There isn’t much news that is new in the latest forecasts. One thing that has changed is that more of the latest models are forecasting a higher end tropical storm or lower end Category 1 hurricane as the storm passes our islands. Some locations are now showing wind gusts around 40 mph, or low level tropical storm force. Winds will get WORSE overnight into tomorrow morning. I fully expect gusts 50-60 mph in some locations. Winds start to turn to the south Saturday. Some models say only 20-30 mph, but some are still forecasting strong southerly winds for Saturday. We have not yet seen the worst of the storm. Hold on for the next two days.
Good morning Bay Islands. I am sorry to say that there is now a very real possibility of the Bay Islands getting a direct hit from a tropical storm or hurricane sometime between Friday and Monday. It isn’t a certainty, but the forecasts are starting to agree that the storm will come our way. You can see that in this map, showing multiple computer forecasts as to the direction the storm will go. The exact location of the storm will make a big difference on any damage to the islands, but the reality is that it is reasonable to make preparations today and tomorrow, because whatever happens, will start to happen on Friday.
Let’s start with this morning’s rain. You can see a small storm brew overnight and come south toward us this morning. As of 7:30 it has given midisland up to 2 inches of rain and about an inch west side. It will probably keep us in clouds this morning with periods of showers. We may see some sun this afternoon. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph and seas 1-2 feet. Unfortunately tomorrow looks like off and on rain as well as our storm approaches. Depending on what the storm does, we may see winds increase tomorrow afternoon to around 20 mph and seas to 3 feet.
On the broad satellite view we can see a large area of disorganized showers to the east of the Mosquito Coast. All of the models say that this area will organize into a rotating storm, probably sometime tomorrow. After it forms we will have a better idea of exactly where it will go.
This is the wind forecast for the German ICON model. It is a worst case scenario for us. It shows the storm, probably a hurricane, stalling over the weekend, with the eye just to our north. This would cause hurricane strength winds (74 mph) for many or most of us. I don’t need to tell you what that would do to RECO. We would probably be without power for an extended time. It would also bring catastrophic rain of around 2 feet and seas of 15 feet or more.
This is perhaps our best case scenario. The Canadian model has the storm moving inland over the mainland of Honduras. We all know that hurricanes weaken when they move inland, and this scenario would mean probably tropical storm force winds for us over the weekend (39 mph) and about 8 inches of rain.
Be very weather aware. We will know more tomorrow after the storm forms, but there is no harm in being prepared. Whatever happens will start Thursday night into Friday morning and will likely last through Monday morning. Weather next week looks pretty decent Tuesday and Wednesday, but Thursday we may be getting a norther with a stiff north breeze and more rain. Be careful and have a great Wednesday!
Good morning Bay Islands. No photo of the day today because we need to talk about Potential Tropical Storm Sara, which should form somewhere near the Mosquito Coast Thursday into Friday and will probably be to our north and east until Monday.
Let’s start with the satellite. You can see a few clouds in our area, including a very weak low pressure system spinning to our north. Today and tomorrow will continue to be mostly nice, with only a few passing showers and west winds 10-15 mph with seas around 2 feet, mostly north and west. You can also see the scattered storms that are likely to become Sara in the Caribbean northwest of Baranquilla, Colombia.
Let’s talk about what the forecasts disagree on. This is the vorticity (an X-ray of the atmosphere) showing the spin in the atmosphere according to the GFS. It shows a very strong, but also very small, hurricane forming to our east Thursday into Friday, being pushed back east over the weekend, then moving to our northeast on Monday. Most of the other forecasts have this storm much weaker, a borderline tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane when it passes us. Let’s talk about what the forecasts agree on. A. A tropical storm/hurricane will form Thursday or Friday to our east. Thursday and Friday both look like very rainy days here, with winds from the north/northwest 15-20 mph, perhaps gusting to 30 mph. B. A cold front will come on Saturday that will push the storm back to the east. This is critical for us, because if this didn’t happen the storm would be headed our direction. C. Sunday night into Monday the storm should move northwest, and pass us to our east. It is quite possible we will have cool, dry north winds on Monday, but waves will likely be quite high, perhaps 5-7 feet Thursday into Friday and maybe even worse Monday and Tuesday. D. The storm itself will likely be quite small for a hurricane. For what it’s worth, most of next week looks pretty nice with light north winds and fresh air behind the storm and the cold front. Be weather aware as we will know more after this storm forms on Thursday. Have a great Tuesday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Glenn Gertsen in Diamond Rock and shows a great rainbow yesterday. The big news of the day is we have a 40 percent chance of a tropical cyclone betweent he end of this week and the start of next week. Today through Wednesday should be nice and then things get real rainy.
