November 18, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Kenneth Meissner and shows our full moon over Gibson Bight.
Aside from a 20 mph east wind and 4 foot seas are weather is finally pretty quiet. We should continue to have nice weather today and tomorrow with only a very small chance of a passing shower. Wednesday the winds turn the the west and the chance of rain increases as the day goes along. Thursday night into Friday we will have a norther with 20-25 mph north winds, 4-5 foot seas and 1-3 inches of rain.

Wind and Galaxy Wave forecast: As mentioned above we wake up to 20 mph east winds and 4 foot seas. Those should calm this afternoon to 15 mph and 3 foot seas. We will get windier again tonight, much like last night. Tomorrow winds will be from the east 10-15 mph and seas 2-3 feet. Wednesday winds turn to the west 10-15 mph and seas 1-2 feet. Thursday winds turn to the northwest and will be picking up speed until Thursday night into Friday we have north winds 20-25 mph and seas 6 feet. Winds and seas will be a little better Saturday and a lot better Sunday.

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Lowest tide is 5:30 a.m. tomorrow. Have a great week!

November 17, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Jim Jaskunas in Sandy Bay and shows a full rainbow yesterday. Tropical Storm Sara left around a foot of rain across our islands and as it exited to our west it strengthened a bit, formed an eye and created what seems to be 50 mph winds (our weather stations didn’t seem to get the peak winds, they only registered 30 mph) and 6 foot waves (again our buoys failed to measure well) on top of what was likely a 3 foot storm surge. This caused significant damage to the south-facing seafront businesses in Utila. The storm is now inland in Belize. Utila had showers earlier this morning. This will start clearing out today.

Here are our rainfall totals. I included the rogue storm Wednesday, though not technically part of Sara.

Today we will keep quite a few clouds around, but only about a 40 percent chance of a passing shower. Winds will be light today, but they will pick up from the east 20 mph tonight with seas 4 feet.

Tomorrow winds will be 15-20 mph from the east during the day and 20-25 mph tomorrow night with seas 3-4 feet.

Monday and Tuesday we probably get a break from the rain, but winds turn to the west Wednesday and a norther comes in Thursday and Friday bringing 20 mph north winds, 5 foot seas northside and rain.

Low tide is 4:30 a.m. Have a great Sunday!

November 16, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. We will return with an appropriate photo of the day from Mara Owens in Sandy Bay with a rainbow over Spooky Channel. She reminds us that the rainbow is God’s symbol of peace given to Noah after the flood. We have definitely had a flood: 7-10 inches on Roatan, around 15 inches on Utila. I’ll do a map later today. Hopefully more of the weather stations will come back online as communications are restored. But also, totals are not quite as bad as the worst predictions. I think some areas of the mainland may have gotten it worse.

The storm continues to looks quite ragged on satellite. We are near the center and that actually is a good thing because most of the rain is well to the east and the west. The National Hurricane Center still reports 45 mph maximum sustained winds, but the worst winds seem to be well to our north and even those are only around 30 mph at the surfact. Most locations on Roatan show 10-15 mph winds currently.
We will still have scattered showers today and probably a few more downpours tonight. Most forecasts say 1-2 inches of rain in the next 24 hours, but if you get under the wrong cloud you can get more.
Sunday we may have a few lingering showers in the morning, but we should also see lots of sun with light winds. Monday and Tuesday look nice. Wednesday our winds start to turn to the east in advance of a norther that will bring us north winds 20-25 mph, strong seas northside and rain, especially Thursday evening into Friday.

Seas are 4 feet this morning and should decrease throughout the day and night until they are 2 feet tomorrow.
I will be back later today with an update and rain totals map.

One place that will be open today (the tomorrow in this ad is really for today) is our friends at Ikigai by Robby Molina. If you can make it to French Harbour, enjoy a gourmet meal and share your storm stories with Robby and Melissa.

November 15, 2024 8 a.m.

Here is the 6 a.m. position of the storm, shown as 40 miles east of Guanaja, but in the discussion the National Hurricane Center admits they are having a hard time finding a center. Interaction with land has left this storm ragged. That is good news for us.

Last night we had some gusty winds and heavy rain, but this morning we see light at the end of the tunnel. Look at the structure of the storm on satellite. It definitely doesn’t look like the classic hurricane with strong rotation and an eye in the middle. You can see less strength in the northeast section of the storm, which is the section we are about to enter.

