October 25, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. As of 6:40 a.m. the west side has gotten very little rain and the east side has gotten a lot.

Most of the rain on the east side came from the first storm you see forming around 2 a.m. the rain that followed missed us mostly to the north. There is another round coming, that is getting close to Guanaja at 6:47 a.m.

Today should be a day of lots of clouds and scattered showers. Our islands have missed a lot of the rain that’s been around us the last couple of days. That’s what happens when you’re small islands in a big sea. But if you get under one of these downpours, it can add up quick, as it did this morning with almost 2 inches in Punta Blanca.
Tomorrow we will also have scattered showers, but probably fewer than today. Friday into the weekend is looking pretty good, with low chances of rain. Winds will continue to be from the east around 15 mph and seas around 3 feet through Saturday. Sunday and Monday seas should calm to 1-2 feet.

There is a good chance of another norther mid to late week next week, though there is disagreement about how strong it will be. We’ll keep an eye on it.

There is a little bit of uncertainty in the forecast because of the tropical disturbance that moved across Nicaragua yesterday. It is now in the Pacific and generally expected to move west. But some models show it drifting north, and if it does, it could increase our rain chances Friday into Saturday.

Speaking of what we expect to happen, I want to talk about Hurricane Otis, which slammed Acapulco, Mexico with 165 mph winds last night. It is the strongest storm to ever make landfall in the eastern Pacific. This chart shows what the computer models forecast, barely a tropical storm. In one night it went from tropical storm to Cat4-5 and moved inland in a way that was also unpredicted. Computer models are usually pretty good at least getting close to what’s going to happen with storms, but this is the worst miss I’ve ever seen. Say what you will about our climate, but I think it is a fact that it is getting more and more unpredictable.