Let’s start with the 8 a.m. satellite, showing a few popcorn clouds around, causing a shower here or there. These clouds are moving west to east due to low level westerly winds. We will have passing showers and partly cloudy skies today through Wednesday, but most of the time we should be dry. Winds will be from the west-northwest at 5-10 mph and seas 1-2 feet.
Here is the area the National Hurricane Center has outlined for a 40 percent chance of a tropical cyclone over the next 7 days. Unlike other systems, this one looks like it will develop closer to the coast and will be closer to us. We’ve been fortunate with other storms because they passed well to our north.
This map is the Euro forecast for spin in the atmosphere. It is like an X-ray that shows where storms are turning. It forecasts a storm to form off the Mosquito Coast Thursday into Friday, get knocked back to the east slightly over the weekend by a weak norther, then pass by us Monday before heading for the Gulf of Mexico.
Here is the GFS forecast for rain over the same period. You will notice it doesn’t show the storm being knocked east over the weekend, but forming and coming over us Sunday into Monday.
Expect heavy rain for the period Thursday through Monday. It is still unclear how strong the storm will be or when the worst of it will pass by us, but there is the real possibility of strong winds and heavy seas at some point during that period. On the bright side, the hurricance season ends Nov. 30 and we are expecting a series of northers that should cool down the seas and make tropical storm development less likely, so we are definitely toward the end of this hurricane season, but it has been a busy one.
Tides are still running high, especially in the early morning hours. Have a great week!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Tabitha Henry in Sandy Bay, along with a note that the calm waters made it look like the cruise ship was floating on air.
Those calm waters will last through about Wednesday, along with small chances of rain, mostly overnights and early mornings, but otherwise beautiful weather.
Changes in our weather start Thursday and Friday with a tropical waves passing through and increasing our rain chances. Over the weekend a norther is coming that will increase our rain chances and we could see some periods of very heavy rain, and we will also have to watch for the possibility of some sort of tropical storm in the Western Caribbean. We are still too far away to know for certain, but we will keep an eye on it. Have a great Sunday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Nancy Sikora in Carib Bight near Jonesville Point.
Our weather today will be beautiful with mostly clear skies and light winds out of the east and seas 1-2 feet. Tomorrow we will have a 20 percent chance of an early morning shower, but tomorrow should be mostly nice, too. Early next week we will have 30 percent chances of morning showers, but we are watching for a tropical wave Thursday into the weekend. We are still watching if it starts rotating and turning into something like a tropical depression, but for right now it doesn’t look too bad. Winds should get up to 15 mph end of the week with 3-4 foot seas though. Have a great weekend!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Kathy Deegan in Coco View. I made the mistake yesterday of pulling up the wrong tide chart and saying we were close to full moon. We are not. We are actually close to quarter moon, but even quarter moon can be quite a site as it rises over our calm waters. Our forecast is starting to look drier.
We have very few clouds this morning which, along with calm winds, makes us feel quite warm. Yesterday the airport got to 86 for a high and only cooled down to 75 this morning. We will see more of that today and tomorrow and maybe a degree or two warmer with low or no chance of rain. Sunday into Monday we are looking at maybe a 30 percent chance of rain. Early next week each day will have a 20 percent chance until we get to Thursday. The models are now very divided as to whether we will get a tropical wave late next week, so we will keep an eye on it.
If you are planning your cruise or other vacation to the islands, you have picked a great time. Waters are calm and rain chances going back down. Make sure to check out Jolly Roger Roatan for a guaranteed great time.
