Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Carla Scramstad in West End who caught this ship heading into the storm. I had at least two others send me photos of this particular storm, but Carla got great definition in the cloud.
Many locations got 2-3 inches yesterday adn as of 6:50 a.m. only Jonesville and Politilly recorded a tenth of an inch. Soon-to-be Hurricane Helene is about to enter the Gulf of Mexico and leave us, but there is an active pattern in the Caribbean.

On satellite at 7 a.m. we can see a very well-formed Helene to our north. We are on the tail end of the storm. There is a small thundershower trying to form to our northwest so we will keep a chance of showers through the morning hours. After that we should go to normal rain chances, mostly overnights and early mornings under partly cloudy skies.

This is a screenshot of the webcam at West Bay where they are having waves 4-5 feet at the reef with 20 mph west winds. Today will be windy and wavy, but tonight things should start calming down. Tomorrow we will have a west wind in the morning around 15 mph and seas around 3 feet, but the afternoon should be calmer, and we will see calmer winds and seas into the weekend.

We’ve been talking about another tropical wave for next week and the GFS is trying to make it another hurricane that would look a lot like Helene, but similar to Helene it shouldn’t be a threat to us for anything more than showers and storm sometime early to mid next week.

Next week is Semana Morazanico and Galaxy Wave has a special week of ferry service for all the trips between the islands and the mainland.

Tides continue to run high. Have a great Wednesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day is from Joyann Villalta Sanders and shows some clouds over Calabash and probably some rain on the right side of the photo. We’ve seen scattered showers from our Potential Tropical Storm Helene, but being on the southwest side of it, we’ve been on the lighter side of things. Today we will have the best chance of seeing showers before it moves away.

Here’s the current location and likely path of the storm.

The “X” marks the center of circulation. You can see that most of the storm is to the east of the storm. This storm will continue to move northwest. As it moved toward where the Caribbean meets the Gulf of Mexico, we should see more scattered storms today and tonight. Some storms may linger into tomorrow morning. Let’s hope we get some rain, because our sea temperatures continue to linger just above 87 degrees (30C) and our reef needs some cooling rains.
After tomorrow morning we should go back to normal 40 percent rain chances, mostly overnights and early mornings.

Wind and Galaxy wave forecast: Here is a computer model of winds in the Caribbean right now. Peak winds over Cayman are around 35 mph, below tropical storm status. We are getting 15 mph west winds and 2 foot seas. As the storm moves westward, our winds should go up to 20 mph and 3 foot seas, mostly north and west sides. Those winds will continue through tonight and tomorrow morning. As we get into tomorrow evening through the rest of the week we should get quite calm again.

Our winds and seas should be no problem for the professionals at Galaxy Wave. Unlike most trips, waves today and tomorrow will be coming from the west, so the trip to La Ceiba will be slightly bumpier than the trip back.

Tides continue to be on the high side. Have a great Tuesday!

Good morning Bay Islands. No photo of the day today because we have Potential Tropical Storm Helene to our west this morning. The good news is that this storm will move to our east and to our north, leaving us on the calmer southwest side of the storm. The models all expect this storm to intensify fairly rapidly, which could be bad news for northern Yucatan, western Cuba and especially the Florida Panhandle, but we will just have to deal with some rain today and tomorrow.

Here is the outlook from the National Hurricane Center. Potential Tropical Storm Helene doesn’t have enough circulation to even be a tropical disturbance but there is a 70 percent chance that happens in the next 48 hours. By that time it will be past us. You will also notice there is an area of storms off the coast of Africa, but those should move northwest and will be no danger to us.

Here is our rainfall since midnight.

Here is our satellite image at 7 a.m. There’s lots of clouds and rain to our northwest. The clouds are moving west, but midlevel winds are from the northeast so most of the rain is pretty much stationary. Nevertheless, look for rain and storms to pop up off and on today, tonight and tomorrow. We may get a little clearing tomorrow afternoon. After this storm clears out of here on Wednesday, we will continue ot have good chances of rain, especially overnights and early mornings.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Our winds this morning are from the northwest at 5-10 mph and seas around 2 feet. Winds and seas should stay fairly calm today. Tomorrow through Wednesday morning we should see winds pick up from the west around 15 mph and seas 3-4 feet. It may get a little stronger depending on how fast Potential Tropical Storm Helene gets.
Wednesday afternoon through the weekend looks much calmer.

Several of the computers are giving us a chance at another tropical wave around Oct. 3. That is still a long way off. We will keep an eye on it.

If you are watching the forecast because you have a cruise scheduled to visit our islands, you will be in good hands if you schedule your excursion with Jolly Roger Roatan. They know how to stay in calm waters and get you back on board your ship safely and on time.

It’s a good thing that we aren’t going to be hit with a tropical storm surge, because our tides continue high. Have a great week!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from NASA, and shows a satellite image of equinox, when day and night is equal from the north pole to the south pole. Supposedly our day and night should be equal, but like many things with weather, the answer isn’t simple. Our sunrise is 5:35 a.m. and sunset is 5:41 p.m., so 12 hours 6 minutes of daytime. The extra six minutes is because the atmosphere causes the sun to appear to rise six minutes early, so enjoy them.
We are still watching a likely tropical storm near us, but it shouldn’t become a tropical storm until it passes us.

Our close up satellite this morning shows some rain to our west. These storms are mostly stationary, but upper level winds are moving the tops of the clouds from west to east. West Bay and Utila have picked up about half an inch of rain as of 7:30 a.m. BTW, several of our West Bay weather stations are not functioning. I love my weather station owners. If I can assist let me know.

