coral bleaching.
The arrow points to the center of the tropical wave just south of Jamaica.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We wake up to east winds 10-15 mph and seas up to 3 feet southside. That should calm to 5-10 mph and 2 feet later today. Winds still look fairly calm the next three days, but watch out for gusty winds in squalls.
Our critters need a shiny, healthy coat during bad weather. Make sure your doggie has the healthiest fur on the island by contacting Mitch Cummins and having him mix up a batch of Roatan Pets food for your good boy.
Our tides continue to run high. Have a great Wednesday!
August was another pretty good month for us. As usual, we will put Sandy Bay’s 5.66 inches in the record books and it is about average for the island, especially the west side. Most locations on the east side got 2-3 inches. Guanaja (7.72 inches) and Utila (10.1) were big winners in the rain category. This makes two straight months of above average rainfall, but it still doesn’t make up for the major drought we suffered early in the year.
September is the last month before wet season and we average just under 5 inches in September. I usually recommend September as the best month to visit the island, with smaller crowds, calm winds and not a lot of rain. With this tropical wave we’re starting off wet, and the long-range forecast shows typical rain chances the first week or so after the wave passes, so hopefully we continue to fill the cisterns.
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Jacy Richards who caught this sunset on a walk between Punta Blanca and Punta Gorda.
We are still keeping an eye on the system that is located due north of the of Colombia/Venezuela border. Chances are good this means nothing more than showers Thursday night into Friday, but the GFS is forecasting a bit more wind and rain, though still nothing terribly serious for the islands.
Let’s start with the near-term forecast. Many of us got a shower last night around 10 p.m., with Utila, Guanaja and the west side of Roatan getting about a third of an inch and the east side getting about a tenth. On satellite this morning we can see some showers to our east. As usual this time of morning they are weakening, but we will keep a small chance of a shower through the morning. Today through Thursday we will continue to have small chances of rain overnight and early morning and winds quite mild, 5-10 mph from the east with seas 1-2 feet.
This is the National Hurricane Center forecast. The X on the left is the one we are worried about. The two on the right, if they develop, will go north. The one on the left STILL has a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression, which means we are no closer to knowing what will happen than we were yesterday.
The most interesting possibility is the one from the US GFS. It shows the wave hitting us Thursday night with one round of showers, then reforming to our north this weekend and possibly becoming a tropical storm to our northwest before moving into Belize.
The ICON shows the storm going to our north as a fairly weak tropical depression, perhaps a tropical storm, but giving us minimal effects.
The Euro continues to show just a wave of showers for Thursday night into Friday.
If you are worried about travel plans, you can trust the folks at the Galaxy Wave. If things get too bad, they will cancel and you can use your ticket for another trip. Today through Thursday, though, it looks like smooth sailing.
The most likely outcome seems to be scattered showers Thursday night into Friday and maybe continuing into the weekend. Our winds may pick up a bit Thursday into the weekend, but right now it looks like we’re only looking for winds around 20 mph. But because this area is the area that it could strengthen, we still need to watch for rapid intensification. It is unlikely it will strengthen into a hurricane, but you can never say never. Just ask the folks in Puerta Vallarta.
Tides continue to run on the high side. Have a great Tuesday!
Good morning Bay Islands. I’m not going to do a photo of the day today because there is slightly more to worry about from our potential tropical storm. The US National Hurricane Center still only gives it a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression. The big change this morning is the US GFS model forecasts this storm to slow down, coming toward the islands on Saturday evening and giving it time to strengthen.
Let’s start with the Euro. This is the best case scenario for us. It shows a tropical wave never really getting any rotation going and just bringing us thundershowers Thursday night into Friday.
Compare that to the GFS forecast. It shows the storm slowing down and not getting here until Saturday evening. That gives it time to strengthen. The bright side is that this forecast only shows the storm becoming a weak tropical storm as the center moves just to our north. This would give us wind gusts around 30 mph and the center of the storm would be around 40 mph. The National Hurricane Center agrees that the Western Caribbean, where we are, has a good atmosphere for a storm to strengthen, and when that happens, how much it intensifies is hard to predict. So keep an eye on this forecast for the next couple of days. If the storm does slow down, we do need to be prepared for a storm this weekend.
The German ICON doesn’t predict it to slow as much as the GFS, but it still has a borderline tropical depression/tropical storm passing just north of us sometime Friday.
Near term forecast. For as much excitement as we have in the tropics, our forecast for the next couple of days is pretty boring. We continue to have a small chance for an overnight or early morning shower, though that hasn’t happened for most of us the last couple of nights. Winds and seas will continue to be mild, coming from the east at 7-12 mph and seas 1-2 feet.
Tides continue to run on the high side as we near new moon. Have a great week!
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