You can see on radar that most of the rain is to our west. I don’t 100 percent trust the Belize City radar because it is so far away, but any rain over us and to our east is probably lighter. It is always possible a storm can reform and cause us a downpour, but chances are good that we will see lighter rain totals today than yesterday and maybe even a peak of sun here or there.

Buoys are showing east/northeast winds this morning around 30 mph. Seas are showing around 8 feet outside the reef. Winds and seas should stay right around 20-30 mph today and seas 7-8 feet. Tomorrow the winds will turn to the east/southeast and the southside will finally get the gusty winds, but right now they still look to be in that 15-25 mph range on the storm’s weaker, eastern side.

Looking ahead, conditions will really start improving on Sunday with some occasional showers as the storm moves into Belize with southeast winds 5-10 mph and seas 2-3 feet. Monday and Tuesday look partly cloudy with perhaps some gusty east winds Monday night. Wednesday winds turn to the west in advance of a norther (cold front) and Thursday evening into Friday morning we will be dealing with a norther with gusty north winds, cool temperatures and rain.

I want to say I’m pleasantly surprised by how well the RECO system has held up and restored power through this storm. Thanks to all the workers getting out in the wind and rain to restore power and I think we are seeing the benefits of installing sturdier power poles over the last couple of years.

November 14, 2024 7:40 p.m.

There isn’t much news that is new in the latest forecasts. One thing that has changed is that more of the latest models are forecasting a higher end tropical storm or lower end Category 1 hurricane as the storm passes our islands. Some locations are now showing wind gusts around 40 mph, or low level tropical storm force. Winds will get WORSE overnight into tomorrow morning. I fully expect gusts 50-60 mph in some locations.
Winds start to turn to the south Saturday. Some models say only 20-30 mph, but some are still forecasting strong southerly winds for Saturday. We have not yet seen the worst of the storm. Hold on for the next two days.

November 13, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. I am sorry to say that there is now a very real possibility of the Bay Islands getting a direct hit from a tropical storm or hurricane sometime between Friday and Monday. It isn’t a certainty, but the forecasts are starting to agree that the storm will come our way. You can see that in this map, showing multiple computer forecasts as to the direction the storm will go. The exact location of the storm will make a big difference on any damage to the islands, but the reality is that it is reasonable to make preparations today and tomorrow, because whatever happens, will start to happen on Friday.

Let’s start with this morning’s rain. You can see a small storm brew overnight and come south toward us this morning. As of 7:30 it has given midisland up to 2 inches of rain and about an inch west side. It will probably keep us in clouds this morning with periods of showers. We may see some sun this afternoon. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph and seas 1-2 feet. Unfortunately tomorrow looks like off and on rain as well as our storm approaches. Depending on what the storm does, we may see winds increase tomorrow afternoon to around 20 mph and seas to 3 feet.

On the broad satellite view we can see a large area of disorganized showers to the east of the Mosquito Coast. All of the models say that this area will organize into a rotating storm, probably sometime tomorrow. After it forms we will have a better idea of exactly where it will go.

This is the wind forecast for the German ICON model. It is a worst case scenario for us. It shows the storm, probably a hurricane, stalling over the weekend, with the eye just to our north. This would cause hurricane strength winds (74 mph) for many or most of us. I don’t need to tell you what that would do to RECO. We would probably be without power for an extended time. It would also bring catastrophic rain of around 2 feet and seas of 15 feet or more.

This is perhaps our best case scenario. The Canadian model has the storm moving inland over the mainland of Honduras. We all know that hurricanes weaken when they move inland, and this scenario would mean probably tropical storm force winds for us over the weekend (39 mph) and about 8 inches of rain.

Be very weather aware. We will know more tomorrow after the storm forms, but there is no harm in being prepared. Whatever happens will start Thursday night into Friday morning and will likely last through Monday morning. Weather next week looks pretty decent Tuesday and Wednesday, but Thursday we may be getting a norther with a stiff north breeze and more rain. Be careful and have a great Wednesday!

November 12, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. No photo of the day today because we need to talk about Potential Tropical Storm Sara, which should form somewhere near the Mosquito Coast Thursday into Friday and will probably be to our north and east until Monday.

