July 3, 2024

Good morning Bay Islands. Hurricane Beryl is about to strike Jamaica this afternoon and I’m afraid Kingston will take a direct hit from its 145 mph winds. Beryl is somewhat weaker than it was at its peak of 165 mph. We will start seeing minor effects this afternoon with a switch in our winds to the northeast around 15 mph. Tonight and tomorrow morning looks quite calm. What happens during the day tomorrow has a lot to do with exactly where Beryl passes to our north and how weak it gets.

Let’s start by taking a look at Beryl. You will notice it is hard to see an eye anymore. This is due to the wind shear we have been talking about for quite awhile, but the storm has been holding up remarkably well. That will be bad news for Jamaica today, especially Kingston.

Let’s talk about exactly where the storm is going. This is the GFS forecast for 8 p.m. tomorrow. It has the center of the storm moving south of Cozumel/Cancun. You will notice the high winds are mostly on the north side of the storm. If this happens, our winds will be from the west but fairly light, maybe 10 mph. Our rainfall will also be less, maybe a quarter to half an inch.

This is the Euro for midnight tomorrow night. It has the storm slightly further south and slightly stronger. If this happens, we will have west winds at 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. Seas tomorrow night and Friday morning would be around 6 feet, especially on the north and west sides. The Euro gives us about an inch of rain, maybe a little more.

So to summarize the forecast, partly cloudy today with increasing clouds into the evening. Scattered showers tonight through early Friday morning. There may be periods of 30 mph winds, especially tomorrow night. Most of Friday should be dry.

I made fun of the storm behind Beryl yesterday, but it actually looks better today. The NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center still gives it only a 20 percent chance of forming, but a lot of models are picking up on it. If it continues to survive, there is a possibility it could give us a better chance of rain Sunday into Monday.

I want to thank those who have reached out with words of appreciation for our service and for several coffees I have gotten at buymeacoffee.com/roatan. I also want to mention that any businesses who would like to sponsor at the $50 a month level, WhatsApp me at 94754406 for details.

We have quite a low tide at 2:10 p.m. and we are nearing new moon stage tonight. Have a great Wednesday!