Oct. 30, 2021.

West Bay 4.40
Sandy Bay (SOL) 1.54
Sandy Bay .83
Coral View 4.78
First Bight 4.20
Politilly 1.62
Lucy Point 1.23
Camp Bay .66
The rain we got yesterday afternoon was some of the heaviest I’ve experienced on the island.

The next two days will be something for us to enjoy! Today we will have northwest winds 10-20 mph and partly cloudy skies. We can’t rule out a passing shower, especially this morning. Drier air will continue filtering in overnight making tomorrow quite comfortable. I’m very curious to see how low our dewpoints get, but most likely in the 60s.

Sunday and Monday will be sunny and comfortable, though Monday we will see those dewpoints coming up, making it more humid. Winds will be fairly calm Sunday, but on Monday we will have northeast winds 10-15 mph.

Tuesday the rain returns with a vengeance. I’m starting to worry a little about flooding potential on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some locations will likely get A LOT of rain those two days, the only question is where.

The graphic shows the forecast rain for those two days. But for now, enjoy the cool breeze!

Oct. 29, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! At 7 a.m., we have a storm off the west side of Roatan that is getting weaker. The storm is in advance of a cold front that is about the enter Belize this morning and will pass through the islands later today. Today we will have west winds at 10-15 mph that will become northwest winds this evening at 15-20 mph. Seas will be 2 feet (.6 meters). The chance of rain will be with us through the day under mostly cloudy skies, though there will be bits of sunshine here and there. The chance of a heavy downpour will be there through early Saturday morning, but the chance will be the greatest this evening. There will also be the chance of thunder.

Rain should clear out Saturday morning, leaving us pleasant conditions. Winds will be north/northwest at 15-20 mph and 2 foot (.6 meter) seas. Saturday and especially Sunday will be quite pleasant. Winds on Sunday should be calmer, with low humidity and pleasant temperatures.

Rain comes back on Tuesday and the rest of the week looks pretty rainy. Cooler temps and rainier weather — it’s a much delayed and much anticipated start to the rainy season, but better late than never.

Oct. 28, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! The cold front that has been racing across the United States the last several days is now in the Gulf of Mexico and is set to pass through on Friday night bringing us a cooler weekend before rebounding and giving us a good chance of rain on Tuesday. Today we’ll have mostly sunny skies and calmerOne of the things we are most looking forward to this weekend is getting some drier air in here. In the U.S. and Canada, the temperatures vary greatly. Where I lived before coming here, in Oklahoma, the temperature in the winter could get down around 0 degrees (-18 C) and in the summer could get as hot as 110 degrees (43 C). Here the temperature has never been recorded below 65 (18C) and a well-placed thermometer (in full shade) will rarely get much above 93 (34 C). Most of the time, our temperature is in the middle 80s (30 C) which is not oppressive. What makes it feel so hot? The humidity. A good way of expressing how humid it is, is by giving the dewpoint, which is the point at which the humidity would be 100 percent. Hot air can hold more water than cold air can, so humidity is more noticeable in hot temperatures. It keep your sweat from evaporating, which is one of the main ways your body cools itself.

This chart says that dewpoints above 75 are miserable. Thus far in October, the LOWEST dewpoint I have recorded is 75. Most of the time during the day it is over 80. the highest I’ve recorded is 86. The temperature can never go lower than the dewpoint. So on a typical day on the island, let’s say the temperature is 85 (30 C). Not so hot right? But let’s say the dewpoint is 81 (27 C), which is pretty average. That creates a heat index (how it feels on your skin) of 101 (38 C). Pretty hot. That’s why this weekend is so exciting. Many forecasts say our dewpoints will go down to 63 (17C). This chart calls that “sticky.” But if you live on the island you NEVER feel air that dry unless you are in air conditioning (one of the primary things an AC does is dry out your house, which is as important as cooling it). Enjoy!

Oct. 28, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! The cold front that has been racing across the United States the last several days is now in the Gulf of Mexico and is set to pass through on Friday night bringing us a cooler weekend before rebounding and giving us a good chance of rain on Tuesday.

Today we’ll have mostly sunny skies and calmer winds, from the east at 7-12 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters).

Tomorrow the winds will switch around to the west at 15-20 mph and we will have increasing clouds throughout the day and an increasing chance of showers.

Our best chance for rain comes Friday night into Saturday morning. The rain should clear out Saturday and we should have noticeably cooler weather. Our highs should be around 80 (26 C) and lows around 76 (24 C), but the big difference will be the drier air Sunday and Monday which should make things very comfortable. Later today I will talk about dewpoints and the effect they have on how hot it feels. Have a great Thursday!

