Oct. 24, 2021: No rain the last 24 hours. At 8 a.m. we have some clouds and perhaps some showers east of Guanaja, but they seem to be falling apart.
The week ahead looks dry and windy. It’s TRW (Typical Roatan Weather) but with even lower rain chances. We’ll have winds from the east/southeast 12-17 during the day and 17-22 mph in the evenings, with seas 2-3 (.6 to 1 meter) during the day and perhaps getting up to 4 feet (1.3 meters) in the evening. That should continue until about Friday.

We are now getting good agreement that a cold front should actually pass through. That would mean chances of rain Friday and Saturday. If it passes through, by this time next week our temperatures should be a couple of degrees cooler, but where we would really notice it is in the humidity. Our dewpoints could get down to the mid 60s (17 or so C), which will feel quite comfortable. Have a good Sunday!

Oct. 23, 2021: The big news this morning is that we have a chance at our first “norther” of the season next weekend. The video shown here is the water vapor prediction in the European model. It shows the drier air, shown in green and blue, pushing the wetter air (yellow and red) out of the way about Oct. 31. The U.S. model thinks the front will stall just to our north and bring us good chances of rain, but none of the cool, dry air that comes when a front passes through. It is hard to say this far out, but in my experience, the more aggressive models (front will pass through) tend to be wrong and the more conservative models (front will stall) tend to be correct.

Today we will have TRW (Typical Roatan Weather) with east winds 10-15 mph and seas 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 meters) and about a 30 percent chance of a shower, especially in the evening.

Tomorrow we’ll have winds 12-17 mph and seas 2-3 feet (.6 to 1 meter) and a 20 percent chance of a shower.

After that, rain chances get really, really small and the wind sticks with us. Have a great day and Go Braves!

Oct. 23, 2021: Last night we had a classic storm scenario for the Bay Islands. It is the reason why typically the farther west you go, the rainier it gets. A storm with very high cloud tops and impressive lightning near the center formed near the mountainous north coast of the mainland and reached out to the north. It looks impressive on satellite and was — for the island of Utila. They got about 2.5 inches of rain over a four hour downpour. But you can see how it weakens as it moves north. Based on the satellite, you might be fooled into thinking that West Bay HAD to have gotten some rain from this, but it is our understanding that no one on the island of Roatan saw any rain from this.

Oct. 22, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! It seems like most folks mid-island got rain last evening, but those on the edges (West Bay to the west and Camp Bay to the east) missed out. We got a quarter inch on Lucy Point, which was about average for those who got rain.

The satellite image is from 9 a.m. today and shows the rain dancing around us.
Today we will continue to keep a decent chance of rain in the forecast, especially this evening and overnight. Winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters).

Tomorrow we will have similar winds and seas, but the rain chances will start decreasing.

By the first part of next we will have minimal or no chance of rain, so let’s hope we can get in on the action while we can. Brisker trade winds in the 20 mph range at seas at 3 feet (1 meter) also return next week after a long absence. Have a great Friday!

Oct. 21, 2021: There were scattered showers around last night. Sandy Bay reported .07 of an inch, Mud Hole got .04, Coral View .23, Politilly .15, Lucy Point .06, and even Camp Bay got in with .20, their first measurable rain in awhile.

Today we’ll have a pretty decent chance of seeing rain, especially in the overnight hours. Winds will be from the east at 12-17 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters). Tomorrow rain chances continue with calmer winds from the east/northeast 5-10 mph and seas at 1 foot (.3 meters).

This weekend the rain chances go down to around 20 percent overnights. Sunday will be the windier of the two days, with east winds 15-20 mph. Right now next week is looking pretty dry. Have a great Thursday!

Oct. 20, 2021: How much rain you got yesterday depends a lot on where you live, the further west the better. Larry Rapp got 1.4 inches in West Bay, most of it from a squall that passed through around 6 p.m. Sandy Bay got 1.29. On Lucy Point we only got about half an inch, and only about a tenth of an inch last night. Jimmy Andrade got only a trace in Camp Bay. This morning most of the rain has moved north of us.
It looks like we’re back in TRW (Typical Roatan Weather). We will have winds at 12-17 mph and seas at 2-3 feet (.6 – 1 meter) and about a 30 percent chance of a passing shower, especially in the evening. Friday and Saturday, winds and seas look a little calmer than average. If you do get a shower, there is also a decent chance you will hear some thunder. Have a great Wednesday!

Oct. 19, 2021: By 8 a.m., most of us have seen rain this morning. The most I saw was .88 of an inch in Politilly. Larry Rapp reports a slow, soaking rain of .8 of an inch. Jimmy Andrade in Camp Bay says he only got enough rain to get the dock wet.
The next 24 hours may be the wettest of the week. Models give us 1-2 inches by mid-morning tomorrow. As you can see in the satellite, there is a lot of moisture to our east. This will make its way over us over the next day. There will even be a chance of some thunder. We should start getting a little windier in the evenings, around 10-15 mph, but back down to 5-10 mph in the mornings. Watch out for a gust or two near squalls.

Rain chances will lessen on Thursday, but will still be around 30 percent. It looks like we are getting into our wet season and leaving completely dry weeks behind. Have a great Tuesday!

Oct. 18, 2021: It seems everyone got some rain over the last 24 hours. Mark Krueger reports half an inch in Utila. Larry Rapp checks in with half an inch in West Bay. Even Camp Bay finally got in on the action. Jimmy Andrade says they finally picked up a tenth of an inch. We got half an inch on Lucy Point and that seems pretty common across the island.

Good chances of rain continue today, tonight and tomorrow with forecast models still putting the total at around 2 more inches. Winds and seas will stay pretty calm at 5-10 mph and seas at 1 foot (.3 meters).

Starting Wednesday the winds will come up a little, perhaps 12-17 mph in the evenings with 2 foot (.6 meter) seas. Starting Thursday, rain chances will diminish to around 30 percent each day. Have a great week!

Oct. 17, 2021: We begin our morning with some photos of the squall that hit Jimmy Andrade in Camp Bay. Around 8:30 this morning we picked up .06 of an inch on Lucy Point after getting .28 yesterday. Most locations islandwide got between a tenth and half an inch yesterday. Feel free to let us know in comments.

A cold front will stall near the Yucatan tonight, trapping unstable air in our area and giving us good chances of rain this week. The rain chances will be 30-40 percent during midday and evening hours and 60-70 percent overnight and in the mornings. Most models estimate 2 inches through Wednesday. Winds and seas remain calm through Wednesday. Winds may pick up a little starting Thursday.

Oct. 16, 2021: Rain is back in the news! Last night we got .39 of an inch around midnight. Mud Hole got .13 and Utila is experiencing a shower this morning. Today we’ll have scattered showers, perhaps a 50 percent chance. Winds and seas will remain relatively calm for the entire forecast period.

Rain chances are in the forecast each day this week, perhaps at their highest on Wednesday and Thursday. But a shower is possible at any time. The clouds will keep our temperatures cooler than they have been. We may have some mornings around 76 degrees (24 celsius) toward midweek. That will feel nice. Have a great, and hopefully wet, weekend!