Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Kathy Deegan in Coco View. I made the mistake yesterday of pulling up the wrong tide chart and saying we were close to full moon. We are not. We are actually close to quarter moon, but even quarter moon can be quite a site as it rises over our calm waters. Our forecast is starting to look drier.
We have very few clouds this morning which, along with calm winds, makes us feel quite warm. Yesterday the airport got to 86 for a high and only cooled down to 75 this morning. We will see more of that today and tomorrow and maybe a degree or two warmer with low or no chance of rain. Sunday into Monday we are looking at maybe a 30 percent chance of rain. Early next week each day will have a 20 percent chance until we get to Thursday. The models are now very divided as to whether we will get a tropical wave late next week, so we will keep an eye on it.
If you are planning your cruise or other vacation to the islands, you have picked a great time. Waters are calm and rain chances going back down. Make sure to check out Jolly Roger Roatan for a guaranteed great time.
Normal low tides should return in a week, but for now tides are quite moderate. Have a great Friday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Colleen Tennyson Bodden taken Monday from St. Helene. We have finally been able to dry out after a long period of rain. Our dry period now looks like it should last through Saturday, though our chance of a passing shower will go up a little on Saturday. Rain chances go up Sunday, about 40 percent each day for the period Sunday through Tuesday. Mid to late week we are still looking at some sort of tropical wave.
This is the Canadian model and it is the only one trying to make our tropical wave into a tropical storm late next week. Much like with Rafael, if this happens, it could actually mean LESS rain for us as the storm moves to our north. Most other models show disorganized showers over the islands, especially Thursday and Friday of next week.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Winds are light and variable and seas around 1 foot and these conditions will last for awhile. It is a perfect time to go online or to a ticket outlet and purchase your Galaxy Wave tickets from Roatan Ferry. Also, don’t forget to check out their Guanaja route.
We’re closing in on full moon. Have a great Thursday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Claire Staffa, who caught some impressive, dark cumulus clouds at sunrise on Oct. 30. We should be seeing fewer cumulus clouds over the next few days as we get a much-needed break from the rain. Unfortunately there is more rain in the forecast for next week.
Let’s start with the satellite at 7:30 a.m. where we see Tropical Storm Raphael bringing rain and some wind to Jamaica. It is expected to strengthen and there are hurricane warnings for the Caymans and western Cuba. As predicted, though, this storm has brought us a little relief from our rain by drawing in moisture away from us. We will have lots of sun and a few clouds. It won’t be impossible to see a shower or two, but it should soon pass if you get one. We will be hotter than we’ve been, with highs into the upper 80s and lows around 78 or 79 through Friday.
Raphael will be caught up in a cold front in the US this weekend. The tail of that cold front will bring us higher rain chances this weekend.
As we look toward next week we are reminded that we are still in hurricane season. Toward the middle of next week, the GFS sees some sort of tropical cyclone building in our part of the Caribbean. Since it is so far away, this isn’t an exact forecast, but most models agree the middle of next week will again be rainy, with the possibility of some sort of tropical development. We’ll keep an eye on it.
For those of us with friends in the Caymans, tell them to be watchful later today into tonight for a Category 1 Hurricane with winds 70-80 mph and lots of rain.
One more week of these very mild tides. Have a great Tuesday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Jennifer DeWitt and shows the rainy day we had yesterday on the northeast end of the big island looking back to the south. Most of us got 1-2 inches yesterday and we’ve started out this morning with about a tenth of an inch as of 7 a.m. Starting tomorrow afternoon we are looking for drier conditions as Potential Tropical Storm Rafael draws moisture away from us as it head through Jamaica and Cayman.
On radar this morning we see a lot of scattered showers at 7 a.m. All of this activity is slowly drifting to the west. The next 24 hours we will have off-and-on showers, especially this evening and overnight. After some morning showers tomorrow, we really expect things to get drier for the period Tuesday through Thursday. This coming weekend we are still looking for a weak norther to bring better rain chances back.
Here is the expected path of Raphael, which is forecast to become a hurricane, but well to our northeast.
