October 21, 2025

Good morning Bay Islands. Our photo of the day comes from Lisa Hopkins Baker at Turquoise Bay.

Our potential tropical storm near Aruba looks a little stronger this morning and US military planes will be going to inspect it.

Let’s start with our weather this morning. At 7 a.m. we see some rain off to our east. Guanaja has picked up .02 as of 7 a.m. We will continue to deal with some scattered showers, but we shouldn’t get rained out completely. Winds continue to be quite mild and seas are around 1 foot in most locations.

Here is the current location of our storm, near Aruba. The projected path is a little further north this morning. Over the next few days it is expected to become a tropical storm (it probably already is a tropical depression) and it will slowly move toward Jamaica and Haiti. Most computers have it moving well to our northeast and away from us. The major models GFS, Euro and ICON agree on this.

There is one model that has it moving closer toward us. This is the Canadian model. It has a tropical storm building to our east before finally moving away from us a week from today. This goes to show how uncertain these computer models are. Is it possible we are affected by a tropical storm over the next week? Yes. Is it likely? No. We will continue to keep an eye on it.

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Tides continue to run on the high side. Have a great Tuesday!

Edit:

We now officially have a Tropical Storm Melissa. As far as I can remember, I think this may be our first named storm in the Caribbean. The main thing to know is this storm is expected to turn north EVENTUALLY, but there is still a lot of uncertainty about its track. The further west it goes, the stronger it will get. Right now I would say this has an 80 percent chance of turning north before having any effect on us, but that means there is something like a 20 percent chance it comes close enough to us to affect us.

This is Google’s AI weather forecast “spaghetti” map of the possible directions this storm takes. You will see the vast majority have it wobbling a bit, but eventually turning north over Haiti/Domincan Republic, though a few have it coming further west. Almost none have it making a direct hit on us, though there is one the has it wobbling for two weeks before coming our way, but that is one model out of about 100. So chances are VERY good that we aren’t affected in a big way. We’ll keep an eye on it.