Oct. 27, 2021: Good morning Roatan! If you keep up with the local weather stations on Wunderground, you will notice a new addition in Sandy Bay. Many thanks to Dave and the great folks at SOL for putting up a new weather station, which will be a great educational opportunity for the kids there.
Our weather will continue to be pretty boring today, with winds 15-20 mph and seas around 3 feet (1 meter) and clear skies. Winds get calmer tomorrow as our front approaches. Winds will be 5-12 mph and seas around 2 feet (.6 meter) and a small chance of rain, especially at night.

Friday we’ll see our winds turn around from the west at 10-15 mph and increasing chances of rain as the day goes along.

Friday night into Saturday morning will be our best chance of rain, and winds will switch to the north/northwest at 10-15 mph. Exactly how much rain depends on where our cold front stalls out.

This European model suggests the front will move to our south, giving us Sunday and Monday with comfortable temperature and dewpoints with no rain. The U.S. GFS model suggests that only Sunday morning will be cool and that the front will rebound and keep us wet Sunday into Monday. It’s hard to tell right now, but we’ll definitely enjoy some cooler conditions this weekend.

Oct. 26, 2021: Our clear and windy conditions will continue today and tomorrow. Winds will be 15-25 mph from the east and seas will be 2-4 feet (.6 – 1.3 meters). Winds should get calmer on Thursday in advance of our cold front, set to arrive Friday night into Saturday morning. We’ll have a chance of rain with this front, but it is not a sure thing. We should get north winds and noticeably cooler weather at least for the weekend. Have a great Tuesday! Oh, and I hope you like our new logo!

Oct. 25, 2021: The wind and surf are definitely up over what they have been the last few weeks. That will continue with winds 12-17 mph and seas 2-3 feet (.6-1 meter) during the day and 17-22 mph and seas 4 feet (1.3 meters) in the evenings. Skies will be mostly clear and no meaningful chance of rain. We’re still looking for a front to come through Saturday. There looks to be very little rain with the front, which would be the first time I’ve experienced that in 2 1/2 years on the island. Behind the front the humidity should drop, making the air feel cooler for Sunday.

Oct. 24, 2021: No rain the last 24 hours. At 8 a.m. we have some clouds and perhaps some showers east of Guanaja, but they seem to be falling apart.
The week ahead looks dry and windy. It’s TRW (Typical Roatan Weather) but with even lower rain chances. We’ll have winds from the east/southeast 12-17 during the day and 17-22 mph in the evenings, with seas 2-3 (.6 to 1 meter) during the day and perhaps getting up to 4 feet (1.3 meters) in the evening. That should continue until about Friday.

We are now getting good agreement that a cold front should actually pass through. That would mean chances of rain Friday and Saturday. If it passes through, by this time next week our temperatures should be a couple of degrees cooler, but where we would really notice it is in the humidity. Our dewpoints could get down to the mid 60s (17 or so C), which will feel quite comfortable. Have a good Sunday!

Oct. 23, 2021: The big news this morning is that we have a chance at our first “norther” of the season next weekend. The video shown here is the water vapor prediction in the European model. It shows the drier air, shown in green and blue, pushing the wetter air (yellow and red) out of the way about Oct. 31. The U.S. model thinks the front will stall just to our north and bring us good chances of rain, but none of the cool, dry air that comes when a front passes through. It is hard to say this far out, but in my experience, the more aggressive models (front will pass through) tend to be wrong and the more conservative models (front will stall) tend to be correct.

Today we will have TRW (Typical Roatan Weather) with east winds 10-15 mph and seas 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 meters) and about a 30 percent chance of a shower, especially in the evening.

Tomorrow we’ll have winds 12-17 mph and seas 2-3 feet (.6 to 1 meter) and a 20 percent chance of a shower.

After that, rain chances get really, really small and the wind sticks with us. Have a great day and Go Braves!

Oct. 23, 2021: Last night we had a classic storm scenario for the Bay Islands. It is the reason why typically the farther west you go, the rainier it gets. A storm with very high cloud tops and impressive lightning near the center formed near the mountainous north coast of the mainland and reached out to the north. It looks impressive on satellite and was — for the island of Utila. They got about 2.5 inches of rain over a four hour downpour. But you can see how it weakens as it moves north. Based on the satellite, you might be fooled into thinking that West Bay HAD to have gotten some rain from this, but it is our understanding that no one on the island of Roatan saw any rain from this.

Oct. 22, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! It seems like most folks mid-island got rain last evening, but those on the edges (West Bay to the west and Camp Bay to the east) missed out. We got a quarter inch on Lucy Point, which was about average for those who got rain.

The satellite image is from 9 a.m. today and shows the rain dancing around us.
Today we will continue to keep a decent chance of rain in the forecast, especially this evening and overnight. Winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters).

Tomorrow we will have similar winds and seas, but the rain chances will start decreasing.

By the first part of next we will have minimal or no chance of rain, so let’s hope we can get in on the action while we can. Brisker trade winds in the 20 mph range at seas at 3 feet (1 meter) also return next week after a long absence. Have a great Friday!

Oct. 21, 2021: There were scattered showers around last night. Sandy Bay reported .07 of an inch, Mud Hole got .04, Coral View .23, Politilly .15, Lucy Point .06, and even Camp Bay got in with .20, their first measurable rain in awhile.

Today we’ll have a pretty decent chance of seeing rain, especially in the overnight hours. Winds will be from the east at 12-17 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters). Tomorrow rain chances continue with calmer winds from the east/northeast 5-10 mph and seas at 1 foot (.3 meters).

This weekend the rain chances go down to around 20 percent overnights. Sunday will be the windier of the two days, with east winds 15-20 mph. Right now next week is looking pretty dry. Have a great Thursday!

Oct. 20, 2021: How much rain you got yesterday depends a lot on where you live, the further west the better. Larry Rapp got 1.4 inches in West Bay, most of it from a squall that passed through around 6 p.m. Sandy Bay got 1.29. On Lucy Point we only got about half an inch, and only about a tenth of an inch last night. Jimmy Andrade got only a trace in Camp Bay. This morning most of the rain has moved north of us.
It looks like we’re back in TRW (Typical Roatan Weather). We will have winds at 12-17 mph and seas at 2-3 feet (.6 – 1 meter) and about a 30 percent chance of a passing shower, especially in the evening. Friday and Saturday, winds and seas look a little calmer than average. If you do get a shower, there is also a decent chance you will hear some thunder. Have a great Wednesday!

Oct. 19, 2021: By 8 a.m., most of us have seen rain this morning. The most I saw was .88 of an inch in Politilly. Larry Rapp reports a slow, soaking rain of .8 of an inch. Jimmy Andrade in Camp Bay says he only got enough rain to get the dock wet.
The next 24 hours may be the wettest of the week. Models give us 1-2 inches by mid-morning tomorrow. As you can see in the satellite, there is a lot of moisture to our east. This will make its way over us over the next day. There will even be a chance of some thunder. We should start getting a little windier in the evenings, around 10-15 mph, but back down to 5-10 mph in the mornings. Watch out for a gust or two near squalls.

Rain chances will lessen on Thursday, but will still be around 30 percent. It looks like we are getting into our wet season and leaving completely dry weeks behind. Have a great Tuesday!