Let’s start with the satellite. You can see a few clouds in our area, including a very weak low pressure system spinning to our north. Today and tomorrow will continue to be mostly nice, with only a few passing showers and west winds 10-15 mph with seas around 2 feet, mostly north and west.
You can also see the scattered storms that are likely to become Sara in the Caribbean northwest of Baranquilla, Colombia.

Let’s talk about what the forecasts disagree on.
This is the vorticity (an X-ray of the atmosphere) showing the spin in the atmosphere according to the GFS. It shows a very strong, but also very small, hurricane forming to our east Thursday into Friday, being pushed back east over the weekend, then moving to our northeast on Monday. Most of the other forecasts have this storm much weaker, a borderline tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane when it passes us.
Let’s talk about what the forecasts agree on.
A. A tropical storm/hurricane will form Thursday or Friday to our east. Thursday and Friday both look like very rainy days here, with winds from the north/northwest 15-20 mph, perhaps gusting to 30 mph.
B. A cold front will come on Saturday that will push the storm back to the east. This is critical for us, because if this didn’t happen the storm would be headed our direction.
C. Sunday night into Monday the storm should move northwest, and pass us to our east. It is quite possible we will have cool, dry north winds on Monday, but waves will likely be quite high, perhaps 5-7 feet Thursday into Friday and maybe even worse Monday and Tuesday.
D. The storm itself will likely be quite small for a hurricane.
For what it’s worth, most of next week looks pretty nice with light north winds and fresh air behind the storm and the cold front. Be weather aware as we will know more after this storm forms on Thursday. Have a great Tuesday!

November 11, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Glenn Gertsen in Diamond Rock and shows a great rainbow yesterday.
The big news of the day is we have a 40 percent chance of a tropical cyclone betweent he end of this week and the start of next week. Today through Wednesday should be nice and then things get real rainy.

Let’s start with the 8 a.m. satellite, showing a few popcorn clouds around, causing a shower here or there. These clouds are moving west to east due to low level westerly winds. We will have passing showers and partly cloudy skies today through Wednesday, but most of the time we should be dry. Winds will be from the west-northwest at 5-10 mph and seas 1-2 feet.

Here is the area the National Hurricane Center has outlined for a 40 percent chance of a tropical cyclone over the next 7 days. Unlike other systems, this one looks like it will develop closer to the coast and will be closer to us. We’ve been fortunate with other storms because they passed well to our north.

This map is the Euro forecast for spin in the atmosphere. It is like an X-ray that shows where storms are turning. It forecasts a storm to form off the Mosquito Coast Thursday into Friday, get knocked back to the east slightly over the weekend by a weak norther, then pass by us Monday before heading for the Gulf of Mexico.

Here is the GFS forecast for rain over the same period. You will notice it doesn’t show the storm being knocked east over the weekend, but forming and coming over us Sunday into Monday.

Expect heavy rain for the period Thursday through Monday. It is still unclear how strong the storm will be or when the worst of it will pass by us, but there is the real possibility of strong winds and heavy seas at some point during that period.
On the bright side, the hurricance season ends Nov. 30 and we are expecting a series of northers that should cool down the seas and make tropical storm development less likely, so we are definitely toward the end of this hurricane season, but it has been a busy one.

Tides are still running high, especially in the early morning hours. Have a great week!

November 10, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Tabitha Henry in Sandy Bay, along with a note that the calm waters made it look like the cruise ship was floating on air.

Those calm waters will last through about Wednesday, along with small chances of rain, mostly overnights and early mornings, but otherwise beautiful weather.

Changes in our weather start Thursday and Friday with a tropical waves passing through and increasing our rain chances. Over the weekend a norther is coming that will increase our rain chances and we could see some periods of very heavy rain, and we will also have to watch for the possibility of some sort of tropical storm in the Western Caribbean. We are still too far away to know for certain, but we will keep an eye on it. Have a great Sunday!

November 9, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Nancy Sikora in Carib Bight near Jonesville Point.

Our weather today will be beautiful with mostly clear skies and light winds out of the east and seas 1-2 feet. Tomorrow we will have a 20 percent chance of an early morning shower, but tomorrow should be mostly nice, too. Early next week we will have 30 percent chances of morning showers, but we are watching for a tropical wave Thursday into the weekend. We are still watching if it starts rotating and turning into something like a tropical depression, but for right now it doesn’t look too bad. Winds should get up to 15 mph end of the week with 3-4 foot seas though. Have a great weekend!