Oct. 27, 2021: Good morning Roatan! If you keep up with the local weather stations on Wunderground, you will notice a new addition in Sandy Bay. Many thanks to Dave and the great folks at SOL for putting up a new weather station, which will be a great educational opportunity for the kids there.
Our weather will continue to be pretty boring today, with winds 15-20 mph and seas around 3 feet (1 meter) and clear skies. Winds get calmer tomorrow as our front approaches. Winds will be 5-12 mph and seas around 2 feet (.6 meter) and a small chance of rain, especially at night.

Friday we’ll see our winds turn around from the west at 10-15 mph and increasing chances of rain as the day goes along.

Friday night into Saturday morning will be our best chance of rain, and winds will switch to the north/northwest at 10-15 mph. Exactly how much rain depends on where our cold front stalls out.

This European model suggests the front will move to our south, giving us Sunday and Monday with comfortable temperature and dewpoints with no rain. The U.S. GFS model suggests that only Sunday morning will be cool and that the front will rebound and keep us wet Sunday into Monday. It’s hard to tell right now, but we’ll definitely enjoy some cooler conditions this weekend.

Oct. 26, 2021: Our clear and windy conditions will continue today and tomorrow. Winds will be 15-25 mph from the east and seas will be 2-4 feet (.6 – 1.3 meters). Winds should get calmer on Thursday in advance of our cold front, set to arrive Friday night into Saturday morning. We’ll have a chance of rain with this front, but it is not a sure thing. We should get north winds and noticeably cooler weather at least for the weekend. Have a great Tuesday! Oh, and I hope you like our new logo!

Oct. 25, 2021: The wind and surf are definitely up over what they have been the last few weeks. That will continue with winds 12-17 mph and seas 2-3 feet (.6-1 meter) during the day and 17-22 mph and seas 4 feet (1.3 meters) in the evenings. Skies will be mostly clear and no meaningful chance of rain. We’re still looking for a front to come through Saturday. There looks to be very little rain with the front, which would be the first time I’ve experienced that in 2 1/2 years on the island. Behind the front the humidity should drop, making the air feel cooler for Sunday.

Oct. 24, 2021: No rain the last 24 hours. At 8 a.m. we have some clouds and perhaps some showers east of Guanaja, but they seem to be falling apart.
The week ahead looks dry and windy. It’s TRW (Typical Roatan Weather) but with even lower rain chances. We’ll have winds from the east/southeast 12-17 during the day and 17-22 mph in the evenings, with seas 2-3 (.6 to 1 meter) during the day and perhaps getting up to 4 feet (1.3 meters) in the evening. That should continue until about Friday.

We are now getting good agreement that a cold front should actually pass through. That would mean chances of rain Friday and Saturday. If it passes through, by this time next week our temperatures should be a couple of degrees cooler, but where we would really notice it is in the humidity. Our dewpoints could get down to the mid 60s (17 or so C), which will feel quite comfortable. Have a good Sunday!

Oct. 23, 2021: The big news this morning is that we have a chance at our first “norther” of the season next weekend. The video shown here is the water vapor prediction in the European model. It shows the drier air, shown in green and blue, pushing the wetter air (yellow and red) out of the way about Oct. 31. The U.S. model thinks the front will stall just to our north and bring us good chances of rain, but none of the cool, dry air that comes when a front passes through. It is hard to say this far out, but in my experience, the more aggressive models (front will pass through) tend to be wrong and the more conservative models (front will stall) tend to be correct.

Today we will have TRW (Typical Roatan Weather) with east winds 10-15 mph and seas 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 meters) and about a 30 percent chance of a shower, especially in the evening.

Tomorrow we’ll have winds 12-17 mph and seas 2-3 feet (.6 to 1 meter) and a 20 percent chance of a shower.

After that, rain chances get really, really small and the wind sticks with us. Have a great day and Go Braves!

Oct. 23, 2021: Last night we had a classic storm scenario for the Bay Islands. It is the reason why typically the farther west you go, the rainier it gets. A storm with very high cloud tops and impressive lightning near the center formed near the mountainous north coast of the mainland and reached out to the north. It looks impressive on satellite and was — for the island of Utila. They got about 2.5 inches of rain over a four hour downpour. But you can see how it weakens as it moves north. Based on the satellite, you might be fooled into thinking that West Bay HAD to have gotten some rain from this, but it is our understanding that no one on the island of Roatan saw any rain from this.