Welp, I normally do the forecast in the Facebook group first and then copy it here. Didn’t expect my forecast to break Facebook, but evidently it did. What’s worse is the loss of WhatsApp, which is the main method of communication for islanders. Somebody tell Mark Zuckerburg to turn everything off and turn it back on again.

The long and short of it is many on the east side of the island saw good rain yesterday and others saw some this morning. The west side hasn’t seen much, though they reported a little rain this morning, too.

Today and tomorrow we will continue to have calm winds and seas and scattered showers. But Wednesday evening into Thursday we will have a tropical wave pass through that should get everyone wet. Winds will also get up into the 20 mph range. The rain chance lingers into Friday. This weekend looks to be calm again. Have a great Monday.

Yesterday I pointed out that the current U.S. GFS model showed the possibility of a tropical storm, or perhaps even a hurricane, to our north for next weekend. This morning, as you can see in the model for Thursday night, it is still looking for tropical development, but it has lowered its intensity. That is the thing about these models. They are pretty good two days out. They are pretty bad a week out. But they are also pretty good at sensing that something is coming, just not how strong it will be. We’ll look at other models in the comments.

This is the European model for Wednesday night. Notice is shows widespread showers in our region, but does not show a rotating cyclone.

This is the German ICON model for Wednesday afternoon. This model shows widespread showers but does not show a rotating cyclone.

As for the near-term weather, we’ll have moderate east winds today at 12-17 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters).

Tomorrow there is a chance of a morning shower and winds and seas will be calm. Those calm conditions will continue into next week, with only a small chance of a shower early in the week. As we discussed above, the chance of rain goes up Wednesday and Thursday.

Oct. 1, 2021: Good morning and welcome to October. We’re officially recording .88 of an inch for the month, well under our average of 4.84. That is the least rain in September since 2009. We close out the dry season with 6.74 inches of rain since May 1, a period that on average should see 20.76 inches. As you can see from the chart, October is the start of the rainy season, but it won’t start out rainy.

Today will be mostly sunny with east winds 15-20 mph and 2-3 foot (.6 to 1 meter) seas. There will be a slight chance of an overnight shower.

Tomorrow winds will be 12-17 mph and 2 foot seas, with perhaps a little better chance of an overnight shower, around 30 percent.

Sunday we return to flat calm seas and winds. Each day through the week will have a small chance of a scattered shower, but there is an indication there may be some tropical development toward the end of the week, meaning we have some hope for rainier weather toward next weekend. Have a great Friday!

Sept. 30, 2021: Good morning Roatan! Today we have moderate winds and surf, perhaps half a meter at the reef. That may grow to around a meter by evening, as winds get up toward 20 mph for the first time in awhile. There’s no rain in the forecast for today as we close out September on a dry note.
Tomorrow will be very similar, with the exception that tomorrow night we will have a small chance of a scattered shower.
On Sunday, winds and seas calm again and it will be smooth sailing into next week. Rain chances should increase toward the end of next week. A cold front will get as far south as northern Yucatan. While it won’t get this far, it should push more moisture into our area, giving us better rain chances toward the end of next week.
In other news, Tropical Storm Victor has emerged off the African coast and it is now forecast to stay in the Atlantic, so there are no immediate tropical threats. Some models are indicated that a disturbance near Panama could move north and begin becoming tropical the weekend of Oct. 9, but that is far from certain. We’ll keep an eye on it. Have a great Thursday!

Sept. 29, 2021: Good morning, Roatan. The sea is up ever so slightly, meaning that for the first time in about a week I can tell where the reef is. I’m guessing that means maybe 1 foot seas. They may get up to 2 feet (.6 meters) as the afternoon gets a little windier, in the 12-17 mph range. Those conditions should continue through Friday. The weekend looks flat calm again, and we should see the return of small chances of showers starting Friday night. Have a great Wednesday!

Sept. 28, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! Today we continue a week with mostly clear skies, winds at 10-15 mph and seas at 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 meters). There isn’t much change until the weekend, when it looks like our chance for rain could go up.

The main news today is that those potential tropical storms off the coast of Africa look like they may turn north out to sea and away from the Caribbean. It is still early on, though, and we need to keep an eye on them. Have a great Tuesday.

Tropical update for Sept. 27, 2021: We have two storms coming off the African coast. Both have an 80 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next five days. It is always a little concerning when you see them this far south. Most models have these turning north and/or dissipating as they approach the Lesser Antilles, but this far out you never know. One model, the ICON from Germany, keeps them together as they approach the southern Lesser Antilles.. We’ll keep an eye on them.

Sept. 27, 2021: Good morning Roatan! Some of us saw a shower in the 3 o’clock hour this morning. We got .03 of an inch on Lucy Point, Coral View got .12, Sandy Bay got .01.

Today winds should get up around 10-15 mph but seas will stay fairly calm, perhaps getting up to 2 feet (.6 meter) this evening.

The week ahead looks pretty dry and the winds and seas, while not dead calm, will be pretty mild. Have a great week!

Sept. 26, 2021: We had hoped for some rain this morning and it doesn’t seem to be happening yet. But there is hope as the satellite map from 8:30 a.m. shows. Winds will be 10-15 mph later today with seas at 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 feet). The chance at scattered showers continues through tomorrow morning, but mostly the week ahead looks dry and calm. It may be a little windier than last week, especially in the evenings, but not much. Overall, still a good week to get out on the water. Have a great Sunday!

Sept. 25, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! Yesterday’s rain proved how different rainfall can be on the island, even across small distances. Mud Hole picked up half an inch, but just down the road in Sandy Bay, they only registered .04 of an inch. Coral View got a third of an inch, while Politilly got .01 and we got .03 on Lucy Point. Larry Rapp reported a tenth of an inch in a shower yesterday morning in West Bay.

Today is the day winds should start picking up, getting to 12-17 mph by afternoon with 2 foot seas. Overnight into tomorrow morning we should have a decent chance at rain.

Monday should have winds in the 10-15 mph range and seas 1-2 feet. The week ahead doesn’t look too windy, but not quite as dead calm as last week. Unfortunately it also looks mostly dry. Have a great weekend!