We finally have a red “X” to mark a center of our storms off the Mosquito Coast. We have a 70 percent chance of a tropical depression in the next week and, for the first time, a 10 percent chance in the next 48 hours. You will notice the area marked for development is mostly to our east and north. We don’t have to worry about a tropical storm or hurricane, but we should have off and on rain and storms through Wednesday morning.

Here is the Euro rainfall prediction through Wednesday morning. Most of the computer models are similar. You can see the heaviest rain (reds and oranges) going to our east, toward the Caymans. Most models have us right around 2 inches through this period. Starting Wednesday we should start clearing out and our weather will become more normal, with rain chances returning to the overnights and early mornings.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: We should stay pretty calm today, with east/northeast winds 5-10 mph and seas 1-2 feet. Starting tomorrow our winds and waves depend on how quickly this storm gets organized. Winds will turn to the west starting tomorrow and perhaps pick up to 15-20 mph and seas likely to 3 feet, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

Don’t forget that Sunday is Lobster Day at Ikigai by Robby Molina. It’s the best and most reasonably priced Lobster special on the island and it’s only on Sundays so head down to French Harbour!

Tides remain relatively high. Have a great Sunday!

Our photo of the day from John DeBusi in West End puts us in mind of the old saying “Red sky in morning, sailor take warning; Red sky at night, sailor’s delight.” That saying does seem to have some truth to it. We’ll be watching for rainy weather, especially as we get into Monday and Tuesday.

We had a storm off to our east the brought a little rain to the east side, with most folks getting about a tenth of an inch. There was also a shower around 9 p.m. last night in many locations. This storm seems to be weakening, so we will go with a 20 percent chance of a shower, especially this morning. Over the next several days we will see our nighttime and early morning rain coverage increasing as the tropical system start to wind up. Peak rain looks like it will be Monday, Monday night and Tuesday.

This morning we have 5 mph east winds and seas around 2 feet. Winds and seas should stay pretty calm through the weekend. As storms begin to increase, watch for squalls that can cause temporarily rough seas.

The GFS shows this potential strom winding up right over our heads, so watch out for scattered thunderstorms, especially Sunday night through Tuesday. It should move out to our west midweek next week. At the end of this loop you can see a storm forecast for us in two weeks, but that is a long way off and these forecasts aren’t very accurate that far out.

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High tide will be 11 a.m. as we continue to have quite high tides. Have a great Friday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Crystal Johnson on Jonesville Point and starts us off with his and hers cups of coffee to greet the day.
We are still watching for something to brew in the Caribbean, or maybe even the Pacific late this weekend.

Let’s start with our forecast for today and tomorrow. This morning we see a storm tried to get going off the coast of the mainland, but lost strength. Otherwise we just have a few popcorn clouds. We should be dry today and probably tomorrow, though we will have a chance of an overnight or early morning shower. As we get into the weekend we should start seeing the scattered showers increasing.
Our winds continue light, from the east at 10 mph and seas around 2 feet. We should stay around there today, perhaps getting a little calmer tomorrow into the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center now gives us a 40 percent chance at a tropical depression in the next seven days, though you will notice we have no low pressure system (no X on the map). There is a great deal of uncertainty as to exactly where this system will form, though generally we should expect an increase in rain Sunday into Monday and perhaps Tuesday.

The German ICON actually has the center of the storm brewing in the Pacific on Saturday before moving across the mainland toward us. Keep in mind that there is almost zero chance that we have a tropical storm affecting us. We will have a tropical wave giving us showers and storms that will very possibly become a tropical storm for the Gulf of Mexico to deal with.

In the meantime we will have some nice weather today, likely through Saturday, so it will be a great time to sit outside and watch the bay at French Harbour at Ikigai by Robby Molina and enjoy the best ceviche on the island by a Top 100 chef in Central America.

Did you catch that super moon last night? I love the way the moon looks reflected off the water. Have a great Thursday!

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Stacy Peñalva, who captured this halo around our supermoon last night while it was being eclipsed by a palm tree in Lawson Rock.

This morning we have a few scattered showers around and are still watching for the possibility of stormy weather late weekend into early next week.

At 6:40 a.m. we have a storm coming off the coast that is headed northwest toward Roatan and Guanaja. If it makes it here it should cause rain, especially Guanaja and midisland to east side around 9 a.m. We will keep a 40 percent chance of a scattered shower through the afternoon today. Tomorrow through Saturday we will have 30 percent chances of rain daytime and 50 percent chances overnight into the early morning. It looks like the trend is going to be toward an increase in scattered showers as our tropical wave gets going.

If you watched the video I posted yesterday to the Facebook group, you learned about the Central American Gyre, which is a factory for producing tropical storms. Fortunately for us they generally aren’t tropical storms until they leave here. The forecast is still calling for a peak of storminess here on Monday before the storm (potentially Tropical Storm Helene) moves north and away from us. The National Hurricane Center has put out an area for investigation, but it only gives it a 20 percent chances of forming a tropical depression over the next 7 days, showing they are still suspicious the models are wrong. We’ll keep an eye on it.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: This morning we have east winds around 15 mph and seas at 3 feet south side. Midday we will be around 10-15 mph and seas at 2 feet. Winds and seas should be slightly calmer tomorrow and quite a bit calmer Friday into Saturday.

All this talk of storminess can make visitors nervous, but Jolly Roger Roatan is guaranteed to show you the best time possible while getting you back aboard your ship safely and on time. This storm is a great example of how rare tropical storms are in our part of the Caribbean. You are much more likely to have a hurricane ruin your Florida vacation that you are to run into weather trouble in Roatan.

Tides continue to run on the high side during our full moon. Have a great Wednesday!