This is the potential rainfall forecast from the National Hurricane Center. You can barely see Guanaja on the far left of this map. You will note our Bay Islands have a forecast for 1-2 inches, but most of that should fall in the next 24 hours.
Wind and Galaxy wave forecast: We continue to have northeast winds quite light at 5-10 mph, but seas around 3 feet. Those conditions continue throughout today, but tomorrow and Wednesday we will see winds shifting to the west/northwest, but remaining light. Seas should be 2-3 feet tomorrow and 1-2 feet Wednesday, with the trend being for calmer waters into the weekend.
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Tides haven’t been very low recently, but we should be getting lower tides, especially next week. Have a great week!
Rainfall for October 2024: We have had quite a rainy period. If I asked you if October was well above average or close to average, which would you pick?
Well, guess what? October was only 2 inches above our average October rainfall. We put nearly 19 inches in the record book and that was about average throughout the islands, just under 20 inches. On average, November is our rainiest month with 17.5 inches on average. We are well on our way to that number, though I think this coming week will be below average.
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Dethyra Ebanks and shows sunrise at Flowers Bay. We had quite a bit of rain overnight, especially Guanaja and Utila, which each got over an inch. The week ahead looks less rainy.
First let’s take a look at our satellite at 7:40 a.m. Most of the rain is now to our south, with a few popcorn clouds, especially over Helene and Barbarat. We will keep a chance of showers around through the morning, but we should stay mostly dry midday and afternoon. Best chances of showers will continue to be overnights and early mornings. As we get to the end of the week, even those should be less and I think Wednesday through Friday we have a good chance of staying dry. A weak norther should bring us rain and west/northwest winds 10-15 mph next weekend.
We still have an 80 percent chance of a tropical cyclone forming but the models all agree that it will move well to our northeast. In fact, it may keep us drier than normal by drawing in all the moisture. We will keep scattered showers in the forecast Monday and Tuesday morning, but I don’t expect a whole lot of rain and, as mentioned earlier, the end of the week looks quite dry.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: This morning we have mostly northeast winds 5-10 mph, but we are still dealing with swell that keeps our seas 2-3 feet. As the storm passes north of us, we will keep those 3 foot seasa as the winds turn to the west, but still only around 5-10 mph. Toward the end of the week we will see quite calm sea conditions.
This coming week, especially Wednesday through Friday, will be perfect days for a seaside barbecue with the best meats on the island, custom cut at Carniceria Rosita.
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Guido Bertea in Lawson Rock. Our November winner gets a $50 gift certificate to Umbul Umbul.
Many of us midisland have already gotten over an inch of rain. This weekend we will continue to mostly overnight and early morning showers, but things should get drier as we get into next week.
A reminder for your TV watching and scheduling Zoom meetings with North Americans. North America will fall back tonight one hours (except Arizona, Hawaii and Saskatchewan). So the US Central Time zone (Chicago, Dallas) will be back on our time zone.
There is now an 80 percent chance of tropical cyclone development, but you will notice we are outside of the red box. The storm may actually make us DRIER as it pulls in all the moisture closer to Cayman and Cuba.
Here is the US GFS and you can see the storm moving well to our north. You can also see there is a lot less green (rain) on top of us starting Monday.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Winds continue to be light and mostly from the northeast, but because of swell (winds in other places) we continue to have 3 foot seas. Those conditions will continue until Tuesday when the storm give us a west/northwest wind that will still be light, but seas may get up to 4 feet northside.
Low tides continue to run high. Have a great weekend.
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Daniela Ciatto and shows a cruise ship heading back out to sea as the sun sets. Today is the first day of the November contest. The five most-liked photos compete for a $50 gift certificate at Umbul Umbul.* As we start a new month, all eyes are on the area north of Panama to see what storm may stir there this weekend. *No cash value. Certificate expires after six months.
Let’s start with the satellite at 8:30 a.m. Though most of the activity looks like it is to our west, Utila has picked up the most rain this morning, almost half an inch since midnight. Today and over the weekend we will still be dealing with scattered showers, but I think we will be seeing more midday sun and we will be more in the typical island cycle of rain coming overnight and in the early mornings.
