Good morning Bay Islands. We wake up this morning to east winds around 10 mph and seas at 2 feet both north and south sides. Those winds and seas should get calmer as the day goes along. We can clearly see the norther (cold front, frente frio) to our north, just south of Miami and extending west to just north of Yucatan.
On the closeup satellite we can see a small area of clouds south of Flowers Bay. It is possible someone might see a shower this morning, but the chances are small. Rain chances get better as we go into the evening. Tomorrow, the winds turn around to the north. Rain chances are good for Monday, around 60 percent, and winds will by Monday evening will be from the north 15-20 mph. Monday night into Tuesday morning we will have our strongest north winds, around 20 mph and seas on the north side 4-5 feet. Tuesday and Wednesday should be quite rainy and fresh, and Thursday rain should decrease a little, down to a 40 percent chance.
Here are three estimates for rainfall through Thursday. On the left is the US GFS, in the middle the Euro, on the right is the ICON from Germany. They are all very similar in giving us 3-4 inches of rain, but you will notice the farther north you go, the less rain you get. That is because a lot of the rain is created because the north winds hit the mountain of the mainland and are pushed up into rain clouds. We could very easily get 1-2 inches this week, but we could also very easily get 5-6 inches. (Remember, 25 mm = 1 inch).
I have seen in my four and a half years on the island that sometimes these northers don’t produce as much rain as forecast, so I thought I would try to find a model that gave me reason to believe we might be overestimating the rainfall. This is the only one I could find. It is the British model and it is not generally as reliable as the three models above. It forecasts two inches of rain for us, but notice how the rainfall drops off to almost nothing to our north. In this scenario we would get cooler temps and north winds but less rain, perhaps 1-2 inches. It is just a reminder that in weather forecasting, nothing is certain. Be prepared for everything. Have a great Sunday!
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