Normal low tides should return in a week, but for now tides are quite moderate. Have a great Friday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Colleen Tennyson Bodden taken Monday from St. Helene. We have finally been able to dry out after a long period of rain. Our dry period now looks like it should last through Saturday, though our chance of a passing shower will go up a little on Saturday. Rain chances go up Sunday, about 40 percent each day for the period Sunday through Tuesday. Mid to late week we are still looking at some sort of tropical wave.
This is the Canadian model and it is the only one trying to make our tropical wave into a tropical storm late next week. Much like with Rafael, if this happens, it could actually mean LESS rain for us as the storm moves to our north. Most other models show disorganized showers over the islands, especially Thursday and Friday of next week.
Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: Winds are light and variable and seas around 1 foot and these conditions will last for awhile. It is a perfect time to go online or to a ticket outlet and purchase your Galaxy Wave tickets from Roatan Ferry. Also, don’t forget to check out their Guanaja route.
We’re closing in on full moon. Have a great Thursday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Claire Staffa, who caught some impressive, dark cumulus clouds at sunrise on Oct. 30. We should be seeing fewer cumulus clouds over the next few days as we get a much-needed break from the rain. Unfortunately there is more rain in the forecast for next week.
Let’s start with the satellite at 7:30 a.m. where we see Tropical Storm Raphael bringing rain and some wind to Jamaica. It is expected to strengthen and there are hurricane warnings for the Caymans and western Cuba. As predicted, though, this storm has brought us a little relief from our rain by drawing in moisture away from us. We will have lots of sun and a few clouds. It won’t be impossible to see a shower or two, but it should soon pass if you get one. We will be hotter than we’ve been, with highs into the upper 80s and lows around 78 or 79 through Friday.
Raphael will be caught up in a cold front in the US this weekend. The tail of that cold front will bring us higher rain chances this weekend.
As we look toward next week we are reminded that we are still in hurricane season. Toward the middle of next week, the GFS sees some sort of tropical cyclone building in our part of the Caribbean. Since it is so far away, this isn’t an exact forecast, but most models agree the middle of next week will again be rainy, with the possibility of some sort of tropical development. We’ll keep an eye on it.
For those of us with friends in the Caymans, tell them to be watchful later today into tonight for a Category 1 Hurricane with winds 70-80 mph and lots of rain.
One more week of these very mild tides. Have a great Tuesday!
Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Jennifer DeWitt and shows the rainy day we had yesterday on the northeast end of the big island looking back to the south. Most of us got 1-2 inches yesterday and we’ve started out this morning with about a tenth of an inch as of 7 a.m. Starting tomorrow afternoon we are looking for drier conditions as Potential Tropical Storm Rafael draws moisture away from us as it head through Jamaica and Cayman.
On radar this morning we see a lot of scattered showers at 7 a.m. All of this activity is slowly drifting to the west. The next 24 hours we will have off-and-on showers, especially this evening and overnight. After some morning showers tomorrow, we really expect things to get drier for the period Tuesday through Thursday. This coming weekend we are still looking for a weak norther to bring better rain chances back.
Here is the expected path of Raphael, which is forecast to become a hurricane, but well to our northeast.
This is the potential rainfall forecast from the National Hurricane Center. You can barely see Guanaja on the far left of this map. You will note our Bay Islands have a forecast for 1-2 inches, but most of that should fall in the next 24 hours.
Wind and Galaxy wave forecast: We continue to have northeast winds quite light at 5-10 mph, but seas around 3 feet. Those conditions continue throughout today, but tomorrow and Wednesday we will see winds shifting to the west/northwest, but remaining light. Seas should be 2-3 feet tomorrow and 1-2 feet Wednesday, with the trend being for calmer waters into the weekend.
Explore Roatan real estate with the island’s top experts at Roatan Life Real Estate. Serving clients since 2001, we offer personalized guidance in buying and selling properties. Trust our dedicated team for unparalleled local knowledge. Start your journey at http://www.roatanlife.com.
Tides haven’t been very low recently, but we should be getting lower tides, especially next week. Have a great week!
Welcome to Roatan Weather 