Our weather early next week depends a lot on what happens with the storm system brewing north of Panama, which now has a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone according to the National Hurricane Center. One of the thing that you can imagine when looking at this map is a big High pressure system over the northeast US, which should steer the storm to the northwest.
Here is the Canadian model forecast. I picked it because it makes the storm bigger and closer to us than any other model. But EVEN if this happens, it isn’t too bad for us. The storm would pass to our north sometime Tuesday, and we might get some showers on the south side of the storm and some westerly winds, it is probably still less rain than we’ve gotten this past week. Most other models show it weaker or (GFS) going much further north, which gives us even drier conditions next week. All in all, I think the weather next week will be better than the weather has been this past week, regardless of what this storm does.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Our winds continue to be from the northeast at 5-10 mph and seas around 2 feet. Our waves are coming from the northeast, so they may be a little wavier, to 3 feet, on the northeast side toward Diamond Rock and Camp Bay.
I don’t think the potential storm will be much of a factor early next week, but after it passes, late next week looks almost dead calm. These will be perfect days to purchase your Roatan Ferry Galaxy Wave tickets for only 600 lempira each way.
We’re in new moon phase, a great time for stargazing if we can avoid the clouds. In early evening twilight on November 3, 4 and 5, people across the face of the Earth can see the brightest planet, Venus, near the waxing crescent moon. Also nearby is the elusive planet Mercury. The lit portion of the slender crescent moon points to Mercury on November 3. And then, the moon will float close to Venus on the evening of November 4. Have a great Friday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Robert Rhorer, who captured this classic storm creating a waterspout near Big Bight on the first day of the month. It is a classic look at an updraft creating a waterspout that feeds the storm cloud. The top five most-liked photos will compete tomorrow for $50 in Café Rubio coffee. Next month, the prize will be a $50 gift certificate to Umbul Umbul.
Here is the radar at 7:30 a.m. There are plenty of showers around and they are drifting to the west very slowly. We will keep a good chance of showers around today and into the weekend. Rain will be off-and-on and we will have periods of sunshine. Winds this morning are from the northeast at 5-10 mph and seas 2-3 feet. This evening we may see winds get up to 10-15 mph with 3 foot seas, but winds tomorrow into the weekend should be very light and seas remain 2-3 feet.
Here is the box for development of some sort of tropical storm. There is a 50 percent chance over the next week. The Canadian still has a storm developing and moving to our north. The GFS has a storm developing and moving well to our east. The Euro has a very weak storm moving north of us. In any case, all them say that next week will likely be less rainy than this week. That doesn’t mean no rain, it just means less rain.
Mitch Cummins is bringing his innovative, locally sourced pet food to cats, so get in touch with him at Roatan Pets if you want him to create a specially designed food for your feline friend.
Lowest tide is around 2 a.m. Have a great Thursday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Jenifer Mitchell looking back toward the southeast end of the island at sunset. We had a relatively dry day yesterday and it was nice while it lasted. We are back in the off and on rain showers today through the weekend but we have hopes of a little less rain next week, but also watching the tropics.
We had a round of showers around sunrise and those clouds are still building to our north, but we also have blue sky to our south, so we will keep a chance of showers through the day, but we also should see some sun. Rain chances will remain good through the weekend, but of course it won’t be constant and we will have periods of dry weather, especially middays and early afternoons.
We still have a 40 percent chance of some sort of tropical storm development this weekend or early next week north of Panama. The models are all over the place and many give us drier conditions next week with the storm moving well away from us.
The Canadian is the only model to forecast a tropical storm/hurricane, but even the Canadian has it going well north of us next week.
During my trips to the States I find myself missing my chorizo, so imagine my surprise when I walked into an international grocery and found a package labeled “Honduran chorizo.” It really is world famous, and you can get the real deal at Carniceria Rosita. Low tides continue to be not very low. Have a great Wednesday!
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